Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Scramble for the Ball: Getting it Right?

Instant replay review is one of the cornerstones of the modern NFL. The process and its myriad special rules have been internalized and constantly debated. Mike Kurtz wonders: is it worth it?

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Denver: great team, or the greatest team? Would you be satisfied with "one of the ten greatest teams?" Plus: hard times in the NFC South, where defense goes to die.

121 comments, Last Comment at 9:10pm by theslothook

Oct 21, 2014 06:34pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Bad Day for Chicago

The screens went well for the Bears against Carolina, but that was about it.

23 comments, Last Comment at 14 Oct 2014, 2:13pm by atworkforu

Oct 09, 2014 10:49am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 7 Quick Reads

Did Jerick McKinnon prove against Buffalo that he can be a feature back for Minnesota? Plus the best passers, runners, and receivers of Week 7.

85 comments, Last Comment at 7:45pm by Vincent Verhei

Oct 20, 2014 05:57pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Sad State of the Steelers

Todd Haley is taking a lot of heat for Pittsburgh's struggles of late, but Cian Fahey says there's plenty of blame to go around.

26 comments, Last Comment at 18 Oct 2014, 12:56pm by jgrenci@zoominternet.net

Oct 16, 2014 11:47am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 7

Week 7 features big comebacks for Buffalo and Detroit, big routs in Denver and Indianapolis, and big fat cojones for the St. Louis Rams special teams.

155 comments, Last Comment at 2:08pm by Will Allen

Oct 20, 2014 09:08am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 8: What's With A&M?

Brian Fremeau explains why his rating system remains unimpressed with Texas A&M.

3 comments, Last Comment at 3:47pm by skunkfunk

Oct 22, 2014 09:37am by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Don't Make Saban Angry

Notre Dame and Baylor entered the one-loss group in what is shaping up to be an extremely tight race for playoff consideration.

0 comments

Oct 20, 2014 03:51pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: There Can Be Only One

This week we are rewarded with a big matchup between the Fighting Irish and Seminoles and the growing rivalry between the Aggies and Tide.

0 comments

Oct 16, 2014 02:14pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: F/+ vs. Reality

With the first complete F/+ ratings of the season out, Bill Connelly takes a look at the teams on which F/+ has a pretty good read and the teams that remain a mystery.

1 comment, Last Comment at 19 Oct 2014, 6:15am by Tomlin_Is_Infallible

Oct 17, 2014 05:21pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Rams Over Seahawks

Though it's easy to blame Seattle's loss to St. Louis on trick plays and special teams, Andrew Healy says teams are starting to exploit weaknesses in the Seahawks defense.

16 comments, Last Comment at 5:30pm by Andrew Healy

Oct 21, 2014 12:30pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: October 17, 2014

Donovan McNabb takes shots at Jay Cutler, Jay Cutler takes shots at Microsoft, Hines Ward takes shots at Ben Roethlisberger, and the Seahawks take shots at themselves.

39 comments, Last Comment at 20 Oct 2014, 5:59pm by TomC

Oct 17, 2014 11:16am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Getting it Right?

Instant replay review is one of the cornerstones of the modern NFL. The process and its myriad special rules have been internalized and constantly debated. Mike Kurtz wonders: is it worth it?

23 comments, Last Comment at 8:59pm by Bionicman

Oct 22, 2014 02:41pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Texas RB Malcolm Brown

DeMarco Murray is the toast of the NFL, but injury and team issues clouded some observers' view of his talent. Texas RB Malcolm Brown might have the same problem this winter. 

0 comments

Oct 19, 2014 01:03am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
1IND97.2% 1DEN25.6% 1OAK50.3%
2DEN97.0% 2GB14.2% 2JAC16.1%
3DAL90.1% 3BAL12.6% 3TB15.7%
4GB89.0% 4DAL10.1% 4NYJ8.7%
5BAL87.7% 5IND9.2% 5MIN2.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1DEN48.7% 1DEN44.2%
2BAL28.5% 2BAL26.1%
3GB26.1% 3GB25.6%
4SEA22.7% 4SEA21.0%
5IND19.4% 5IND18.1%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1DEN31.4% 1DEN29.9%
2GB19.9% 2GB20.1%
3DAL16.5% 3SD16.0%
4BAL16.2% 4DAL15.3%
5SD15.7% 5BAL14.3%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1DET-24.9% 1DET-22.5%
2DEN-18.2% 2DEN-15.4%
3MIA-11.1% 3BUF-10.0%
4BUF-10.5% 4MIA-9.0%
5ARI-10.0% 5SEA-8.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 7

