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24 May 2013

Four Downs: NFC West

by Andy Benoit

Arizona Cardinals

Biggest Post-Draft Hole: Tight end

Prior to the draft, conventional wisdom said that the Cardinals were in desperate need of more edge-rushing firepower, but they had even more desperate needs along the offensive line. New GM Steve Keim seemed to agree, making No. 7 pick Jonathan Cooper the first guard since Chris Naeole in 1997 to be drafted in the top 10. In the Friday rounds, Keim couldn’t resist the urge to fill less-pressing needs with risky-but-impressive athletes who have upside. He drafted inside linebacker Kevin Minter in round two and safety Tyrann Mathieu in round three. It was not until the round four that Keim came even close to addressing the pass rush, drafting Texas’s Alex Okafor with the sixth pick (103rd overall). Some would say he still didn’t address the pass rush; just like free agent pickup Lorenzo Alexander, Okafor’s value may be predominantly in his versatility and run defense, not in his ability to chase the quarterback.

On offense, there’s a far more troubling hole that Keim was not able to address at all: tight end. That’s a concern given that new head coach Bruce Arians runs a base scheme that’s built around two-tight end sets. When he was with the Steelers, Arians had a steady underneath pass-catcher and sound on-the-move run blocker in Heath Miller. He also had a solid in-line blocker in Matt Spaeth. With the Colts, he had Dwayne Allen (a more athletic but less experienced version of Miller), plus a respectable young seam receiver in Coby Fleener.

In Arizona, Arians has middling eighth-year veteran Jeff King and underdeveloped third-year pro Rob Housler. The top backup is undrafted fourth-year journeyman Kory Sperry, who played all of 22 offensive snaps last year. King and Housler both struggled mightily in run blocking last season, and only Housler has the necessary athleticism to become a viable weapon in the passing game. (And there’s no guarantee that he will.)

The good news is the arrival of Carson Palmer at least brings some stability to Arizona’s quarterback situation. That should help both tight ends. Also, it’s unlikely that Arians will ask King and Housler to win unfavorable one-on-one matchups as often as the previous regime did. But just because Arians will be more willing to schematically hide his tight ends’ weaknesses doesn’t mean those weaknesses still won’t hinder this offense. There will be parts of Arians’ playbook that will have to go untouched this season. Ultimately, in order for his system to be fully maximized, more talent must be infused at the tight end spots.

Notable Undrafted Free Agent Additions

The Cardinals brought in 16 undrafted rookies. Among them is tight end Kevin Auffray, who is 24 and, in his last-ditch effort to make the NFL, emerged from the Super Regional Combine. Prior to that spring affair, Auffray had a deal to play in Warsaw, Poland.

Also in the group is Dan Giordano, a Cincinnati linebacker who, at 260 pounds, has the size and strength to be a serviceable playside run defender. The purported concern with him is a lack of athleticism. Rounding out the group are Jamaal Johnson-Webb and Joe Caprioglio, two offensive linemen who will likely have to prove they can play multiple positions in order to make the team.

St. Louis Rams

Biggest Post-Draft Hole: Defensive back

The Rams’ "hole" is really more like a "faulty surface." Upon initial glance, there are no glaring issues with their secondary. But upon closer inspection, you see several soft spots that could seemingly collapse under the right amount of pressure. Only time will tell if those soft spots can solidify or if they’ll have to be patched over.

Right now the only sure-thing in St. Louis’ defensive backfield is cornerback Cortland Finnegan. The eight-year veteran is a physical, flexible cover artist who can play man or zone both outside and in the slot. After Finnegan, question marks abound. Second-year corner Janoris Jenkins is obviously talented, but can he mature? Last season he had four interceptions, 14 passes defensed, and four total touchdown returns, but he also got suspended a game for violating team rules and endured a midseason slump where he struggled with inconsistent technique, including in man coverage (which is supposed to be his forte).

On the second string, the jury is still very much out on Trumaine Johnson, a 2012 third-round pick who primarily has seen action as an outside nickelback. Projected at the dime corner spot is Brandon McGee, a fifth-round rookie.

