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Varsity Numbers: Honing in

Bill Connelly again looks at which college football teams the F/+ ratings are sure about, and which teams remain a mystery (led by Appalachian State).

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Denver: great team, or the greatest team? Would you be satisfied with "one of the ten greatest teams?" Plus: hard times in the NFC South, where defense goes to die.

159 comments, Last Comment at 24 Oct 2014, 9:10pm by The Hypno-Toad

Oct 21, 2014 06:34pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Rams' Big Win

Ben Muth's tape analysis shows that St. Louis rookie Greg Robinson is still a work in progress -- as is Seattle's defense.

4 comments, Last Comment at 24 Oct 2014, 12:29pm by jacobk

Oct 23, 2014 04:19pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 7 Quick Reads

Did Jerick McKinnon prove against Buffalo that he can be a feature back for Minnesota? Plus the best passers, runners, and receivers of Week 7.

95 comments, Last Comment at 24 Oct 2014, 9:59am by Karl Cuba

Oct 20, 2014 05:57pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Sen'Derrick Marks

The Jaguars' defensive tackle is a bit of a late bloomer, but he has become one of the bright spots in a dim season in Jacksonville.

0 comments

Oct 23, 2014 11:44am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 7

Week 7 features big comebacks for Buffalo and Detroit, big routs in Denver and Indianapolis, and big fat cojones for the St. Louis Rams special teams.

157 comments, Last Comment at 23 Oct 2014, 11:09am by Pat

Oct 20, 2014 09:08am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 8: What's With A&M?

Brian Fremeau explains why his rating system remains unimpressed with Texas A&M.

3 comments, Last Comment at 22 Oct 2014, 3:47pm by skunkfunk

Oct 22, 2014 09:37am by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Don't Make Saban Angry

Notre Dame and Baylor entered the one-loss group in what is shaping up to be an extremely tight race for playoff consideration.

0 comments

Oct 20, 2014 03:51pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: From Death Valley to Happy Valley

While Saturday won't give us an answer to which is the best one-loss team, it is still a big week for conference races across the country.

0 comments

Oct 23, 2014 05:31pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: Honing in

Bill Connelly again looks at which college football teams the F/+ ratings are sure about, and which teams remain a mystery (led by Appalachian State).

0 comments

Oct 24, 2014 03:52pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Rams Over Seahawks

Though it's easy to blame Seattle's loss to St. Louis on trick plays and special teams, Andrew Healy says teams are starting to exploit weaknesses in the Seahawks defense.

18 comments, Last Comment at 23 Oct 2014, 5:28pm by Grendel13G

Oct 21, 2014 12:30pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: October 24, 2014

We all love Peyton Manning, but Peyton Manning doesn't love us all. Plus, coaches talk fake punts and prank calls, owners talk binge drinking, and Golden Tate talks getting punched in the face.

7 comments, Last Comment at 24 Oct 2014, 9:01pm by The Hypno-Toad

Oct 24, 2014 01:01pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Getting it Right?

Instant replay review is one of the cornerstones of the modern NFL. The process and its myriad special rules have been internalized and constantly debated. Mike Kurtz wonders: is it worth it?

32 comments, Last Comment at 24 Oct 2014, 12:29am by LionInAZ

Oct 22, 2014 02:41pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Texas RB Malcolm Brown

DeMarco Murray is the toast of the NFL, but injury and team issues clouded some observers' view of his talent. Texas RB Malcolm Brown might have the same problem this winter. 

