Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 May 2015, 02:39pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Early AFC Projections for 2015

As I did a year ago, I've done a "quick version" of 2015 projections for ESPN Insider. These are not the official projections that will appear in FOA 2015. They simply regress DVOA to the mean for offense, defense, and special teams each separately, then make some small changes based on injury rates last year and certain personnel changes. The big story out of the AFC projections: Miami, which was pretty good last year except on special teams, should challenge New England for the AFC East title.

» More...

23 comments, Last at 18 May 2015, 3:55pm by mehllageman56

21 Apr 2015, 08:42pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Teams Helped, Hurt by 2015 Schedule

We look at our early DVOA projections for 2015 to see which teams are impacted most by the schedule. Who decided the Jets only needed to play six true road games in 2015?

» More...

2 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 2:32pm by RickD

20 Apr 2015, 11:56am by Andrew Healy

QBASE 2015: ESPN Insider Version

Andrew Healy has developed a new edition of Football Outsiders' QB projection system, now called QBASE. The new system looks at overall college performance, not just completion rate, adjusted for opponents and for the strength of your teammates. This ESPN Insider piece gives our projections for 2014, which are surprisingly high on Brett Hundley and low on Jameis Winston. (They are also high on Marcus Mariota, which may not be a surprise.) Another article here on FO next week will detail the differences between QBASE and the old LCF, and look at the new system's historic performance.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 5:47pm by Grendel13G

09 Apr 2015, 11:35am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN Insider NFL Front Office

Following in the footsteps of ESPN's NBA coverage, ESPN Insider has put together a group of writers called the ESPN Insider NFL Front Office that mocks the conversations that would take place in a real front office. Mark Dominik serves as general manager, Herm Edwards as head coach, and Louis Riddick as director of pro personnel. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay take turns serving as director of college scouting, and yours truly holds the role of analytics department. This week we've been discussing what we would do with the top five picks in the draft were we running those five teams.

» More...

7 comments, Last at 09 May 2015, 4:06pm by SarahStewart732

03 Apr 2015, 01:55pm by Aaron Schatz

SackSEER 2015 (ESPN Insider version)

Get a sneak peak at the top edge-rusher prospects according to our SackSEER system, which likes Vic Beasley and Randy Gregory but is lukewarm on Shane Ray and Dante Fowler.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 03 Apr 2015, 4:52pm by Led

26 Mar 2015, 12:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Playmaker Score 2015 (ESPN Insider version)

Here are Nathan Forster's Playmaker Score projections for the top WR prospects of 2015. We've got Amari Cooper way ahead of everyone else, with some red flags for prized prospects like Kevin White (didn't produce until senior year) and Dorial Green-Beckham (didn't stand out compared to teammates). There will be an expanded piece with all the Playmaker Scores for 2015 (both "rating" and "projection") on FO next week, and then the same with Nathan's SackSEER projections for edge rushers: ESPN Insider next week and FO the week after.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 30 Mar 2015, 2:09am by Dan

07 Mar 2015, 10:41am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: The Case for Trading Drew Brees

A couple weeks ago in a look at bold moves teams could make in the NFC South, I threw out a quick mention of the idea that the Saints might look to trade Drew Brees and become the NFL's first tanking experiment. Today's article for ESPN fleshes that idea out a bit more with a point-counterpoint of why the Saints should trade Brees to tank, and why tanking wouldn't work in the NFL.

» More...

15 comments, Last at 18 Mar 2015, 11:41am by KilsonFlob

23 Feb 2015, 12:45pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: 2015 RB Speed Scores

Here are your Speed Scores for running backs who ran the 40 at the 2015 combine. Matt Waldman fave Karlos Williams is this year's Speed Score champ and a big-time sleeper. Melvin Gordon did fine. Colorado State's Dee Hart is undraftable.

» More...


14 Feb 2015, 03:29pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: Overachievers And Underachievers

Which teams overachieve on the field with less recruiting success than their opponents, and which teams underachieve when fielding a more-talented roster?

» More...


28 Jan 2015, 04:47pm by Aaron Schatz

B.S. Report: Aaron Schatz on Super Bowl XLIX

Hey, kids, it's my annual pre-Super Bowl numbers breakdown with Bill Simmons on the B.S. Report. This time, the Patriots aren't favored to win the game. Well, not by us, anyway. 50-50 all the way! We also talk about that other thing, so if you don't want to hear me say the same things I've been saying on Twitter about that thing, don't listen.

» More...