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Super Bowl XLIX Preview

Possibly the closest Super Bowl matchup in history also poses the question: how much does it mean when certain aspects of an NFL team improve dramatically in the second half of the season?

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

76 comments, Last Comment at 25 Jan 2015, 9:43am by mitch

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Ravens Wrap-Up

Ben Muth puts Baltimore's 2014 season to bed, and says their offensive line should be a solid building block for 2015.

11 comments, Last Comment at 18 Jan 2015, 1:35am by tg

Jan 16, 2015 09:13am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

QR Bonus: Keys To Beating New England

A look back at New England's worst games this year shows which matchups will be critical in Super Bowl XLIX.

41 comments, Last Comment at 8:42pm by PaddyPat

Jan 27, 2015 12:17pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Russell Wilson's Mobility

How big is mobility in Russell Wilson's game? We looked at every play of the scramblin' man's career to understand how much of Seattle's offense is by design versus improv.

16 comments, Last Comment at 4:03pm by Karl Cuba

Jan 28, 2015 02:08pm by Scott Kacsmar || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Conference Championships

The NFC Championship was decided on the final play. The AFC Championship was decided sometime in the third quarter. Guess which generated more discussion?

331 comments, Last Comment at 22 Jan 2015, 6:44pm by intel_chris

Jan 19, 2015 02:47am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

Final 2014 FEI Ratings

Yes, Oregon is still ranked ahead of Ohio State in the FEI ratings. Why do you ask?

6 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 11:18am by Kyndynos

Jan 14, 2015 01:16pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: January 23, 2015

Topics this week include Seattle's win in the NFC Championship Game, deflated footballs ... and very little else.

10 comments, Last Comment at 25 Jan 2015, 6:21pm by Theo

Jan 23, 2015 10:14am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble's 2014 All-Keep Choppin' Wood Team

Amidst pre-Super Bowl hype, Mike and Tom look from the top of the game to the bottom of the barrel to find the terrible players and complete boneheads who worked so hard to help their teams lose in 2014.

23 comments, Last Comment at 7:58pm by Will Allen

Jan 28, 2015 03:11pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: CSU-Pueblo QB Chris Bonner

Much of the major media has written off this year's quarterbacks beyond the top three prospects, but Bonner deserves due diligence.

2 comments, Last Comment at 28 Jan 2015, 2:17pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

Jan 28, 2015 12:16pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Win Super BowlWEI DVOA
1NE50.5%39.8% DVOA
2SEA49.5%38.8% DVOA
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2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA31.3% 1SEA32.8%
2DEN29.5% 2NE31.4%
3GB23.3% 3GB24.0%
4NE22.4% 4DEN23.9%
5BAL22.2% 5BAL23.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1GB24.6% 1GB26.7%
2PIT22.5% 2PIT21.9%
3DEN19.9% 3DAL19.4%
4DAL17.0% 4NE19.4%
5SEA16.7% 5SEA15.0%
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2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-16.3% 1SEA-19.8%
2BUF-15.6% 2BUF-19.1%
3DET-13.8% 3DEN-13.4%
4DEN-13.3% 4HOU-12.7%
5SF-10.0% 5SF-11.3%
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2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI8.3% 1BAL10.4%
2BAL8.0% 2KC9.4%
3KC6.7% 3PHI8.2%
4BUF6.2% 4STL6.7%
5NE5.5% 5CIN6.0%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,598 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,563 2T.RomoDAL27.9%
3P.ManningDEN1,433 3D.AndersonCAR27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,212 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT27.5%
5T.RomoDAL1,198 5P.ManningDEN24.5%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL381 1M.LynchSEA23.3% 1L.BellPIT313
2M.LynchSEA362 2J.CharlesKC20.0% 2A.BradshawIND152
3J.CharlesKC250 3C.J.AndersonDEN17.9% 3M.ForteCHI128
4L.MillerMIA247 4L.MillerMIA17.8% 4E.LacyGB110
5L.BellPIT206 5D.MurrayDAL14.7% 5P.ThomasNO110
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT553 1R.CobbGB35.5%
2J.NelsonGB481 2K.StillsNO32.4%
3E.SandersDEN480 3T.WilliamsDAL30.5%
4R.CobbGB478 4E.SandersDEN29.5%
5D.BryantDAL435 5D.JacksonWAS27.9%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE234 1T.WrightNE30.4%
2A.GatesSD202 2D.AllenIND25.2%
3G.OlsenCAR175 3J.ThomasDEN24.5%
4T.KelceKC171 4N.PaulWAS24.0%
5J.WittenDAL144 5A.GatesSD23.7%
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Most Recent Articles

29 Jan 2015, 03:27pm by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XLIX Preview

Possibly the closest Super Bowl matchup in history also poses the question: how much does it mean when certain aspects of an NFL team improve dramatically in the second half of the season?

