Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

08 Sep 2006

Week 1 Rundown: Mannings Prepare to Duel

Mike Tanier's back, and he's got all the numbers on what you're going to see this season -- and this week.

Posted by: Mike Tanier on 08 Sep 2006

45 comments, Last at 12 Sep 2006, 9:25pm by Michael

Comments

1
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 12:49am

Hey, did you know that Peyton Manning and Eli Manning are brothers and they're playing each other?

2
by Adam (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:30am

Playing what with each other?

3
by thoughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:33am

And in other breaking news, Jerome Bettis is from Detroit

4
by Zug Zug (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:44am

I think Evan Pantsfish Wade over at Somethingawful.com got this game prediction right:

"Pantsfish: All that aside I think this Manning vs. Manning is overplayed. If you want to know the real struggle in this game you need look no further than Jeff Saturday and his eternal search for the perfect sub sandwich, a conflict so complex Hemingway couldn’t do it justice. Jeff, if you’re reading this: I hope you find your sandwich, buddy. I truly do. Also I hope you send me some of it because I’m really hungry.

PW Final Score: Colts 35, Giants 21. The QB game will be played by second-stringers when some wiseass shouts “It’s a playoff game”, sending both Mannings into shock."

5
by David (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:55am

I have to say, there was one genuinely good Manning/Collinsworth commercial. Watching Peyton and Eli mimic each other's version of the Manning Face was great.

6
by Jake (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 8:41am

1. Mike Tanier looks like he'd make a good pirate. He looks like he's about to swash-buckle. 2. The sports media know correctly understands that Willie Parker is a fine option to get 4 or 5 yards consistently. What's funny is that they have changed their minds based on last night's game. Parker didn't run all that well until late in the game. There were a lot of 3 yard runs and stuffed runs in the first half. You have to love it when the media is right for the wrong reasons.

7
by Topas (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 9:21am

Hi Mike,

mostly good article. Therefore I help you for next week. You can just copy that in your article next week at the beginning of the Bills game part without having to name me.

"Concerning Buffalo: Sorry. I think I got caught up in the media main stream and was just taking the easy road and bashed Levy and Wilson for their age. Without properly evaluating their moves I just remendered that they PROBABLY (according to draft EXPERTS) reached with their draft picks and did not sign any big name free agents. Although they lost against the Pats the game went to the wire and I think I seriously under estimated the Bills, including Levy. I am sorry and I will properly researched for the rundown this week without using stereotypes I do not eaxmined on my own."

Cheer
Topas

8
by croaka (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 10:24am

Levy, as you know, taught the K-Gun offense to homo habilis.

thus leading to the near extinction of homo neanderthalis (Mike Tice soldiers on)

9
by RowdyRoddyPiper (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 10:56am

I had no idea Fez was such a Bills fan...I always was lead to believe packers.

Also, if you have JP Losman and you could take Matt Leinart...you likely aren't making the best use of your draft picks.

10
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 11:04am

Re: 5 (the Manning commercials)

I have to say, even though I am thoroughly sick of seeing a Payton Manning commercial every 5 minutes, the first couple time I see a new one of his commercials I laugh pretty hard. They're all pretty solid (well, as solid as a stinking commercial can be anyway).

11
by Doug (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 11:16am

Incredibly, this is the first I've seen someone point out the troubles that lay ahead for Dallas in the Jax game. This is the game I'm looking forward to most on Sunday. Most pundits are picking Dallas to beat Jax, even though the game is in Jacksonville, and the Jaguars have the exact personnel that Bledsoe absolutely cannot handle--two huge tackles and good pass-rushing ends. Kudos to the writer for pointing this out, though I disagree on the game's outcome.

12
by fromanchu (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 11:18am

re 3
wow, thats so ironic, since last years superbowl was in detroit

13
by Yakuza Rich (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 11:47am

#11. Jacksonville finished 22nd in ALY on defending runs up the middle last year. Plus, Dallas' problems last year came from the pass rush from DE's and LB's blitzing from the outside since neither Rob Petitti or Torrin Tucker could handle them. Both Petitti and Tucker are no longer with the team. The Cowboys were far better at their O-Line when Flozell Adams was healthy and Marc Colombo looks a lot better now than Petitti did at this time last season.

Combine that with Stroud likely to be out for this game and Mike Peterson as well (the main guy they send on a LB blitz), I wouldn't point to those factors as working against Dallas.

I think the bigger concerns for Dallas are defending the Jags' running game and then defending Jones and Wilford. Dallas appears better at defending runs up the middle, but last year they finished a woeful 30th against runs up the middle. On the flip side, Jacksonville ran the ball 64% of the time up the middle last season, the highest percentage in the league.

