Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

17 Nov 2008

2008 Quick Reads: Week 11

This week's Quick Reads features the top DYAR performance of the year so far, from a name you definitely won't expect.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 17 Nov 2008

21 comments, Last at 18 Nov 2008, 12:08pm by Tball

Comments

1
by Anonymous please? (not verified) :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 6:39pm

Just wondering, how did Ryan Grant do? He was stopped for no gain sometimes, but also had some pretty good gains of 6-10 yards, against a top run D.

2
by are-tee :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 6:54pm

"Continue to make fun of Pennington's arm at your own peril. He was 4-of-4 on passes that went 15 yards or more in the air."

Pennington has never had trouble throwing the ball far, he just doesn't throw it very fast.

"It's hard to understate how impressive Jacobs' performance in the first quarter was"

It's even harder to overstate it. Which means he did good.

13
by El Nino Meon (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 10:06am

"Which means he did good"

Thats a shame. If you're going to nitpick a simple error it makes sense to make sure you don't make one of your own

17
by are-tee :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 11:29am

Sorry, I meant to say "he done good".

3
by tally :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 7:25pm

I wonder how TO did. He was the target on both of Romo's INTs.

4
by DRed (not verified) :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 8:15pm

Wisened?

5
by Matt S (not verified) :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 8:32pm

I like the idea of increasing the RB and WR lists from five, at least to ten, hopefully more. If every QB can be listed, then this doesn't seem like too much to ask. Surely there are good performances every week that don't get a mention, and even seeing performances like Ryan Grant's or Adrian Peterson's or Joseph Addai's listed in unlikely spots would shed greater insight on their true value. Obviously FO is running all the numbers, to find out who comes out on top, so why not let us see them?

8
by John A (not verified) :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 9:34pm

I'll wager the reason they aren't publishing the top 10 RBs and WRs is that it's ten more capsules they have to write on top of the 45 or so other capsules. That's a lot of clever banter to come up with in an afternoon.

6
by Anonymous1 (not verified) :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 8:38pm

I don't understand why teams play any deep safeties against the Pats. Cassel can't throw passes further than 15 yards with any degree of accuracy whatsoever. I guess no one wants to get burned by Randy Moss, but every deep throw I've seen Cassel make has been about 10 yards off the mark.

9
by MJK :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 9:54pm

Not EVERY pass. Early in this year, Cassel had one nice wide-open 60 yard bomb to get out of the shadow of his own end zone, and ended up turning it into a scoring drive.

Also, don't forget the horrible dropped Gaffney TD against the Colts that Cassel placed perfectly, or the TWO deep bombs that Cassel put in Randy Moss's hands against the Chargers, only to have the deep safety rip it away. Granted, you can blame Cassel a bit for those, since he didn't throw it where only Moss and not the safety could get to it, but if the safety isn't there, those are two completions for TDs.

With Brady (or Manning, or maybe one or two other QB's of teams with very spoiled fans) you expect to see an open deep reciever catch the ball. With probably the other 80% of the QB's in the league, you expect to see an open reciever catch the deep ball maybe 40% of the time. Yet teams still run them, because the payoff is so large, which means that opposing teams need to keep their safeties back.

Also, it's not just the deep pass, but also for extra insurance against the run that the safeties are back there. The Pats have had good luck, especially against Buffalo and the Rams, cutting through the front seven with draws and counters. If you play your safeties up, then maybe you shut down some percentage of those plays, but the rest go for much longer gains or for TD's. By keeping the safeties deep, you limit the maximum possible damage to about 15 yards. How many times do you see a team facing 3rd or 4th and inches hand off, and the RB gets through the lines and breaks it for a TD? It's not the norm, but it certainly happens from time to time...because the safeties are playing up.

21
by Tball (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 12:08pm

Didn't all three of Cassel's TD passes against the Jets travel more than 15 yards? And they all seemed to be on the mark.

7
by Joseph :: Mon, 11/17/2008 - 8:53pm

I know it was against the Chiefs, but it WAS adjusted for D. This is why Saints' fans were high on the guy. Plus, if you ever watch him, you'll note that he generally breaks tackles, falls forward, and picks up a LOT of yds after contact. Rarely does the first tackler bring him down, and rarely can one defender bring him down.
BTW, this is also why some Saints fans believe that Deuce will be a cap casuality this offseason.

10
by tuluse :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 12:14am

Also, I think this bodes well for Mendenhall. There is no shame being stuck on the depthchart behind Thomas.

11
by Temo :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 3:11am

As a life long Braves fan, I applaud your characterization of Glavine. You've effectively encapsulated what is really the last 5 years of his career (even back when people thought he still had Hall of Fame stuff, and he didn't).

12
by Anonymouse (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 3:28am

That Oakland/soap opera paragraph was fantastic.

14
by A. Nony Mouse (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 10:07am

I hope you know this means war

15
by Unverified Telamon (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 10:08am

Holy crap, J.J.Arington is still in the league? I thought he was as retired as Lavarr.

16
by Carlos - not logged in (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 11:02am

Shouldn't Passing DYAR + Rush DYAR = Total DYAR?

Then, what's going on w/ Jason Campbell? -57 + 7 = -47??

18
by skol (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 11:48am

Did Campbell have any negative receiving yards? I've noticed QBs involved as WRs on wildcat plays often have a total DYAR that isn't the sum of the Passing and Rushing parts.

20
by skol (not verified) :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 11:53am

The only trick play I see is Campbell handing off to Randle El, who then threw a pass. Could that be the difference?

19
by Wanker79 :: Tue, 11/18/2008 - 11:50am

ZOMG!!! FO is nothing but NE fanboys. There's no way Cassel is that good. The steaming pile I left in the bowl this morning is way better than this!!1!!!exclamation pt!!

;-) Somebody had to do it, right?