The Rams are banking even more on another rookie at safety: third-round pick T.J. McDonald. The son of former 49er Tim McDonald turned some heads with his versatility and hard hitting at USC, though some respected analysts thought he looked undisciplined and lost in Monte Kiffin’s scheme. No one was particularly impressed with McDonald’s showing at the Senior Bowl. His perceived "riskiness" would not be hugely concerning if the Rams had even middling depth at safety, but no other safety on their roster was even drafted. One of those undrafted guys is fourth-year pro Darian Stewart, who started 13 games in 2011 but led Football Outsiders' count with 19 broken tackles before losing his job to Craig Dahl last season. With Dahl now in San Francisco and 32-year-old veteran Quintin Mikell a street free agent, Stewart is suddenly thrust into a leadership role at his position.

None of the players covered here are particularly awful, but all of them are young and of "boom-or-bust" ilk. And when one domino in a secondary falls, others usually follow. That’s just the nature of pass coverage. The reason the Rams are willing to roll the dice with youth here is that they believe their budding defensive line – which features a star in Chris Long and a pair of soon-to-be stars in Michael Brockers and Robert Quinn -– can consistently generate quick pressure on quarterbacks.

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

GM Les Snead threw a lot of wet noodles against the wall after the draft, signing 22 free agent rookies. All of them have reason for hope; last season, the Rams went into Week 1 with 17 rookies on their roster, eight of whom were undrafted. This is a team willing to rebuild with youth. What’s noteworthy (or maybe just purely a coincidence) is 16 of St. Louis 22 undrafted rookies are from Southern schools. Snead grew up in Alabama, played football at Troy State and Auburn, worked as a graduate assistant at Auburn (’92-’93), an administrative assistant at Louisiana Tech (’94-’95) and spent the first 16 years of his NFL career with the Jacksonville Jaguars and Atlanta Falcons. In short, he’s a southern guy. The headliner of this year’s undrafted class is Ray Ray Armstrong, a safety who was considered a bright prospect before getting dismissed from the University of Miami and being ruled ineligible to play at the NAIA level. The Rams are projecting Armstrong at linebacker. Also in the mix is Phillip Lutzenkirchen, a tight end from Auburn who had his senior season truncated by a hip injury but had more touchdowns than letters in his name in the three years prior to that.

San Francisco 49ers

Biggest Post-Draft Hole: Nose tackle

The best and second-best 3-4 inside linebackers in football are Patrick Willis and NaVorro Bowman (or NaVorro Bowman and Patrick Willis, depending on one’s personal preference). Perhaps this would be the case if they played elsewhere, but when watching film it's very clear that both linebackers benefit greatly from playing behind a blocker-eating defensive line. Niners defensive end Justin Smith does not just draw double teams, he commands them. Often, Smith’s job amounts to penetrating inside against an offensive tackle and grabbing hold of a guard. The goal is to prevent interior offensive linemen from pulling in man-blocking or sliding in zone-blocking. Underappreciated end Ray McDonald plays a similar brand of football opposite Smith.

The Niners acknowledged the significance of the defensive ends in their scheme by shoring up the immediate depth here with the signing of Glenn Dorsey in March. The ex-Chiefs end was brought in to replace backup Ricky Jean-Francois, whom general manager Trent Baalke knew the club would not be able to retain. (He's now with the Colts.) Baalke also invested in the long-term at this position by drafting Florida State’s Tank Carradine in the second round.

While defensive end gets all the attention in San Francisco, the nose tackle is also responsible for keeping Willis and Bowman clean against the run. The Niners had an excellent nose in Isaac Sopoaga, a strong 10-year veteran who moves extremely well. However, the 330-pound free agent was lured to Philadelphia, where Chip Kelly and defensive coordinator Bob Sutton are installing a new 3-4 scheme.

Ostensibly, the Niners were not particularly fond of any nose tackle prospects in this year’s draft, as they had a bevy of picks but did not make a play at this position until the fifth round, where they took Quinton Dial. The Alabama product will need some time to develop, which means the man set to replace Sopoaga in 2013 is Ian Williams, an undrafted third-year pro who played just 32 defensive snaps last year.

