01 Jul 2015, 12:46pm by Aaron Schatz
This is a two-part series for ESPN Insider that's actually part of a four-part series. For the first time, we've done some work on estimated snap-weighted age for 2015, based on projected starters, last year's snap counts, and a regression that predicts snaps for rookies based on draft pick and position. The result is a look at which offenses are getting older this year (Indianapolis, Green Bay), which are getting younger (St. Louis, Tennessee), and what that means for how good those teams might be this season.
3 comments, Last at 01 Jul 2015, 1:44pm by Perfundle
24 Jun 2015, 01:35pm by Andrew Healy
Andrew Healy looks at where the Patriots rank among the best offenses in NFL history over a ten-year span, and what happened to those offenses in Year 11. Will a change in QB aging trends make it easier for the Pats to stay successful?
1 comment, Last at 25 Jun 2015, 1:34pm by Noah Arkadia
17 Jun 2015, 11:25am by Aaron Schatz
Todd Gurley could be the best running back since Adrian Peterson, but it won't matter. In the modern NFL, you simply can't build your offense around the running back. You build around the quarterback.
38 comments, Last at 30 Jun 2015, 10:51am by BDC
03 Jun 2015, 12:24pm by Andrew Healy
How do Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans compare to the best wide-receiver duos that first-year starting quarterbacks have had throughout NFL history? Is there any sense that having two tall, successful wide receivers will help Jameis Winston develop?
8 comments, Last at 08 Jun 2015, 10:57am by ChrisS
29 May 2015, 10:19am by Scott Kacsmar
Peyton Manning is entering 2015 with arguably the least accomplished offensive line of his career. While that might spell doom for some teams, Manning has made a career out of making every offensive line combination work out. Can he do it one more time?
53 comments, Last at 02 Jun 2015, 8:09pm by tuluse
12 May 2015, 01:10pm by Aaron Schatz
As I did a year ago, I've done a "quick version" of 2015 projections for ESPN Insider. These are not the official projections that will appear in FOA 2015. They simply regress DVOA to the mean for offense, defense, and special teams each separately, then make some small changes based on injury rates last year and certain personnel changes. The NFC projections are about as expected, except perhaps in the NFC South where we see both Atlanta and New Orleans rebounding. Easy schedules are a big help.
25 comments, Last at 13 May 2015, 11:39pm by Will Allen
11 May 2015, 02:39pm by Aaron Schatz
As I did a year ago, I've done a "quick version" of 2015 projections for ESPN Insider. These are not the official projections that will appear in FOA 2015. They simply regress DVOA to the mean for offense, defense, and special teams each separately, then make some small changes based on injury rates last year and certain personnel changes. The big story out of the AFC projections: Miami, which was pretty good last year except on special teams, should challenge New England for the AFC East title.
23 comments, Last at 18 May 2015, 3:55pm by mehllageman56
21 Apr 2015, 08:42pm by Scott Kacsmar
We look at our early DVOA projections for 2015 to see which teams are impacted most by the schedule. Who decided the Jets only needed to play six true road games in 2015?
2 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 2:32pm by RickD
20 Apr 2015, 11:56am by Andrew Healy
Andrew Healy has developed a new edition of Football Outsiders' QB projection system, now called QBASE. The new system looks at overall college performance, not just completion rate, adjusted for opponents and for the strength of your teammates. This ESPN Insider piece gives our projections for 2014, which are surprisingly high on Brett Hundley and low on Jameis Winston. (They are also high on Marcus Mariota, which may not be a surprise.) Another article here on FO next week will detail the differences between QBASE and the old LCF, and look at the new system's historic performance.
9 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 5:47pm by Grendel13G
09 Apr 2015, 11:35am by Aaron Schatz
Following in the footsteps of ESPN's NBA coverage, ESPN Insider has put together a group of writers called the ESPN Insider NFL Front Office that mocks the conversations that would take place in a real front office. Mark Dominik serves as general manager, Herm Edwards as head coach, and Louis Riddick as director of pro personnel. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay take turns serving as director of college scouting, and yours truly holds the role of analytics department. This week we've been discussing what we would do with the top five picks in the draft were we running those five teams.
7 comments, Last at 09 May 2015, 4:06pm by SarahStewart732