Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

21 Oct 2007

ESPN: Addai, Jones-Drew in Select Company

With a big AFC South rivalry on the slate for MNF, I look at similarity scores for Joseph Addai and Maurice Jones-Drew. (Note that the ESPN guys didn't find room for receiving yards, receiving touchdowns, or age, but those do matter in the similarity scores.)

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 21 Oct 2007

6 comments, Last at 23 Oct 2007, 2:39pm by zlionsfan

Comments

1
by Bob in Jax (not verified) :: Sun, 10/21/2007 - 6:43pm

Nice idea, Aaron. I am, of course, a Jaguars fan, and have watched Jones-Drew almost every snap of his career (darn blackouts). I guess I suspected he was truly a unique back, but I hadn't realized to what extent! Naturally I was less than thrilled with the comparison between Addai and Davis; but, time will tell. I hope Addai is not so similar that he will have more knee issues in the near future! Hating the Colts as a team is fun and all, but I wish only the best to the players individually. It is professional football, after all.

2
by muddy waters (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 1:00am

When you have a chance, could you post similarity scores for MBIII?

3
by senser81 (not verified) :: Mon, 10/22/2007 - 3:08pm

Addai's rookie year was nice, but nothing spectacular. I don't quite understand all the buzz around him, considering he has 4 100-yard games in his career (Adrian Peterson has 4 100-yard games so far) and his projected 2007 is much more impressive than his real life 2006.

Jones-Drew was robbed of the ROTY last year in my opinion, and the comparison to Brooks is fitting in that respect, because Brooks was always underrated as well.

4
by Darth Goofy (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 10:00am

RE #3:

You do realize that Addai did not start any regular season games last year, don't you? He rushed for over 1,000 yards as the back-up RB. That is pretty unaverage.

5
by Dwayne (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 11:56am

#4, I like the use of the word "unaverage", and I have to agree with you. Addai is a very good back, he is good in the passing game as well as being a decent runner. Addai has the ability to be a #1 back, while Jones-Drew seems more likely to remain a change of pace back who splits carries with a workhorse. MJD is a dynamic player but he cannot carry a running game on his own.

6
by zlionsfan (not verified) :: Tue, 10/23/2007 - 2:39pm

100-yard games? eh.

Addai's 2006 DPAR: 36.1.

That's pretty good.

2006 Success Rate: 62%.

That's really good.

Jones-Drew's 2006 DPAR: 26.0.

That's also good, but less good. Blame Fred Taylor for that, although last year Taylor's DVOA justified his carries. (For counterexample, see Jones, J.)