Bill Connelly takes a look at the early-season S&P+ outliers and whether his eyeballs agree or disagree with the stats. Spoiler: Alabama is underrated. Alabama! Underrated!
20 Jan 2006
by Aaron Schatz
For the final three games of the season, we're putting the championship previews on FOXSports.com. Don't worry, they are the same complex FO previews you know and love. Even the colorful week-to-week DVOA charts are there.
We've created one thread to discuss the actual previews themselves, or you can discuss the games in the separate threads we've set up for each conference championship:
While I've got this space, however, I wanted to answer a couple of mailbag questions, one related to each game.
I understand the reversal on the Broncos pass defense from a DVOA approach but am a little confused as to how the run defense is also reversed. While I concur that the NFL statistical rankings based on yardage are infantile I still can't get past the rushing defense as "middling" being accurate for the Broncos. If weighted adjustment allows for the longer runs being carried out against "prevent type" defense settings where the Broncos have held comfortable leads as opposed to say the desired goal of acheiving a first down does this impact the analysis?
Rob Visser - Port of Spain, Trinidad
I thought this would provide an interesting look at how DVOA differs from the straight NFL ratings, so let's work through this gradually.
The other question was asked in a discussion thread two weeks ago, and I can't remember who asked it or even which thread it was. Anyway, somebody wanted to know how the late-season surge by the 2005 Carolina Panthers compares to the late-season surge by the 2003 Carolina Panthers. That chart below has both seasons, game by game.
If you are interested in the NFC Championship game, you also might want to check out this long, extensive interview I gave to Seahawks.net.
26 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2006, 4:05pm by charles