Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Word of Muth: 2015 Season Preview

Resident offensive line expert Ben Muth previews the three teams on which he'll be focusing this season: Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Futures: First-Round Time Capsule Mock

This week’s Futures is devoted to what Matt Waldman thinks the first round should look like based on his perspective of the game.

31 comments, Last Comment at 22 Aug 2015, 5:59am by KimJen

Apr 27, 2015 11:35am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

79 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:15pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: 2015 Season Preview

Resident offensive line expert Ben Muth previews the three teams on which he'll be focusing this season: Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland.

29 comments, Last Comment at 8:18pm by Travis

Aug 31, 2015 03:19pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLIX Quick Reads

By FO's advanced numbers, the MVP of Super Bowl XLIX was an easy choice -- even though the losing team actually ended up with a higher DVOA rating.

58 comments, Last Comment at 04 Feb 2015, 7:26pm by herewegobrowniesherewego

Feb 02, 2015 10:44am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Ryan Fitzpatrick

By most numbers, Fitzpatrick had the best year of his career in 2014. Can he maintain that level with the Jets this fall?

20 comments, Last Comment at 31 Aug 2015, 8:16am by bubqr

Aug 26, 2015 11:09am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles: 2015 NFL Draft Day Two

The FO staff discusses some of the most surprising moves of the second and third rounds, including Carolina's trade up for Devin Funchess.

27 comments, Last Comment at 06 May 2015, 6:51pm by chemical burn

May 02, 2015 02:22pm GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

Final 2014 FEI Ratings

Yes, Oregon is still ranked ahead of Ohio State in the FEI ratings. Why do you ask?

6 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 11:18am by Kyndynos

Jan 14, 2015 01:16pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: August 2015

As preseason football mercifully winds down, voices around the league discuss injuries, hindquarters, fall guys, and body-shaming.

7 comments, Last Comment at 6:15pm by Steve in WI

Aug 28, 2015 09:31pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble: 2015 South Over/Unders

Mike and Tom finally get a shot at the southern divisions and wade through the fetid morass of mediocrity. Look out for Hott Takez!

32 comments, Last Comment at 31 Aug 2015, 7:31pm by panthersnbraves

Aug 27, 2015 04:15pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Win Super Bowl 50 (from Football Outsiders Almanac 2015)
1SEA 14.8%6 STL3.7% 11SD 3.3%
2 NE 12.4% 7 BAL 3.7% 12 DAL 3.1%
3DEN 8.3%8 CIN3.5% 13PIT 3.1%
4GB 8.0%9 MIN3.4% 14ATL 3.0%
5IND 4.6%10 PHI3.4% 15NO 2.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!Based on rosters as of July 15

2015 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

2015 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

2015 DEFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

2015 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

2015 DVOA ratings will be updated after Week 1 of the NFL season.

QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,572 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,564 2D.AndersonCAR27.8%
3P.ManningDEN1,412 3T.RomoDAL27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,225 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT26.8%
5T.RomoDAL1,187 5P.ManningDEN23.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL382 1M.LynchSEA23.1% 1L.BellPIT316
2M.LynchSEA359 2J.CharlesKC19.9% 2A.BradshawIND152
3J.CharlesKC249 3L.MillerMIA17.8% 3M.ForteCHI127
4L.MillerMIA246 4C.J.AndersonDEN17.5% 4E.LacyGB112
5L.BellPIT205 5D.MurrayDAL14.8% 5P.ThomasNO111
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT554 1R.CobbGB35.7%
2J.NelsonGB482 2T.WilliamsDAL30.6%
3E.SandersDEN481 3K.StillsNO30.3%
4R.CobbGB479 4E.SandersDEN29.6%
5D.BryantDAL430 5D.BryantDAL27.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE237 1T.WrightNE30.9%
2A.GatesSD204 2J.ThomasDEN24.7%
3G.OlsenCAR178 3N.PaulWAS24.4%
4T.KelceKC174 4A.GatesSD24.1%
5J.WittenDAL146 5T.KelceKC23.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

Most Recent Articles

31 Aug 2015, 09:50pm by Andrew Healy

Andrew Healy's Futures and Prop Bet Extravaganza

For entertainment purposes only, Andrew Healy makes imaginary wagers with pretend money on real football.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 6:10pm by Andrew Healy

31 Aug 2015, 03:19pm by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: 2015 Season Preview

Resident offensive line expert Ben Muth previews the three teams on which he'll be focusing this season: Dallas, Denver, and Cleveland.

