Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Scramble Over/Unders: the Norths

The league's northern divisions pose a number of meaty questions, such as: "Is the Bears' offense due for a repeat performance?" "Why do the Lions have such pronounced splits?" and "Has Johnny Manziel made the Cleveland brass even crazier?"

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Let Me Check My Schedule

Kenneth Arthur looks at how DVOA and strength of schedule play with each other, especially in regards to Super Bowl possibilities.

24 comments, Last Comment at 26 Aug 2014, 5:02pm by ThatemW

Jul 03, 2014 01:32pm by Guest || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Chicago Bears Preview

Ben Muth reveals which offensive lines he'll be covering this season, including the Chicago Bears. How did they improve so drastically in 2013, and can they maintain that improvement this fall?

8 comments, Last Comment at 24 Aug 2014, 12:45pm by Will Allen

Aug 21, 2014 12:00pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLVIII Quick Reads

Seattle won in all three phases with the best single-game DVOA of 2013, but DYAR numbers don't do anything to shed more light on the MVP debate in Super Bowl XLVIII.

136 comments, Last Comment at 20 Jun 2014, 10:41pm by Shady

Feb 03, 2014 02:33pm GMT by Vince Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Eli Manning

Why did Eli Manning struggle so badly in 2013, and what can he and the Giants do to ensure better results this season?

39 comments, Last Comment at 24 Aug 2014, 3:05pm by Ferguson1015

Aug 21, 2014 04:17pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLVIII

We thought that the best defense of the year would cancel out the best offense of the year. Instead, the best defense of the year delivered a thorough, 60-minute asskicking to the best offense of the year.

231 comments, Last Comment at 09 Feb 2014, 6:15pm by LionInAZ

Feb 03, 2014 01:04am GMT by Rivers McCown || read all Audibles articles

FEI Primer: Right and Wrong

Brian Fremeau looks back at some of his favorite mistakes from 2013, and unveils the final preseason FEI ratings.

0 comments

Aug 27, 2014 02:57pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: True Seminoles Come Through

Florida State didn't need "momentum" to claim the national championship, only to be itself. Matt Hinton reviews the dramatic title game and the rest of college football's bowl season, including the season's final top 25 and Lowsman Trophy Watch.

7 comments, Last Comment at 26 Jan 2014, 7:13pm by www.louisoslo.com/Epi-Nomade-L-r-Veske

Jan 08, 2014 03:51pm by Matt Hinton || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA Championship Edition: View to a Kill?

Make a checklist of what a championship team looks like, and Florida State can check every box. Auburn? Not even close. But can FSU overcome the Tigers' prolific ground game, and seven years of SEC dominance on college football's biggest stage?

7 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2014, 7:30pm by Will Allen

Jan 06, 2014 02:33pm by Matt Hinton || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: Updated 2014 Projections

Bill Connelly says hello to the 2014 college football season by giving the F/+ projections some last-second tweaks.

6 comments, Last Comment at 4:15pm by Bill Connelly

Aug 26, 2014 03:41pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: 49ers Over Cardinals

San Francisco held off Arizona to claim the No. 5 seed by jumping on the Cardinals defense early and taking advantage of poor Arizona special teams.

5 comments, Last Comment at 25 Jan 2014, 6:31am by louis vuitton solbriller

Dec 31, 2013 12:03pm GMT by Mike Ridley || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: August 22, 2014

A very classy edition of TWIQ brings you observations on obscene gestures, racial slurs, pro wrestling, intrasquad brawling, inappropriate places for urination, and preteen sexual activity.

17 comments, Last Comment at 26 Aug 2014, 11:19pm by LionInAZ

Aug 22, 2014 12:24pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble Over/Unders: the Norths

The league's northern divisions pose a number of meaty questions, such as: "Is the Bears' offense due for a repeat performance?" "Why do the Lions have such pronounced splits?" and "Has Johnny Manziel made the Cleveland brass even crazier?"

0 comments

Aug 27, 2014 03:42pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Tom Savage

Savage has the physical skills and flashes of on-field play that make him look like a first-rounder. Is his rumored late rise up draft boards a product of hyperbolic thinking?

5 comments, Last Comment at 11 May 2014, 3:30am by Mr Shush

Apr 30, 2014 01:15pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

2013 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA40.0% 1SEA43.7%
2DEN32.7% 2DEN27.0%
3CAR24.6% 3PHI25.6%
4NO19.3% 4CAR24.7%
5NE18.9% 5NE24.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2013 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN33.5% 1DEN26.7%
2SD23.1% 2NE26.2%
3PHI22.9% 3PHI25.4%
4NE16.4% 4SD23.7%
5NO16.0% 5NO17.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2013 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-25.9% 1SEA-30.0%
2ARI-16.4% 2ARI-18.5%
3CAR-15.7% 3CAR-18.0%
4BUF-13.8% 4NYG-16.7%
5CIN-12.6% 5BUF-16.3%
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2013 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1KC7.8% 1KC9.2%
2NE6.7% 2BAL8.8%
3BAL6.3% 3STL8.7%
4STL6.3% 4NE7.5%
5SEA4.7% 5SF6.7%
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QUARTERBACKS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN2,475 1P.ManningDEN43.2%
2P.RiversSD1,799 2N.FolesPHI35.6%
3D.BreesNO1,701 3P.RiversSD34.8%
4M.RyanATL1,124 4J.McCownCHI32.1%
5N.FolesPHI1,011 5D.BreesNO26.9%
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RUNNING BACKS 2013

