Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

31 Oct 2013

ESPN Upset Watch: Rams over Titans

The gap between a starting quarterback and a backup quarterback is big, but let's not go overboard with it. The same rule applies for Cover Watch, which looks at Chicago's visit to Green Bay.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 31 Oct 2013

9 comments, Last at 08 Nov 2013, 2:19pm by rds25

Comments

1
by DLS (not verified) :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 5:14pm

It seems weird to spend time accounting for the QB discrepancy between Bradford and Clemens, but not accounting for Tennessee's current DVOA reflecting several games with Fitzpatrick instead of Locker.

2
by tuluse :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 5:38pm

"The gap between a starting quarterback and a backup quarterback is big, but let's not go overboard with it."

2011 Chicago Bears
Jay Cutler: -3.5% DVOA
Caleb Hanie: -78.7% DVOA

Hmmmmm

Anyways the Bears are going to get blown off the field because the defense is bad, the offense will probably be average as the receivers, running backs and offensive line (!) are good.

Edit: Just for fun research. Peyton Manning in 2010 had 19.0% DVOA, Curtis Painter in 2011 had -33.3% DVOA. The difference between Manning and Painter is smaller than the difference between Cutler and Hanie. The mind boggles.

3
by Ian Chapman (not verified) :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 5:58pm

I don't see why this is FO's upset watch and I don't think I agree. First of all, the Rams do have a backup QB, and that will involve a dropoff from Bradford, last Monday Night notwithstanding. Also the Rams are coming off a short week.

I also note that the Rams recently are a bad matchup for Sea (and SF) and their divisional record the past two years reflects this (since Fisher). However, their non-Division record reflects that too (and it's not too good).

Finally, let's admit that the Rams played perhaps the game of the year this last Monday, and it was a physical game. I would expect a significant let down this coming Sunday.

I think the Titans win and it won't be particularly close.

4
by DA (not verified) :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 6:48pm

Is Upset watch straight up or against the Spread?

Personally, I think MIA, HOU, CLE, and BUFF are all better Upset bets than STL and CHI.

5
by Ian Chapman (not verified) :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 6:55pm

I agree. In particular I think that Buff and Hou are good candidates to pull off the upset for a variety of reasons.

7
by rds25 :: Fri, 11/01/2013 - 3:12pm

Why Houston? Oddsmakers agree with you too, I'm just not seeing how they can compete with Indi

8
by Ian Chapman (not verified) :: Sat, 11/02/2013 - 12:06am

Indy's receiving corp is crippled and to a lesser degree so is their secondary. Not only that, but Indy is flying fat, dumb, and happy after beating Denver on National TV. There is almost surely going to be a let down esp on the road. By contrast Houston is hungry, and Keenum is dangerous since he seems to have genuine talent and there is very little game film on him (yet). Also Houston's defense is still stout, and they are playing at home. Houston wants a win right now in the worst possible way.

9
by rds25 :: Fri, 11/08/2013 - 2:19pm

Great reply man, Houston basically had that game too.

6
by jellytime :: Thu, 10/31/2013 - 7:21pm

yeah I particularly don't see the Chicago GB side. Chicago has been all offense and Cutler drop off is big. They are banged up on defense and their front 4 has played mediocre. I don't see how they are going to stop GB and be able to keep up with them offensively