An optimist would assume that the 49ers must really like Williams. After all, with him on the roster, they made minimal effort at replenishing their nose tackle position. A realist would say the Niners do not prioritize the nose tackle position, which is why they felt it was more important to draft replacements for departed veterans at other spots like safety (Eric Reid, first round, for Dashon Goldson), tight end (Vance McDonald, second round, for Delanie Walker), and wide receiver (Quinton Patton, fourth round, for Randy Moss). This makes sense. As important as the nose tackle is to San Francisco’s run defense, schematically it’s not as important as the defensive end. And, on passing downs, the nose tackle is irrelevant, as he gets replaced with a nickel corner.

This is an illustration of why the Niners are once again a leading Super Bowl contender in the NFC: their biggest hole is, not coincidentally, at their least important position.

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

Of the Niners’ 12 undrafted rookies, defensive lineman Lawrence Okoye and offensive tackle Luke Marquardt are getting the most pub. Okoye, a native of England, is an outstanding athlete with no football experience. The 303-pounder got on the NFL’s radar after attending the Super Regional Combine at Cowboys Stadium, where he posted solid workout numbers. His main athletic background is in discuss throwing, where he finished 12th in the 2012 Olympics. Marquardt was first-team all-NAIA at Azusa Pacific in 2011. He sat out the 2012 season due to injury. Other notable signings for San Francisco included Minnesota H-back MarQueis Gray, Boise State running back D.J. Harper, Utah State wide receiver Chuck Jacobs, and Stanford fullback Alex Debniak.

Seattle Seahawks

Biggest Post-Draft Hole: Vertical wide receiver

In the Jack Black movie Shallow Hal, Jason Alexander’s character has a debilitating urge to find a flaw in even the most beautiful of women. At one point he rejects a stunning, long-legged girl’s invitation to a Beatles reunion concert because he can’t overlook that the girl’s second toe happens to be just a tad longer than all her other toes.

Writing about the Seahawks’ remaining "holes" feels akin to Alexander’s fixation on a beautiful girl’s long toe. On offense, the Seahawks feature a dynamic rushing attack, diverse passing game, rising young multidimensional quarterback, and a solid front line. On defense they’re deep and talented up front, young and athletic in the middle, and unquestionably better than everyone else on the back end. Both sides of the ball have tremendous depth and a scheme that fits the personnel.

But if one must pick nits, then one could identify a lack of straight-line speed at wide receiver as Seattle’s long second toe. Yes, newly-acquired Percy Harvin has terrific speed. His acceleration is even better. But Harvin’s build and skill set are those of an underneath, move-oriented playmaker, not a pure nine-route blazer. Harvin probably could lift a safety on vertical patterns, but there’s a reason he was rarely used this way during his four years in Minnesota. The Seahawks brought him in to be a more dangerous version of Antwaan Randle-El, not another version of Randy Moss.

Players like Harvin are drastically more potent when there is an explosive vertical threat opposite them. Sidney Rice would have qualified as such a threat early in his career, but a variety of injuries -– including a serious one to his hip in 2010 –- have taken some of the edge off his speed. Rice can still get himself open, but unlike a true burner who can simply line up as the X-receiver and go!, he’s now somewhat dependent on help from play design. Doug Baldwin and Golden Tate are the same way. Behind them, fourth-round pick Chris Harper is a well-sized athlete who is said to have good body control and ball-tracking instincts, but many scouts have griped that he’s not overly explosive and only plays with one speed.

To be clear, the absence of a pure vertical threat will not be a significant hindrance to Seattle’s loaded offense. There are plenty of other weapons here to use. But given the team’s collection of move-oriented receivers, plus the fact that Russell Wilson might have the best pure deep ball in the NFL, you can bet GM John Schneider would love to find a veritable downfield weapon on the outside.

