Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Football Outsiders Features

Futures: Winston, Hundley, Mariota, and Footwork

For quarterbacks, the feet are the window to the mind.

1 comment, Last Comment at 01 Apr 2015, 3:11pm by mehllageman56

Apr 01, 2015 01:17pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

79 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:15pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Ravens Wrap-Up

Ben Muth puts Baltimore's 2014 season to bed, and says their offensive line should be a solid building block for 2015.

12 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:17pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 16, 2015 09:13am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLIX Quick Reads

By FO's advanced numbers, the MVP of Super Bowl XLIX was an easy choice -- even though the losing team actually ended up with a higher DVOA rating.

59 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:17pm by EdwardBPhelps

Feb 02, 2015 10:44am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Richard Sherman

The Seahawks' defensive back will tell you he's the best corner in the game. Is he right?

16 comments, Last Comment at 31 Mar 2015, 7:37pm by tuluse

Mar 30, 2015 12:16pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLIX

The closest matchup in Super Bowl history ends with a play call nobody understands... and a fourth title for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

354 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:18pm by EdwardBPhelps

Feb 02, 2015 01:49am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

Final 2014 FEI Ratings

Yes, Oregon is still ranked ahead of Ohio State in the FEI ratings. Why do you ask?

6 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 11:18am by Kyndynos

Jan 14, 2015 01:16pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: February 2015

From Ray Rice to Russell Wilson to Matt Millen to DeAngelo Williams, it was a month of regret over past mistakes around the NFL.

14 comments, Last Comment at 09 Mar 2015, 5:17pm by ChrisS

Mar 06, 2015 01:15pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Rare Positives

Mike and Tom recap the Super Bowl in the only way that matters: prop bets and commercials.

8 comments, Last Comment at 11 Feb 2015, 3:13am by Jerry

Feb 05, 2015 11:11am by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Innovative Statistics

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA31.9% 1SEA33.1%
2DEN29.5% 2NE31.4%
3GB23.3% 3GB24.1%
4NE22.1% 4DEN23.9%
5BAL21.9% 5BAL22.4%
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2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1GB24.7% 1GB26.8%
2PIT22.5% 2PIT22.0%
3DEN20.0% 3NE19.3%
4DAL16.8% 4DAL19.1%
5SEA16.8% 5SEA15.2%
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2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-16.8% 1SEA-19.8%
2BUF-15.5% 2BUF-19.0%
3DET-13.9% 3DEN-13.3%
4DEN-13.2% 4HOU-12.7%
5SF-10.1% 5SF-11.3%
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2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI8.3% 1BAL10.4%
2BAL8.0% 2KC9.4%
3KC6.7% 3PHI8.2%
4BUF6.2% 4STL6.7%
5NE5.7% 5NE6.0%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,572 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,564 2D.AndersonCAR27.8%
3P.ManningDEN1,412 3T.RomoDAL27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,225 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT26.8%
5T.RomoDAL1,187 5P.ManningDEN23.9%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL382 1M.LynchSEA23.1% 1L.BellPIT316
2M.LynchSEA359 2J.CharlesKC19.9% 2A.BradshawIND152
3J.CharlesKC249 3L.MillerMIA17.8% 3M.ForteCHI127
4L.MillerMIA246 4C.J.AndersonDEN17.5% 4E.LacyGB112
5L.BellPIT205 5D.MurrayDAL14.8% 5P.ThomasNO111
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT554 1R.CobbGB35.7%
2J.NelsonGB482 2T.WilliamsDAL30.6%
3E.SandersDEN481 3K.StillsNO30.3%
4R.CobbGB479 4E.SandersDEN29.6%
5D.BryantDAL430 5D.BryantDAL27.0%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE237 1T.WrightNE30.9%
2A.GatesSD204 2J.ThomasDEN24.7%
3G.OlsenCAR178 3N.PaulWAS24.4%
4T.KelceKC174 4A.GatesSD24.1%
5J.WittenDAL146 5T.KelceKC23.0%
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Most Recent Articles

01 Apr 2015, 01:17pm by Matt Waldman

Futures: Winston, Hundley, Mariota, and Footwork

For quarterbacks, the feet are the window to the mind.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 01 Apr 2015, 3:11pm by mehllageman56

31 Mar 2015, 12:18pm by Aaron Schatz

Aggressiveness Index 2014

A look at fourth-down decision making in 2014 highlights Sean Payton, Marc Trestman, and... wait, this can't be right... Jim Caldwell? Plus: Chip Kelly may be less aggressive than you think he is.

