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Clutch Encounters: Week 12

Peyton Manning breaks the GWD record. Also: Tony Romo comes through in a game with high ratings, Mike Smith's timeout generosity, and dysfunction rules in the NFC's underbelly.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Denver is still No. 1, but as the weakest first-place team in DVOA history. Tampa Bay is almost the strongest last-place team in DVOA history. And Arizona is still inexplicably No. 15 at 9-1. Ball of confusion: that's what DVOA is today. Hey hey.

185 comments, Last Comment at 3:20am by ronnyo

Nov 18, 2014 08:03pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Bears Bounce Back

Ben Muth breaks down Chicago's win over Minnesota, and defends the quarterback sweep on fourth-and-goal.

6 comments, Last Comment at 22 Nov 2014, 7:52am by OSS117

Nov 20, 2014 02:50pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 12 Quick Reads

A look at individual stats in key situations shows that Colin Kaepernick is struggling badly this year when the game is on the line.

33 comments, Last Comment at 5:39pm by Tim F.

Nov 24, 2014 10:00pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Rams Pass Rush

The Rams' pass rush got off to a slow start this year, but Cian Fahey says they have talent on hand to dominate for the next several years.

2 comments, Last Comment at 20 Nov 2014, 8:03pm by bravehoptoad

Nov 20, 2014 11:21am by Vincent Verhei || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 12

Odell Beckham, Jr.: Greatest catch ever, or greatest-est catch ever?

212 comments, Last Comment at 5:33pm by JoeyHarringtonsPiano

Nov 24, 2014 09:57am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 12: Mean Field Position

What does Alabama's victory over Mississippi State tell us about the best ways to measure field position?

0 comments

Nov 19, 2014 10:43pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Who Needs Style Points?

The Playoff picture likely remained unchanged as the contenders all had unimpressive wins in Week 13.

0 comments

Nov 24, 2014 02:17pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: Bowl Position

The games this week are much less hyped than last week's, but they still feature closely-ranked teams vying for conference pecking order in bowl season.

0 comments

Nov 20, 2014 10:28pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: Hits, Misses, and the Year Zero Effect

Bill Connelly looks at the college offenses, defenses, and overall teams that have improved (Air Force!) or regressed (North Texas!) the most in 2014. Year Zero is a real thing (sometimes).

1 comment, Last Comment at 21 Nov 2014, 6:54pm by Kal

Nov 21, 2014 02:30pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Browns Over Falcons

When did Mike Smith become such a terrible coach? And how does a scatter-armed quarterback like Brian Hoyer win so much?

8 comments, Last Comment at 4:53pm by Joshua Northey

Nov 25, 2014 09:46am GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: November 21, 2014

This week's theme: profanity. Please get your parents' permission before reading this column.

13 comments, Last Comment at 22 Nov 2014, 3:24pm by Andrew Potter

Nov 21, 2014 08:38am by Vincent Verhei || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Second-Half Loser League Names

Mike and Tom studiously avoid a Steelers-Titans game that left them both unhappy, and instead give thanks for the best Loser League team names of the second half.

6 comments, Last Comment at 22 Nov 2014, 5:18pm by Tom Gower

Nov 19, 2014 02:45pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Six Memorable Lessons About Talent Evaluation

This week’s Futures makes a visit to the past. Matt Waldman lists the 10 most influential prospects in his development as a talent evaluator.

4 comments, Last Comment at 24 Nov 2014, 10:30am by mstickles

Nov 22, 2014 11:01am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
1IND95.9% 1NE18.7% 1OAK46.2%
2NE95.4% 2DEN17.0% 2JAC24.2%
3ARI94.3% 3GB14.5% 3NYJ13.3%
4DEN92.5% 4PHI7.4% 4TB9.7%
5GB89.4% 5BAL7.0% 5TEN4.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 12