Notable Undrafted Free Agents

The Seahawks are a playoff team that had 11 draft picks this past April, which means there may not be a lot of roster spots available for undrafted rookies. (Players and agents understand this, so it might be fair to surmise that Seattle probably did not get the cream of the undrafted crop.) But the Seahawks also understand that you never know when you’re going to bump into the next Brandon Browner. The two most recognizable names from their nine-man undrafted class are linebacker John Lotulelei (UNLV’s team’s defensive MVP last year ... he’s NOT related to Star) and offensive tackle Alvin Bailey (a 26-game starter for Arkansas). Some rated Bailey as a late-round prospect, and he entered the draft pool with a year of eligibility still on the table. He’ll have a decent chance to make the final roster, as Seattle’s only depth at tackle is seventh-round rookie Michael Bowie and 2011 seventh-rounder Mike Person.

(Parts of this article originally appeared on ESPN Insider. Please note that the article was written prior to the Michael Crabtree injury for San Francisco.)

Posted by: Andy Benoit on 24 May 2013

68 comments, Last at 17 Apr 2014, 7:10am by Andi

Comments

1
by Dean :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 12:34pm

There is a lot of talk in St Louis about re-signing Mikell. Not sure how much of it is media fluff and how much comes from the team, so who knows if it'll actually happen or not. If he does resign, that would make me a lot more comfortable with the defense. If they can solidify the safety spot and stay healthy, this defense has a chance to be very, very good.

2
by Karl Cuba :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 1:26pm

Agreed, all the defenses in the NFC West are really tough. Off the top of my head I can't recall a division with defenses this nasty all at once.

10
by Aaron Brooks Go... :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 3:27pm

1980s NFC East, with the Cowboys, Skins, Eagles, and Giants?

64
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69
by Andi :: Thu, 04/17/2014 - 7:10am
3
by Pat49 (not verified) :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 1:40pm

Matt Maiocco, from CSN Bay Area, is saying that Dorsey will get more time at nose than Williams.

6
by bravehoptoad :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 1:59pm

Also worth noting that they just extended Williams with $1 million guaranteed, so they do obviously like him.

9
by Karl Cuba :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 2:08pm

My impression is that they would love Williams to win that job. I'm hoping he could be this year's Alex Boone, a low round/undrafted prospect who was coached up for a while before being promoted to the starting lineup.

68
by Bokep-ID :: Tue, 04/01/2014 - 11:45pm
4
by Vince Verhei :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 1:46pm

While I would have gone with offensive line as the biggest need for Seattle, deep receiver is also a good choice. Harvin is mainly a slants-and-screens guy, and neither Tate nor Rice is going to draw an automatic double-team or force safeties to play deep just by their presence on the field.

That said, the team with the best DVOA on deep passes last year was ... the Seattle Seahawks.

This is not to pick on Andy -- he made it clear that it was a tough to find a hole, and I totally understand his logic. I'm just pointing out how shrewd (and lucky) Seattle has been at acquiring talent, and how deep the roster is.

7
by Karl Cuba :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 2:03pm

The high DVOA deep passes could also be a result of their strong run game. PFF had Kaepernick as the most effective deep passer, which again would be at least partly due to the effects of a strong run game.

11
by Vince Verhei :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 3:35pm

Absolutely true. And Andy pointed out that the game-panning had a lot to do with it, and that Wilson was an excellent deep passer.

15
by theslothook :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 4:16pm

Karl referencing pff???? Can't be! obviously its some kind of impostor!

16
by Karl Cuba :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 4:58pm

I have always said that some of their stuff is worth a look and that they turn their stats around with impressive alacrity. Their stats on passing by sector are undeniably useful.

17
by theslothook :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 5:16pm

You just don't like the grades? I can get behind that.

5
by Ryan D. :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 1:54pm

Wouldn't the biggest hole in Seattle be for team pharmicist?

8
by Karl Cuba :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 2:04pm

Evidence points to that position being more than adequately filled.

12
by young curmudgeon :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 3:43pm

"His main athletic background is in discuss throwing, where he finished 12th in the 2012 Olympics."

I guess we can surmise that he talks a good game...

21
by rfh1001 :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 3:33am

I'm pretty sure he was nearly a professional rugby player. At wing, which is more receiver meets RB than anything else... No guarantees but he's really good at games and learns fast. (He also does talk pretty well.)

25
by Mr Shush :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 7:04am

He also has an offer to read law at Oxford, so I think it's fair to conclude he ain't dumb.