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1L.McCoyPHI341 1D.MurrayDAL24.0% 1D.WoodheadSD282
2D.MurrayDAL295 2D.BrownIND19.2% 2J.BellDET196
3J.CharlesKC247 3L.McCoyPHI18.1% 3K.MorenoDEN192
4M.ForteCHI193 4A.EllingtonARI17.5% 4D.SprolesNO174
5M.LynchSEA185 5R.JenningsOAK15.8% 5G.BernardCIN169
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1D.ThomasDEN430 1K.StillsNO40.1%
2J.NelsonGB402 2D.BaldwinSEA33.3%
3A.BoldinSF386 3M.JonesCIN32.4%
4E.DeckerDEN381 4E.RoyalSD31.6%
5A.BrownPIT361 5K.AllenSD28.2%
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TIGHT ENDS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1J.GrahamNO223 1L.GreenSD45.3%
2J.ThomasDEN214 2J.CumberlandNYJ38.0%
3V.DavisSF199 3V.DavisSF29.3%
4T.GonzalezATL135 4J.ThomasDEN27.0%
5J.WittenDAL134 5J.FinleyGB25.8%
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Most Recent Articles

27 Aug 2014, 03:42pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble Over/Unders: the Norths

The league's northern divisions pose a number of meaty questions, such as: "Is the Bears' offense due for a repeat performance?" "Why do the Lions have such pronounced splits?" and "Has Johnny Manziel made the Cleveland brass even crazier?"

» More...

0 comments

27 Aug 2014, 02:57pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI Primer: Right and Wrong

Brian Fremeau looks back at some of his favorite mistakes from 2013, and unveils the final preseason FEI ratings.

» More...

0 comments

27 Aug 2014, 11:53am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Super Bowl Odds

ESPN Insider asked me to give Super Bowl odds for all 32 teams along with a sentence or two about what a championship season would look like for each franchise. These are updated odds that account for the Sam Bradford injury and numerous preseason changes, although not yesterday's New England-Tampa Bay trade. Denver leads at 16.9 percent.

» More...

0 comments

26 Aug 2014, 05:14pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Race for No. 1 Pick in 2015 NFL Draft

At Insider we looked at the 10 teams who finished 4-12 or worse in the highest percentage of our simulations used for projections in Football Outsiders Almanac 2014. Oakland has missed out by the smallest of margins the last two years, but the Raiders lead the way this year.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 26 Aug 2014, 8:07pm by herewegobrowniesherewego

26 Aug 2014, 03:41pm by Bill Connelly

Varsity Numbers: Updated 2014 Projections

Bill Connelly says hello to the 2014 college football season by giving the F/+ projections some last-second tweaks.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 4:15pm by Bill Connelly

25 Aug 2014, 12:50pm by Scott Kacsmar

NFL Division Strength (2002-2013)

In the last 12 years, which divisions have been the strongest? The weakest? The best on offense and defense? The best DVOA? Does playing in a strong division lead to more playoff success?

» More...

6 comments, Last at 26 Aug 2014, 10:23am by nat

22 Aug 2014, 04:33pm by Vince Verhei

2014 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Underrated

Going too low in your fantasy draft: veteran quarterbacks, running backs who do more with their hands than their feet, and Houston's (only) two good receivers.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 26 Aug 2014, 2:20pm by Dad2sca

22 Aug 2014, 12:24pm by Rory Hickey

The Week In Quotes: August 22, 2014

A very classy edition of TWIQ brings you observations on obscene gestures, racial slurs, pro wrestling, intrasquad brawling, inappropriate places for urination, and preteen sexual activity.

» More...

17 comments, Last at 26 Aug 2014, 11:19pm by LionInAZ

21 Aug 2014, 07:07pm by Vince Verhei

2014 KUBIAK vs. ADP: The Overrated

Where does KUBIAK differ most strongly from public opinion, and which players are most likely to disappoint their owners in the upcoming fantasy football season?

» More...

10 comments, Last at 26 Aug 2014, 3:42pm by osoviejo

21 Aug 2014, 04:17pm by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Eli Manning

Why did Eli Manning struggle so badly in 2013, and what can he and the Giants do to ensure better results this season?

» More...

39 comments, Last at 24 Aug 2014, 3:05pm by Ferguson1015

21 Aug 2014, 12:06pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Is NFC West Best Division Ever?

Is the NFC West the best division ever? Winning percentage and point differential call the 2013 NFC West the best division in the eight-division era, but DVOA actually begs one as being a little bit better: the 2004 AFC East.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 21 Aug 2014, 11:21pm by mehllageman56

21 Aug 2014, 12:00pm by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: Chicago Bears Preview

Ben Muth reveals which offensive lines he'll be covering this season, including the Chicago Bears. How did they improve so drastically in 2013, and can they maintain that improvement this fall?

» More...

8 comments, Last at 24 Aug 2014, 12:45pm by Will Allen

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