Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

15 Sep 2006

FO on Rotoworld: Week 2

Tim Gerheim offers some start-and-sit recommendations for Week 2, and scares Rotoworld readership with disturbing concepts like PAR and VOA.

Posted by: Tim Gerheim on 15 Sep 2006

33 comments, Last at 20 Sep 2006, 9:17am by senser81

Comments

1
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:00pm

First!

(just to piss off Nate :-) )

2
by B (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:04pm

Not First!

3
by Adam H. (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:05pm

Fourth....oh crap

4
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:12pm

His (Ronnie Brown's) good fantasy score obscured the fact that the Steelers totally shut down the Miami running game.

Is that really true? They definitely weren't able to do much in the first half of the game, but I got the impression while watching it that Brown started getting consistently better carries as the game wore on. Was that just my brain screwing with me again? At the time I thougt it was one of those deals where the running game started to wear down the defense as the game went on.

5
by Adam H. (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:14pm

What about Shockey verses the Eagles? They haven't been particularly good against the TE as of late and Shockey's game seems to be improving.

6
by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:24pm

If by "not particularly good against TEs" you mean "eighth in the league last year", sure.

Shockey blew up in one of the two games last year. The other game he had 1 catch (well, a 1 yard TD catch, but it was only 1 catch). And the only reason he blew up in the first game is that they threw to him like mad: something like 20 throws (of which only 10 were complete, and 2 were intercepted).

I don't know if they'll go after Shockey that much in this game. It should've been clear in film that although he got yardage that game, Shockey was a liability, not a benefit, that game.

7
by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:25pm

first = second in that post. Oops.

8
by JasonK (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 3:28pm

Also, Shockey will be playing through his usual nagging lower-leg ailment. (This time it's an ankle sprain.)

9
by Adam H. (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 4:14pm

Pat, so why the disatisfaction with Dhani Jones. It was my impression (perhaps wrong) that Dhani was decent against the run but missed alot of assignments in coverage. Jason Witten also seems to put up big numbers aginst the Eagles. And unless I miss my guess, Dawkins and Lewis are gonna have thier hands full covering deeper passes.

10
by Adam H. (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 4:16pm

Note, I am a huge Eagles fan and don't play fantasy anymore because I don't like rooting against my team. I ask for my roommate who has no morals.

11
by dryheat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 4:20pm

Are any of the three experts shown in the red box old enough to vote?

12
by dryheat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 4:26pm

Regarding the Patriots' secondary, while you're not incorrect to suggest they're don't exactly intimidate offensive co-ordinators, keep your eye on CB Ellis Hobbs. He's much, much better in coverage than Ty Law was at this point in his career. I also think Eugene Wilson's regression last year was due largely to having to take over Rodney's duties. We'll see on that point.

13
by MRH (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 4:30pm

Ahman Green vs. New Orleans - Green and the Packers were able to run reasonably effectively against the Bears, posting the fourth-highest rush PAR last week.

Last week, before Packers got far behind, Green ran for 53 yds on 14 carries, including getting stuffed for no gain on 3 and 1 - twice. He also had some decent runs as far as PAR as concerned, but overall I'm not sure his PAR was very good before the game got out of hand. It would be interesting to know.

Then, with the Pack behind by 20 or more, and running from the shotgun (except the 9 yard run that ended the game), Green gained 57 yards on 6 carries. I'd think that boosted his PAR a tad. Anyhow, he was clearly more effective in conventional stats when running from a passing formation in a passing situation than in situations where the defense had a reason to expect a run.

If it were me, Saints or no Saints, I'd sit Green if I had viable options. Unless you think the Pack will get down by 20 and run a bunch from the shotgun in the 4th qtr...

14
by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 4:51pm

Pat, so why the disatisfaction with Dhani Jones. It was my impression (perhaps wrong) that Dhani was decent against the run but missed alot of assignments in coverage.

I don't have dissatisfaction with Dhani Jones - most Eagles fans do. I think most Eagles fans don't realize what the job of Philly's linebackers are. It's not that important for Philly's linebackers to prevent a pass to a TE, etc. It's most important for them to slow the TE enough for a safety to get there, considering the safeties are really, really good. If you look at the NYG/PHI game where Shockey had a bajillion passes targeted at him, essentially all of the tackles are either Trotter, Lewis, or Dawkins.

I mean, I don't think Dhani is great, but on most of the plays where he attempts to tackle a guy and misses, just the fact that he's in the right position and slowed the other guy down some was enough for Lewis/Dawkins to come in and make the tackle.

It'd be nice if he could bring down the guy, but with the speed and tackling ability of Philly's safeties, I'd rather have a guy who's not that great of a tackler but always in the right position rather than the reverse.

15
by Nate (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 4:57pm

Damn you Wanker!!!

16
by CaffeineMan (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 5:21pm

Well, if I'm supposed to sit my only kicker, who should I pick up off waivers?

