Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Oct 2007

ESPN: Addai, Jones-Drew in Select Company

With a big AFC South rivalry on the slate for MNF, I look at similarity scores for Joseph Addai and Maurice Jones-Drew. (Note that the ESPN guys didn't find room for receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, or age, but those do matter in the similarity scores.)

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 21 Oct 2007

6 comments, Last at 23 Oct 2007, 2:39pm by zlionsfan


by Bob in Jax (not verified) :: Sun, 10/21/2007 - 6:43pm

Nice idea, Aaron. I am, of course, a Jaguars fan, and have watched Jones-Drew almost every snap of his career (darn blackouts). I guess I suspected he was truly a unique back, but I hadn't realized to what extent! Naturally I was less than thrilled with the comparison between Addai and Davis; but, time will tell. I hope Addai is not so similar that he will have more knee issues in the near future! Hating the Colts as a team is fun and all, but I wish only the best to the players individually. It is professional football, after all.

by muddy waters (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 1:00am

When you have a chance, could you post similarity scores for MBIII?

by senser81 (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 3:08pm

Addai's rookie year was nice, but nothing spectacular. I don't quite understand all the buzz around him, considering he has 4 100-yard games in his career (Adrian Peterson has 4 100-yard games so far) and his projected 2007 is much more impressive than his real life 2006.

Jones-Drew was robbed of the ROTY last year in my opinion, and the comparison to Brooks is fitting in that respect, because Brooks was always underrated as well.

by Darth Goofy (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 10:00am

RE #3:

You do realize that Addai did not start any regular season games last year, don't you? He rushed for over 1,000 yards as the back-up RB. That is pretty unaverage.

by Dwayne (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 11:56am

#4, I like the use of the word "unaverage", and I have to agree with you. Addai is a very good back, he is good in the passing game as well as being a decent runner. Addai has the ability to be a #1 back, while Jones-Drew seems more likely to remain a change of pace back who splits carries with a workhorse. MJD is a dynamic player but he cannot carry a running game on his own.

by zlionsfan (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 2:39pm

100-yard games? eh.

Addai's 2006 DPAR: 36.1.

That's pretty good.

2006 Success Rate: 62%.

That's really good.

Jones-Drew's 2006 DPAR: 26.0.

That's also good, but less good. Blame Fred Taylor for that, although last year Taylor's DVOA justified his carries. (For counterexample, see Jones, J.)