Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Nov 2009

ESPN: Week 11 Numbers Crunching

Among the tidbits in this week's Numbers Crunching: The Colts run best where they run least, the Patriots excel on second-and-short, and Adrian Peterson gets ready to make the Sunday night highlights. Repeatedly.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 19 Nov 2009

1 comment, Last at 20 Nov 2009, 11:05pm by Quality Control

Comments

1
by Quality Control (not verified) :: Fri, 11/20/2009 - 11:05pm

About the Colts' defensive road DVOA: the games the Colts have played on the road were against the Rams, Titans, Cards, and Dolphins. Outside the Dolphins game, the Colts were very much in control by the mid-point of the second quarter, nor did they ever look back. Is this accounted for in the numbers? Also, the Colts have played 4 games since the bye, only one of them (against the Rams) on the road. Hard to believe that game against the Rams could have hurt the Colts' defensive DVOA very much, which means all the road numbers belong to the first 5 games of the season, to which an overweight Ed Johnson contributed some mediocre help from the undertackle spot.

Therefore my question is, how relevant are the Colts' road defensive DVOA numbers to a Week 11 game against the Ravens?

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