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» Film Room: Chris Harris

Is Harris one of the league's top cover corners, or a product of the system in which he plays? Cian Fahey says the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

11 Jan 2013

AFC Divisional Round Preview

by Aaron Schatz

Nothing is ever guaranteed in the NFL. There is a reason for the phrase "any given Sunday." The history of the NFL postseason, in particular the recent history, is filled with surprising upsets. Nevertheless, it is difficult to remember a year when one conference championship game seemed as predetermined as the New England Patriots at the Denver Broncos, aka Brady-Manning XIV. The Patriots and Broncos finished as two of the top dozen teams in DVOA history. Their opponents, Baltimore and Houston, ranked eighth and 11th in DVOA, respectively. The Broncos had only one game all year with a single-game DVOA below 0%. The Patriots had only two such games. The Ravens and Texans each had eight.

Each of these games features a DVOA gap of over 25 percentage points. It's hard to find another year where one conference's Divisional round had two matchups where the gap was even 15 percentage points of DVOA. I went back through our numbers to look for another year in which the Divisional round featured two teams with DVOA over 25% hosting two teams with DVOA below 10%. There's only one: 1997, when the NFC Divisional round featured Green Bay (29.7%) hosting Tampa Bay (8.0%) and San Francisco (27.5%) hosting Minnesota (-4.6%). Just like with this year's AFC, these teams had played each other in December, when Green Bay beat Tampa Bay 17-6 and San Francisco beat Minnesota 28-17. A few weeks later in the playoffs, Green Bay beat Tampa Bay 21-7 and San Francisco beat Minnesota 38-22.

For those who may be unfamiliar with the Football Outsiders stats, they are explained at the bottom of the page. Scroll down or click this link. Please remember that all stats represent regular season only, except for weighted DVOA and anything else specifically noted. Any game charting data that appears with a asterisk appears courtesy of the ESPN Stats & Information Group and is complete through the end of the season. Game charting data is still incomplete, but represents roughly 90 percent of the season.

For a scouting perspective, make sure to also check out Andy Benoit's AFC Divisional Round Film Room.

Parts of the Baltimore-Denver preview also appeared as part of an article on ESPN Insider.

Baltimore at Denver



Ravens on Offense
BAL OFF DEN DEF
DVOA 3.0% (13) -13.8% (5)
WEI DVOA 0.6% (14) -15.9% (2)
PASS 9.6% (15) -10.6% (5)
RUSH 7.5% (7) -18.1% (4)
RED ZONE -6.1% (19) 5.6% (19)


Broncos on Offense
DEN OFF BAL DEF
DVOA 22.1% (2) 2.2% (19)
WEI DVOA 23.0% (3) -0.3% (18)
PASS 49.6% (2) 3.4% (13)
RUSH -2.8% (15) 0.9% (26)
RED ZONE 24.1% (6) -10.4% (8)


Special Teams
BAL DEN
DVOA 9.0% (1) 0.7% (13)
BAL kickoff +12.4 (3) +0.9 (12)
DEN kickoff +13.3 (3) -1.6 (20)
BAL punts +7.4 (10) -4.6 (25)
DEN punts +2.5 (9) +13.4 (4)
FG/XP +9.4 (3) -4.7 (26)

All readers can click here for in-game discussion on our message boards. If you have FO Premium, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game.

It is often said that football is a game of matchups. But it may be more accurate to say that football is a game of strengths and weaknesses. Coaches examine all the matchups to figure out where they have an advantage, then try to attack the opponent's weaknesses through certain plays or tendencies. That presents a real problem for the Baltimore Ravens, because the Denver Broncos are an extremely well-rounded team without a lot of glaring weaknesses. For a playoff preview article I wrote this week for ESPN Insider, I pored through our spreadsheets looking for Denver weaknesses that the Ravens could exploit. They were hard to find, and when I did find a Denver weakness, the Ravens were often just as weak in the corresponding area.

WHEN THE RAVENS HAVE THE BALL

Let's start with some of the glaring "resistable force vs. movable object" matchups. On defense, the Broncos have had a lot of trouble stopping opponents in the red zone. Though they rank fifth in our defensive ratings overall, they are 19th in the red zone, including 27th against red-zone passing. However, the Ravens offense also ranks just 19th in the red zone, and is 28th on red-zone passes.

Our Adjusted Line Yards stats, which measure how well teams block or stop runs in different directions, show that the Broncos have trouble stopping runs to the left. However, the Ravens are better running up the middle or to the right than they are running left.

