Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Nov 2012

ESPN Upset Watch: Bears over 49ers

Maybe the difference between Jay Cutler and Jason Campbell isn't that big. It certainly pales in comparison to the difference between Alex Smith under pressure and Alex Smith not under pressure. Also, in Cover Watch: Arizona's offense may suck, but the defense is still good.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 15 Nov 2012

14 comments, Last at 17 Nov 2012, 2:39am by Little Bobby Tables

Comments

1
by snoopy369 :: Thu, 11/15/2012 - 5:00pm

Bears have a good chance as long as the 49ers don't get too much pressure on the QB, whomever that is. That, however, is always a question... though the HOU performance seems to be a positive sign. They probably win that game if Cutler plays in the second half.

3
by Jake (not verified) :: Thu, 11/15/2012 - 7:06pm

How do you figure? Cutler was absolutely horrendous that game. 7/14 for 40 yards and 2 picks leads you to believe it is probable the Bears would have won had he played the second half? Campbell was actually better.

4
by tuluse :: Thu, 11/15/2012 - 7:35pm

I think it's likely the Bears lose either way, but they would have had a better chance with Cutler.

10
by rfh1001 :: Fri, 11/16/2012 - 4:48am

Also, Cutler is at least that dreadful at the start of every game this season. It seems a ridiculous thing to be repeatable, but it has been repeating and repeating.

12
by Steve in WI :: Fri, 11/16/2012 - 1:29pm

Agreed...he hasn't looked good in the first half of any game, but he's looked quite good in the second half in most of them. I'm not saying the Bears would automatically have won if he hadn't gotten hurt, but I believe they would have scored more than 3 points in the 2nd half.

11
by Jimmy :: Fri, 11/16/2012 - 9:27am

Refs don't cock up the over the call on the play when Cutler got KOed the Bears have first and goal. If Marshall catches the pass that hit him in the chest in the end zone then the game is drawn. According to DVOA the Bears played the better game (rather close though). Schaub's figures were very poor too.

5
by Intropy :: Thu, 11/15/2012 - 8:28pm

.

2
by Anonymous2 (not verified) :: Thu, 11/15/2012 - 5:14pm

re: Jason Campbell sucking last week -- has there ever been a DVOA comparison of QBs inserted mid-game with those same QBs with an entire week to prepare? My guess is there is a significant increase.

6
by Intropy :: Thu, 11/15/2012 - 8:29pm

Leftwich, is that you?

7
by Nathan :: Thu, 11/15/2012 - 11:58pm

He actually wound up and started writing that comment at 5pm but didn't actually post it until
5:14.

8
by Mr. X (not verified) :: Fri, 11/16/2012 - 12:19am

49ers will win 9-3. A good defense doesn't help when your offense blows chunks.

9
by Marko :: Fri, 11/16/2012 - 1:33am

Thank you for that insight. Now I do not need to watch the game.

13
by Nathan :: Fri, 11/16/2012 - 1:40pm

Is that

1) 3 FGs
2) 1 TD, extra point and a safety
3) 3 safeties and a FG
4) 1 TD, missed extra point, and a FG

for SF?

14
by Little Bobby Tables (not verified) :: Sat, 11/17/2012 - 2:39am

Trick question: 1 TD, 2 point conversion, and a rouge.