And while Terence Newman is great and the other Dallas CB's are good, Newman's biggest weakness is probably defending tall WR's because he's never been all that great on locating the ball on deep fade routes and such. Aaron Glenn and Anthony Henry are much better at this aspect, but they are still much shorter than both Jones or Wilford.

14
by White Rose Duelist (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 11:51am

The final score of Indy-New York is going to be 5-4, because the Mannings spent so much time filming commercials that they haven't been able to practice since January. Archie gets three receptions, and Cooper kicks the game-winning field goal.

15
by zip (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 12:15pm

#7

This just in, people sometime make jokes about stereotypes. Getting upset about this is one of the leading indicators of being a humorless tool. And yes, I'm a Bills fan too.

16
by Miles (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:04pm

nice analysis Yakuza (#13).

17
by mathesond (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 1:57pm

I think the biggest question surrounding the Giants-Colts tilt is, has Olivia Manning taken lessons from Laura Quinn and stitched together a NYG-Indy half-and-half jersey?

18
by B (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 2:45pm

12: It's not ironic, it's coincidental.

19
by Grouchy Bills Fan (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 3:00pm

Has anyone figured out how to close the ad popup on the FOX page? It's blocking the first paragraph. making me even grouchier than usual.

20
by Grouchy Bills Fan (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 3:25pm

Piling on #7, if you're going to improve society by waging battle against damaging stereotypes, "old people drive slow" isn't the place to start.

Marv doesn't get any breaks from me until he shows some results. I'd change my name to "Pleasantly Surprised Bills Fan" if the offense can at least hold the ball long enough for the defense to catch its breath, something that hasn't happened much in this century.

21
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 3:28pm

Re:19

Usually, a simple 'F5' refresh will do the trick.

22
by Marko (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 6:19pm

Bills fans, good luck with Dick Jauron as your head coach. You'll need it. You're in for lots of boring, unimaginative, overly conservative, and unsuccessful football. He never plays to win; he always plays not to lose, which inevitably leads to long-term failure.

As a Bears fan, I couldn't stand Jauron as a coach. Even in the Bears' miracle 2001 season, when they went 13-3, many of the games they won were in spite of Jauron. For example, I remember a game they won that year at Tampa Bay 27-24 where I was literally ready to throw things at the TV despite the fact that the Bears won.

The Bears were in complete control of the game and led 27-16 with less than 3 minutes to go. However, after Tampa Bay pulled within 27-24, Jauron was responsible for unbelievably stupid play-calling and incredibly poor clock management when the Bears easily could have run out the clock. Tampa Bay ended up getting the ball back and got into field goal range. The Bears held on for the victory only because Martin Gramatica's 48-yard field goal attempt bounced off the upright as time expired. At that point, I told my father (with whom I was watching the game) that Jauron should be fired even though the Bears won, because the game never should have come down to a missed field goal.

23
by mikeabbott (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 6:28pm

:: Grouchy Bills Fan
I use firefox with the NoScript extension. This lets me control scripting on a site by site basis so I avoid many annoyances while stil being able to do things like banking.

24
by ZS (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 6:47pm

I've been reading The Sports Guy on the site I'm not mentioning for fear of getting my comment deleted, and he puts the over/under of shots of Archie during the game to be 13.5, with the interview (and you know they will) being a gimme. I'm betting the under, 'cuz I'm boring like that.

Anyway, I'm watching the Manning Bowl for a very, very bizarre reason - I'm a Giants fan. Yeah, I'd be watching if the QBs were, as Something Awful suggested, Sorgi and Lorenzen (He's the backup now! Woohoo!), but I'd put the Colts defense in on my fantasy team. Don't have them in because I picked Eli.

Oh, and I wouldn't call either of the MNF games Must-See. Saying that as someone who is both an NFC East obsessee and a guy who gave San Diego the money to trade for David Wells by buying one of those really nice hats ($30? For a hat?). By my own predictions, three of the four teams are just not making the playoffs, and I'm not saying which until the playoffs.

Wait, I see what you did there. It's not "Must-See", it's "Games You Will Watch", and since it's Monday night...

Why did I leave all this in? Why? Just don't click "Say It!". Don't... OHNO

25
by Countertorque (not verified) :: Fri, 09/08/2006 - 6:54pm

Mike Tanier is entertaining as always.

26
by Basilicus (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 1:10am

"...and a few hundred previews for 24 (a show you'll watch anyway) and War at Home (no comment)."

Unless NBC, ABC, and ESPN aren't advertising for their shows this year, I think someone's name-dropping for the bosses.

27
by BillWallace (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 4:35am

The first 4 paragraphs of the Dallas Jack section were very very good.

