Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

16 Jan 2006

2005 Quick Reads: Week 19

Quick Reads from the divisional round, starring Steve Smith, who put up the best single-game receiving DPAR of the season. He even surpassed the top two receivers from the regular season, Steve Smith and Steve Smith.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 16 Jan 2006

23 comments, Last at 17 Jan 2006, 8:00pm by putnamp

Comments

1
by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 5:56pm

Best use of a Carole King tune ... EVER.

You might even say you wove the tapestry of Peyton's career there.

2
by DJAnyReason (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 6:02pm

How dare you disrespect Tom Brady (genuflect) by penning "No disrespect meant to Alexander" in your article, Aaron! Genuflect for forgiveness!

...yeah, I guess I was wrong when I said it was getting old :)

3
by DGL (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 6:05pm

So does Ben get DPAR points for tackles?

4
by pawnking (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 6:46pm

I, too noticed the sustained 25 yards down the field blockong by the Seattle linesman. Should have been highlighted more by ESPN, et. al. Thank you for pointing it out.

5
by Larry R. (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 7:01pm

Aaron: I guess fumbles and interceptions didn't hurt J. Delhomme this time in his DPAR? He had 1 int and 2 fumbles were as Matt Hasselbeck had 0-0. Yardage gained per attempt were about the same....

6
by Ned Macey :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 8:27pm

MDS: This loss hurt infinitely more, although Kordell did step out of bounds on his touchdown that year.

7
by Ned Macey :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 8:30pm

And that is in the wrong thread. Sorry about that.

8
by Kal (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 8:30pm

Thanks for pointing out the Seattle blocking. That's one thing that I've felt Seattle's been extraordinarily good at all year - everyone on the team appears to get the idea of blocking. Jurevicius especially seems like a good find here, as I've seen him make a number of good seals and downfield blocks all year long.

Steve Smith...wow.

9
by calbuzz (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 8:36pm

Speaking of Seattle blocking, the Tacoma Tribune is reporting Sean Locklear, RT, in jail for domestic violence in Pioneer Square, where Ken Hamlin got beaned.

10
by T. Diddy (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 8:36pm

#5: I imagine the fact that Delhomme's performance came against a Bears defense that was being compared to those of the mid-'80s gave him a little bit of a boost.

11
by Larry R. (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 8:48pm

Oh one more point..... Delhomme was sacked once and Hasselbeck was not....

12
by Alan Milnes (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 9:03pm

I've read this site for a long time now, and bought PFP, but I have no idea what the Big Ben explanation means - am I the only one?

13
by Catfish (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 9:10pm

Re: 5 I'm guessing it's mostly due to Chicago being a better defense than Washington. Plus, Delhomme had 7 more attempts, thus more chances to gain DPAR. I'd imagine that their DVOA's are pretty similar though.

14
by CaffeineMan (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 9:21pm

Re #12 (Alan Milnes)

In the Big Ben description, Aaron is referring to DPAR being a cumulative stat. It rewards good performance, but also how heavily a player is used. DVOA is a rate stat, independent of the number of plays the player was involved in. Thus, Ben had a better DVOA than Peyton, because he was better on a per-play basis, but a worse DPAR, because Peyton got more opportunities.

15
by OJ (not verified) :: Mon, 01/16/2006 - 11:48pm

Is there a way to extrapolate Big Ben's play out to Peyton's and compare their DPAR?

16
by Zac (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 12:25am

#15. An extremely rough estimate would be to simply divide DPAR by the number of plays each was involved with.

That gives the following numbers for the QBs (in Passing DPAR / attempt).

Jake Delhomme-.43 (.03 when not passing to Smith, 1.06 when passing to Smith)
Matt Hasselbeck-.30
Ben Roethlisberger-.24
Peyton Manning-.18
Tom Brady-.14
Mark Brunell-.06
Rex Grossman-.05
Jake Plummer-.03

17
by Bobman (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 12:34am

As a Colt fan it's not terribly easy to say this, but it is pretty obvious to me: Roethlisberger as MVP? Sure Steve Smith has nice stats, but when he was out last year, along with many others, his team still nearly ran the table in the second half.

When Ben was out, his team floundered. With him back at full strength, they are beating higher ranked teams (indeed, teams most experts and hacks alike thought were quite superior). Add in his tackling skills (ugh) and I say the damn punk is the complete package. drat! Not even sure if Walter Jones, my previous choice, could have tackled Nick Harper in the open field.

18
by Balaji (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 1:13am

#17: The thing is, Ben still might not be at full strength, what with the mysterious thumb injury. And that is a scary thought, considering this is only his second year.

19
by NF (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 1:30am

Ben Roethlisberger can cement a reputation as the next Tom Brady with a win in Denver and Detroit. Prepare for the possibility of being stupefied by the inevitable Brady-Manning-Roethlisberger arguments. And if Carson Palmer wins it all next year, you're talking about a Brady-Manning-Palmer-Roethlisberger argument.

Of course, only one of those players were drafted in the 6th round.

See, the irrationality, it is like a black hole. Resistance is useless...

At least i can enjoy the fact that at least one conference has actual QBs. In the NFC, there is McNabb, Hasselbeck, maybe Culpepper, maybe Jake Delhomme, a whole lot of projects (Alex Smith, Eli Manning, Rex Grossman, Chris Simms, etc.), and a very mediocre rest.

20
by Guy Poland (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 6:58am

@ 19 Whew ... looks like you set of a Peybentom Branningsberger discussion ;-) (Do I have to genuflect using this name??)

21
by Alan Milnes (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 7:16am

Thanks CaffeineMan

22
by Clod (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 2:44pm

I would like to know Goings v. Foster DPAR for the Chicago game.

23
by putnamp (not verified) :: Tue, 01/17/2006 - 8:00pm

Wait.. is anyone else listening to this? Roethlisburger the next Brady/Manning? Doesn't the guy have to do this for more than just 2 years? Wouldn't it help if his offense's passing game weren't so clearly secondary to the running game? Great player, he is, but can we please not let ourselves get too high on Pittsburgh over Indy yet?