Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

30 Oct 2008

Fantasy Matchups: Week 9

The matchup spot revealed.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 30 Oct 2008

51 comments, Last at 01 Nov 2008, 10:54pm by tbone

Comments

1
by DrunkenSuperman :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 2:37pm

Is Gus Frerotte's matchup good enough to play him over Big Ben? I'm tempted.

6
by abernethyj :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:02pm

It certainly is.

2
by boliviasingh :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 4:02pm

Should I start Ronnie Brown vs DEN or Lendale White vs GB?

7
by abernethyj :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:04pm

Can you start both?

I'd start Brown just because his tandem is far worse than White's, but you could really make a case for either one here.

10
by Red Hedgehog (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:24pm

When they both have good matchups, go with the better player - Brown vs. DEN. Miami has a decent defense so he should see use all game.

3
by cjfarls :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 4:05pm

Hey all -

Couple bye week questions that I'm considering this week...

QB: "Garcia vs. KC" or "Orton vs. Detroit" while Brees rests?

I picked up Garcia ealier in the year due to the favorable match-up, and complete distrust of Orton... but now orton is looking semi-competant... is the Detroit matchup worth the waiver switch?

WR: R.Davis vs. DET, or Eddie Royal vs. MIA? or drop Colston (who doesn't seem to be doing anything back with NOLA, though I expect big things post-bye) or Deangelo Williams (4th RB behind Westbrook, Graham, C. Johnson) and start both over G.Jennings? I also have a couple IDP slots taking up my bench (Willis & Beason), so once they're back from bye I can try to re-pickup anyone I drop, but it puts them at risk....

TE: Scheffler v. MIA (but may not be back from injury 'til next week) or Winslow vs. Baltimore... trick is I may not be able to get online sunday to check game-day status....

I'm currently sitting in 4th place (last playoff spot), a game-up on the 5th place team... but he has more total points and thus tie-breaker.... so I really don't have a week spare, and a relatively tough matchup this week. Lots of balancing long-term return vs. matchups this week... but do to bye's don't have a lot of roster flexibility until next week.

4
by DrunkenSuperman :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 4:18pm

Just one man's opinion:

I would definitely start Orton over Garcia. I think he's a better player, plus KC's pass defense has been relatively competent compared to the rest of the team.

I'd also start Davis over Royal, though that one is closer. I wouldn't make either of those drops at this point, and would not start either one over Jennings.

At TE, I'd always go with the sure starter if you don't know if you'll be around to see if someone is playing.

8
by abernethyj :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:10pm

I would play Orton if you've got Brees on your team and will just be using the fill-in for one week.

Keep Colston and Williams, play Jennings and Davis.

Don't expect much out of your TE slot this week. I've had Winslow on my IR for several weeks now, and he has yet to make me pay for leaving him there.

5
by Scarhead :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 4:57pm

I have some questions. At RB I have Brian Westbrook, Steve Slaton, Earnest Graham and Matt Forte. I can start 2. I get 1 point per reception.

At WR I have Greg Jennings, Eddie Royal, Desean Jackson, Donnie Avery, and Rashied Davis (only because of the content in the articl. I just picked him up). I can start 2.

Any advice?

9
by abernethyj :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:15pm

RB: Westbrook, Forte.

WR: Jackson, Davis (and hope Jennings doesn't take the benching as bulletin board material).

11
by BC (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:53pm

Ok- in the flex spot: Slaton or Rashied Davis?

20
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:32am

Davis.

12
by Jay (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 5:54pm

Out of Mewelde Moore, Kolby Smith, Cedric Benson I need to start two of them. Any advice?

19
by DGL :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 12:13am

Take up golf.

36
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 4:17pm

Moore should be fine this week...but the other two, yuck. Bye week blues? Benson, I guess - you don't want anyone facing that Tampa Bay defense if you can avoid it.

13
by Tundrapat (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 6:00pm

Okay, do you guys think I should start Brown, Sayers or Csonka this week? I'm in a TD and yardage league. I get to start two of them.

14
by Luz (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 7:39pm

Schaub or Benny Roth?

