Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Football Outsiders Features

Week 15 DVOA Ratings

The New England Patriots have finally moved into the No. 1 spot in weighted DVOA this week. Also: Looking at how recent Denver wins are driven by defense instead of offense, and a Pittsburgh team that is very un-Steelers-like.

156 comments, Last Comment at 21 Dec 2014, 11:15pm by spujr

Dec 16, 2014 07:06pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Rams Wrap-Up

With the season almost through, Ben Muth takes one final look at the St. Louis line. There's hope for the future here, but some serious questions will need to be answered in the offseason.

5 comments, Last Comment at 20 Dec 2014, 2:16pm by shailandesman

Dec 18, 2014 10:19am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 15 Quick Reads

How unusual is the small-ball attack that Alex Smith and the Chiefs are using this year?

176 comments, Last Comment at 19 Dec 2014, 1:39am by tuluse

Dec 15, 2014 08:13pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Chris Harris

Is Harris one of the league's top cover corners, or a product of the system in which he plays? Cian Fahey says the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

25 comments, Last Comment at 20 Dec 2014, 2:12am by arias

Dec 18, 2014 11:49am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 16

The FO crew takes on the top contenders as the playoff field rounds into shape. Plus: the great Drew Brees debate of 2014.

190 comments, Last Comment at 12:33am by Joshua Northey

Dec 22, 2014 10:25am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 15: Tiebreakers

Brian Fremeau dives into the TCU vs. Baylor debate for the last time -- this season.

1 comment, Last Comment at 13 Dec 2014, 12:14pm by DFJinPgh

Dec 10, 2014 01:51pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: The First Final Four

All of the Playoff contenders won this week, but the Buckeyes jumped the Horned Frogs to make the Playoff cut. Do the advanced statistics agree with the Committee's decision?

18 comments, Last Comment at 09 Dec 2014, 4:28pm by Pat

Dec 08, 2014 12:16pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

2014-15 SDA Bowl Spectacular Part I

Bowl season begins with the unheralded and unranked, but features several tight pre-Christmas matchups.

1 comment, Last Comment at 21 Dec 2014, 1:44am by Raiderjoe

Dec 19, 2014 03:17pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: The 2014 College Receiver Crop

With Amari Cooper getting Heisman hype and Championship Weekend upon us, Bill Connelly takes a look at which college wideouts, tight ends, and pass-catching running backs have been the most successful in 2014.

2 comments, Last Comment at 05 Dec 2014, 7:11pm by Kal

Dec 05, 2014 04:14pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Bills Over Packers

Buffalo's domination of Aaron Rodgers on Sunday showed once again that elite defenses usually shut down elite offenses.

26 comments, Last Comment at 18 Dec 2014, 12:38pm by Andrew Healy

Dec 16, 2014 01:36pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: December 19, 2014

It's a Tom Brady-centric edition of TWIQ. What does he say about a potential rematch with Denver? Why does he like to headbutt people? And why do his teammates compare him to a Clydesdale?

10 comments, Last Comment at 20 Dec 2014, 2:57am by Insancipitory

Dec 19, 2014 06:13am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball vs. DYAR Fantasy Football

Mike and Tom finally get around to a candid discussion about the oft-requested and never-implemented DYAR fantasy football league.

9 comments, Last Comment at 21 Dec 2014, 12:47pm by Andrew Potter

Dec 17, 2014 01:53pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: UCLA QB Brett Hundley

Beyond the immediate considerations of Hundley's potential, the quarterback's tape raises larger questions about the position.

0 comments

Dec 20, 2014 12:11pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
14 TEAMS100.0% 1NE22.2% 1TB42.4%
2SEA96.9% 2DEN20.9% 2TEN30.6%
3GB92.8% 3SEA13.2% 3OAK13.6%
4DET88.9% 4GB11.8% 4JAC13.4%
5BAL87.6% 5DAL5.8% 5WAS0.01%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 15

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN33.2% 1NE35.1%
2NE27.2% 2DEN30.0%
3SEA25.4% 3BAL28.6%
4BAL25.1% 4SEA23.1%
5GB21.7% 5GB22.2%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 15

