Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Oct 2008

ESPN Numbers Crunching: Week 7

Here is our weekly look at NFL matchups using Football Outsiders stats. This week's prediction: big weeks for Dhani Jones, Devin Hester, and Wes Welker.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 16 Oct 2008

8 comments, Last at 17 Oct 2008, 1:00pm by Temo

Comments

1
by Jeremy (not verified) :: Thu, 10/16/2008 - 10:40pm

FIRST!!

2
by deyton :: Fri, 10/17/2008 - 12:31am

I'm glad to see the "resistible force and movable object" in the right order.

3
by mawbrew :: Fri, 10/17/2008 - 7:55am

What's happened to Dre Bly in Denver? Did he age overnight or is he just a bad fit for whatever they're doing defensively?

8
by Temo :: Fri, 10/17/2008 - 1:00pm

Or maybe he's no longer the best player on the defense (as he was in Detroit), so teams are throwing at him more and exposing him.

I don't know the real reason, but that's a possibility. I know I always thought he was a good corner when he was playing for Detroit.

4
by RowdyRoddyPiper :: Fri, 10/17/2008 - 12:08pm

This is what I love about this site. If you watched sports center, read pro-football talk and other sites, you'd assume that human battering ram Marion Barber would make it a lock that the Cowboys convert in 3rd and 4th and short situations as well as short and goal situations. Apparently that is not so. Off to see if I can figure out an explanation. Anyone who watches more Cowboys football than I do have any ideas?

5
by Temo :: Fri, 10/17/2008 - 12:50pm

Here's your idea: There were talking about Dallas being unable to PREVENT power run conversions vs. the Rams' inability to CONVERT power run conversion. Not the other way around.

The Cowboys offense actually ranks 5th in the league in converting power run situations. Although more of that is due to Leonard Davis than Marion Barber.

6
by 96mnc (not verified) :: Fri, 10/17/2008 - 12:50pm

It seems like the Cowboys have not been in a lot of short and goal situations this year.

Also, on 3rd and 2 (which I consider short), the Boys seem to come out in shotgun pass formations rather than more traditional running sets.

My one criticism of Garrett is that the draw has become the primary running play of choice over the last two weeks. You are reducing the effectiveness of a big physical line like Dallas' when you don't allow them to come off the ball and punish the defensive line with drive blocking.

7
by Temo :: Fri, 10/17/2008 - 12:58pm

I would wager a lot of money that they have a much higher DVOA on draws, misdirections, and counter plays (all of which Garrett has run plenty this year) than on stretchs, dives, and off-tackle runs.

(Also, the outside pitch plays- esp. to the right side- seem to be working as well, though it's not a misdirection play or a straight power-blocking play, so I didn't include it).