Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008



2014 Pressure Plays: Defenses

No defense generated more pressure last year than Connor Barwin and the Eagles, but did that pressure do them any good?

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Futures: First-Round Time Capsule Mock

This week’s Futures is devoted to what Matt Waldman thinks the first round should look like based on his perspective of the game.

30 comments, Last Comment at 27 May 2015, 6:03am by libety86

Apr 27, 2015 11:35am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

79 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:15pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Ravens Wrap-Up

Ben Muth puts Baltimore's 2014 season to bed, and says their offensive line should be a solid building block for 2015.

12 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:17pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 16, 2015 09:13am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLIX Quick Reads

By FO's advanced numbers, the MVP of Super Bowl XLIX was an easy choice -- even though the losing team actually ended up with a higher DVOA rating.

58 comments, Last Comment at 04 Feb 2015, 7:26pm by herewegobrowniesherewego

Feb 02, 2015 10:44am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Richard Sherman

The Seahawks' defensive back will tell you he's the best corner in the game. Is he right?

17 comments, Last Comment at 17 May 2015, 1:17am by arias

Mar 30, 2015 12:16pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles: 2015 NFL Draft Day Two

The FO staff discusses some of the most surprising moves of the second and third rounds, including Carolina's trade up for Devin Funchess.

27 comments, Last Comment at 06 May 2015, 6:51pm by chemical burn

May 02, 2015 02:22pm GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

Final 2014 FEI Ratings

Yes, Oregon is still ranked ahead of Ohio State in the FEI ratings. Why do you ask?

6 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 11:18am by Kyndynos

Jan 14, 2015 01:16pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: May 2015

Among the unsavory topics discussed this month: deflated footballs (yes, still), Marky Mark, domestic violence, drug abuse, the Cleveland Browns offense, a gap-toothed TV boy from Indiana, Willy Wonka, kickers, and Roger Goodell as The Devil.

32 comments, Last Comment at 19 Jun 2015, 12:34am by LionInAZ

Jun 01, 2015 12:37pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Rare Positives

Mike and Tom recap the Super Bowl in the only way that matters: prop bets and commercials.

8 comments, Last Comment at 11 Feb 2015, 3:13am by Jerry

Feb 05, 2015 11:11am by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Innovative Statistics


Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA31.9% 1SEA33.1%
2DEN29.5% 2NE31.4%
3GB23.3% 3GB24.1%
4NE22.1% 4DEN23.9%
5BAL21.9% 5BAL22.4%
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Full SeasonWeighted
1GB24.7% 1GB26.8%
2PIT22.5% 2PIT22.0%
3DEN20.0% 3NE19.3%
4DAL16.8% 4DAL19.1%
5SEA16.8% 5SEA15.2%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-16.8% 1SEA-19.8%
2BUF-15.5% 2BUF-19.0%
3DET-13.9% 3DEN-13.3%
4DEN-13.2% 4HOU-12.7%
5SF-10.1% 5SF-11.3%
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Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI8.3% 1BAL10.4%
2BAL8.0% 2KC9.4%
3KC6.7% 3PHI8.2%
4BUF6.2% 4STL6.7%
5NE5.7% 5NE6.0%
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DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,572 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,564 2D.AndersonCAR27.8%
3P.ManningDEN1,412 3T.RomoDAL27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,225 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT26.8%
5T.RomoDAL1,187 5P.ManningDEN23.9%
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Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL382 1M.LynchSEA23.1% 1L.BellPIT316
2M.LynchSEA359 2J.CharlesKC19.9% 2A.BradshawIND152
3J.CharlesKC249 3L.MillerMIA17.8% 3M.ForteCHI127
4L.MillerMIA246 4C.J.AndersonDEN17.5% 4E.LacyGB112
5L.BellPIT205 5D.MurrayDAL14.8% 5P.ThomasNO111
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DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT554 1R.CobbGB35.7%
2J.NelsonGB482 2T.WilliamsDAL30.6%
3E.SandersDEN481 3K.StillsNO30.3%
4R.CobbGB479 4E.SandersDEN29.6%
5D.BryantDAL430 5D.BryantDAL27.0%
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DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE237 1T.WrightNE30.9%
2A.GatesSD204 2J.ThomasDEN24.7%
3G.OlsenCAR178 3N.PaulWAS24.4%
4T.KelceKC174 4A.GatesSD24.1%
5J.WittenDAL146 5T.KelceKC23.0%
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Most Recent Articles

01 Jul 2015, 01:55pm by Sterling Xie

2014 Pressure Plays: Defenses

No defense generated more pressure last year than Connor Barwin and the Eagles, but did that pressure do them any good?

