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Scramble's 2015 Prop Bet Extravaganza!

Tom and Mike have climbed to the top of the Hill of Nonsense and unleash another wave of insane wagering on the world.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

75 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 5:41pm by jebmak

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Ravens Wrap-Up

Ben Muth puts Baltimore's 2014 season to bed, and says their offensive line should be a solid building block for 2015.

11 comments, Last Comment at 18 Jan 2015, 1:35am by tg

Jan 16, 2015 09:13am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Conference Championship Quick Reads

What can we learn from Seattle's losses? Is there a blueprint for the Patriots to beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl?

214 comments, Last Comment at 22 Jan 2015, 3:25pm by Karl Cuba

Jan 20, 2015 10:46am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: New England Linebackers

If the Patriots are going to win Super Bowl XLIX, they're going to need great performances from Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower to shut down the Seattle running game.

6 comments, Last Comment at 24 Jan 2015, 11:59pm by ansum

Jan 22, 2015 11:59am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships

The NFC Championship was decided on the final play. The AFC Championship was decided sometime in the third quarter. Guess which generated more discussion?

331 comments, Last Comment at 22 Jan 2015, 6:44pm by intel_chris

Jan 19, 2015 02:47am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

Final 2014 FEI Ratings

Yes, Oregon is still ranked ahead of Ohio State in the FEI ratings. Why do you ask?

6 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 11:18am by Kyndynos

Jan 14, 2015 01:16pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: January 23, 2015

Topics this week include Seattle's win in the NFC Championship Game, deflated footballs ... and very little else.

9 comments, Last Comment at 23 Jan 2015, 8:18pm by Vincent Verhei

Jan 23, 2015 10:14am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble's 2015 Prop Bet Extravaganza!

Tom and Mike have climbed to the top of the Hill of Nonsense and unleash another wave of insane wagering on the world.

12 comments, Last Comment at 1:40am by Raiderjoe

Jan 23, 2015 06:08pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Senior Bowl RB Roundtable

Matt Waldman talks shop with Minnesota's David Cobb, Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah, and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford.

3 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 6:49pm by Matt Waldman

Jan 21, 2015 04:33pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Win Super BowlWEI DVOA
1NE50.5%39.8% DVOA
2SEA49.5%38.8% DVOA
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2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA31.3% 1SEA32.8%
2DEN29.5% 2NE31.4%
3GB23.3% 3GB24.0%
4NE22.4% 4DEN23.9%
5BAL22.2% 5BAL23.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1GB24.6% 1GB26.7%
2PIT22.5% 2PIT21.9%
3DEN19.9% 3DAL19.4%
4DAL17.0% 4NE19.4%
5SEA16.7% 5SEA15.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-16.3% 1SEA-19.8%
2BUF-15.6% 2BUF-19.1%
3DET-13.8% 3DEN-13.4%
4DEN-13.3% 4HOU-12.7%
5SF-10.0% 5SF-11.3%
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2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI8.3% 1BAL10.4%
2BAL8.0% 2KC9.4%
3KC6.7% 3PHI8.2%
4BUF6.2% 4STL6.7%
5NE5.5% 5CIN6.0%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,598 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,563 2T.RomoDAL27.9%
3P.ManningDEN1,433 3D.AndersonCAR27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,212 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT27.5%
5T.RomoDAL1,198 5P.ManningDEN24.5%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL381 1M.LynchSEA23.3% 1L.BellPIT313
2M.LynchSEA362 2J.CharlesKC20.0% 2A.BradshawIND152
3J.CharlesKC250 3C.J.AndersonDEN17.9% 3M.ForteCHI128
4L.MillerMIA247 4L.MillerMIA17.8% 4E.LacyGB110
5L.BellPIT206 5D.MurrayDAL14.7% 5P.ThomasNO110
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT553 1R.CobbGB35.5%
2J.NelsonGB481 2K.StillsNO32.4%
3E.SandersDEN480 3T.WilliamsDAL30.5%
4R.CobbGB478 4E.SandersDEN29.5%
5D.BryantDAL435 5D.JacksonWAS27.9%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE234 1T.WrightNE30.4%
2A.GatesSD202 2D.AllenIND25.2%
3G.OlsenCAR175 3J.ThomasDEN24.5%
4T.KelceKC171 4N.PaulWAS24.0%
5J.WittenDAL144 5A.GatesSD23.7%
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Most Recent Articles

