Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

11 Jan 2008

FO Chat at BaseballProspectus.com

Here's the transcript of the chat I did today at Baseball Prospectus. The biggest surprise to me was that I got about four times as many questions about the draft and free agency as I got about this weekend's four games. Bill Barnwell is doing a chat at BP a week from today.

Posted by: Michael David Smith on 11 Jan 2008

13 comments, Last at 16 Jan 2008, 1:04pm by zlionsfan

Comments

1
by Steve Nolan (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 4:39pm

I'd bet most of the FA/draft questions concerning teams that weren't in the playoffs, right? Fans of teams that were already eliminated gotta stay interested in something.

2
by B (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 5:49pm

Kyle Orton, really?

3
by Justin Zeth (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 5:52pm

The problem is that there don't figure to be any decent options available in free agency or via trade, even for a caretaker kind of role. Chad Pennington, perhaps, if you can pry him from the Jets for something less than a second rounder. Teams with QB problems are by and large going to be forced to keep their incumbents for lack of any better choices.

4
by TED F!@#ING GINN!? (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 5:56pm

Does anyone else think that with the new regime in Miami, they'll start to look for guys that fit in a 3 - 4 defense? I can't see Glenn Dorsey playing nose tackle in a 3 - 4, but maybe I'm wrong.

I also didn't like what I saw of Jake Long against good pass rushers this year. Against Ohio State and Florida he got absolutely pancaked by DEs on a few plays. Somehow I don't think that's something that should happen to guy who is supposed to be a franchise LT. Also, (I think it was against Wisconsin) there was a play where he completely ignored the rushing DE and ran straight forward about 2 yards to block the outside linebacker as soon as the ball was snapped. Could that have been by design? There was no TE or anything to his left. It looked very strange...

I'm by no means an NFL scout, in fact he's the 1st offensive lineman I've watched on a consistent basis in college, so I might be being a little hard on him. I don't know.

Who else would they look for with 1st pick? I've never seen Chris Long, so I don't know anything about him.

5
by Andrew (A.B.) (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 6:26pm

Why are you surprised? Only one team out of four is still playing...

6
by chip (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 6:35pm

#2 God help us if that's the case. With respect to #3, at some point it's the chicken and the egg. Do you get the QB first and then build the O-line or vice versa? If you get the QB first, you risk damaging his physche / mechanics by constantly running from pressure in his early years. If you build the line first, you risk never finding the QB that can put you over the top (see: Vikings, Minnesota). I just don't see Jerry Angelo pulling the trigger on a QB in the first round. He'll probably take a flyer on Joe Flacco, which will be a diseaster. Best case scenario, he takes a OLT prospect in round 1 (starting him at RT first, then swapping with Tait in year 2) and Chad Henne in round two. Henne will rate hihgly on Lewin's system and would be a great pick, but I don’t see him lasting until the middle of round two.

7
by B (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 6:54pm

Isn't this year's draft supposed to be very deep as far as QBs are concerned?

8
by Will B. (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 7:49pm

Against Ohio State and Florida he got absolutely pancaked by DEs on a few plays.

Vernon Gholsten of Ohio State probably moves up to a top ten pick largely on that game. Jake Long also probably falls out of the top five.

9
by nath (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 8:28pm

"The biggest surprise to me was that I got about four times as many questions about the draft and free agency as I got about this weekend’s four games."

Eight teams are still in the playoffs. Thirty-two teams have offseasons. "About four times as many" sounds about right to me.

(I know everyone beat me to it. I don't care.)

10
by Subrata Sircar (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2008 - 9:48pm

If you think the Patriots have a >50% chance to win the Super Bowl, that in turn implies that they have an 80% chance or so of winning each individual game (i.e. 4/5 * 4/5 * 4/5 =~ 51%). That seems ... actually, I'm not sure if that seems wrong to me. Certainly if the next game is Colts@NE, and someone gave me 4:1 on the Colts to win, I'd likely take that bet.

11
by Dan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2008 - 2:21am

The team everyone's been talking about is the Colts. After winning last year's Super Bowl, if anything they've gotten better, especially on defense. Is there anyone who can beat them? Who do you think has the best shot?

12
by Fergasun (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2008 - 9:16am

I enjoy reading your stuff MDS.

I suppose Mike Holmgren could give Alexander five carries a game or so, but really, any more than that is a mistake. The other running backs, Maurice Morris and Leonard Weaver, are better players at this point.

Ouch! He's got 6 more years on his contract too. Morris has 2 left, Seahawks need to start giving him some more carries (I agree he looked better than Alexander for most of the year).

Is he the answer for the Browns? Brady Quinn has a lot of promise, but I think Anderson has to be the starter in 2008. I don't see any type of blockbuster deal happening this off-season...

This one is tough. Talking with another poster of this sight he's convinced me you try to trade Andersen now while his value is high and get 2 draft picks, ideally in the 1st 3 rounds. I think Minnesota and Chicago would easily jump on this deal.

'd say it's about a 60 percent chance the Patriots win the Super Bowl
I disagree, I think their chances are less, 35%. Of course my rationale is something like, "gut" or "magic beans".

I think Schwartz would be a good choice for the Redskins, although I have a feeling Dan Snyder is going to end up going for someone with a bigger name.
His bigger name is Cowher, and Cowher is happy where he is (allegedly).

I disagree that Ware-Ellis are better than Strahan Umenyora. Couldn't we just call it a push?

I think it might very well be Kyle Orton. A lot can change between now and the moment in April when they're on the clock, but right now I do not think drafting a quarterback is the right move for the Bears.
YEGADS! Sorry Chicago fans... but really?! Really Orton showed you enough? Really? I mean considering they were going with Grossman it wouldn't surprise me... Lovie Smith is going to get fired for sticking to Grossman too long.

Thanks for being the most prolific football writer MDS... this thread should have more comments than a MMQB thread.

13
by zlionsfan (not verified) :: Wed, 01/16/2008 - 1:04pm

Re 6: personally, I don't think there's any question. You build both if you can, but the OL first if you have to choose. It is much better IMHO to have a solid OL and weakness at some combination of QB/WR/RB than to have a combination of skill there and a weak OL. I think it's also easier to fill the QB spot than to fill multiple spots on the OL.