Gould (CHI, vs DET)
Carney (NO, @GB)
Reed (PIT, @JAX)
Hall (WAS, @DAL)
Nedney (SF, )
Longwell (MIN)
Lindell (BUF, @MIA)
Mare (MIA, vs BUF)
Koenen (ATL, vs TB)
Scobee (JAX, vs PIT)
Hanson (DET, @CHI)
Gostkowski (NE, @NYJ)

17
by dryheat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 5:24pm

Pat,

You can't be serious, can you? The job of the Eagles linebackers is not to break up passes or make tackles? They're instructed to let the receiver catch the ball and limit his YAC until Dawkins or Lewis arrives? I find that hard to believe that's part of the Johnson defense.

18
by Bill (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 5:36pm

Running back PAR is referenced in the comment about the Dolphins.

Is the week 1 PAR by position posted anywhere on FO.com? I haven't seen it yet.

19
by dryheat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 5:58pm

I'll tell ya....I'm neither Catholic nor Single. However....

20
by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 6:08pm

You can’t be serious, can you? The job of the Eagles linebackers is not to break up passes or make tackles?

I didn't say that. I said it's not that important for them - at least, not compared to being in position. With a pressure defense, if the linebackers are out of position, with the corners one-on-one, there's a lot of potential for completely busted plays if someone's out of position.

Obviously you want them to make tackles. But you want them in position more, because if the ball carrier has room to run, there's a good chance they'll be able to find a seam in the secondary.

They’re instructed to let the receiver catch the ball and limit his YAC until Dawkins or Lewis arrives?

No, of course not. But for the outside linebackers, being out of position and letting a guy get behind you is far worse than missing a tackle, because more often than not, there's only one safety deep. And so you play off the receiver, not close. Giving up the short slants that get quickly tackled is a lot safer than giving up a short slant that goes to a touchdown because the linebacker tried to make a big play.

21
by Nate (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 6:23pm

CaffeineMan - Gould is solid gold. Also, our red zone offense looked pretty crappy last week. He wouldn't be a bad pickup.

22
by Fnor (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 7:24pm

MHR: PAR adjusts for situation. The point differential and time left in the game are taken into account.

23
by Ilanin (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 9:39pm

22 - this is true, but a performance significantly above that of a replacement level running back when your team is in a passing situation because they're down by several scores is of equal value to in PAR terms to a performance significantly above replacement level when it actually matters. However, it is significantly less useful to the team. Not, of course, than the fantasy owners care one way or the other, unless they also happen to be Packers fans (but I think most Packers fans have already given up on this season).

24
by Cristian (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 10:02pm

Rod Smith, Wali Lundy, or Antonio Bryant, which two should I start?

Point per reception league.

25
by Pat (not verified) :: Fri, 09/15/2006 - 10:09pm

However, it is significantly less useful to the team.

Well, when a team for all practical purposes has lost the game, basically nothing is useful to them. But you can't just ignore performances in those situations. You just have to properly normalize them.

Also, the statistic given before is wrong - Green Bay wasn't down by 20 or more until Hester's return, and two of Green's passes that MRH listed were on the drive before that.

26
by Theo (not verified) :: Sat, 09/16/2006 - 8:57am

Wow, that first drive of the Texans vs the Eagles was GOOD!

27
by Fnor (not verified) :: Sat, 09/16/2006 - 11:40am

Wali Lundy? Are we sure he's getting the majority of the touches this week?

28
by compucrazy (not verified) :: Sat, 09/16/2006 - 1:23pm

Wow based on that Article I have some decisions to make. Start Wali Lundy or Frank Gore. Oh and I have both the Detroit D and the Atlanta D, which one do I start? Does anyone know the status on John Abraham?

29
by Cristian (not verified) :: Sat, 09/16/2006 - 2:58pm

Well I went back to look at his picks for last week (granted those were based on pre-season projections and these are based on first week PAR and DVOA),,,but I'm probably going to stick with my gut on this one and say Lundy has to prove something first before I "start" him.

The picks from the first week were...well, very bad.

30
by Tim R (not verified) :: Sat, 09/16/2006 - 5:16pm

re 28
I would definately start Gore ahead of Lundy if i were you, even if Lundys up against a suspect Colts run d. Gore is a stud running back he is just hidden because the 9ers suck.

Abraham will be our until week 4 in all likelihood but i still think its a bit of a toss up between atlanta and detroit althouh id probably go with atlanta.

31
by CaffeineMan (not verified) :: Sun, 09/17/2006 - 1:53am

Nate, I'll give that a shot.

32
by CaffeineMan (not verified) :: Mon, 09/18/2006 - 2:05pm

Hey thanks Nate, that was good advice on Gould. Also a good advice by Tim to sit Tynes.

33
by senser81 (not verified) :: Wed, 09/20/2006 - 9:17am

Some great advice given in that article. Starting Bulger over Eli Manning, starting Wali Lundy over Fred Taylor, and starting the Lions defense.

Here is my fantasy football strategy...start good players, sit mediocre players.