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1GB24.5% 1GB26.7%
2DEN23.4% 2PIT23.4%
3PIT22.3% 3NE22.0%
4NE16.6% 4DEN20.4%
5DAL14.9% 5DAL15.1%
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2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1BUF-16.6% 1BUF-21.9%
2DET-15.6% 2SF-14.6%
3DEN-13.6% 3ARI-13.8%
4SEA-11.9% 4DEN-13.8%
5SF-11.6% 5STL-13.8%
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2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI9.0% 1BAL10.1%
2BAL7.5% 2PHI9.0%
3BUF6.8% 3KC8.2%
4KC6.3% 4NE6.5%
5NE5.3% 5CIN6.4%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN1,496 1P.ManningDEN32.4%
2B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,315 2A.RodgersGB28.6%
3D.BreesNO1,308 3D.AndersonCAR24.8%
4A.RodgersGB1,259 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT24.5%
5T.BradyNE1,238 5T.RomoDAL23.6%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL367 1J.CharlesKC24.5% 1L.BellPIT273
2M.LynchSEA314 2M.LynchSEA21.6% 2A.BradshawIND159
3J.CharlesKC259 3D.MurrayDAL16.7% 3M.ForteCHI152
4L.BellPIT189 4J.HillCIN13.2% 4P.ThomasNO105
5J.HillCIN167 5L.MillerMIA12.9% 5E.LacyGB105
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT471 1M.FloydSD35.1%
2E.SandersDEN405 2R.CobbGB35.0%
3R.CobbGB399 3K.StillsNO35.0%
4J.NelsonGB383 4O.BeckhamNYG33.1%
5O.BeckhamNYG358 5T.SmithBAL31.0%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE264 1T.WrightNE35.5%
2T.KelceKC162 2J.ThomasDEN30.2%
3G.OlsenCAR158 3D.AllenIND27.5%
4A.GatesSD156 4T.KelceKC26.9%
5J.ThomasDEN149 5R.GronkowskiNE25.4%
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Most Recent Articles

22 Dec 2014, 10:25am by Andrew Potter

Audibles at the Line: Week 16

The FO crew takes on the top contenders as the playoff field rounds into shape. Plus: the great Drew Brees debate of 2014.

» More...

190 comments, Last at 12:33am by Joshua Northey

21 Dec 2014, 07:22pm by Scott Kacsmar

Game Preview: DEN-CIN

Maybe the Bengals are a paper tiger, but are they really that bad in prime time games? Is Peyton Manning struggling in Denver's new offense? We detail the Monday night clash.

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12 comments, Last at 12:42am by PaddyPat

20 Dec 2014, 12:11pm by Matt Waldman

Futures: UCLA QB Brett Hundley

Beyond the immediate considerations of Hundley's potential, the quarterback's tape raises larger questions about the position.

» More...

0 comments

19 Dec 2014, 04:17pm by Chad Peltier

2014-15 SDA Bowl Spectacular Part I

Bowl season begins with the unheralded and unranked, but features several tight pre-Christmas matchups.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 21 Dec 2014, 2:44am by Raiderjoe

19 Dec 2014, 06:13am by Rory Hickey

The Week In Quotes: December 19, 2014

It's a Tom Brady-centric edition of TWIQ. What does he say about a potential rematch with Denver? Why does he like to headbutt people? And why do his teammates compare him to a Clydesdale?

» More...

10 comments, Last at 20 Dec 2014, 2:57am by Insancipitory

18 Dec 2014, 11:49am by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Chris Harris

Is Harris one of the league's top cover corners, or a product of the system in which he plays? Cian Fahey says the answer lies somewhere in the middle.

» More...

25 comments, Last at 20 Dec 2014, 2:12am by arias

18 Dec 2014, 11:23am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Race for No. 1 Pick Update

Here's an update on the race for the No. 1 overall pick. Tonight's Jacksonville-Tennessee game means a lot, but Tampa Bay still has the best shot at it. And check out the ridiculous dominoes that would need to fall for Washington to get the top pick!

» More...

0 comments

18 Dec 2014, 10:19am by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: Rams Wrap-Up

With the season almost through, Ben Muth takes one final look at the St. Louis line. There's hope for the future here, but some serious questions will need to be answered in the offseason.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 20 Dec 2014, 2:16pm by shailandesman

17 Dec 2014, 02:53pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble for the Ball vs. DYAR Fantasy Football

Mike and Tom finally get around to a candid discussion about the oft-requested and never-implemented DYAR fantasy football league.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 21 Dec 2014, 1:47pm by Andrew Potter

16 Dec 2014, 08:54pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Week 16 Fantasy Matchups

Some of our favorite Week 16 matchups for salary-cap leagues include Matthew Stafford, C.J. Anderson, Jeremy Maclin and Travis Kelce. I also think Alex Smith will actually throw a touchdown to a wide receiver (Dwayne Bowe) while Kyle Orton will help Charles Woodson get his 60th career interception. A high-priced stack of Aaron Rodgers and Jordy Nelson in Tampa Bay is something you'll want to do as well.

» More...

0 comments

16 Dec 2014, 07:06pm by Aaron Schatz

Week 15 DVOA Ratings

The New England Patriots have finally moved into the No. 1 spot in weighted DVOA this week. Also: Looking at how recent Denver wins are driven by defense instead of offense, and a Pittsburgh team that is very un-Steelers-like.

» More...

156 comments, Last at 21 Dec 2014, 11:15pm by spujr

16 Dec 2014, 04:49pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Week 15

One-point rallies and questionable punts highlight a Week 15 with 10 close finishes. Did Jay Gruden give up on winning? Also: familiar blueprint beats Packers.

» More...

7 comments, Last at 18 Dec 2014, 7:36pm by BengalFaninIN

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