27 Aug 2014, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz
ESPN Insider asked me to give Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams along with a sentence or two about what a championship season would look like for each franchise. These are updated odds that account for the Sam Bradford injury and numerous preseason changes, although not yesterday's New England-Tampa Bay trade. Denver leads at 16.9 percent.
26 Aug 2014, 05:14pm by Scott Kacsmar
At Insider we looked at the 10 teams who finished 4-12 or worse in the highest percentage of our simulations used for projections in Football Outsiders Almanac 2014. Oakland has missed out by the smallest of margins the last two years, but the Raiders lead the way this year.
1 comment, Last at 26 Aug 2014, 8:07pm by herewegobrowniesherewego
21 Aug 2014, 12:06pm by Scott Kacsmar
Is the NFC West the best division ever? Winning percentage and point differential call the 2013 NFC West the best division in the eight-division era, but DVOA actually begs one as being a little bit better: the 2004 AFC East.
1 comment, Last at 21 Aug 2014, 11:21pm by mehllageman56
19 Aug 2014, 12:56pm by Aaron Schatz
This piece for ESPN Insider looks through our various rookie projection systems not just for guys with strong projections, but for guys who will also have the opportunity to be very important this season.
4 comments, Last at 20 Aug 2014, 9:13pm by PaddyPat
12 Aug 2014, 01:48pm by Aaron Schatz
Everyone thinks of San Francisco as one of the NFL's most dominant teams, so why does FOA 2014 only give them a 51 percent chance to make the playoffs this year? In an ESPN Insider article, I explain a bit about why projections are so grouped around 8-8, and why the 49ers' defense may not be as good as we think -- at least through the end of October.
13 comments, Last at 22 Dec 2014, 9:38pm by dongdong31
08 Aug 2014, 11:17am by Scott Kacsmar
Scott Kacsmar explains why an aging and hurting Tony Romo combined with a still-poor defense means another year of missing the playoffs in Dallas.
1 comment, Last at 08 Aug 2014, 1:16pm by Sisyphus
05 Aug 2014, 12:12pm by Aaron Schatz
Part II of II. We actually measured here the chances of first-place teams dropping to 6-10 or worse, not their chances of finishing fourth this year, which does explain how Indianapolis can end up second on this list. Let's be honest -- even if they somehow flop to 6-10, the Colts aren't finishing last in that division. The clearly most likely first-to-worst team is Carolina.
9 comments, Last at 06 Aug 2014, 1:53pm by morganja
04 Aug 2014, 12:26pm by Tom Gower
Part I of II today at ESPN Insider. Based on FO simulations, which team is most likely to go from fourth place to first place this season? The surprising answer is Buffalo, followed by Houston and Tampa Bay. In last place among the last place teams: Oakland.
29 comments, Last at 06 Aug 2014, 2:46pm by mehllageman56
01 Aug 2014, 01:53pm by Rivers McCown
How much can one franchise quarterback do when saddled with a bad roster in a bad division? We're about to find out. (Well, again.)
31 Jul 2014, 11:19am by Aaron Schatz
We simulated the season moving Arizona around to every division to see what happened. The result? Their Super Bowl odds would go up 60 percent in the AFC South. It's also good these days to live in the AFC North and NFC East. The NFC West, not so much.
2 comments, Last at 31 Jul 2014, 3:14pm by willybhu