26
by Thunderbolt of ... :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 12:15pm

You sure he played wing? A 303-lb wing would be a sight to behold. Jonah Lomu is the most freakish-sized wing I've ever seen, and he was 275 lbs.

30
by rfh1001 :: Sun, 05/26/2013 - 3:54am

Big fast black kid. In the mind of a certain kind of school and club coach, the big fast black kid plays wing, because that's where the prominent black rugby union players were, for reasons which [obvious]

As he gets older, and bigger, he still finds himself on the wing. At this point, he doesn't weigh what he does before he spends two years bulking up for Olympic discus-throwing.

(I'm going by press reports; but it seems totally plausible.)

13
by Thok :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 3:48pm

Even given that this article was written before Crabtree was injured, it got the Niners biggest post-draft hole wrong. You should have written about their generic need for depth behind their starters in case the Niners injury luck goes bad.

Of course, the Crabtree injury makes that point better than an article would.

14
by jimbohead :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 4:05pm

This has been more than adequately discussed on the Crabtree XP thread, but my opinion as a fan is that the Crabtree injury does not expose lack of depth at the position. The niners have 3 decent receivers behind crabtree (Boldin, Manningham, Williams). Though two of them are coming off season-ending injuries, typical rehab would have them at or near 100% by training camp. Behind them we have a 1st rd pick who hasn't had much of a shot at doing anything (and who may in fact be a bust, but we don't really know), and a draft pick this year that Harbaugh apparently loves (but who doesn't love their own draft pick?).

The problem isn't that there's no depth; the problem is that there's ONLY depth. Crabtree's injury hurts because he's a special player, and there are no other really special players at the position for the niners, just a bunch of guys that make good #2 and #3 receivers.

20
by Thok :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 1:48am

When I talk about the generic need for depth, I don't mean they need more depth at wide receiver; I mean they need more depth at every position in case they can't play the relevant starter close to 99% of the snaps. zthe injury to Crabtree has roughly the same impact as a potential injury to Bowman or Carlos Rogers or Joe Staley or Aldon Smith or about 20 other starters.

32
by bravehoptoad :: Mon, 05/27/2013 - 2:19pm

Hmm. All of those injuries seem like they would have quite different consequences. When Willis was injured, Grant stepped in and did pretty well, so I assume he'd have done the same for Bowman. An injury to Staley wouldn't be so bad, because Boone was always a great tackle, and the 9ers seem to like their depth at guard, Looney or Kilgore. Aldon Smith going out would have been disastrous, because all they had at OLB was that old guy from the Cardinals...don't even recall his name. I assume that's why Smith played through his rotator cuff problem. I don't think losing Carlos Rogers would have been too big of a deal, because last year wasn't his best year, and the 9ers seem to have a bunch of guys who are all decent if not great DBs, like Cox and Spillman.

So, I don't really know what "generic depth" is supposed to mean. Wouldn't any team be hurt if their stars go out? If they weren't hurt by it, they wouldn't be stars, right?

34
by jimbohead :: Tue, 05/28/2013 - 11:55am

The Aldon Smith situation last year was really weird in any case, because they lost the guy he was supposedly going to share snaps with in training camp (Harylson), and then lost the backup for the OLB that they drafted in the same camp. It's hard to have good depth at a position when both depth players get injured, and I challenge you to find any team that has more than two quality backups at OLB.

The niners are pretty deep at a number of positions. DB seems like one, though it's hard to really know, and RB seems like another one. The niners seem to have been planning Gore's retirement for 3 years now.

28
by PUMA (not verified) :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 3:16pm

49ers depth , I would not consider Boldin, Manningham, Williams behind him as backing Crabtree up . More like instead of Crabtree & Boldin as two starters in the 2WR sets it is Boldin & Manningham . Also instead of Crabtree , Boldin and Manningham in 3WR it is Boldin , Manningham & Williams .
I think I would prefer first pair or trio as to latter . If Boldin is as good as Crabtree , then safe to say staus quo to 2012 season . As for Jenkins , last year could be rookie aclimation , this year could be either sophmore slump or fully up to NFL speed or ( like Crabtree ) take a few years to click . He is a bit of a wildcard.
Boldin in this system could be better , worse or the same ( which is pretty damn good ) . Has nothing to do with quality of the system as much as the fit . We have seen UFAs go several ways . The only know exception is Peyton . He never seems to have to fit ANY system . Cripes he IS the system LOL
....PS same injury suffered by Seattle TE except he was #2TE last years and early glimpse at OTAs show their drafted TE had a great shot of pushing him to #3

18
by Theo :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 5:51pm

"an outside nickelback"
Is that a guy that plays on the outside in nickle packages where the starter goes to the nickel/slot?