With so much attention paid to Von Miller and Elvis Dumervil, not to mention Champ Bailey having a bit of a comeback season, you may not have noticed that the Broncos were equally strong against the run. This game is not going to be easy pickings for Ray Rice. The Broncos were very good at stopping long runs, leading the league with just 0.35 Open Field Yards allowed per carry (yards after the first 10) and third with just 1.03 Second Level Yards allowed per carry (yards between 5-10).

The Broncos were very strong on first down, preventing opposing running backs from putting their teams in good second and third down situations. The Broncos allowed just 3.49 yards per carry to opposing running backs on first down, the best figure in the league. However, they weren't so strong at preventing running gains on third downs, ranking just 18th in DVOA. The Ravens' running game was just 14th on third downs (as opposed to seventh overall), but that still may be the better strategy on third down with just a few yards to go, because the Broncos' defense became nigh-impenetrable with a league-leading -66.9% pass defense DVOA on third downs. The Ravens were just 21st in pass offense DVOA on third downs, primarily because they couldn't connect in situations with just 1-6 yards to go. On third-and-long, however, the Ravens ranked fourth in offensive DVOA, so that's at least a relative strength even though the Broncos were second in defensive DVOA on third-and-long.

Last week's wild card preview discussed how Joe Flacco's numbers were significantly better passing to the middle or right side of the field, rather than to the left. Here's that table again:

Joe Flacco Passes by Direction, 2012 (includes DPI)
Direction Passes C% Yd/Play DVOA
left 183 49% 5.1 -22.1%
middle 116 69% 9.7 57.1%
right 241 63% 7.8 30.1%

On the surface, this looks like a good split for the Ravens; the Broncos were equal against shorter passes left and right, but better against deep left passes (-22.9% DVOA) than they were against deep right passes (12.9% DVOA). However, this looks like it was probably just random variation. The Broncos tend to put Bailey on a specific receiver rather than leave their cornerbacks on specific sides, so that left vs. right number doesn't reflect any particular defensive back. The Denver defensive backs were very good this year, although they certainly were helped by a pass rush that ended up leading the league in Adjusted Sack Rate. We wrote before the season that Tracy Porter would be a bad free-agent signing for the Broncos, because he had poor charting numbers in New Orleans. Well, he had poor charting numbers in Denver too -- 10.7 yards allowed per pass, 45 percent Success Rate -- but he got sick in mid-October, left the lineup, and never got his spot back because Chris Harris and Tony Carter played so well. Now Porter barely ever sees the field. Instead, you get these three defensive backs:

Denver Cornerbacks by FO Charting Stats (collected as of 1-11-13)
Player Targets Yd/Pass Rank Suc Rate Rank
Champ Bailey 73 6.6 32 60% 16
Tony Carter 58 7.1 44 66% 3
Chris Harris 60 5.8 13 60% 17

The ranks include 89 cornerbacks with at least 35 charted targets, so all three players are above average in both stats except for Carter, who is average (but not below) in yards allowed per pass. In the first Baltimore-Denver game, the Broncos generally had Champ Bailey on Torrey Smith, Chris Harris on Anquan Boldin, and Tony Carter on Tandon Doss or whoever else was in the slot, although this wasn't a hard and fast rule.

Flacco's best targets for this game are likely to be the tight ends, Ed Dickson and Dennis Pitta. The one glaring flaw in the Denver defense is an inability to cover tight ends. The Broncos ranked just 24th covering tight ends this year, with players like Jermaine Gresham and Greg Olsen burning Denver for season-high 100-yard games. In my article for ESPN, I blamed this on the aged veteran middle linebacker Keith Brooking, but a reader pointed out that the Broncos actually don't use Brooking to cover tight ends very much. I went and checked, and the reader was correct and I was mistaken. When Brooking has to cover someone, it's generally a running back, and we only have him with 14 pass targets anyway. Instead, the dismal performance against tight ends can be generally blamed on safety Mike Adams, who we have listed with 7.8 yards allowed per pass and a 42 percent Success Rate. Linebackers D.J. Williams and Danny Trevathan will also cover tight ends, although their charting numbers are better.

