Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008



Futures: First-Round Time Capsule Mock

This week’s Futures is devoted to what Matt Waldman thinks the first round should look like based on his perspective of the game.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Futures: First-Round Time Capsule Mock

This week’s Futures is devoted to what Matt Waldman thinks the first round should look like based on his perspective of the game.


Apr 27, 2015 11:35am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Week 20 DVOA Ratings

After the Patriots have one of the top five single-game performances of the season, our weighted DVOA ratings score Super Bowl XLIX as perhaps the biggest toss-up in SB history.

79 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:15pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 19, 2015 06:28pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Ravens Wrap-Up

Ben Muth puts Baltimore's 2014 season to bed, and says their offensive line should be a solid building block for 2015.

12 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:17pm by EdwardBPhelps

Jan 16, 2015 09:13am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLIX Quick Reads

By FO's advanced numbers, the MVP of Super Bowl XLIX was an easy choice -- even though the losing team actually ended up with a higher DVOA rating.

58 comments, Last Comment at 04 Feb 2015, 7:26pm by herewegobrowniesherewego

Feb 02, 2015 10:44am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Richard Sherman

The Seahawks' defensive back will tell you he's the best corner in the game. Is he right?

16 comments, Last Comment at 31 Mar 2015, 7:37pm by tuluse

Mar 30, 2015 12:16pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLIX

The closest matchup in Super Bowl history ends with a play call nobody understands... and a fourth title for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady.

354 comments, Last Comment at 16 Mar 2015, 6:18pm by EdwardBPhelps

Feb 02, 2015 01:49am GMT by Andrew Potter || read all Audibles articles

Final 2014 FEI Ratings

Yes, Oregon is still ranked ahead of Ohio State in the FEI ratings. Why do you ask?

6 comments, Last Comment at 21 Jan 2015, 11:18am by Kyndynos

Jan 14, 2015 01:16pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Ohio State Runs Over Oregon

The Buckeyes overcame four turnovers by using incredible rushing efficiency, timely explosive plays, and critical defensive stops on third down and in the red zone to claim the first College Football Playoff Championship.

3 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 4:32am by rfh1001

Jan 13, 2015 01:20pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: National Championship Preview

The very first Playoff National Championship is here, and the two most deserving teams -- the Buckeyes and Ducks -- face off in a game that should be extremely close according to the advanced statistics.

19 comments, Last Comment at 14 Jan 2015, 6:13pm by Will Allen

Jan 11, 2015 07:04pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: What F/+ Tells Us About 2014

With only one game remaining in the FBS season, Bill Connelly takes a look at what the current F/+ ratings can tell us about the 2014 season. For starters: the SEC is still the king.

9 comments, Last Comment at 12 Jan 2015, 11:01am by Mikey Benny

Jan 07, 2015 10:28am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Ravens Over Steelers

Why does John Harbaugh's excellent coaching record go overlooked? And how has Joe Flacco fared against excellent pass defenses in his career?

10 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2015, 7:20pm by jonnyblazin

Jan 06, 2015 01:59pm GMT by Andrew Healy || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: March 2015

This edition is heavy on the has-beens -- or, in Jared Lorenzen's case, heavy on the heavy has-beens. Other former stars in this Month in Quotes include Deion Sanders and Darren McFadden. (Wait, Darren McFadden is still playing?)

31 comments, Last Comment at 09 Apr 2015, 9:18pm by MC2

Apr 06, 2015 01:21pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Rare Positives

Mike and Tom recap the Super Bowl in the only way that matters: prop bets and commercials.

9 comments, Last Comment at 17 Apr 2015, 8:21am by susanfernando

Feb 05, 2015 11:11am by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Innovative Statistics


Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA31.9% 1SEA33.1%
2DEN29.5% 2NE31.4%
3GB23.3% 3GB24.1%
4NE22.1% 4DEN23.9%
5BAL21.9% 5BAL22.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


Full SeasonWeighted
1GB24.7% 1GB26.8%
2PIT22.5% 2PIT22.0%
3DEN20.0% 3NE19.3%
4DAL16.8% 4DAL19.1%
5SEA16.8% 5SEA15.2%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-16.8% 1SEA-19.8%
2BUF-15.5% 2BUF-19.0%
3DET-13.9% 3DEN-13.3%
4DEN-13.2% 4HOU-12.7%
5SF-10.1% 5SF-11.3%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


