Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

29 Aug 2016, 03:00pm by Rivers McCown

ESPN: Joey Bosa's Holdout Won't Affect His Play

The San Diego Chargers finally agreed to a contract with No. 3 overall pick Joey Bosa today. There are no details yet on which side blinked when it comes to the "offset language" they were fighting over. However, a historical look at rookie holdouts by top-ten picks suggests that the holdout won't actually affect the production the Chargers can expect to get from Bosa in his first NFL season.

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4 comments, Last at 31 Aug 2016, 11:57am by Theo

29 Aug 2016, 12:19pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Worst Week 1 Starters for Defending Super Bowl Champs

In a new feature at ESPN Insider, I look at the worst QB situations ever for defending Super Bowl champions. There's a big gap between 47 teams and the 1986 Bears, and then a huge chasm between the 1986 Bears and two Broncos teams, including the current Broncos.

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3 comments, Last at 29 Aug 2016, 5:56pm by Aaron Schatz

24 Aug 2016, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Overrated, Underrated from #NFLRank

Each year, ESPN polls a number of writers and editors to make up a list of the top 100 players in the NFL, and each year Football Outsiders writes an article auditing the list and giving players we feel are overrated or underrated by the list. This year is no exception. We choose Adrian Peterson, Jordan Reed, and Marcus Peters as overrated, and Russell Wilson, Lavonte David, and David DeCastro as underrated.

The ESPN reader comments are certainly enjoyable.

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7 comments, Last at 29 Aug 2016, 11:30am by ramirez

17 Aug 2016, 09:45am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: NFL's Most Likely Worst-to-First Teams

Over on ESPN Insider, I take a look at the eight last-place teams from 2015 and which one is most likely to make the postseason according to our playoff odds simulation. Things are looking good for Dallas, and San Diego's going to be in the playoff race too. San Francisco and Cleveland, not so much.

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0 comments

15 Aug 2016, 08:34am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Carr, Rodgers, Luck Among Least Accurate 2015 QBs

Last week at ESPN Insider, we looked at the top 10 most accurate passers of 2015 in C%+ (derived from drop-adjusted passing plus-minus). This week we looked at six passers among the bottom 10, including Derek Carr, Aaron Rodgers and Andrew Luck.

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0 comments

09 Aug 2016, 08:20am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: NFL's 10 Most Accurate Passers

At ESPN Insider, we looked at the top 10 quarterbacks from 2015 in drop-adjusted passing plus-minus, which was converted into a rate statistic we denote as C%+. This is a much better measure of accuracy than traditional completion percentage since the distance of direction of each throw is accounted for. Russell Wilson led all players, while Ben Roethlisberger, Carson Palmer and Andy Dalton also experienced career-best seasons.

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6 comments, Last at 09 Aug 2016, 11:07pm by BigNose

04 Aug 2016, 11:21am by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: In-Season Improvement and Regression

It is rare for any team to consistently improve week in and week out, but we can compare performances from the beginning of the year with those at the end to see which college football teams improved and which ones regressed in 2015.

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1 comment, Last at 10 Aug 2016, 4:49pm by xizzim

03 Aug 2016, 10:54am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Ranking Under-25 Talent on All 32 Teams 2016

Here is our annual piece ranking all 32 teams by how much under-25 talent they have. We've got Jacksonville at No. 1 based on the promise of their three recent high defensive draft picks, plus an offense where the quarterback, running back, and top four wide receivers are all under 25 (and the top two receivers, in particular, are pretty good). Houston and Miami are also high. New England comes in last, with very little talent from the last couple drafts and a defense filled with really good 26-year-olds.

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0 comments

02 Aug 2016, 11:19am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Top 25 Prospects 2016

Look, it's our annual Top 25 Prospects list, as also seen in the brand-new Football Outsiders Almanac 2016. This is our annual list of players who were not top draft picks, haven't played much yet, but still may play major roles in the NFL in the coming years. The top three are RB David Johnson of Arizona, DE Danielle Hunter of Minnesota, and DE Henry Anderson of Indianapolis.

This is the tenth anniversary of the Top 25 Prospects list, so I'm sure we'll be writing some sort of retrospective on the site before the new season begins.

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1 comment, Last at 03 Aug 2016, 12:37pm by jklps

20 Jul 2016, 12:52pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Sneaky Strength for Every NFL Defense

Part II of a preview of the Strategic Tendencies comments and some of the other stats you'll find in the upcoming Football Outsiders Almanac 2016. We've gone through and found one positive number for each offense in 2015. Some of these splits are significant for illuminating the strengths and weaknesses of each team's personnel. Other splits tend to oscillate wildly from year to year, and a great performance in 2015 may not indicate that a team will be equally strong in the same ways in 2016.

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1 comment, Last at 20 Jul 2016, 2:37pm by Parmenides