This was the one thing that went right for the Ravens in the first Broncos game. Dickson was injured, but Pitta caught seven of ten pass targets for 125 yards and two touchdowns. In fact, he should have caught all ten passes; the three incomplete passes were all drops. Pitta beat Adams on one of his long touchdowns, Williams on the other. However both those touchdowns came in the fourth quarter with the game essentially decided, which emphasizes the words "one thing" in the phrase "the one thing that went right for the Ravens."

WHEN THE BRONCOS HAVE THE BALL

Once again, here we have a place where the few Denver weaknesses generally correspond to Baltimore weaknesses. For example, the Broncos offense tends to start slowly, ranking just 12th in offensive DVOA in the first quarter. However, the Baltimore defense isn't particularly good in the first quarter either, ranking 22nd.

And as you might expect from a team that depends on Peyton Manning, the Denver offense is much better passing the ball than running the ball. They rank second in our ratings for passing, 15th for rushing. But when they really, really need to run for just a yard or two, the Broncos get it more often than not. The Broncos converted 67 percent of runs in "power" situations (i.e. third down, fourth down, or goal line with 1-2 to go), which ranks ninth in the league. Meanwhile, the Baltimore defense, which has been great against the run for over a decade, slipped badly in 2012 and ranked just 26th in our rankings. The Ravens were also awful in those short-yardage situations, allowing opponents to convert 76 percent of the time.

Even though the running game isn't a big part of what they do on offense, the Broncos are still killing opponents with play-action passing. The Broncos have gained 10.1 yards per pass with a play fake compared to just 6.4 yards per pass without a play fake.* That difference of 3.7 yards was the second-largest in the league behind Washington. And that's a huge problem for the Ravens, because play-action passes represent a huge weakness for their defense. The Ravens allowed 8.6 yards per pass on play action compared to 5.4 yards per pass without a play fake. That was the largest gap for any defense in the NFL.

In his Film Room preview of this game, Andy Benoit talked about Denver lining up using 3x1 sets in the first Baltimore game to go after cornerback Cary Williams. I definitely expect to see more of that in this game. As we noted in last week's wild card preview, former Bears special teams dynamo Corey Graham has done a pretty good job replacing Lardarius Webb as the starting cornerback on the offensive right side. The numbers we have so far give Graham a 62 percent Success Rate, 11th in the NFL among corners with at least 35 charted targets. He's allowed 5.8 yards per pass, which ranks 16th. Cary Williams, however, has 43 percent success rate (82nd) and 7.8 yards per pass (59th). The Ravens allowed 69.6% DVOA on passes marked in the play-by-play as "deep left," which was 30th in the NFL. The Broncos' offense had 65.4% DVOA on these passes, which was third in the NFL. I noted last week that Williams tended to give up a lot of short completions, but there are plenty of deep completions on his side as well. (We have a lot of these marked in our charting with the safeties in coverage; we'll have to go back and check that after the season to make sure that's accurate.)

Denver only tried two deep left passes in the first game between these teams, but one of them was the 51-yard touchdown pass where Eric Decker beat Williams, further explained in yesterday's Film Room. It's interesting to note that our numbers run counter to the conventional wisdom that Manning's deep ball improved as the year went on. His completion rate and DVOA both declined after Denver's Week 7 bye, although yards after catch improved:

Peyton Manning on Passes 16+ Yards in the Air in 2012
Weeks DVOA Passes Yd/Pass YAC C%
Weeks 1-6 94.2% 42 13.8 2.5 48.7%
Weeks 8-17 83.2% 72 13.5 5.3 46.4%
Peyton Manning on Passes 25+ Yards in the Air in 2012
Weeks DVOA Passes Yd/Pass YAC C%
Weeks 1-6 166.6% 16 20.9 3.4 60.0%
Weeks 8-17 62.0% 31 14.0 6.8 36.7%

Going back to those 3x1 sets that Andy wrote about, the Ravens did very well in our numbers against offenses lined up in what we deemed "trips" formations. Those formations are often designed to test quarters coverage, yet the Ravens had a league-low 4.2 yards allowed per pass play on 52 charted plays. However, our definition of "trips" only includes formations where three receivers are standing on one side. The Decker play, as you can see in the Film Room graphics, had three receivers on one side but one of them is a tight end in a conventional tight end crouch. Our charting would mark that as "slot right" rather than "trips right," and the Ravens allowed an above-average 6.9 yards per pass on pass plays marked as "slot left" or "slot right."