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN31.5% 1DEN30.4%
2GB23.9% 2GB24.9%
3BAL22.0% 3BAL23.3%
4MIA20.0% 4MIA22.1%
5NE19.6% 5NE20.6%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1GB22.5% 1GB23.6%
2DEN18.5% 2DEN17.6%
3PIT16.9% 3PIT16.7%
4NE13.8% 4NE15.4%
5NO13.6% 5KC14.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DET-22.3% 1DET-22.1%
2DEN-17.2% 2DEN-17.4%
3MIA-16.0% 3SF-17.3%
4SF-15.5% 4MIA-16.2%
5BUF-13.2% 5BUF-14.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1BAL8.4% 1BAL9.4%
2PHI7.4% 2PHI7.2%
3IND5.8% 3NE6.2%
4NE5.8% 4IND6.0%
5BUF5.5% 5KC5.4%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN1,284 1A.RodgersGB34.3%
2A.RodgersGB1,090 2P.ManningDEN32.1%
3D.BreesNO1,009 3T.RomoDAL24.2%
4T.BradyNE994 4T.BradyNE23.2%
5B.RoethlisbergerPIT877 5P.RiversSD22.1%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL298 1J.CharlesKC23.5% 1L.BellPIT169
2M.LynchSEA249 2M.LynchSEA22.9% 2M.ForteCHI168
3J.CharlesKC208 3D.MurrayDAL18.7% 3A.BradshawIND160
4L.MillerMIA157 4L.MillerMIA17.4% 4E.LacyGB105
5A.FosterHOU146 5A.FosterHOU13.8% 5M.LynchSEA88
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.CobbGB364 1R.CobbGB46.7%
2E.SandersDEN356 2M.FloydSD40.3%
3J.NelsonGB334 3O.BeckhamNYG38.4%
4A.BrownPIT324 4E.SandersDEN29.4%
5D.ThomasDEN317 5T.SmithBAL28.9%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE201 1T.WrightNE44.8%
2J.GrahamNO184 2D.AllenIND32.5%
3J.ThomasDEN136 3T.KelceKC29.2%
4G.OlsenCAR133 4J.ThomasDEN28.2%
5A.GatesSD133 5A.GatesSD26.7%
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Most Recent Articles

25 Nov 2014, 02:40pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Week 12

Peyton Manning breaks the GWD record. Also: Tony Romo comes through in a game with high ratings, Mike Smith's timeout generosity, and dysfunction rules in the NFC's underbelly.

» More...

0 comments

25 Nov 2014, 09:46am by Andrew Healy

Any Given Sunday: Browns Over Falcons

When did Mike Smith become such a terrible coach? And how does a scatter-armed quarterback like Brian Hoyer win so much?

» More...

8 comments, Last at 4:53pm by Joshua Northey

24 Nov 2014, 10:00pm by Vincent Verhei

Week 12 Quick Reads

A look at individual stats in key situations shows that Colin Kaepernick is struggling badly this year when the game is on the line.

» More...

33 comments, Last at 5:39pm by Tim F.

24 Nov 2014, 02:17pm by Chad Peltier

OFI: Who Needs Style Points?

The Playoff picture likely remained unchanged as the contenders all had unimpressive wins in Week 13.

» More...

0 comments

24 Nov 2014, 09:57am by Andrew Potter

Audibles at the Line: Week 12

Odell Beckham, Jr.: Greatest catch ever, or greatest-est catch ever?

» More...

212 comments, Last at 5:33pm by JoeyHarringtonsPiano

22 Nov 2014, 11:01am by Matt Waldman

Futures: Six Memorable Lessons About Talent Evaluation

This week’s Futures makes a visit to the past. Matt Waldman lists the 10 most influential prospects in his development as a talent evaluator.

» More...

4 comments, Last at 24 Nov 2014, 10:30am by mstickles

21 Nov 2014, 03:30pm by Bill Connelly

VN: Hits, Misses, and the Year Zero Effect

Bill Connelly looks at the college offenses, defenses, and overall teams that have improved (Air Force!) or regressed (North Texas!) the most in 2014. Year Zero is a real thing (sometimes).

» More...

1 comment, Last at 21 Nov 2014, 7:54pm by Kal

21 Nov 2014, 02:19pm by J.J. Cooper

Under Pressure: Carolina's Sorry Season

Only one team has given up more sacks than Carolina. Who's responsible? Pretty much everyone.

» More...

0 comments

21 Nov 2014, 12:58pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Chiefs at Raiders

Oakland's first GWD in over two years stunned the Chiefs on Thursday night. We look at the keys to the upset and the craziest premature celebration in NFL history.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2014, 1:28pm by Vincent Verhei

21 Nov 2014, 08:38am by Vincent Verhei

The Week In Quotes: November 21, 2014

This week's theme: profanity. Please get your parents' permission before reading this column.

» More...

13 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2014, 3:24pm by Andrew Potter

20 Nov 2014, 10:28pm by Chad Peltier

SDA: Bowl Position

The games this week are much less hyped than last week's, but they still feature closely-ranked teams vying for conference pecking order in bowl season.

» More...

0 comments

20 Nov 2014, 02:50pm by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: Bears Bounce Back

Ben Muth breaks down Chicago's win over Minnesota, and defends the quarterback sweep on fourth-and-goal.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 22 Nov 2014, 7:52am by OSS117

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