Hmm, not nearly as bleak as I would have expected. But... I'm guessing that if you were to add the qualifier of winning by 1-3 points and having a rush defense this bad, there wouldn't be any teams on that list that made the playoffs. Either way, I wouldn't have expected to see that half the teams on that list made the playoffs.

No one is claiming they're a "championship team," but I'm optimistic about Denver.

First, their internal efficiency stats are promising. Their passing efficiency (including sack yds) is solidly above average at 6th in the league. Their yds per rush is also 6th in the league.

The Broncos defense so far has been fairly below average, however. Their running defense in particular has been poor. But run D is severely overrated, especially if you can build a lead through the air--just ask the '06 Colts and Saints.

Also keep in mind they've had one of the toughest schedules so far this year, including games against IND, SD, JAX, and PIT.

Their future schedule is relatively soft--It's probably the softest of any team not in the NFC West. Given their efficient offense and soft schedule, they'll probably end up with 9 or 10 wins and a good shot at a playoff spot.

Wow...Bashing the Fins is so in vogue now that even past playoff appearances are being wiped away by revisionist historians.

They *did* make the playoffs in '99 and even won a game believe it or not. In fact I'm amazed you didn't take the opportunity to remind the world yet again of the circumstances of their playoff loss that season.

"Their future schedule is relatively soft–It’s probably the softest of any team not in the NFC West. Given their efficient offense and soft schedule, they’ll probably end up with 9 or 10 wins and a good shot at a playoff spot."

It is worth noting that after Monday's game, Denver will have played 5 Home Games and only 2 Away Games. If they lose to GB Denver will have a losing record despite playing the Vast majority of their games so far at home. I'd say Den is more likely to finish around 6-7 wins range

"this isn’t particularly good news for the Broncos — although it isn’t as negative an indicator compared to what I expected when I started the research."

"24 teams that started the year with three close wins averaged 9.4 victories for the season."

That's darn near exactly what's to be expected.

Start as a given that a team won three games. Add that it did so by hair-thin margins -- it did so by luck, there's no evidence there that it's other than a .500 team. During the other 13 games on average such a .500 team will go 6.5-6.5, for a total of 9.5 wins. Pretty darn close to 9.4!

Add the fact that "since 1970" includes a bunch of 14-game seasons ... Viola! 9.4!

Re 5:

You're forgetting that Denver is .500 with 3 close wins. There is evidence that they are worse than .500 unless the losses were by hair-thin margins.

Just comparing them to other teams that had 3 close wins ignores the fact that they've been beaten soundly in their other 3 games. So the teams that started 6-0 or 5-1 are totally irrelevant comparisons, and I'm not sure how relevant the 4-2 teams are either.

DolFan316, After the 99 season the Fins got walloped by the Jags--did they win a play-in game the week before? Or are you referring to the next year when they beat Indy in OT (thank you, Lamar "200 Yards" Smith and Mike "Shank" Vanderjagt).

#3: You mean the one they lost 62-7? I can see Fred Taylor sprinting away now... :)

I think #4 nailed it. When thinking about the odds of such a team making the playoffs, remember that you're spotting them three wins.

Yep, that was the 62-7 game.

Miami is 0-8, they have a first-year head coach whose only prior HC experience was a disappointing stint with a second-tier BCS team, their starting QB is out for the season, their starting RB is out for the season, and their best WR was traded to San Diego.

With all that in mind, I suppose you could talk about the Dolphins without "bashing" them, but I doubt you'd be able to say much.

#10 I really consider IU a third-tier BCS team. Wait, how many BCS tiers are there? Whatever the max is, that's IU. And maybe Minnesota post-Mason as well.

Re #10: Miami is 0-8, they have a first-year head coach whose only prior HC experience was a disappointing stint with a second-tier BCS team, their starting QB is out for the season, their starting RB is out for the season, and their best WR was traded to San Diego.

I thought Wes Welker was sent to the Pats? Or did you mean Booker? If so, I'm pretty sure he's still with the team.

Re 10:

Vernon Carey has been better than expected at Left Tackle.

That is 10 words. I think that's about it.

Didn't Miami beat Seattle in the WC 99 (on the road) before the shellacking in Jax?