Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

printable version

FO Goes Mainstream

Where our work appears on mainstream media outlets


21 Nov 2008

Dallas Morning News: Week 12 Questions

Apparently, according to the commenters at the Dallas Morning News site, fumble luck is a qualitative idea.

Posted by: Bill Barnwell on 21 Nov 2008

by billsfan :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 4:54pm

The commenters are generally cretins, but "Football Outhouse" made me LOL.

by Anonymous2 (not verified) :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 5:30pm

The commenters have a point. This site dying. It's become just a hype machine for book sales. The research is frequently wrong and the conclusions overreach. But the best comment is how cultish the readership has become. Very true.

by NewsToTom :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 6:29pm

New commenters may be treated harshly because they're making dull and uninteresting homer arguments that have already been addressed before. Frankly, it's quite dull the 8th time you're trying to convince somebody "fumble recoveries are random around a baseline" or "interceptions on quick slants aren't that more likely to be returned for a touchdown". This also leads to the commenters sounding more like FO homers than they are. Note also that commenters at FO are self-selected-if I didn't buy at least some of what they're offering, whether in terms of stats or methodology, then I wouldn't spend as much time here.

Note also, however, that all FO stats must be read "in the context of everything else." For example, I like Adjusted Line Yards as a stat, because I think the adjustment is a fairly logical way to break down yards between the OL and the RB. I'm less convinced, however, that breaking down ALY by direction is any more than a hint at what's going on-the dynamic equilibrium of 11v11 in a fluid environment makes definitive statements of that type particularly difficult.

by BlueStarDude :: Fri, 11/21/2008 - 10:05pm

Bill, I think you're dead on re: the Cowboy's Pro Bowl caliber players this season.

I have Ratliff, Ware, and Witten as definites: they're simply the best players at their positions in the NFC this year.

I had been voting for Portis, Jacobs, and Westbrook for RB, but this week I've started voting for Barber instead of Westbrook.

I haven't voted for Leonard Davis at all, but I agree he has been Dallas's best lineman. I have Snee and Kendall as definites with the other Giants guard Rich Seubert usually getting my third vote.

What was weird was seeing Dr. Z mentioning Columbo in his mid-season all-pro column. I respect Z's opinion, and Columbo hasn't been as bad as some people think, but I can't imagine he's the best RT in the league this year. I've cast a few votes for Kareem McKenzie but none for Columbo.

I've thought about voting for Newman (haven't though) only because he deserved to make it in 2005 and 2006, but now he's hurt again, so there's no way I can justify it.

P.S. I don't like TO (never have and never will), and it's clear his skills have diminished at least a bit, but he was getting open in the three Romo-less games. BJ was checking down even when he had sufficient time (Jaws even broke down one of these plays on NFL MatchUp a few weeks ago).

Post new comment

The content of this field is kept private and will not be shown publicly.
  • Web page addresses and e-mail addresses turn into links automatically.
  • Allowed HTML tags: <a> <em> <strong> <cite> <code> <ul> <ol> <li> <dl> <dt> <dd>
  • Lines and paragraphs break automatically.

More information about formatting options

CAPTCHA
To skip this, please log in.