Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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SDA: Rivalry Showdowns

Rivalry week has significant conference and Playoff ramifications. Should Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, or Florida State be worried about getting upset by their rivals?

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Denver remains No. 1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, but New England moves up to No. 2 and has taken over as our Super Bowl favorite.

156 comments, Last Comment at 4:15pm by BDC

Nov 25, 2014 06:13pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Bears Bounce Back

Ben Muth breaks down Chicago's win over Minnesota, and defends the quarterback sweep on fourth-and-goal.

6 comments, Last Comment at 22 Nov 2014, 7:52am by OSS117

Nov 20, 2014 02:50pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 12 Quick Reads

A look at individual stats in key situations shows that Colin Kaepernick is struggling badly this year when the game is on the line.

38 comments, Last Comment at 26 Nov 2014, 1:29pm by Jason_PackerBacker

Nov 24, 2014 10:00pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Odell Beckham, Jr.

In only seven pro games, the Giants' rookie wideout has shown an ability to compete with the league's best defenders.

0 comments

Nov 27, 2014 10:10am by Vincent Verhei || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 12

Odell Beckham, Jr.: Greatest catch ever, or greatest-est catch ever?

227 comments, Last Comment at 26 Nov 2014, 11:20pm by chemical burn

Nov 24, 2014 09:57am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 13: Undefeated and Unloved

Florida State has yet to lose a game this year, but there's a reason you won't find them at the top of most rankings.

5 comments, Last Comment at 3:36pm by Brian Fremeau

Nov 26, 2014 12:00pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Who Needs Style Points?

The Playoff picture likely remained unchanged as the contenders all had unimpressive wins in Week 13.

0 comments

Nov 24, 2014 02:17pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: Rivalry Showdowns

Rivalry week has significant conference and Playoff ramifications. Should Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, or Florida State be worried about getting upset by their rivals?

0 comments

Nov 27, 2014 07:16pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: Hits, Misses, and the Year Zero Effect

Bill Connelly looks at the college offenses, defenses, and overall teams that have improved (Air Force!) or regressed (North Texas!) the most in 2014. Year Zero is a real thing (sometimes).

1 comment, Last Comment at 21 Nov 2014, 7:54pm by Kal

Nov 21, 2014 03:30pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Browns Over Falcons

When did Mike Smith become such a terrible coach? And how does a scatter-armed quarterback like Brian Hoyer win so much?

14 comments, Last Comment at 10:55am by Peregrine

Nov 25, 2014 09:46am GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: November 21, 2014

This week's theme: profanity. Please get your parents' permission before reading this column.

14 comments, Last Comment at 25 Nov 2014, 6:48pm by LionInAZ

Nov 21, 2014 08:38am by Vincent Verhei || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: The DVOA Schism

Mike and Tom try to figure out what kind of secret sauce Arizona is feeding the media to sit at the top of the power rankings and in the middle of our DVOA rankings.

3 comments, Last Comment at 12:14pm by Purds

Nov 26, 2014 12:25pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Six Memorable Lessons About Talent Evaluation

This week’s Futures makes a visit to the past. Matt Waldman lists the 10 most influential prospects in his development as a talent evaluator.

4 comments, Last Comment at 24 Nov 2014, 10:30am by mstickles

Nov 22, 2014 11:01am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
1IND95.9% 1NE18.7% 1OAK46.2%
2NE95.4% 2DEN17.0% 2JAC24.2%
3ARI94.3% 3GB14.5% 3NYJ13.3%
4DEN92.5% 4PHI7.4% 4TB9.7%
5GB89.4% 5BAL7.0% 5TEN4.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 12

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN35.6% 1DEN35.0%
2NE25.7% 2NE29.7%
3GB24.5% 3GB25.4%
4BAL22.4% 4BAL23.2%
5MIA19.1% 5MIA21.3%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 12

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN26.1% 1DEN25.9%
2GB24.6% 2GB25.4%
3PIT17.8% 3NE20.4%
4NE17.1% 4PIT17.6%
5DAL14.5% 5DAL14.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 12

2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DET-20.5% 1DET-20.6%
2SF-16.6% 2SF-17.8%
3BUF-14.9% 3BUF-15.9%
4DEN-14.3% 4DEN-14.4%
5ARI-12.6% 5ARI-13.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 12