» More...

37 comments, Last at 8:53pm by Will Allen

28 Jan 2015, 03:11pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble's 2014 All-Keep Choppin' Wood Team

Amidst pre-Super Bowl hype, Mike and Tom look from the top of the game to the bottom of the barrel to find the terrible players and complete boneheads who worked so hard to help their teams lose in 2014.

» More...

23 comments, Last at 7:58pm by Will Allen

28 Jan 2015, 02:08pm by Scott Kacsmar

Film Room: Russell Wilson's Mobility

How big is mobility in Russell Wilson's game? We looked at every play of the scramblin' man's career to understand how much of Seattle's offense is by design versus improv.

» More...

16 comments, Last at 4:03pm by Karl Cuba

28 Jan 2015, 12:16pm by Matt Waldman

Futures: CSU-Pueblo QB Chris Bonner

Much of the major media has written off this year's quarterbacks beyond the top three prospects, but Bonner deserves due diligence.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 28 Jan 2015, 2:17pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

27 Jan 2015, 05:40pm by Aaron Schatz

Super Bowl XLIX's Insane Penalty Stats

Seattle and New England were among the most penalized teams in the NFL this year, and among the teams with the fewest penalties on their opponents. But the gap between Seattle and the rest of the NFL on that latter number is a bit nuts.

» More...

26 comments, Last at 4:32pm by johonny

27 Jan 2015, 02:40pm by J.J. Cooper

Under Pressure: Super Bowl Lines

How did New England find the right combination of offensive linemen this season, and where are Seattle's biggest weaknesses in pass protection?

» More...

24 comments, Last at 1:15pm by leona

27 Jan 2015, 12:17pm by Vincent Verhei

QR Bonus: Keys To Beating New England

A look back at New England's worst games this year shows which matchups will be critical in Super Bowl XLIX.

» More...

41 comments, Last at 8:42pm by PaddyPat

26 Jan 2015, 07:07pm by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Rob Gronkowski

The Seahawks' ability to cover New England's once-in-a-generation tight end will go a long way in determining who wins Super Bowl XLIX.

» More...

15 comments, Last at 28 Jan 2015, 6:55pm by EricL

23 Jan 2015, 06:08pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble's 2015 Prop Bet Extravaganza!

Tom and Mike have climbed to the top of the Hill of Nonsense and unleash another wave of insane wagering on the world.

» More...

35 comments, Last at 27 Jan 2015, 2:22pm by Jeremy Billones

23 Jan 2015, 10:14am by Rory Hickey

The Week In Quotes: January 23, 2015

Topics this week include Seattle's win in the NFC Championship Game, deflated footballs ... and very little else.

» More...

10 comments, Last at 25 Jan 2015, 6:21pm by Theo

23 Jan 2015, 09:12am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Russell Wilson Following in Tom Brady's Footsteps

"He just wins" is the most annoying thing someone can say about a quarterback, but the stats for Russell Wilson are too good to label him that way. Despite significant differences in how they play the position, Wilson's three-year start has been very similar to Tom Brady's first three years as a starter (2001-03). They both have an average rank of 10.3 in DVOA and DYAR (passing only) in those seasons. Fittingly, the Seahawks are looking to become the first repeat champion since the 2003-04 Patriots.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 27 Jan 2015, 4:51pm by Aaron Brooks Good Twin

22 Jan 2015, 03:31pm by Scott Kacsmar

Quarterback Postseason Drive Stats

This year's update to playoff drive stats looks at Andrew Luck's January misfortunes and Russell Wilson's field-position advantage.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 23 Jan 2015, 11:15am by Biebs

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