» More...

19 comments, Last at 01 Apr 2015, 11:38pm by nath

30 Mar 2015, 12:16pm by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Richard Sherman

The Seahawks' defensive back will tell you he's the best corner in the game. Is he right?

» More...

16 comments, Last at 31 Mar 2015, 7:37pm by tuluse

27 Mar 2015, 12:51pm by Scott Kacsmar

2014: Year of the Short-Yardage Pass

Short-yardage passing had a good year, except at the end of the Super Bowl. We look at the return of quarterback runs, the rise in pass-happy strategy, and 2014 success rates for offense and defense.

» More...

7 comments, Last at 01 Apr 2015, 10:37am by Pat

26 Mar 2015, 12:43pm by Guest

Are Teams Faking Injuries? Part II

Guest columnist Jared Cohen's research shows that Philadelphia may not be the only offense that sees an unusually high rate of opposing injuries.

» More...

24 comments, Last at 30 Mar 2015, 12:11pm by dmstorm22

26 Mar 2015, 12:20pm by Aaron Schatz

Playmaker Score 2015 (ESPN Insider version)

Here are Nathan Forster's Playmaker Score projections for the top WR prospects of 2015. We've got Amari Cooper way ahead of everyone else, with some red flags for prized prospects like Kevin White (didn't produce until senior year) and Dorial Green-Beckham (didn't stand out compared to teammates). There will be an expanded piece with all the Playmaker Scores for 2015 (both "rating" and "projection") on FO next week, and then the same with Nathan's SackSEER projections for edge rushers: ESPN Insider next week and FO the week after.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 30 Mar 2015, 2:09am by Dan

25 Mar 2015, 11:48am by Matt Waldman

Futures: Rookie Rankings

I hate rookie rankings. You love rookie rankings. It’s a beautiful relationship.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 31 Mar 2015, 12:12am by frozengames

24 Mar 2015, 03:42pm by Guest

Are Teams Faking Injuries? Part I

Guest columnist Jared Cohen explores whether teams are faking injuries to slow down high-tempo offenses like the Eagles.

» More...

23 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 3:51pm by Led

23 Mar 2015, 10:28am by Scott Kacsmar

Go For Nine? For Who? For What?

The Colts have proposed a nine-point touchdown that includes a bonus 50-yard field goal after a two-point conversion. We look at the potential impact this could have on the game.

» More...

59 comments, Last at 27 Mar 2015, 6:02pm by Moridin

20 Mar 2015, 02:21pm by Andrew Healy

Free-Agency Cost-Benefit Analysis

Did the Dolphins pay too much for Ndamukong Suh? And what free agency trick have the Patriots mastered that gives them a leg up on the rest of the league?

» More...

97 comments, Last at 30 Mar 2015, 8:22pm by Jerry

18 Mar 2015, 11:21am by Matt Waldman

Futures: Deep Diving for Small-School Sleepers

James O'Shaughnessy, Darius Davis, Dezmin Lewis, and Zach Zenner are small-time names with potential for big-time games.

» More...

4 comments, Last at 25 Mar 2015, 12:32pm by rich006

16 Mar 2015, 02:43pm by Scott Kacsmar

Failed Completions 2014

One 2014 team had the highest rate of failed completions on offense and defense. Another ranked 16th on both sides of the ball. Which one won the Super Bowl?

» More...

33 comments, Last at 19 Mar 2015, 9:43pm by tuluse

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