30 Aug 2013
Before last year's Week 2 game between Detroit and San Francisco, I noted Matthew Stafford was 0-12 against teams who finished with a winning record. Sure enough, that would extend to 0-16 before his first win (28-24 over Seattle in Week 8). After a tough schedule, Stafford's record fell to 1-23 against winning teams.
Inconceivable. Pure dumb luck should produce a better record than that, but as to be expected with the Lions, they just cannot win.
So after studying 52 quarterbacks drafted in the first round since 1970 with at least 30 starts in their first four years, I found some circumstances unique only to Stafford as they would have to be to produce such a record. When J.P. Losman (1-16) is the closest comparison in record, you know something unique has taken place.
With our projections showing Detroit facing the sixth-toughest schedule in 2013, expect to hear about this one again, but at least we now know it's not much of a quarterback issue.
5 comments, Last at 02 Sep 2013, 1:02am by LionInAZ
Thanks a lot, Dak Prescott. Now more people will think the fourth round is still a gold mine for quarterbacks, but the data says otherwise. The update to our quarterback draft study for 1994-2016 shows little has changed: finding a good QB is really hard.