Full SeasonWeighted
1PHI8.3% 1BAL10.4%
2BAL8.0% 2KC9.4%
3KC6.7% 3PHI8.2%
4BUF6.2% 4STL6.7%
5NE5.7% 5NE6.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1B.RoethlisbergerPIT1,572 1A.RodgersGB32.2%
2A.RodgersGB1,564 2D.AndersonCAR27.8%
3P.ManningDEN1,412 3T.RomoDAL27.6%
4D.BreesNO1,225 4B.RoethlisbergerPIT26.8%
5T.RomoDAL1,187 5P.ManningDEN23.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL382 1M.LynchSEA23.1% 1L.BellPIT316
2M.LynchSEA359 2J.CharlesKC19.9% 2A.BradshawIND152
3J.CharlesKC249 3L.MillerMIA17.8% 3M.ForteCHI127
4L.MillerMIA246 4C.J.AndersonDEN17.5% 4E.LacyGB112
5L.BellPIT205 5D.MurrayDAL14.8% 5P.ThomasNO111
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1A.BrownPIT554 1R.CobbGB35.7%
2J.NelsonGB482 2T.WilliamsDAL30.6%
3E.SandersDEN481 3K.StillsNO30.3%
4R.CobbGB479 4E.SandersDEN29.6%
5D.BryantDAL430 5D.BryantDAL27.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE237 1T.WrightNE30.9%
2A.GatesSD204 2J.ThomasDEN24.7%
3G.OlsenCAR178 3N.PaulWAS24.4%
4T.KelceKC174 4A.GatesSD24.1%
5J.WittenDAL146 5T.KelceKC23.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

Most Recent Articles

27 Apr 2015, 11:35am by Matt Waldman

Futures: First-Round Time Capsule Mock

This week’s Futures is devoted to what Matt Waldman thinks the first round should look like based on his perspective of the game.

» More...


24 Apr 2015, 04:57pm by Andrew Healy

Draft Trade Value, 1997-2014

Which team has consistently been the biggest loser when it comes to draft-pick trades? Exactly the team you'd expect.

» More...

21 comments, Last at 12:01pm by ChrisS

24 Apr 2015, 11:48am by Guest

The Saints, the Draft, and the Winner's Curse

As guest columnist Chris Bouton explains, the New Orleans Saints have spent years trading up in the draft for players like Mark Ingram -- which is why their current roster is such a mess.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 25 Apr 2015, 12:48pm by nath

22 Apr 2015, 12:27pm by Scott Kacsmar

Snap-Weighted Age: 2014 NFL Rosters

For the first time in seven years, the Steelers weren't the oldest defense. We look at how another AFC powerhouse aged, plus the cap hell of the Saints. Also: is age just a number in the NFL?

» More...

26 comments, Last at 24 Apr 2015, 5:43pm by tuluse

21 Apr 2015, 08:42pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Teams Helped, Hurt by 2015 Schedule

We look at our early DVOA projections for 2015 to see which teams are impacted most by the schedule. Who decided the Jets only needed to play six true road games in 2015?

» More...

2 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 2:32pm by RickD

20 Apr 2015, 11:56am by Andrew Healy

QBASE 2015: ESPN Insider Version

Andrew Healy has developed a new edition of Football Outsiders' QB projection system, now called QBASE. The new system looks at overall college performance, not just completion rate, adjusted for opponents and for the strength of your teammates. This ESPN Insider piece gives our projections for 2014, which are surprisingly high on Brett Hundley and low on Jameis Winston. (They are also high on Marcus Mariota, which may not be a surprise.) Another article here on FO next week will detail the differences between QBASE and the old LCF, and look at the new system's historic performance.

» More...

9 comments, Last at 23 Apr 2015, 5:47pm by Grendel13G

17 Apr 2015, 06:29am by Vincent Verhei

2014 Adjusted Interceptions

Drew Stanton's 2014 season: a winning PowerBall ticket published on a four-leaf clover sitting atop a mound of horseshoes and rabbit's feet.

» More...

24 comments, Last at 21 Apr 2015, 12:45am by tuluse

16 Apr 2015, 02:49pm by Scott Kacsmar

Zach Mettenberger: A Poor Team's Quarterback

The greatest trick the Titans ever pulled was convincing the world Zach Mettenberger was a "poor team's Tom Brady" and better than Jameis Winston. At least we hope it's a trick.

» More...

65 comments, Last at 22 Apr 2015, 11:40pm by chemical burn

15 Apr 2015, 12:06pm by Matt Waldman

Futures: Washington DT Danny Shelton

Player comparisons often have more poetry than math, but there's not enough of either for the common comparison of Shelton to Haloti Ngata and Dontari Poe.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 17 Apr 2015, 2:00pm by tuluse

13 Apr 2015, 01:53pm by Tom Gower

2009 NFL Draft: Six Years Later

Given the benefit of hindsight, it's clear the Detroit Lions made the right choice when they drafted Matt Stafford first overall. How has the rest of the 2009 class fared?

» More...

92 comments, Last at 19 Apr 2015, 1:12pm by chemical burn

09 Apr 2015, 11:35am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN Insider NFL Front Office

Following in the footsteps of ESPN's NBA coverage, ESPN Insider has put together a group of writers called the ESPN Insider NFL Front Office that mocks the conversations that would take place in a real front office. Mark Dominik serves as general manager, Herm Edwards as head coach, and Louis Riddick as director of pro personnel. Mel Kiper and Todd McShay take turns serving as director of college scouting, and yours truly holds the role of analytics department. This week we've been discussing what we would do with the top five picks in the draft were we running those five teams.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 14 Apr 2015, 1:13pm by speedegg

09 Apr 2015, 11:33am by Guest

SackSEER 2015

Our projection formula for college edge rushers sees three clear top-tier prospects in this year's draft, followed by a very steep drop-off.

» More...

19 comments, Last at 14 Apr 2015, 6:18pm by Vincent Verhei

Click here for full article archives