Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

14 Oct 2006

FO on Rotoworld: Week 6

Bye weeks killing your fantasy team? You and everybody else. Including Tim Gerheim, who chimes in with this week's FO stat-based start and sit recommendations.

Posted by: Tim Gerheim on 14 Oct 2006

14 comments, Last at 16 Oct 2006, 6:45pm by Smeghead

Comments

1
by Becephalus (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 2:13am

I think I need to stick with Mare, Rackers can't really be counted on can he?

2
by Peter (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 3:42am

Hmm... so does this mean I should really start Cotchery over Gore? I'm skeptical, despite the matchups.

3
by BillWallace (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 4:57am

Well I picked up Rivers to fill in for Bye Bye Brady. But I only have room for one non-bye player on my bench and it has to be either Gore vs SD, your sit, or my choice, LJordan Vs Denver.

I also chose Eagles D vs NO rather than dropping the Eagles.

4
by jurb (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 8:37am

How can you not start Robbie Gould week on end until he proves otherwise?

5
by sicksock (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 10:21am

Wow, discrepancy of the year... sit Torry Holt? Now I think FO does the best job of truely evaluating football that there is, but this one pushes the limit of trust. Another website, Fantasy Sports Central (not affiliated, I just like the numbers), ranks players by using a composite of 10 other site's rankings. They rank Torry Holt as the best WR this week. In fact he has an average ranking of 1.3 (the next closest is Chad Johnson at 3.9)

Now even if it's true that the Seahawks are the best defending against #1 recievers, does that really merit a benching? Is your #4 WR going to be better option than Holt this week? (In most 3WR leagues that is)

I'm hoping that the 'Sit vs Start' layout it just an oversimplification. Does he deserve a downgrade, sure. But I think sitting him would be a mistake. Of course now that I said this, he's going to have one catch for ten yards on Sunday =)

6
by Becephalus (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 2:00pm

I think the last part is right sick sock. A sit on Holt means expect 6 pts instead of 10.

7
by John Morgan (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 2:27pm

Yeah some of this is pretty funny.

I espcially like the "start Alge Crumpler" take. If you drafted Alge Crumpler--a top five TE--do you have any choice but to start him? Who were you going to start in his place, Z. Hilton?

8
by Andrew (not verified) :: Sat, 10/14/2006 - 4:19pm

Tim Gerheim:

I think the Eagles D is a start against the Saints.

Sacks against Dallas:
Eagles - 7 sacks + 1 intentional grounding + 1 fumble + 3 interceptions
Everyone else in 3 games - 3 sacks + 4 interceptions

Sacks against Giants:
Eagles - 8 sacks + 1 intentional grounding + 3 fumbles + 1 interception
Everyone else in 3 games - 1 sack + 4 interceptions

Sacks against Texans:
Eagles - 5 sacks
Everyone else in 3 games - 10 + 1 interception

Sacks against 49ers:
Eagles - 3 sacks
Chiefs - 5 sacks, 2 interceptions
Everyone else in 3 games - 1 sack, 1 interception

Sacks against Saints:
Eagles ????
Everyone else in 5 games - 6 + 2 interceptions

Hmmm ... do you think the trend might continue of a team that seemingly looks to have the sack situation under control suddenly feeling the heat when the Eagles come up?

9
by Cristian (not verified) :: Sun, 10/15/2006 - 2:25pm

Yeah...just in the first quarter of the game,,,looks like he was completely off on the Torry Holt thing...

I support the stats he uses, I just don't understand his blind use of the stats without some use of human logic...I mean picking W.Lundy as a must start in Week 2 when Lundy wasn't even the guy starting for the Texans just because they were playing the Colts that week, is a little much...Sample size my friend, learn it.

10
by compucrazy (not verified) :: Sun, 10/15/2006 - 5:10pm

Just wanted to give my sympathies to anyone who listened to the "bench Torry Holt" advice. usually DVOA is a great indicator but clearly it's not perfect.

11
by Faberge Egg (not verified) :: Sun, 10/15/2006 - 9:03pm

#4

I know he didn't set the world on fire today down in Tampa but I'd take CIN's Graham over Gould from here on out.

12
by Crushinator (not verified) :: Mon, 10/16/2006 - 2:41am

Hines Ward, Steve Smith, and Torry Holt, sit those guys. Start Rod Smith, Cotchery, and Randy Moss. Sit Jeremy Shockey.

Not a great week for the FO Rotoworld.

13
by Kal (not verified) :: Mon, 10/16/2006 - 10:53am

The good: starting Rivers, Kevin Jones, sitting Gore and Eagles defense. Sitting Elisha isn't so bad either.

The bad: Oy. Sitting Brees, starting Pennington. Sitting Dunn! Starting Moss and Cotchery, but sitting Smith and Holt. Sitting Shockey. And those weren't just meh bad, those were, like, horrific bad.

The Holt one just vexes me; while DVOA says that it's not a bad play, Holt has just owned Seattle for ever and ever. Especially at STL.

14
by Smeghead (not verified) :: Mon, 10/16/2006 - 6:45pm

I guess this counts as piling on, it being Monday and all, but really, in a fantasy league of two teams, Steve Smith and Torry Holt would start every single week regardless of matchup.

I know some "sits" are "this is Andrew Walters bad" and some are "pretty mediocre for your everyweek starter, so think about going with your #1a if you've got one," but one just can't fathom...