2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI9.4% 1PHI9.3%
2BAL8.0% 2BAL9.1%
3NE6.9% 3NE7.5%
4KC5.8% 4KC6.6%
5IND5.8% 5IND6.1%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN1,284 1A.RodgersGB34.3%
2A.RodgersGB1,090 2P.ManningDEN32.1%
3D.BreesNO1,009 3T.RomoDAL24.2%
4T.BradyNE994 4T.BradyNE23.2%
5B.RoethlisbergerPIT877 5P.RiversSD22.1%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL298 1J.CharlesKC23.5% 1L.BellPIT169
2M.LynchSEA249 2M.LynchSEA22.9% 2M.ForteCHI168
3J.CharlesKC208 3D.MurrayDAL18.7% 3A.BradshawIND160
4L.MillerMIA157 4L.MillerMIA17.4% 4E.LacyGB105
5A.FosterHOU146 5A.FosterHOU13.8% 5M.LynchSEA88
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.CobbGB364 1R.CobbGB46.7%
2E.SandersDEN356 2M.FloydSD40.3%
3J.NelsonGB334 3O.BeckhamNYG38.4%
4A.BrownPIT324 4E.SandersDEN29.4%
5D.ThomasDEN317 5T.SmithBAL28.9%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE201 1T.WrightNE44.8%
2J.GrahamNO184 2D.AllenIND32.5%
3J.ThomasDEN136 3T.KelceKC29.2%
4G.OlsenCAR133 4J.ThomasDEN28.2%
5A.GatesSD133 5A.GatesSD26.7%
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Most Recent Articles

27 Nov 2014, 07:16pm by Chad Peltier

SDA: Rivalry Showdowns

Rivalry week has significant conference and Playoff ramifications. Should Alabama, Mississippi State, Oregon, or Florida State be worried about getting upset by their rivals?

» More...

0 comments

27 Nov 2014, 10:10am by Vincent Verhei

Film Room: Odell Beckham, Jr.

In only seven pro games, the Giants' rookie wideout has shown an ability to compete with the league's best defenders.

» More...

0 comments

26 Nov 2014, 12:25pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble for the Ball: The DVOA Schism

Mike and Tom try to figure out what kind of secret sauce Arizona is feeding the media to sit at the top of the power rankings and in the middle of our DVOA rankings.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 12:14pm by Purds

26 Nov 2014, 12:00pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI Week 13: Undefeated and Unloved

Florida State has yet to lose a game this year, but there's a reason you won't find them at the top of most rankings.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 3:36pm by Brian Fremeau

26 Nov 2014, 11:36am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Week 13 Fantasy Matchups

The bye weeks are finally over. Some of our favorite Week 13 matchups for salary-cap leagues include Ben Roethlisberger, Andre Ellington, Rashad Jennings and Reggie Wayne. If you're looking for a Thanksgiving sleeper, consider Jordan Matthews against Dallas.

» More...

0 comments

25 Nov 2014, 11:39pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: SEC West Showdowns

If the Iron Bowl and Egg Bowl contenders had swapped schedules this season, would they have swapped records as well?

» More...

0 comments

25 Nov 2014, 06:13pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 12 DVOA Ratings

Denver remains No. 1 in the Football Outsiders DVOA ratings, but New England moves up to No. 2 and has taken over as our Super Bowl favorite.

» More...

156 comments, Last at 4:15pm by BDC

25 Nov 2014, 02:40pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Week 12

Peyton Manning breaks the GWD record. Also: Tony Romo comes through in a game with high ratings, Mike Smith's timeout generosity, and dysfunction rules in the NFC's underbelly.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 25 Nov 2014, 11:15pm by techvet

25 Nov 2014, 09:46am by Andrew Healy

Any Given Sunday: Browns Over Falcons

When did Mike Smith become such a terrible coach? And how does a scatter-armed quarterback like Brian Hoyer win so much?

» More...

14 comments, Last at 10:55am by Peregrine

24 Nov 2014, 10:00pm by Vincent Verhei

Week 12 Quick Reads

A look at individual stats in key situations shows that Colin Kaepernick is struggling badly this year when the game is on the line.

» More...

38 comments, Last at 26 Nov 2014, 1:29pm by Jason_PackerBacker

24 Nov 2014, 02:17pm by Chad Peltier

OFI: Who Needs Style Points?

The Playoff picture likely remained unchanged as the contenders all had unimpressive wins in Week 13.

» More...

0 comments

24 Nov 2014, 09:57am by Andrew Potter

Audibles at the Line: Week 12

Odell Beckham, Jr.: Greatest catch ever, or greatest-est catch ever?

» More...

227 comments, Last at 26 Nov 2014, 11:20pm by chemical burn

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