20 Jan 2016, 03:27pm by Scott Kacsmar
Over at ESPN Insider, a look at Tom Brady and Peyton Manning's playoff records. So often wins and losses come down to one play, and the difference between Brady's 22-8 and Manning's 12-13 is heavily determined by six specific plays where neither quarterback was even on the field: four field goals and two plays by defenders named Moore. We'll be expanding this article with a look at similar plays for other current top quarterbacks in a second article on Football Outsiders next week.
233 comments, Last at 26 Jan 2016, 4:28pm by Eleutheria
14 Jan 2016, 02:30pm by Andrew Healy
Get a bit of a preview of tomorrow's Football Outsiders playoff previews, as Andrew Healy looks at some of the matchups that could favor Kansas City against New England despite the loss of Jeremy Maclin.
8 comments, Last at 15 Jan 2016, 10:51pm by mehllageman56
13 Jan 2016, 01:43pm by Aaron Schatz
In an ESPN Insider column today, I looked at DVOA over the last four seasons, including the playoffs. FO readers know, of course, that Seattle is No. 1, but can you guess which other franchises have been among the top ten over the four-year span? You'll find out that Carolina has been better than you probably remember, and that Detroit has been surprisingly consistent in its mediocrity.
6 comments, Last at 16 Jan 2016, 3:38pm by johnmatthewsinla
06 Jan 2016, 05:41pm by Aaron Schatz
I went through and looked at some lesser-known players who could make a big impact in the postseason. Well, lesser-known to most fans. I'm sure FO readers have heard of most of these guys: Tyler Lockett, David Johnson, James White, Kawann Short, Whitney Mercilus, Ryan Shazier, Ron Parker, and (as the next Justin Bethel/Matthew Slater on punt coverage) Jeff Janis.
10 Dec 2015, 01:46pm by Aaron Schatz
A closer look at what's changed since Week 5 for the Kansas City Chiefs, who actually have the highest DVOA in the league (50.3%) for Weeks 5-13.
2 comments, Last at 11 Dec 2015, 9:37am by FlippingADollar
09 Dec 2015, 02:20pm by Aaron Schatz
Which NFL coaches are best at handling key in-game situations such as challenges and fourth-down gambles? Using a metric called Strategic Score, Andrew Healy constructs the list. Ron Rivera is No. 1 for 2015.
16 comments, Last at 10 Dec 2015, 3:41pm by Kevin from Philly
20 Nov 2015, 01:28pm by Aaron Schatz
Here's an article on ESPN Insider looking at which teams are likely to see regression in the second half because of elements of the game that are either out of their control or simply non-predictive. Among the items analyzed: performance in close games, fumble recovery rates, dropped passes by opponents, dropped interceptions, and performance by opposing kickers.
05 Nov 2015, 03:05pm by Andrew Healy
This ESPN Insider piece looks at each of the 7-0 teams and their chances of going unbeaten through each of the remaining games on the schedule. The Patriots' have the best chance, but it's important to remember that three of these teams' toughest games of the year will come in the postseason. So New England's 7.1 percent chance of going 16-0 only works out to a 2.3 percent chance of going 19-0.
04 Nov 2015, 02:05pm by Aaron Schatz
Today's ESPN Insider feature looks at the teams with the toughest and easiest remaining schedules. Rather than simply using average DVOA of remaining opponents, we ranked schedules by going through game-by-game to figure out how often an average (0.0%) DVOA team would be expected to win each game, accounting for both the opponent and whether the game was on the road or at home.
3 comments, Last at 04 Nov 2015, 7:57pm by Anon Ymous
29 Oct 2015, 03:40pm by Aaron Schatz
This ESPN feature looks at the divisional races using our playoff odds simulation. There don't look to be a lot of competitive races this year, but there's a good one between the Falcons and Panthers, plus the scrum in the NFC East, and whatever you call the mess in the AFC South -- where 10 percent of our simulations end up with a 6-10 team winning the division.