Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

10 Oct 2005

2005 Quick Reads: Week 5

Back on FOXSports.com with the latest edition of Quick Reads, featuring the best and worst individual performances of the week. The highlight of this week's column is the worst quarterback performance in the history of FO's advanced metrics.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 10 Oct 2005

18 comments, Last at 11 Oct 2005, 2:39pm by Drew

Comments

1
by Vince (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 6:37pm

For those of you who prefer traditional stats, Alex Smith's game works out to an NFL QB rating of 13.7. He gets zero points for yards per attempt, touchdown percentage or interception percentage.

2
by Aaron (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 6:40pm

And -7 loser league points, which we believe is a loser league record.

3
by Matthew Furtek (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 6:57pm

Aaron,
I thought you and your stats hated the Redskins, what gives!? I'd be curious to see what the worst performance of a QB during a winning game was... I'm betting it is in the book.

Is Alex Smith going to be worse than Ryan Leaf?

4
by DavidH (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 7:13pm

I'm not sure which was more predictable, that Green Bay would finally win a game at home against a New Orleans team with terrible defense, or that a certain java-lovin' colleague at another website would make this game the focal point of today's column.

Golden.

5
by charles (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 7:13pm

Can the redskins trade clinton portis for tatum bell now?

also

Brunell fourth best qb, aaron you are putting the redskin bandwagon back together piece by piece.

6
by Ray (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 7:14pm

Give Smith some time. It was his first start against a ferocious pass rush. He can still turn out okay.

7
by BlueStarDude (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 7:55pm

re: "Can the redskins trade clinton portis for tatum bell now?"

- Sorry, I just found that remark so laugh-out-loud funny I have to comment. Thanks.

P.S. I had no problem with Dallas's 9-yard pass to Key on 3rd-and-17 - it seemed like no one was open deep, and the 9 yards were impotant in order to give big-question-mark kicker Jose Cortez a decent shot. DPAR is still the best stat going, though. Thanks, Aaron, for another great weekly peek at how players are really performing.

8
by David (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 7:58pm

I fully expect Smith to look a lot better once opponent adjustment is at full strength, if only because the system currently credits good ol' Billy Joe with 22+ expected points against the Indianapolis defense.

9
by rupert murdoch (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 8:05pm

"You often read articles asking which team got the better of the Bailey-Portis trade. Well, Portis did outplay Bailey yesterday, but don't forget that Washington also sent Denver the second-round pick used to take Tatum Bell."

I should hope Portis outplayed Bailey, as Bailey didn't play.

10
by mactbone (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 8:21pm

Orton only fumbled once. Berrian fumbled after the handoff on the third Bears fumble. Looking at the stats on NFL.com, it looks like Orton and Berrian are both credited with the fumble and in the play-by-play it just says Orton fumbled it.

He posted an 84.4 rating in conventional stats and the fumbles don't worry me because they weren't his fault. He's not as good as the conventional stats say but he didn't look as bad as DPAR makes him out to be. Still don't know why the Bears didn't even try throwing deep.

11
by yo (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 8:49pm

"“You often read articles asking which team got the better of the Bailey-Portis trade. Well, Portis did outplay Bailey yesterday, but don’t forget that Washington also sent Denver the second-round pick used to take Tatum Bell.�

I should hope Portis outplayed Bailey, as Bailey didn’t play. "

Agreed. That was just a dumb, dumb, dumb statement. Stupid.

12
by Aaron (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 8:56pm

Um, it was a joke. Yes, I knew Bailey didn't play.

13
by Fnor (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 9:07pm

Hey Aaron, Bailey didn't play!!

;D

14
by Andrew (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 9:20pm

Interesting comment in Philadelphia papers prompted me to search out this set of stat lines.

Donovan McNabb in Dallas:

1999 - 7 of 17 for 49, 0 TD 1 INT, 3 rush for 24 yds 0 TD, Eagles lose 20-10
2000 - 16-28 for 130, 1 TD 2 INT, 5 rush for 29 yds 1 TD, Ealges win 41-14
2001 - 16-32 for 129, 1 TD 1 INT, 4 rush for 24 yds 0 TD, Eagles win 36-3
2002 - Injured, did not play, Feeley was 19-33 for 253, 1 TD 2 INT, 2 rush for 2 yds 0 TD, Eagles win 27-3
2003 - 11-26 for 126, 1 TD 0 INT, 6 rush for 0 yds 0 TD, Eagles lose 23-21
2004 - 15-27 for 345, 4 TD 0 INT, 2 rush for 14 yds 0 TD, Eagles win 49-21
2005 - 13-26 for 131, 0 TD 0 INT, 2 rush for 3 yds 0 TD, Eagles lose 33-10

The anomaly yesterday afternoon was not McNabb, who put on his usual low-watt performance in Dallas, but the rest of the team, especially the running game and special teams, which set the defense up for an afternoon of horror.

Aaron, was McNabb's DPAR for this Dallas game appreciably worse than what he had in 2000, 2001, or 2003?

15
by dedkrikit (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 10:00pm

Love these articles - it isn't super in-depth and does a nice wrap-up of Sunday's games on a high-light/low-light level.

Any idea how this is affecting Fox's readership?

16
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 11:22pm

For lowest DPAR in a win, I'd guess one of the Krenzel masterpieces from last year.

How did Ty Detmer's 7 INTs against Cleveland not crack the worst games ever? As much as the system penalizes turnovers, I figured that would be way up there.

17
by Aaron (not verified) :: Mon, 10/10/2005 - 11:59pm

Cleveland was the number one pass defense in 2001. Really. Plus one of the interceptions is classified as "Hail Mary" and therefore I only count it as incomplete, plus Detmer had 212 yards passing in the game to go with all those picks. So it ends up -21.7 PAR before adjusting for CLE DEF, and -15.0 DPAR afterwards.

18
by Drew (not verified) :: Tue, 10/11/2005 - 2:39pm

Along the same line, what is the worst single-game PAR performance? I'm just curious what the list looks like pre-adjustment. I'd guess that Detmer's -21.7 would be in the running, as would Ryan Leaf's 1-of-15 game vs KC in 1998.