Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

24 Sep 2009

Smarter Stats: Winning's A Brees?

This week's Smarter Stats article in the Washington Post looks at the relationship between great single games (as measured by DYAR) and league-leading seasons for quarterbacks.

Posted by: Doug Farrar on 24 Sep 2009

3 comments, Last at 24 Sep 2009, 11:49am by DaveRichters

Comments

1
by nat :: Thu, 09/24/2009 - 10:00am

I know you need to keep these articles short. If you had more space, wouldn't it have been better to compare great one-game performances to the DYAR for the other 15 games in the season? For all but Brady on the list, the big game DYAR was more than three times the average for the other 15 games, and was therefore a large part of the high total for the season.

Analogy: Does rolling double-sixes lead to a high average roll? Yes, but that doesn't indicate any bias towards rolling high numbers. But if rolling double-sixes indicates that other rolls will also be high, it's time to suspect loaded dice.

2
by bubqr :: Thu, 09/24/2009 - 11:27am

I know you need to keep these articles short. If you had more space, wouldn't it have been better to compare great one-game performances to the DYAR for the other 15 games in the season?

Exactly.

3
by DaveRichters (not verified) :: Thu, 09/24/2009 - 11:49am

Agreed. I would remove the one great game from (and all other QBs best game) from the analysis.