23 Jan 2009
This week's Washington Post column uses Pro Football Reference's Expected Wins, which does a Pythagorean projection for all Super Bowl teams going back to the Packers and Chiefs in 1966, to spot the five biggest disparities between Super Bowl winners with lower Estimated Wins than the teams they beat. The biggest gap happened last year (gosh, what a surprise), and the Colts-Bears Super Bowl is also included in the top five. Based on Arizona's and Pittsburgh's regular seasons, a Cardinals win in XLIII would be the second-biggest Pythag upset in Super Bowl history. Yeah, there's a recent trend going on here.
7 comments, Last at 27 Jan 2009, 8:42pm by chappy
Bill Connelly takes a look at the early-season S&P+ outliers and whether his eyeballs agree or disagree with the stats. Spoiler: Alabama is underrated. Alabama! Underrated!