18
by Mystyc :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 11:49pm

Honestly, I'd go with Schaub. Pittsburgh's offensive inconsistency is too much of a risk against any non-terrible defense.

21
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:35am

I'd say Schaub as well, but it's close.

15
by JasonK :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 7:57pm

For my 2nd RB, after Chris Johnson:
Addai (NE), T. Jones (BUF), or Fargas (ATL)?

22
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:45am

Addai is still probably out this week. Even if he isn't, he will likely be splitting carries with Rhodes. Play Jones. Drop Fargas and pick someone else up.

EDIT: Addai looks good to go this week. I'd still play Jones.

16
by lt56 (not verified) :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 8:18pm

It is extremely difficult to reconcile your table-pounding endorsement of Rashied Davis with the write up in the 2008 Prospectus. You essentially said in the book that Davis was worthless to everyone except the Bear's GM while this week you're predicting huge numbers against the lowly Lions.

More broadly, should I let my copy of the book gather dust or does it contain some potentially useful nuggets of info relevant for the playoffs?

27
by Bill Barnwell :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 12:58pm

I get the feeling that perhaps Pro Football Prospectus might not be for you.

28
by Tundrapat (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 2:56pm

Can you please write a book, that I can buy each year for $25, that will correctly predict every NFL game outcome for the coming season? Oh, and if you'd throw in 100% accurate player performance estimates as well, I'd appreciate it.

Thanks,
Pat W.

17
by Mystyc :: Thu, 10/30/2008 - 11:48pm

Alright, I get to play three of these four:

Earnest Graham (@KC)
Matt Forte (DET)
Steve Slaton (@Min)
Maurice Jones-Drew (@Cin)

Normally, I'd leave the inconsistent MJD on the bench, but boy those Bengals look tasty.

23
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:54am

Gotta go with the matchups here - play Graham, Forte, and Jones-Drew.

24
by Calig23 :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 10:57am

1. I need to start 2 of these RBs:

Marion Barber @ Giants
Earnest Graham @ KC
LenDale White vs. Green Bay

Graham seems like a great matchup, given that everybody seems to run well against the Chiefs, so he probably gets one of the spots. I'm not sure about the other spot, though.

2. I need to start 3 of these WRs:

Roddy White @ Oakland
Steve Breaston @ St. Louis
Lee Evans vs. Jets
Chad Johnson vs. Jacksonville
Jerricho Cotchery @ Buffalo
Braylon Edwards vs. Baltimore

Edwards is probably out, both because he's stunk and because the matchup is bad. Likewise with Johnson. I'm a little bit afraid that White will be covered by Asomugha, and thus, a non-factor...

32
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 4:05pm

Actually, I would probably go with Barber and White as the two RBs. Graham has been the least effective of the three so far, and may be playing fullback for much of the day Sunday for Dunn.

Johnson's matchup isn't actually that bad - Jacksonville ranks 21st against #2 receivers, which Johnson clearly is at this point. Cotchery and Edwards haven't been playing well enough to merit playing them against tough defenses in Buffalo and Baltimore. Evans and White are must-plays - even if White is being covered by Asomugha, you've got to play him. He's been excellent this season. For the third spot, I would play Breaston. Even though he's the WR3 in Arizona, he had a big game last week against Carolina even with Boldin and Fitzgerald both playing. I'd wager he has a better game than Johnson this week, especially when you take into account their respective quarterback situations.

25
by cjfarls :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 11:21am

Anyone else concerned that Lloyd could come back and steal looks from R.Davis... he's questionable, but he's practicing.

lt56 has a point... I don't think Davis is any good. I do however think the Lions pass defense are worse, so if Davis is truly getting all the looks, he's a great play... I'm just afraid of the return of Lloyd, etc. even if he only gets ~5 looks, could make Davis a marginal play...

30
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 3:45pm

For reference, I am starting Davis in two of my three leagues. In one, I have him playing over Santonio Holmes (WAS) and in the other, over Roy Williams (NYG) and Dwayne Bowe (TB). Clearly you shouldn't hesitate to play better players if they have halfway-decent matchups, but if you don't, he's a nice speculation play.