2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1PHI11.1% 1PHI8.4%
2ATL6.6% 2ATL5.9%
3BUF5.5% 3BUF4.9%
4IND5.1% 4IND4.7%
5PIT4.0% 5NE3.9%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.LuckIND774 1P.ManningDEN41.7%
2P.ManningDEN760 2P.RiversSD34.5%
3P.RiversSD688 3A.RodgersGB25.9%
4A.RodgersGB561 4A.LuckIND25.2%
5J.FlaccoBAL559 5J.FlaccoBAL22.5%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL208 1J.McKinnonMIN22.8% 1A.BradshawIND150
2R.JenningsNYG127 2R.JenningsNYG22.7% 2M.ForteCHI119
3M.LynchSEA107 3M.LynchSEA19.3% 3L.BellPIT119
4J.ForsettBAL89 4D.MurrayDAL18.2% 4A.SmithATL90
5C.IvoryNYJ76 5J.ForsettBAL15.5% 5P.ThomasNO70
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.CobbGB245 1M.FloydSD58.1%
2J.NelsonGB224 2R.CobbGB51.8%
3T.Y.HiltonIND211 3S.JohnsonSF42.4%
4D.ThomasDEN195 4T.WilliamsDAL40.2%
5E.SandersDEN191 5E.SandersDEN33.2%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1J.ThomasDEN138 1J.ThomasDEN46.6%
2T.KelceKC91 2T.KelceKC35.2%
3D.AllenIND91 3L.GreenSD34.5%
4G.OlsenCAR88 4Z.ErtzPHI33.9%
5A.GatesSD87 5D.AllenIND33.2%
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Most Recent Articles

22 Oct 2014, 09:18pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: Underrated Showdown

USC's underrated offense faces off with Utah's underrated defense on Saturday night.

» More...

0 comments

22 Oct 2014, 02:41pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble for the Ball: Getting it Right?

Instant replay review is one of the cornerstones of the modern NFL. The process and its myriad special rules have been internalized and constantly debated. Mike Kurtz wonders: is it worth it?

» More...

23 comments, Last at 8:59pm by Bionicman

22 Oct 2014, 12:22pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Week 8 Fantasy Matchups

Our favorite matchups for salary-cap leagues in Week 8 include Matthew Stafford, Justin Forsett, Randall Cobb, Travis Kelce and you'll want to go with the Broncos' skill players over San Diego's skill players in Thursday's big clash.

» More...

0 comments

22 Oct 2014, 09:37am by Brian Fremeau

FEI Week 8: What's With A&M?

Brian Fremeau explains why his rating system remains unimpressed with Texas A&M.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 3:47pm by skunkfunk

21 Oct 2014, 06:34pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 7 DVOA Ratings

Denver: great team, or the greatest team? Would you be satisfied with "one of the ten greatest teams?" Plus: hard times in the NFC South, where defense goes to die.

» More...

121 comments, Last at 9:10pm by theslothook

21 Oct 2014, 03:03pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Week 7

Saints bomb again in the final minutes. Also: Kyle Orton's rare GWD, Andy Reid's game management, the return of Colt McCoy, Jets' regression and you can't blow out Russell Wilson.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 3:12am by Scott Kacsmar

21 Oct 2014, 12:30pm by Andrew Healy

Any Given Sunday: Rams Over Seahawks

Though it's easy to blame Seattle's loss to St. Louis on trick plays and special teams, Andrew Healy says teams are starting to exploit weaknesses in the Seahawks defense.

» More...

16 comments, Last at 5:30pm by Andrew Healy

20 Oct 2014, 05:57pm by Vincent Verhei

Week 7 Quick Reads

Did Jerick McKinnon prove against Buffalo that he can be a feature back for Minnesota? Plus the best passers, runners, and receivers of Week 7.

» More...

85 comments, Last at 7:45pm by Vincent Verhei

20 Oct 2014, 03:51pm by Chad Peltier

OFI: Don't Make Saban Angry

Notre Dame and Baylor entered the one-loss group in what is shaping up to be an extremely tight race for playoff consideration.

» More...

0 comments

20 Oct 2014, 09:08am by Andrew Potter

Audibles at the Line: Week 7

Week 7 features big comebacks for Buffalo and Detroit, big routs in Denver and Indianapolis, and big fat cojones for the St. Louis Rams special teams.

» More...

155 comments, Last at 2:08pm by Will Allen

19 Oct 2014, 01:03am by Matt Waldman

Futures: Texas RB Malcolm Brown

DeMarco Murray is the toast of the NFL, but injury and team issues clouded some observers' view of his talent. Texas RB Malcolm Brown might have the same problem this winter. 

» More...

0 comments

18 Oct 2014, 03:07pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Broncos' D Now Matches Offense

Over at ESPN Insider, a look at the Denver Broncos defense which ranks No. 2 in DVOA so far this season.

» More...

0 comments

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