SPECIAL TEAMS

This is the place where Baltimore has a clear advantage, although it isn't like the Broncos are poor. The Ravens just happen to be very good at every aspect of special teams. They led FO's special teams ratings this season while Denver was 13th. The Broncos were 25th in punt return value, but the negative value is almost all veteran Jim Leonhard; if Trindon Holliday's ankle is healthy enough for him to go, punt returns should be fine. And the Broncos ranked just 26th in FG/XP value, as Matt Prater was just 8-of-13 on field-goal attempts over 40 yards despite kicking half the time in high altitude. Of course, in order to force Prater into a long field goal, the Ravens have to stop Peyton Manning first.

OUTLOOK

You cannot deny Brady-Manning XIV, for it is your destiny.

Houston at New England


Texans on Offense
HOU OFF NE DEF
DVOA 0.1% (16) 1.3% (15)
WEI DVOA -4.6% (17) -0.9% (16)
PASS 11.0% (14) 13.9% (23)
RUSH -3.6% (16) -16.0% (6)
RED ZONE -0.6% (16) -6.8% (9)
Patriots on Offense
NE OFF HOU DEF
DVOA 30.8% (1) -14.2% (3)
WEI DVOA 28.6% (2) -12.3% (5)
PASS 53.8% (1) -12.4% (4)
RUSH 11.9% (4) -16.8% (5)
RED ZONE 34.5% (3) -24.9% (3)
Special Teams
HOU NE
DVOA -7.7% (32) 5.5% (4)
HOU kickoff -25.9 (32) +2.2 (11)
NE kickoff -6.9 (28) +15.0 (1)
HOU punts -1.2 (16) +5.9 (5)
NE punts +1.4 (13) +6.2 (11)
FG/XP -5.8 (29) -1.8 (18)

All readers can click here for in-game discussion on our message boards. If you have FO Premium, you can click here to see all the matchup of DVOA splits for this game.

If you look just at the ranks in those tables above, you might think that these teams are actually quite closely matched except for on special teams. But that's not the case, because the extremes in offense are always stronger than the extremes in defense. As you can see, the difference between an average offense and the best offense in the league is more than twice as big as the difference between an average defense and the third-best defense in the league. Add that to the special teams difference and home-field advantage, and you end up with New England as a heavy favorite.

WHEN THE TEXANS HAVE THE BALL

You know how this works by now: The Texans offense is based around the running game and the play-action pass. The play-action pass is still a good weapon against the Patriots, who allowed 8.3 yards per play on play-action passes.* But the running game is a bit of a problem. First of all, the Houston running game actually wasn't that great this year -- just 16th in DVOA. And the Patriots had a very strong run defense, sixth in DVOA. The Patriots were particularly strong in short-yardage situations, allowing conversions just 50 percent of the time (second in the NFL).

If Arian Foster is going to get some traction against the Pats, it will likely be with runs to the outside. The Patriots ranked 30th in Adjusted Line Yards against runs around right end, and 31st against runs around left end. Foster had just 46 yards on 15 carries in the first Houston-New England game, but his two longest carries, for 15 and 9 yards, came on runs that went wide around each end.

However, if the Texans can't get the running game going, that will leave them in third-and-long situations, and as we discussed in last week's wild card preview, the Texans have been horrible in third-and-long situations all year long. Houston is 24th in offensive DVOA on third downs, and 29th when it is third-and-long (7+ yards to go).

Just like in 2011, the Patriots' secondary underwent a lot of changes during the season, but things definitely improved around midseason. First, the Patriots moved seventh-round rookie steal Alfonzo Dennard into the starting lineup in Week 7. For the season, Dennard has a 57 percent Success Rate (32nd out of 89 cornerbacks) and 7.4 yards allowed per pass (52nd). Then the Patriots acquired Aqib Talib in a trade with Tampa Bay and installed him as the left cornerback (offensive right), with Dennard becoming the permanent starter at right cornerback. Talib has surprisingly poor charting numbers since he joined the Patriots at midseason (9.3 yards allowed per pass and just a 38 percent Success Rate based on our current data), but the five games with Talib in the starting lineup were undoubtedly the best five-game stretch for the Patriots' defense all season. Talib's arrival allowed Devin McCourty to stay at safety, where he thrived, reading quarterbacks and making big hits in the open field instead of getting lost in man coverage on wide receivers. These moves also put Kyle Arrington in the slot, where he makes a better fit. Our charting numbers give Arrington 13.2 yards allowed per pass with 30 percent Success Rate through Week 10, which would be the worst numbers for any corner in the league over the course of a full season. In Weeks 11-15, Arrington allowed 4.4 yards per pass with 73 percent Success Rate.

