Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

27 Dec 2012

ESPN Upset Watch: Colts over Texans

If the Colts want to beat the Texans in Chuck Pagano's return, they'll need to outscore them. Andrew Luck's tremendous record on third-and-long could definitely help. Cover Watch looks at the Arizona Cardinals defense.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 27 Dec 2012

7 comments, Last at 31 Dec 2012, 10:30am by MJ

Comments

1
by BucsFan (not verified) :: Thu, 12/27/2012 - 1:55pm

The Colts don't want to beat the Texans. If the Texans win they get the top seed, so if the Colts beat the Ravens they will play the Texans in the divisional round. Assuming NE or Denver beats Cincinnati.

If the Colts beat Houston they likely will play NE or Denver.

2
by JIPanick :: Thu, 12/27/2012 - 2:22pm

The Colts may care more about "momentum" than matchups.

3
by smk (not verified) :: Thu, 12/27/2012 - 4:52pm

"If the Colts want to beat the Texans in Chuck Pagano's return, they'll need to outscore them."

I agree.

5
by Kal :: Thu, 12/27/2012 - 5:23pm

Also, the team that scores the most points tends to win the game.

4
by bernie (not verified) :: Thu, 12/27/2012 - 5:21pm

I don't think it matters who the Colts play in the playoffs. They may have a slightly better chance against Baltimore than against the other teams, but that means they may only get beaten by 10 points as opposed to 21.

6
by herewegobrowniesherewego (not verified) :: Fri, 12/28/2012 - 1:52pm

I don't know, the Ravens looked bad enough in the few weeks before the Giants game last week that the Colts may have a legitimate shot at the Irsay Bowl.

It is hard to tell because Flacco looks like Brady Quinn some weeks and like Tom Brady in others.

7
by MJ (not verified) :: Mon, 12/31/2012 - 10:30am

I believe Mike and Tom often liked to refer to Flacco as "Jekyll and Hyde".