» More...

29 comments, Last at 8:18pm by Travis

28 Aug 2015, 09:31pm by Rory Hickey

The Month In Quotes: August 2015

As preseason football mercifully winds down, voices around the league discuss injuries, hindquarters, fall guys, and body-shaming.

» More...

7 comments, Last at 6:15pm by Steve in WI

28 Aug 2015, 02:17pm by Scott Kacsmar

Catch Radius: Odell Beckham Has Company

Odell Beckham had the catch of the year, but he wasn't the only rookie star in 2014. We look at the catch radii for Kelvin Benjamin, Sammy Watkins, and Mike Evans.

» More...

0 comments

27 Aug 2015, 04:15pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble: 2015 South Over/Unders

Mike and Tom finally get a shot at the southern divisions and wade through the fetid morass of mediocrity. Look out for Hott Takez!

» More...

32 comments, Last at 31 Aug 2015, 7:31pm by panthersnbraves

27 Aug 2015, 09:28am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: 2015 Rankings for Under-25 Talent

Our annual rankings for NFL teams' under-25 talent has the Cowboys on top thanks to a well-executed plan for the offensive line. The Seahawks again rank 32nd, as their last few young stars just turned 25.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 27 Aug 2015, 3:56pm by Karl Cuba

26 Aug 2015, 01:00pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Top 25 Prospects 2015

Here's the ESPN Insider version of our Top 25 Prospects list from Football Outsiders Almanac 2015. Once again, this is our annual list of the top prospects among later-drafted and undrafted players who aren't rookies anymore, but are still young with potential to blossom and become important pieces on their teams. Pittsburgh's Martavis Bryant is this year's No. 1.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 27 Aug 2015, 4:37pm by Jerry

26 Aug 2015, 11:09am by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Ryan Fitzpatrick

By most numbers, Fitzpatrick had the best year of his career in 2014. Can he maintain that level with the Jets this fall?

» More...

20 comments, Last at 31 Aug 2015, 8:16am by bubqr

25 Aug 2015, 11:52am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Overrated and Underrated WR by Plus-Minus and YAC+

Looking at wide receivers from the past three years who look to be particularly overrated or underrated according to our plus-minus and YAC+ metrics, particularly when players are compared to their teammates in these metrics. The five overrated receivers are here, the five underrated receivers are here.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 26 Aug 2015, 6:39pm by nickbradley

21 Aug 2015, 01:56pm by Sterling Xie

ESPN: Will "Defensive-Minded" Coaches Help Atlanta or Chicago?

How long does it take a defense-oriented head coach to improve a terrible defense? Apparently, a little bit longer than it takes an offense-minded head coach to improve a terrible offense. Plus, learn why 2013 was the greatest year for hiring offensive minds as new coaches, and why Marc Trestman is like Ken O'Brien.

» More...

7 comments, Last at 28 Aug 2015, 9:06pm by Noah of Arkadia

21 Aug 2015, 12:02am by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble for the Ball: 2015 North Over/Unders

Mike and Tom attempt to pass judgment on the the Southern divisions, run afoul of Kelvin Benjamin's former ACL, and detour to the North instead.

» More...

69 comments, Last at 29 Aug 2015, 12:05am by LionInAZ

20 Aug 2015, 11:31am by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Philip Rivers

Exactly where should we list the Chargers' passer in the quarterback pecking order?

» More...

13 comments, Last at 21 Aug 2015, 1:53pm by Scott C

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