Lloyd was limited in practice again Friday (for the third straight day). He's unlikely to take many looks away from Davis and Hester as the Nos. 1 and 2 this week. Marty Booker is fully healthy, but should be a WR3 for the week.

26
by Snack Flag (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 12:35pm

Should I start C.Johnson against GB or Lynch versus NYJ this week as my 2nd RB?

33
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 4:07pm

Johnson all the way.

29
by bman (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 3:23pm

Devin Hester vs Detriot or Austin Miles vs Washington as WR3? I am leaning toward Hester since Brad has looked awful.

34
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 4:09pm

I'd roll the dice with Hester.

37
by dmb :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 8:52pm

Austin is playing against the Giants this week; he doesn't face Washington until a week from Sunday.

31
by DACBRC (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 3:55pm

Garcia or Schaub? Welker or R. Davis? Slaton or M. Moore? I'm fighting to stay in first place...thanks for the help

35
by abernethyj :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 4:12pm

Garcia, Davis, Moore.

38
by bob (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 11:15pm

have to start 3 wr's

My WR's are.

TJ Hous
Brandon Marshall
Santana Moss
Rashied Davis
Desean jackson

41
by abernethyj :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 12:30am

I'd probably start Houshmandzadeh, Marshall and Davis, but the only tough matchup in that group belongs to Moss.

39
by J.R. (not verified) :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 11:26pm

I think Antwan Odom definitely prefers the extra few million.

40
by dginsberg93 :: Fri, 10/31/2008 - 11:34pm

marshall, moss, and jackson
go with the sure point getters. expect them to have good games

42
by J (not verified) :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 4:45pm

Gotta start 3 WR:

R. Davis
Hester
Ginn
S. Holmes
A. Gonzalez

45
by mathesond :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 6:45pm

To J, I would suggest that Davis and Gonzalez have the favourable matchups. After that, I think Holmes vs Washington is a better play than the rest

46
by abernethyj :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 6:47pm

Gonzalez, Hester, Davis.

43
by sgr (not verified) :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 6:16pm

2 of the 3 WR:

S. Moss Q V. Pit Mon
D. Jackson P @ Sea 4:15
E. Royal V. Mia 4:05

All 3 projected 13 by ESPN--all 3 projected 14 by CBSSL

Leaning towards DeSean and Royal--any thoughts?

47
by abernethyj :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 6:51pm

I'd probably go Moss and Jackson. Moss' numbers so far negate the tough matchup when Royal and Jackson are your only other options.

49
by sgr (not verified) :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 7:33pm

Thank you for your input. I worry about Moss as a game-time decision, especially against Pittsburgh, but it might not matter. This line-up scored 134 for me last week and would love to roll it out again:

Schaub
Westbrook
C. Johnson
S. Moss
D. Jackson
Z. Miller
Giants D
Vinatieri

Projected 96 this week. Vs this squad:

Favre
FWP
K. Faulk
Berrian
Driver
B. Celek
Eagles D
Gould

Projected 72. So I should win regardless of WR, but stranger things have happened...

44
by mathesond :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 6:40pm

My dilemma - start Peyton vs NE, or Warner vs STL? Going into the season, I figured Peyton was my every-week guy, but I think Warner has started more weeks for me

48
by abernethyj :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 6:56pm

You could make a strong case for Peyton this week, but if it were me, I'd play Warner (especially now that he should have a strong Fitzgerald-Boldin-Breaston corps). The lack of running game in Arizona also helps.

51
by tbone (not verified) :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 10:54pm

I agree. gotta go with warner. plenty of motivation for him. should feel at home and has the best receiving core in the league. play him all season and hope he doesn't get hurt. also pick up leinart. not as good but man those wr's.

50
by tbone (not verified) :: Sat, 11/01/2008 - 10:51pm

d. avery against cardinals or ginn against denver? i didn't know on the rankings for defenses if avery would be considered the #1 or #2 wr. if he is #2 then the cardinals do better against him then holt.

had moss but not playing due to gametime decision. also i am loaded up in the rams game already which is what is making this so hard. I got warner/boldin/cardinals d/sp. already.
thanks for the help