0 comments

Oct 19, 2014 01:03am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
1IND97.2% 1DEN25.6% 1OAK50.3%
2DEN97.0% 2GB14.2% 2JAC16.1%
3DAL90.1% 3BAL12.6% 3TB15.7%
4GB89.0% 4DAL10.1% 4NYJ8.7%
5BAL87.7% 5IND9.2% 5MIN2.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1DEN48.7% 1DEN44.2%
2BAL28.5% 2BAL26.1%
3GB26.1% 3GB25.6%
4SEA22.7% 4SEA21.0%
5IND19.4% 5IND18.1%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1DEN31.4% 1DEN29.9%
2GB19.9% 2GB20.1%
3DAL16.5% 3SD16.0%
4BAL16.2% 4DAL15.3%
5SD15.7% 5BAL14.3%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1DET-24.9% 1DET-22.5%
2DEN-18.2% 2DEN-15.4%
3MIA-11.1% 3BUF-10.0%
4BUF-10.5% 4MIA-9.0%
5ARI-10.0% 5SEA-8.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1PHI11.1% 1PHI8.4%
2ATL6.6% 2ATL5.9%
3BUF5.5% 3BUF4.9%
4IND5.1% 4IND4.7%
5PIT4.0% 5NE3.9%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.LuckIND774 1P.ManningDEN41.7%
2P.ManningDEN760 2P.RiversSD34.5%
3P.RiversSD688 3A.RodgersGB25.9%
4A.RodgersGB561 4A.LuckIND25.2%
5J.FlaccoBAL559 5J.FlaccoBAL22.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL208 1J.McKinnonMIN22.8% 1A.BradshawIND150
2R.JenningsNYG127 2R.JenningsNYG22.7% 2M.ForteCHI119
3M.LynchSEA107 3M.LynchSEA19.3% 3L.BellPIT119
4J.ForsettBAL89 4D.MurrayDAL18.2% 4A.SmithATL90
5C.IvoryNYJ76 5J.ForsettBAL15.5% 5P.ThomasNO70
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.CobbGB245 1M.FloydSD58.1%
2J.NelsonGB224 2R.CobbGB51.8%
3T.Y.HiltonIND211 3S.JohnsonSF42.4%
4D.ThomasDEN195 4T.WilliamsDAL40.2%
5E.SandersDEN191 5E.SandersDEN33.2%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1J.ThomasDEN138 1J.ThomasDEN46.6%
2T.KelceKC91 2T.KelceKC35.2%
3D.AllenIND91 3L.GreenSD34.5%
4G.OlsenCAR88 4Z.ErtzPHI33.9%
5A.GatesSD87 5D.AllenIND33.2%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

Most Recent Articles

24 Oct 2014, 03:52pm by Bill Connelly

Varsity Numbers: Honing in

Bill Connelly again looks at which college football teams the F/+ ratings are sure about, and which teams remain a mystery (led by Appalachian State).

» More...

0 comments

24 Oct 2014, 02:37pm by J.J. Cooper

Under Pressure: Letting Ben Down

As usual, the Steelers find themselves with one of the highest sack rates in the league. This year, though, it might not be Ben Roethlisberger's fault.

» More...

4 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2014, 10:21pm by Jerry

24 Oct 2014, 01:01pm by Rory Hickey

The Week In Quotes: October 24, 2014

We all love Peyton Manning, but Peyton Manning doesn't love us all. Plus, coaches talk fake punts and prank calls, owners talk binge drinking, and Golden Tate talks getting punched in the face.

» More...

7 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2014, 9:01pm by The Hypno-Toad

23 Oct 2014, 05:31pm by Chad Peltier

SDA: From Death Valley to Happy Valley

While Saturday won't give us an answer to which is the best one-loss team, it is still a big week for conference races across the country.

» More...

0 comments

23 Oct 2014, 04:19pm by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: Rams' Big Win

Ben Muth's tape analysis shows that St. Louis rookie Greg Robinson is still a work in progress -- as is Seattle's defense.

» More...

4 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2014, 12:29pm by jacobk

23 Oct 2014, 11:44am by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Sen'Derrick Marks

The Jaguars' defensive tackle is a bit of a late bloomer, but he has become one of the bright spots in a dim season in Jacksonville.

» More...

0 comments

22 Oct 2014, 09:18pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: Underrated Showdown

USC's underrated offense faces off with Utah's underrated defense on Saturday night.

» More...

0 comments

22 Oct 2014, 02:41pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble for the Ball: Getting it Right?

Instant replay review is one of the cornerstones of the modern NFL. The process and its myriad special rules have been internalized and constantly debated. Mike Kurtz wonders: is it worth it?

» More...

32 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2014, 12:29am by LionInAZ

22 Oct 2014, 12:22pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Week 8 Fantasy Matchups

Our favorite matchups for salary-cap leagues in Week 8 include Matthew Stafford, Justin Forsett, Randall Cobb, Travis Kelce and you'll want to go with the Broncos' skill players over San Diego's skill players in Thursday's big clash.

» More...

0 comments

22 Oct 2014, 09:37am by Brian Fremeau

FEI Week 8: What's With A&M?

Brian Fremeau explains why his rating system remains unimpressed with Texas A&M.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 22 Oct 2014, 3:47pm by skunkfunk

21 Oct 2014, 06:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Denver: great team, or the greatest team? Would you be satisfied with "one of the ten greatest teams?" Plus: hard times in the NFC South, where defense goes to die.

» More...

159 comments, Last at 24 Oct 2014, 9:10pm by The Hypno-Toad

21 Oct 2014, 03:03pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Week 7

Saints bomb again in the final minutes. Also: Kyle Orton's rare GWD, Andy Reid's game management, the return of Colt McCoy, Jets' regression and you can't blow out Russell Wilson.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 22 Oct 2014, 3:12am by Scott Kacsmar

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