You can see the team's improvement with each move, and then a decline when Dennard and Talib get hurt:

  • Weeks 1-6 (McCourty and Arrington starting): 23.9% DVOA vs. pass
  • Weeks 7-10 (Dennard and Arrington starting, McCourty moves to safety): 8.6% DVOA vs. pass
  • Weeks 11-15 (Dennard and Talib starting, Arrington moves to nickel): 4.5% DVOA vs. pass
  • Weeks 16-17 (Dennard and Talib injured, Arrington and McCourty start at cornerback again): 13.9% DVOA vs. pass

Andre Johnson dominates the Texans' passing game, and both Talib and Dennard will draw assignments against him. Early on in the Week 14 game, it looked like the Patriots might be specifically using Talib to cover Andre Johnson, but eventually they settled into their usual mode of leaving the cornerbacks on specific sides.

In the second half of the season, the Patriots' pass defense improved against all five of the types of receivers that we track. Nonetheless, they've had a weakness against tight ends all season long. Surprisingly, the Texans only threw three passes to Owen Daniels all game in Week 14. (He caught two, for 24 yards). He could be a bigger problem for the Patriots this week; so could the two-tight end sets that also feature Garrett Graham, who missed the first Patriots game with an injury.

One of the other changes the Patriots made around midseason was an increase in blitzes. In their first eight games, the Patriots blitzed on 16.6 percent of pass plays, and sent a big blitz (six or more) only 2.5 percent of the time*. Since Week 10, the Patriots have blitzed on 32.0 percent of pass plays, sending a big blitz 7.9 percent of the time. Matt Schaub was good against a five-man blitz this year, but struggled against the big blitz. Schaub gained 6.5 yards per play against four pass rushers, 7.7 yards per play against five, and 4.9 yards per play against six or more. However, opponents didn't send a big blitz against Houston very much -- in fact, just 4.3 percent of the time, the lowest figure in the league. Meanwhile, the Patriots' defense got stronger by sending more pass pressure: 7.1 yards per play with four pass rushers, 6.5 with five pass rushers, and 5.9 with six or more.*

You also have to ask the question whether the Patriots even need to worry about deep passes at all. A few times on Boston sports radio this week, I've heard the theory that Schaub might be hiding an injury. He was never exactly Matthew Stafford or Joe Flacco, but his ability to throw deep has completely deserted him in the last two months. Take a look at Schaub's performance on passes of 20 or more yards:

Matt Schaub on Passes 20+ Yards in the Air in 2012
Weeks DVOA Passes Yd/Pass YAC C%
Weeks 1-9 80.9% 28 14.6 6.2 36.0%
Weeks 10-17 -31.2% 33 10.7 5.0 29.0%

Why did I cut the stats here at 20 yards, rather than our more common markers of "deep" (16+ yards) or "bomb" (25+ yards)? Because against Cincinnati last week, Schaub didn't even attempt a single pass that went 20 or more yards through the air.

WHEN THE PATRIOTS HAVE THE BALL

And now, here's the real problem. In the first game between these teams, the Patriots scored touchdowns on their first three drives. They went three-and-out on their next three drives, but by that point the Texans were already scrambling to play from behind, and then the Patriots had another three touchdowns in the second half. By the way, the Patriots played that game without the best tight end in the NFL, Rob Gronkowski. Sunday will mark only the sixth game all season where the Patriots have both Aaron Hernandez and Rob Gronkowski on the field.

The Texans have the best defensive player in the game. Yet when these teams played in Week 14, J.J. Watt didn't have anywhere near the impact that you would expect, unless you are asking about how much pain Tom Brady felt on Tuesday morning. I spent the first game watching Watt on nearly every play. Watt moved all around the formation and brought non-stop pressure. He got to Brady again and again. The problem is that by the time he had gotten to Brady, Brady had usually gotten rid of the ball. The Patriots generally didn't use a double team on him, trusting Brady to dissect the defense and deliver the pass before Watt could knock him to the turf.

