Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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Futures: My Expansion Franchise

You've just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build your personnel department. How would you do it? Matt Waldman takes on the exercise.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Historical DVOA Estimates

Estimating the DVOA of years we don't have play-by-play data for reveals some surprising conclusions. Is it possible the 1985 Bears are not even among the top three teams of all-time?

140 comments, Last Comment at 02 Apr 2014, 3:52pm by justanothersteve

Feb 06, 2014 01:44pm by Guest || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth Wraps Up the Eagles

Word of Muth wraps up its coverage of the Philadelphia Eagles offensive line. How did Lane Johnson develop over the course of the season?

2 comments, Last Comment at 24 Jan 2014, 6:40pm by gmoney_714

Jan 24, 2014 12:20pm by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLVIII Quick Reads

Seattle won in all three phases with the best single-game DVOA of 2013, but DYAR numbers don't do anything to shed more light on the MVP debate in Super Bowl XLVIII.

135 comments, Last Comment at 09 Feb 2014, 7:54pm by LionInAZ

Feb 03, 2014 02:33pm GMT by Vince Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Russell Wilson, Again

Seattle's star quarterback has seen a decline in his play since Week 14. What is different, and how can he overcome it?

22 comments, Last Comment at 02 Apr 2014, 6:59pm by Johnmic

Jan 30, 2014 10:58am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLVIII

We thought that the best defense of the year would cancel out the best offense of the year. Instead, the best defense of the year delivered a thorough, 60-minute asskicking to the best offense of the year.

231 comments, Last Comment at 09 Feb 2014, 6:15pm by LionInAZ

Feb 03, 2014 01:04am GMT by Rivers McCown || read all Audibles articles

Final 2013 FEI Ratings

How did FEI consider the worth of various events in the championship game? Well, one kickoff return can really swing a season's worth of data.

10 comments, Last Comment at 09 Jan 2014, 6:20pm by cfn_ms

Jan 08, 2014 12:49pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: True Seminoles Come Through

Florida State didn't need "momentum" to claim the national championship, only to be itself. Matt Hinton reviews the dramatic title game and the rest of college football's bowl season, including the season's final top 25 and Lowsman Trophy Watch.

7 comments, Last Comment at 26 Jan 2014, 7:13pm by www.louisoslo.com/Epi-Nomade-L-r-Veske

Jan 08, 2014 03:51pm by Matt Hinton || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA Championship Edition: View to a Kill?

Make a checklist of what a championship team looks like, and Florida State can check every box. Auburn? Not even close. But can FSU overcome the Tigers' prolific ground game, and seven years of SEC dominance on college football's biggest stage?

7 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2014, 7:30pm by Will Allen

Jan 06, 2014 02:33pm by Matt Hinton || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: 2013 Projections vs. Reality

With the college football season in the rearview mirror, Bill Connelly compares FO's 2013 F/+ projections to the end-of-year numbers.

1 comment, Last Comment at 10 Jan 2014, 10:23am by ClemsonMatt

Jan 09, 2014 11:22am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: 49ers Over Cardinals

San Francisco held off Arizona to claim the No. 5 seed by jumping on the Cardinals defense early and taking advantage of poor Arizona special teams.

5 comments, Last Comment at 25 Jan 2014, 6:31am by louis vuitton solbriller

Dec 31, 2013 12:03pm GMT by Mike Ridley || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: March 2014

In this month's best quotes, Steve Smith wants you to know that there will be blood and guts.

3 comments, Last Comment at 18 Apr 2014, 10:56am by MC2

Apr 07, 2014 11:09am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble: The Incredible Lightness of Our Wallets

Mike and Tom asses the wreckage of this year's prop bet experiment, lighten the mood with commercial highlights, and wonder what John Fox has to say for himself.

26 comments, Last Comment at 07 Feb 2014, 7:25pm by tuluse

Feb 05, 2014 04:25pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: My Expansion Franchise

You've just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build your personnel department. How would you do it? Matt Waldman takes on the exercise.

6 comments, Last Comment at 10:22pm by Jimmy Oz

Apr 23, 2014 11:21am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

2013 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA40.0% 1SEA43.7%
2DEN32.7% 2DEN27.0%
3CAR24.6% 3PHI25.6%
4NO19.3% 4CAR24.7%
5NE18.9% 5NE24.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2013 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN33.5% 1DEN26.7%
2SD23.1% 2NE26.2%
3PHI22.9% 3PHI25.4%
4NE16.4% 4SD23.7%
5NO16.0% 5NO17.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2013 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-25.9% 1SEA-30.0%
2ARI-16.4% 2ARI-18.5%
3CAR-15.7% 3CAR-18.0%
4BUF-13.8% 4NYG-16.7%
5CIN-12.6% 5BUF-16.3%
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2013 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1KC7.8% 1KC9.2%
2NE6.7% 2BAL8.8%
3BAL6.3% 3STL8.7%
4STL6.3% 4NE7.5%
5SEA4.7% 5SF6.7%
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QUARTERBACKS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN2,475 1P.ManningDEN43.2%
2P.RiversSD1,799 2N.FolesPHI35.6%
3D.BreesNO1,701 3P.RiversSD34.8%
4M.RyanATL1,124 4J.McCownCHI32.1%
5N.FolesPHI1,011 5D.BreesNO26.9%
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RUNNING BACKS 2013