28
by centrifuge (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 5:02am

Re 5/10: The Gatorade one with the being born from the football -- that one I can't stand. The toupee and mustache gets me every time, though.

"Maybe like Peyton Manning's team, maybe." And such a hopeful little smile!

29
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 10:01am

"You'll see ... over 200 defensive pass interference penalties, half of them against Quentin Jammer."

Nice

30
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 10:09am

I'm with you #28, that one is a good one.

31
by Anonymous (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 10:29am

Re: 3, 12

I wonder why they never mentioned that Bettis was from Detroit before, during, or after the Super Bowl. After all, he was playing in it.

Btw, I don't think that the Mannings are really going to play each other. At the last moment, Archie is going to pull Eli, saying that if it isn't in the Super Bowl, he doesn't want them playing each other -- it'll just wear them down. Archie and Eli can then watch the game with Venus Williams and her father.

32
by paytonrules (not verified) :: Sat, 09/09/2006 - 4:13pm

As a huge fan of the Olympics the "sports-free" Olympics comment made me first laugh, then nod my head yes, then be happy somebody else has noticed it, then finally hate NBC. Again.

33
by barry foster (not verified) :: Sun, 09/10/2006 - 12:47am

mike, I cannot read anything that you write without cracking up.

34
by bam morris (not verified) :: Sun, 09/10/2006 - 2:06am

barry, I can't read anything without cracking up.

35
by Dexter Manley (not verified) :: Sun, 09/10/2006 - 3:05am

Bam,

I can't read.

36
by Sam B (not verified) :: Sun, 09/10/2006 - 11:56am

Is it just me, or is it impossible to access the printable version with comments of any article at the moment?

37
by Agassi\\\'s Hair (not verified) :: Sun, 09/10/2006 - 12:29pm

Braylon Edwards is out until at least October for the Browns.

38
by ZS (not verified) :: Sun, 09/10/2006 - 8:16pm

#37: The Mt. Bustmore commitee has put him on their watch list.

39
by Richard (not verified) :: Sun, 09/10/2006 - 9:47pm

“You’ll see … over 200 defensive pass interference penalties, half of them against Quentin Jammer.�

I threw up a little when I read that.

40
by Joe Blow (not verified) :: Mon, 09/11/2006 - 1:23am

wait...no one's even gonna mention the ridiculously cheap shot robert geathers put on trent green as green was well into a feet-first slide in the chiefs-bengals game? i mean, geathers had his knees bent, shoulder lowered, and was leaping towards the ground in order to put an unprotected hit on the quarterback, since he couldn't get one cleanly during the actual game. he succeeded in driving his shoulder into a defenseless players' head and snapping it into the ground. good job, tough guy! what a pussy!

that was about as cheap and dirty as they come -- someone should really take him out..

41
by Mitch Cumstein (not verified) :: Mon, 09/11/2006 - 8:39am

And then you throw in the fact that Randy Cross was defending the hit as clean. He claimed that Eddie Kennison blocked Geathers into Green. I don't see that. I see Kennison brushing Geathers moving across his back, not directly from behind, while Geathers had already begun lowering his head and moving forward to drill Green. At that point, Green was already into his slide. To throw some physics in, Kennison may have added a few Newtons of force to the hit by Geathers, but he did not "push" Geathers into Green in the sense that he caused an otherwise surrendering defender to run into Green when he would have not done the same thing without it.

It was a cheap shot. If you notice, Geathers was on the sideline right after that, probably for his own safety. I suspect the league office may not agree with Cross' assessment.

42
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Mon, 09/11/2006 - 11:25am

Re: Me in #10

Those tricky tricky bastards. They wait until I go and say something nice about them and then I'm bombarded with that stupid assed "We're audibling to pancakes" bullcrap. I feel dirty.

43
by DD Ohio (not verified) :: Mon, 09/11/2006 - 6:07pm

#42 and #43,
It wasn’t super-evident from the network footage, but the replay on the local late-night sports wrap show last night showed pretty clearly that Kennison did push linebacker Geathers in the back. Imagine how irate KC fans would have been if they had picked up a “block in the back� penalty on top of the already-unpleasant result. And I’m sorry, I know Trent Green is allowed to hook-slide or not hook-slide whenever he chooses, but the play on which he was hurt was his third scramble beyond the LOS, and he remained upright on the previous two. No defender should be assuming there was a hook-slide coming, and it appears as though Geathers left his feet right as Green started his slide.

44
by #44 (not verified) :: Tue, 09/12/2006 - 7:30pm

#44

You rock. Just win, baby.

45
by Michael (not verified) :: Tue, 09/12/2006 - 9:25pm

Alex smith looked terrific and also did bryant and vernon davis. The future is bright in san fran