Very shocked at how confident you are with your AFC Championship pick. Granted, if San Diego is as hobbled as they look like they might be, you're probably right.

But if they're not, do you really expect San Diego to only flirt with the spread? Especially after what they did to Indianapolis (a better defense than New England by DVOA), a team you said would beat them handily.

If I'm reading the numbers correctly, befor week 6, the Packers had ALY of 3.58, but average RB yards per carry was 3.57. Does that mean their pervious RBs were worth negative yardage? That's extrodinarily bad.

Re 3:

Indy defense minus Freeney in a dome is not the same as the New England defense outside in the cold with a 20mph wind. On paper Indy's better, and if everyone's healthy without the elements Indy's better. But don't underestimate the impact of weather. It's made the Pats defense look better in December/January for years :P

Re 3:

Even during the time that Freeney was out, Indianapolis had the better defense.

Wouldn't the weather hurt the pass happy offense of the Patriots more than anybody?

#4-I'd guess it would depend in part on how strong and how unpredictable the wind is. They're a lot more used to playing and practicing in this kind of weather, though.

Re #2
No. Take a look at the ALY formula on the offensive line page. What ALY > RB yards means is the team is the RB is bad at getting 5+ yards per carry, esp. >10 yards. Compare a team's ALY-RB yards differential to its 10+ rank, and this is pretty clear.