23 Jan 2015, 06:08pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble's 2015 Prop Bet Extravaganza!

Tom and Mike have climbed to the top of the Hill of Nonsense and unleash another wave of insane wagering on the world.

» More...

12 comments, Last at 1:40am by Raiderjoe

23 Jan 2015, 10:14am by Rory Hickey

The Week In Quotes: January 23, 2015

Topics this week include Seattle's win in the NFC Championship Game, deflated footballs ... and very little else.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 23 Jan 2015, 8:18pm by Vincent Verhei

23 Jan 2015, 09:12am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Russell Wilson Following in Tom Brady's Footsteps

"He just wins" is the most annoying thing someone can say about a quarterback, but the stats for Russell Wilson are too good to label him that way. Despite significant differences in how they play the position, Wilson's three-year start has been very similar to Tom Brady's first three years as a starter (2001-03). They both have an average rank of 10.3 in DVOA and DYAR (passing only) in those seasons. Fittingly, the Seahawks are looking to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 4:17am by heywood

22 Jan 2015, 03:31pm by Scott Kacsmar

Quarterback Postseason Drive Stats

This year's update to playoff drive stats looks at Andrew Luck's January misfortunes and Russell Wilson's field-position advantage.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 23 Jan 2015, 11:15am by Biebs

22 Jan 2015, 11:59am by Cian Fahey

Film Room: New England Linebackers

If the Patriots are going to win Super Bowl XLIX, they're going to need great performances from Jamie Collins and Dont'a Hightower to shut down the Seattle running game.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 24 Jan 2015, 11:59pm by ansum

21 Jan 2015, 04:33pm by Matt Waldman

Futures: Senior Bowl RB Roundtable

Matt Waldman talks shop with Minnesota's David Cobb, Nebraska's Ameer Abdullah, and Michigan State's Jeremy Langford.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 21 Jan 2015, 6:49pm by Matt Waldman

21 Jan 2015, 12:41pm by Mike Tanier

Best of Football Outsiders: The Taint

Thoughts on the taint, as appropriate now as they were three years ago.

» More...

621 comments, Last at 1:54am by mehllageman56

20 Jan 2015, 10:46am by Vincent Verhei

Conference Championship Quick Reads

What can we learn from Seattle's losses? Is there a blueprint for the Patriots to beat the Seahawks in the Super Bowl?

» More...

214 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2015, 3:25pm by Karl Cuba

19 Jan 2015, 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

» More...

75 comments, Last at 21 Jan 2015, 5:41pm by jebmak

19 Jan 2015, 01:50pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: NFC Championship

Seattle pulled off the largest fourth-quarter comeback in championship game history. Where did Green Bay go wrong, and how should we analyze Russell Wilson's performance?

» More...

54 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2015, 7:05pm by Grendel13G

19 Jan 2015, 02:47am by Andrew Potter

Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships

The NFC Championship was decided on the final play. The AFC Championship was decided sometime in the third quarter. Guess which generated more discussion?

» More...

331 comments, Last at 22 Jan 2015, 6:44pm by intel_chris

16 Jan 2015, 11:20am by Aaron Schatz

2015 NFC Championship Preview

Seattle brings out the NFL's best running game against a team that has trouble stopping the run. Can a hobbled Aaron Rodgers somehow have enough success against the stellar Seattle defense to overcome all the yards Russell Wilson and Marshawn Lynch will gain?

» More...

122 comments, Last at 19 Jan 2015, 2:01pm by Sid

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