Last week, we noted that it was the Texans' coverage, not their pass rush, that faltered in the second half of 2012. The Texans have been having huge problems when they send just four pass rushers*:

Texans by Number of Pass Rushers in 2012*
Weeks 1-7 Weeks 9-17
Plays Yd/Play Plays Yd/Play
4 pass rushers 125 4.3 158 6.7
5 pass rushers 74 5.3 104 6.0
6 pass rushers 48 6.0 55 5.1

Of course, if you big-blitz Tom Brady, he'll kill you. Brady averaged 7.8 yards per pass against six or more pass rushers. The Texans big-blitzed Brady six times in the first game. They got a sack on third down, but they also got three completions all for first downs, a total of 52 yards, and a fourth pass that would have been complete but Brandon Lloyd dropped it. The best recipe may be to go with five rushers, which is something the Texans are used to doing; they were near the top of the league using five pass rushers on 30 percent of pass plays.*

If the Texans are going to stop the Patriots' offense this week, they're going to need a better performance from veteran cornerback Johnathan Joseph. As I noted last week, Joseph struggled this year after a Week 3 injury. He didn't move with his usual smoothness, and he allowed 8.2 yards per pass after Week 3. The Texans ranked fourth in DVOA against No. 1 receivers but 28th against No. 2 receivers; however, this didn't really correlate to the specific performances of Joseph and Kareem Jackson because Joseph missed some games with the injury and, when he was healthy, the Texans would generally use him to cover whichever receiver was more of a speed threat, no matter if he was the other team's better overall receiver or not. In the first game, the Texans used Joseph exclusively on Lloyd with Jackson covering Wes Welker. Lloyd caught 7-of-9 passes for 89 yards and a touchdown, his third-highest yardage total of the year. Welker, with the much-improved Jackson covering him, caught just 3-of-9 passes, although he did gain 52 yards on those three catches.

The Texans ranked fourth in DVOA against tight ends, but as we know, Hernandez's role is much more akin to the third receiver than it is to a tight end, and as we noted last week, the Texans are seriously stretched for nickelbacks right now. Brice McCain is out for the season. Alan Ball was next man up, and he struggled. Now he's dealing with a foot injury, and that puts Brandon Harris and Roc Carmichael on the field, and they've really struggled. As a result, FO metrics show that the Texans went from the league's third-best defense against slot receivers in Weeks 1-7 to the third-worst in Weeks 9-17.

Another reason why the Patriots are more likely to use Hernandez split out rather than keep things tight with two or three players in standard tight end positions: the Texans actually were the best defense in the league against personnel packages with two tight ends, allowing just 4.2 yards per play. However, they allowed a middle-of-the-pack 6.1 yards per play against personnel packages with three or more receivers.*

Houston's run defense has actually improved despite losing inside linebacker Brian Cushing in mid-October. On the surface, this doesn't seem to be the case, because the Texans have gone from allowing 4.0 yards per carry before the bye to 4.3 yards per carry since. However, when you look at the circumstances and distance to go of these runs, it (mostly) turns out the Texans have been more successful despite allowing more yardage: 13th in run defense DVOA before the bye, and fourth since. But the Patriots always have an efficient running game, in part because defenses are so keyed to play the pass, and they were excellent at killing clock back in Week 14. Patriots running backs averaged 4.8 yards per carry after New England had taken a 21-0 lead. The Patriots will also be able to run for third downs when they need to. The Texans' defense ranks 12th on third downs, including 25th against the run. The Patriots' offense is first in the league on third downs, both rushing and passing.

SPECIAL TEAMS

Here's another colossal advantage for the Patriots, as they finished fourth in FO's special teams ratings while Houston was dead last. The biggest difference comes on kickoffs; the Patriots were the league's top team on kickoff value and were good on kick returns, while the Texans were terrible in both areas. In the Patriots' Week 14 win, Stephen Gostkowski's seven kickoffs resulted in five touchbacks, a kickoff returned to the 25 by Keshawn Martin, and one only returned to the 12.

OUTLOOK

You cannot deny Brady-Manning XIV, for it is your destiny.


STATS EXPLAINED

DVOA (Defense-adjusted Value Over Average) breaks down each play of the season and compares it to the NFL average based on situation and opponent. You'll find it explained further here. Since DVOA measures ability to score, a negative DVOA indicates a better defense and worse offense, and a positive DVOA indicates a better offense and worse defense.

SPECIAL TEAMS numbers are different; they represent value in points of extra field position gained compared to NFL average. Field goal rating represents points scored compared to average kicker at same distances. All special teams numbers are adjusted by weather and altitude; the total is then translated into DVOA so it can be compared to offense and defense. Those numbers are explained here.