» More...

3 comments, Last at 04 Jul 2015, 11:38am by OSS117

01 Jul 2015, 12:46pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Offenses Getting Older, Younger in 2015

This is a two-part series for ESPN Insider that's actually part of a four-part series. For the first time, we've done some work on estimated snap-weighted age for 2015, based on projected starters, last year's snap counts, and a regression that predicts snaps for rookies based on draft pick and position. The result is a look at which offenses are getting older this year (Indianapolis, Green Bay), which are getting younger (St. Louis, Tennessee), and what that means for how good those teams might be this season.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 01 Jul 2015, 1:44pm by Perfundle

30 Jun 2015, 12:00pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: Top 10 College Programs

Brian Fremeau uses his Program FEI methodology to compare his list of the top college football programs over the next few years to the ESPN Insider College Football Future Power Rankings. The ESPN experts like Ohio State the best, but for us, nothing matches the consistency of Alabama.

» More...


24 Jun 2015, 11:26pm by Sterling Xie

2014 Pressure Plays: Quarterbacks

Ben Roethlisberger's ability to perform under a heavy pass rush remains critical to Pittsburgh's offensive success.

» More...

21 comments, Last at 29 Jun 2015, 1:29pm by dank067

24 Jun 2015, 01:35pm by Andrew Healy

ESPN: Can Patriots Offense Keep Up Historic Pace?

Andrew Healy looks at where the Patriots rank among the best offenses in NFL history over a ten-year span, and what happened to those offenses in Year 11. Will a change in QB aging trends make it easier for the Pats to stay successful?

» More...

1 comment, Last at 25 Jun 2015, 1:34pm by Noah of Arkadia

23 Jun 2015, 01:47pm by Sterling Xie

2014 Play-Action Defense

We look at pass defense against play-action compared to defense against other passes in 2014. Is a strong pass rush key to a good defense against the play fake?

» More...

16 comments, Last at 28 Jun 2015, 4:07pm by OSS117

19 Jun 2015, 11:41am by Sterling Xie

2014 Play-Action Offense

If you did something better than any other team in the NFL, wouldn't you do that thing as often as you could? Not if you're the San Diego Chargers.

» More...

26 comments, Last at 24 Jun 2015, 7:43pm by Bobman

17 Jun 2015, 11:25am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Why Rams Can't Build Offense Around Gurley

Todd Gurley could be the best running back since Adrian Peterson, but it won't matter. In the modern NFL, you simply can't build your offense around the running back. You build around the quarterback.

» More...

38 comments, Last at 30 Jun 2015, 10:51am by BDC

08 Jun 2015, 11:37am by Scott Kacsmar

Four Downs: AFC West

Denver and San Diego face uncertainty along the offensive line. Oakland is banking on youth in the secondary, while the Chiefs hope to change their vertical passing struggles.

» More...

18 comments, Last at 16 Jun 2015, 6:46pm by theslothook

05 Jun 2015, 12:21pm by Vincent Verhei

Four Downs: NFC West

Seattle needs offensive linemen, San Francisco needs linebackers, St. Louis needs wide receivers, and the Cardinals need ... wait, offensive linemen? Seriously?

» More...

15 comments, Last at 15 Jun 2015, 3:53pm by jtr

03 Jun 2015, 01:51pm by Andrew Healy

Worst CB Charting Stats (and More on the Best)

A second look at 2014 pass coverage numbers casts the identity of football's best cornerback in doubt, but also exposes the worst corners in the NFL.

» More...

56 comments, Last at 20 Jun 2015, 6:44pm by LionInAZ

03 Jun 2015, 12:24pm by Andrew Healy

ESPN: Do Tampa WR Give Winston an Edge?

How do Vincent Jackson and Mike Evans compare to the best wide-receiver duos that first-year starting quarterbacks have had throughout NFL history? Is there any sense that having two tall, successful wide receivers will help Jameis Winston develop?

» More...

8 comments, Last at 08 Jun 2015, 10:57am by ChrisS

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