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1L.McCoyPHI341 1D.MurrayDAL24.0% 1D.WoodheadSD282
2D.MurrayDAL295 2D.BrownIND19.2% 2J.BellDET196
3J.CharlesKC247 3L.McCoyPHI18.1% 3K.MorenoDEN192
4M.ForteCHI193 4A.EllingtonARI17.5% 4D.SprolesNO174
5M.LynchSEA185 5R.JenningsOAK15.8% 5G.BernardCIN169
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1D.ThomasDEN430 1K.StillsNO40.1%
2J.NelsonGB402 2D.BaldwinSEA33.3%
3A.BoldinSF386 3M.JonesCIN32.4%
4E.DeckerDEN381 4E.RoyalSD31.6%
5A.BrownPIT361 5K.AllenSD28.2%
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TIGHT ENDS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1J.GrahamNO223 1L.GreenSD45.3%
2J.ThomasDEN214 2J.CumberlandNYJ38.0%
3V.DavisSF199 3V.DavisSF29.3%
4T.GonzalezATL135 4J.ThomasDEN27.0%
5J.WittenDAL134 5J.FinleyGB25.8%
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Most Recent Articles

23 Apr 2014, 11:21am by Matt Waldman

Futures: My Expansion Franchise

You've just been awarded an NFL expansion team and must build your personnel department. How would you do it? Matt Waldman takes on the exercise.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 10:22pm by Jimmy Oz

21 Apr 2014, 12:00pm by Rivers McCown

Factors: Andre Johnson

One of the NFL's best receivers notched a -2.3% DVOA last year. Does a target-by-target breakdown show he was better than that?

» More...

3 comments, Last at 22 Apr 2014, 1:31pm by Mr Shush

18 Apr 2014, 04:01pm by Scott Kacsmar

Impact of the NFL's Kickoff Rule Change

After three NFL seasons of kicking off from the 35-yard line, what has been the impact on touchbacks, returns, field position, scoring and injuries? Also, is this rule responsible for a record number of big comebacks?

» More...

7 comments, Last at 10:59pm by South American

16 Apr 2014, 12:21pm by Matt Waldman

Futures: Alabama MLB C.J. Mosley

Want to see what good middle linebacker play looks like? Watch this Alabama prospect work.

» More...

0 comments

15 Apr 2014, 12:08pm by Rivers McCown

Factors: Cecil Shorts

Dr. Backshoulder's low catch rate: an aberration, or a long-term problem?

» More...

3 comments, Last at 17 Apr 2014, 12:47pm by Andrew Potter

11 Apr 2014, 11:24am by Rivers McCown

Review: Front Office Football Seven

How does the latest version of Front Office Football stack up with other giants of the sports simulation industry like Football Manager and OOTP?

» More...

6 comments, Last at 16 Apr 2014, 8:39pm by pablohoney

09 Apr 2014, 02:04pm by Matt Waldman

Futures: Pittsburgh DT Aaron Donald

Matt Waldman isn't a betting man, but if he were, Aaron Donald would be one of two players in this deep draft class that he'd have no reservations betting on as a future star.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 12 Apr 2014, 3:49pm by Guest789

07 Apr 2014, 07:01pm by Tom Gower

2008 NFL Draft: Six Years Later

Ray Rice, Jamaal Charles, or Chris Johnson? Welcome to the last NFL draft where running back was a position of emphasis.

» More...

94 comments, Last at 15 Apr 2014, 10:57pm by ihavechappedlips

07 Apr 2014, 11:09am by Rory Hickey

The Month In Quotes: March 2014

In this month's best quotes, Steve Smith wants you to know that there will be blood and guts.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 18 Apr 2014, 10:56am by MC2

04 Apr 2014, 01:33pm by Scott Kacsmar

The NFL's Four-Minute Offense Is the Prevent Offense

Does the NFL have a four-minute offense that goes beyond "run, run, run, punt, hope you stop them"? Sadly, it doesn't look that way. Meet the NFL's version of the prevent offense.

» More...

40 comments, Last at 09 Apr 2014, 10:46pm by Karl Cuba

03 Apr 2014, 03:55pm by Rivers McCown

Factors: Kendall Wright

Wright finished the season 47th in DYAR and 59th in DVOA. So, why does he actually look much better than his statistics come out when you watch him? In two words: quarterback play.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 04 Apr 2014, 6:29pm by LionInAZ

02 Apr 2014, 01:32am by Matt Waldman

Futures: Washington RB Bishop Sankey

If blocking schemes were types of questions on a test, Matt Waldman explains why Bishop Sankey would be much better at true/false than multiple choice.

» More...

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