Each team is listed with DVOA for offense and defense, total along with rush and pass, and rank among the 32 teams in parentheses. (If the DVOA values are difficult to understand, it is easy to just look at the ranks.) We also list red zone DVOA and WEIGHTED DVOA (WEI DVOA), which is based on a formula which drops the value of games early in the season to get a better idea of how teams are playing now (explained here).

Each team also gets a chart showing their performance this year, game-by-game, according to total DVOA. In addition to a line showing each game, another line shows the team's trend for the season, using a rolling average of the last five games. Note that even though the chart appears in the section for when each team has the ball, it represents total performance, not just offense.

Posted by: Aaron Schatz on 11 Jan 2013

28 comments, Last at 13 Jan 2013, 4:51pm by LionInAZ

Comments

1
by JohnD (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 3:54pm

I look forward to the first Brady/Manning Jags/Broncos game in 3-4 years.

2
by JIPanick :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 4:09pm

Naw, I figure Brady's Montana/Favre/Manning style farewell tour will go to a team that is a QB away from making a real run, not a perennial bottom feeder. It'd also be cool if it was an NFC team... can you imagine a Manning/Brady Super Bowl?

Maybe that's how Minnesota will finally get a ring; they seem to be in a perpetual state of "if we only had a QB".

7
by EdLo (not verified) :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 4:56pm

Already had two of 'em.

15
by Nick Wells (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 12:20pm

I seem to recall that Minny's last savior QB choked away their chance to get to the Super Bowl, then after coming back for $20 million, led the team to a 6-10 record for an encore.

3
by dmstorm22 :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 4:17pm

I guess the DVOA differences weren't nearly as large, but what about 2007 in the AFC. IIRC, everyone thought the Colts would beat SD (having come one chip-shot field goal away from beating them in SD far more injured despite 6 INTs by Manning), and the one that was thought to be a more precarious situation was New England against Jacksonville.

Looking back, those were much closer games in DVOA, but that was seemingly a 'let's just fast-forward to Super Bowl 41.75' weekend.

4
by doktarr :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 4:20pm

If we're looking for a year to compare this to, the January 1995 game between the 49ers and the Cowboys (which produced the Sports Illustrated headline "The Real Super Bowl") seemed at least this predictable.

5
by PerlStalker :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 4:30pm

In the first game back after his illness, Tracy Porter sustained a concussion and has been inactive ever since. The Broncos are probably better for it.

6
by theslothook :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 4:49pm

If there's one offense since I've watched football that has puzzled me the most, it was 2010 Ne's offense. Not that it wasn't great, but that of all the great years of offense for Ne, that one and 07 are both within the top 5 all time best offenses. I can understand 07, but what was it about 2010 that made them so much better? If you think about it, moss was gone, they were using branch and brandon tate at receiver and gronk and hernandez were both rookies(good, but not frightening like they are now). Brady was the same then as he is now so what was it about that year and that team that made them so much better than the other years?

8
by dmstorm22 :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 5:12pm

They never turned the ball over. They ran more and passed more effectively (higher y/a and y/r). I believe they had a tougher schedule. It is harder to say what they did better, but what they did was they had less failed drives. They had a higher percentage of TDs/drive, fewer turnovers per drive. They were just more 'efficient'.

9
by theslothook :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 5:20pm

No i get that. They were essentially doing all the things dvoa loves. Lots of third down conversions, no turnovers, plenty of scoring in the red zone. probably took dink and dunk to new heights like never seen before. But really, from a personnel standpoint, what explains it? Their skill positions were welker, branch, and tate(hardly a doomsday collection of receivers) and their tight ends again were both rookies. Was it really just fluky luck that they never turned the ball over and converted so many third downs and cashed in the red zone every time?

11
by dmstorm22 :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 6:32pm

To me, that was the best year for their o-line, mostly healthy all year long (after Mankins holdout ended they went on their run), and Brady's best year. He was just brilliant that season, even in a way he wasn't in 2007.

19
by Reinhard (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 4:08pm

Gronkowski was a beast - even as a rookie he was "probably" the best TE in the game. Now he DEFINITELY is.

10
by Bjorn Nittmo :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 6:22pm

I'm surprised that the 2007 NFC divisional round matchups didn't provide a big enough DVOA spread in each game. Without looking at how DVOA ranked them, Cowboys and Packers were clearly the class of the NFC by a good margin all season. Cowboys had to be huge DVOA-favorites over the Giants, whom they'd beaten handily twice during the season, even if the Cowboys weighted DVOA showed they were a little more vulnerable (they didn't play well in their last 3-4 games, as I recall). Packers-Seahwaks was a 2-3 matchup, but I can't imagine DVOA held Seattle in much regard with them continuing their decline from 2005 and having won a truly lousy division.