22
by CBPodge :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 4:27am

Yeah. In the rams nickel package Cortland Finnegan shifts inside, Trumaine Johnson comes on and plays outside.

19
by DA (not verified) :: Fri, 05/24/2013 - 6:31pm

I still contend the Biggest Hole for STL is QB and their WR's also remain a Gigantic Question Mark. Bradford has never come close to being anything special and their passing offense has been anemic for years. Yes, they have some highly drafted players at these positions but so far that has amounted for almost nothing.

23
by CBPodge :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 4:36am

"Yes, they have some highly drafted players at these positions but so far that has amounted for almost nothing."

How much do you expect it to amount too so far? The highly drafted players are Brian Quick (33rd overall last year) and this year's 1st and 3rd, Austin and Bailey (who obviously haven't played a snap yet). I guess you can add to that Lance Kendricks, a 2nd round TE from the 2011 draft.

Quick was known to be hugely raw. When he came to the Senior Bowl he looked lost in drills. Coaches asked why and he told them that he'd never done any of the drills they were doing before.

Kendricks last year spent most of his time blocking because our OL was rancid. Despite that, he still had the best season receiving that a Rams tight end has had since the mid 90s.

Yeah, they don't have many guys on the roster who have produced much, but how much can you expect from a raw rookie and a TE who spent much of his time blocking?

24
by CBPodge :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 4:38am

"Yes, they have some highly drafted players at these positions but so far that has amounted for almost nothing."

How much do you expect it to amount too so far? The highly drafted players are Brian Quick (33rd overall last year) and this year's 1st and 3rd, Austin and Bailey (who obviously haven't played a snap yet). I guess you can add to that Lance Kendricks, a 2nd round TE from the 2011 draft.

Quick was known to be hugely raw. When he came to the Senior Bowl he looked lost in drills. Coaches asked why and he told them that he'd never done any of the drills they were doing before.

Kendricks last year spent most of his time blocking because our OL was rancid. Despite that, he still had the best season receiving that a Rams tight end has had since the mid 90s.

Yeah, they don't have many guys on the roster who have produced much, but how much can you expect from a raw rookie and a TE who spent much of his time blocking?

33
by Sifter :: Mon, 05/27/2013 - 8:36pm

Well to be fair, the Rams drafted Chris Givens (top of 4th round in 2012) and Austin Pettis (3rd round in 2011) as well. Perhaps not 'high' by your definition, but they should come into consideration, and certainly fit the theme of throwing too many draft picks at a problem area. A 4th round WR should project to at least be your 3rd WR in time. Bottom line is they've drafted 6 WRs in the top 100 picks in the last 4 drafts. Rams badly needed a decent veteran WR in my view...even if it's just someone to mentor all these WR draft picks and aid their development (might help Bradford too who has stagnated a bit). Probably too late to add one now.

27
by hedonic (not verified) :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 2:20pm

Alvin Bailey played for Arkansas, not Alabama.

29
by darnell (not verified) :: Sat, 05/25/2013 - 7:43pm

With the McCoy injury Seattle needs another TE capable of blocking, as I think they see Willson more as a burner/athlete at TE as opposed to a complete TE like Miller. Wouldn't be surprised to see a vet thrown in the mix.

31
by Dan :: Sun, 05/26/2013 - 5:12pm

I see "Biggest Post-Draft Hole: Tight end" as glowing praise for the Cardinals' offseason. Midway through last season, I would've put TE about 6th on the list of their holes on offense, behind QB, LT, RT, RG, and maybe HB. Now they still have some questions at many of those positions, but their only really blatant hole is their blocking TE. That's a productive offseason.

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