13
by Vincent Verhei :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 6:48pm

Aaron's criteria was one team over 25% in DVOA, one team under 10%.

2007 DAL: 22.9%
2007 NYG: 1.9%

Almost, but not quite.

2007 GB: 19.8%
2007 SEA: 14.7%

Not close. Funny thing about that Seattle team. They only had three games with negative DVOA in the regular season, but those three games were really, really bad:

* 23-20 loss in Week 2 to an Arizona team that finished 8-8 (-33.2%)
* 21-0 loss to Pittsburgh in Week 5 (-49.1%)
* 44-41 loss to Atlanta (the Michael Vick-Bobby Petrino nightmare Falcons season) in Week 17 (-42.9%)

12
by rageon :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 6:42pm

if Trindon Holliday's ankle is healthy enough for him to go, punt returns should be fine.

Until he fumbles, that is.

14
by Jerry :: Fri, 01/11/2013 - 9:25pm

You cannot deny Brady-Manning XIV, for it is your destiny.

I may not be able to deny it, but I'm gonna do my best to ignore it.

17
by Malene, copenhagen (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 3:13pm

because... you dislike playoff football games in general, or just the ones with good quarterbacking?

No matter what you think of the hype, it seems a little silly for someone who posts on a football forum to ignore any game featuring the two best QBs of the last 20 years (at least).

18
by Jerry :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 4:03pm

When the hype starts before the game is set, and when it will be so overwhelming that you'll be unable to avoid it in Denmark, I'll pass. If there are two upsets this weekend, nobody will refer to Flacco-Schaub I.

20
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 4:17pm

I really hope that Von Miller can defeat Ray Lewis!

16
by Hummingbird Cyborg :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 2:53pm

The idea that Mike Adams was the biggest reason that Denver was poor covering tight ends matches what I felt I was often seeing from Adams. I hadn't really recalled many plays in which Brooking was clearly beat in coverage, but I felt like Mike Adams was often in coverage when the defense gave up a big play.

I hope that the Broncos add depth at safety this offseason. Many Broncos fans are counting on Quincy Carter's return from injured reserve will provide the team with an upgrade. Either way, I tend to feel that in today's NFL, it's hard to get too much depth in the secondary.

21
by CBPodge :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 4:19pm

What's the straight up win loss record for playoff games that are as mismatched by DVOA as these two?

22
by Moridin :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 9:56pm

Well, looks like the Denver D can deny Brady-Manning, though good lord Peyton, why did you throw that?!

23
by PatsFan :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:25pm

He Favred it so he could break Favre's playoff loss record?

But seriously, I don't get that pass at all. Though I'd blame Fox and his Martyball tactics a lot more.

24
by PC (not verified) :: Sat, 01/12/2013 - 11:31pm

Can't stand the Ravens, but pleased they won, because the refs were trying to steal the game away from the Ravens the whole time. When Manning pouts, the refs give in. Manning’s TD that tied the game at 14 was no TD: Stokley did not have control of that ball – even if his toe touched inbounds – when he stop bobbling the ball his knee was already out of bounds. No ref call on Denver’s offensive pass interference first half. No ref call on Denver’s defensive pass interference first half. Spotting of the ball on those questionable 4th down/1st downs. And the list goes on…

25
by PatsFan :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 12:45am

What's funny about this is that if you look at Broncos' discussion forums, there's huge amounts of flaming about how horribly reffed it was and how the refs were blatantly favoring the Ravens...

27
by Sid :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 2:54pm

several pretty bad calls in that game, but it would be tough to argue that the incompetent officiating clearly favored one team or the other

the fans of each team just don't want to acknowledge the bad calls that helped them.

26
by Pete Mack (not verified) :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 9:49am

Any given Saturday...
I pit money on the Ravens to cover the spread; expected Manning to continue his postseason woes. Did not expect such an epic fail at the end of the game!

28
by LionInAZ :: Sun, 01/13/2013 - 4:51pm

Good call by Aaron on the Ravens using their TEs to advantage. It was weird that the ST game went topsy-turvy, and it will be interesting to see the breakdown of how Torrey Smith managed to beat Bailey. Right on target about Cary Williams too.