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Futures: Six Memorable Lessons About Talent Evaluation

This week’s Futures makes a visit to the past. Matt Waldman lists the 10 most influential prospects in his development as a talent evaluator.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 11 DVOA Ratings

Denver is still No. 1, but as the weakest first-place team in DVOA history. Tampa Bay is almost the strongest last-place team in DVOA history. And Arizona is still inexplicably No. 15 at 9-1. Ball of confusion: that's what DVOA is today. Hey hey.

178 comments, Last Comment at 21 Nov 2014, 4:38pm by KB

Nov 18, 2014 05:03pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Bears Bounce Back

Ben Muth breaks down Chicago's win over Minnesota, and defends the quarterback sweep on fourth-and-goal.

6 comments, Last Comment at 4:52am by OSS117

Nov 20, 2014 11:50am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 11 Quick Reads

Just how big was Jonas Gray's big day? And why is a higher rate of yards per carry not always best?

56 comments, Last Comment at 20 Nov 2014, 8:22am by JoeyHarringtonsPiano

Nov 17, 2014 07:55pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Rams Pass Rush

The Rams' pass rush got off to a slow start this year, but Cian Fahey says they have talent on hand to dominate for the next several years.

2 comments, Last Comment at 20 Nov 2014, 5:03pm by bravehoptoad

Nov 20, 2014 08:21am by Vincent Verhei || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 11

Coming off their biggest win of the year, the Arizona Cardinals have the best record in the league. How are they getting it done?

161 comments, Last Comment at 20 Nov 2014, 8:26am by JoeyHarringtonsPiano

Nov 17, 2014 06:18am GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 12: Mean Field Position

What does Alabama's victory over Mississippi State tell us about the best ways to measure field position?

0 comments

Nov 19, 2014 10:43pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Only One Remains

Mississippi State fell from the undefeated ranks, leaving Florida State as the only undefeated team. And Melvin Gordon gained some yards. Lots and lots and lots of yards.

5 comments, Last Comment at 18 Nov 2014, 10:10am by Tomlin_Is_Infallible

Nov 17, 2014 01:54pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: Bowl Position

The games this week are much less hyped than last week's, but they still feature closely-ranked teams vying for conference pecking order in bowl season.

0 comments

Nov 20, 2014 10:28pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

VN: Hits, Misses, and the Year Zero Effect

Bill Connelly looks at the college offenses, defenses, and overall teams that have improved (Air Force!) or regressed (North Texas!) the most in 2014. Year Zero is a real thing (sometimes).

1 comment, Last Comment at 21 Nov 2014, 4:54pm by Kal

Nov 21, 2014 12:30pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Rams Over Broncos

Sometimes a big upset in the NFL is a sign teams are better or worse than we had previously believed. And sometimes, they're just flukes.

12 comments, Last Comment at 5:48am by spujr

Nov 18, 2014 12:43pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: November 21, 2014

This week's theme: profanity. Please get your parents' permission before reading this column.

12 comments, Last Comment at 21 Nov 2014, 6:27pm by BroncFan07

Nov 21, 2014 05:38am by Vincent Verhei || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: Second-Half Loser League Names

Mike and Tom studiously avoid a Steelers-Titans game that left them both unhappy, and instead give thanks for the best Loser League team names of the second half.

5 comments, Last Comment at 20 Nov 2014, 2:19pm by Alec B

Nov 19, 2014 02:45pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Six Memorable Lessons About Talent Evaluation

This week’s Futures makes a visit to the past. Matt Waldman lists the 10 most influential prospects in his development as a talent evaluator.

0 comments

Nov 22, 2014 08:01am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
1ARI97.1% 1DEN14.0% 1OAK74.5%
2NE90.5% 2NE13.5% 2JAC14.3%
3IND88.2% 3GB12.4% 3NYJ4.2%
4KC87.6% 4ARI10.7% 4TB4.0%
5DEN85.6% 5KC9.6% 5TEN2.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN31.5% 1DEN30.4%
2GB23.9% 2GB24.9%
3BAL22.0% 3BAL23.3%
4MIA20.0% 4MIA22.1%
5NE19.6% 5NE20.6%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1GB22.5% 1GB23.6%
2DEN18.5% 2DEN17.6%
3PIT16.9% 3PIT16.7%
4NE13.8% 4NE15.4%
5NO13.6% 5KC14.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DET-22.3% 1DET-22.1%
2DEN-17.2% 2DEN-17.4%
3MIA-16.0% 3SF-17.3%
4SF-15.5% 4MIA-16.2%
5BUF-13.2% 5BUF-14.4%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1BAL8.4% 1BAL9.4%
2PHI7.4% 2PHI7.2%
3IND5.8% 3NE6.2%
4NE5.8% 4IND6.0%
5BUF5.5% 5KC5.4%
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QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN1,004 1A.RodgersGB33.0%
2A.RodgersGB973 2P.ManningDEN25.9%
3A.LuckIND965 3T.BradyNE22.5%
4T.BradyNE862 4P.RiversSD22.4%
5B.RoethlisbergerPIT860 5D.StantonARI21.1%
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RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1D.MurrayDAL276 1J.CharlesKC28.3% 1M.ForteCHI191
2M.LynchSEA269 2M.LynchSEA28.2% 2A.BradshawIND166
3J.CharlesKC212 3D.MurrayDAL19.2% 3L.BellPIT164
4L.MillerMIA136 4J.McKinnonMIN17.8% 4E.LacyGB89
5L.BellPIT129 5L.MillerMIA15.8% 5B.CunninghamSTL89
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.CobbGB345 1M.FloydSD47.9%
2A.BrownPIT334 2R.CobbGB47.4%
3J.NelsonGB329 3M.EvansTB31.8%
4E.SandersDEN319 4J.NelsonGB30.9%
5D.ThomasDEN268 5E.SandersDEN30.2%
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TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1R.GronkowskiNE190 1D.AllenIND34.3%
2J.GrahamNO175 2A.GatesSD28.3%
3J.ThomasDEN137 3J.ThomasDEN28.3%
4A.GatesSD136 4R.GronkowskiNE27.2%
5G.OlsenCAR122 5J.GrahamNO25.7%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 11

Most Recent Articles

22 Nov 2014, 11:01am by Matt Waldman

Futures: Six Memorable Lessons About Talent Evaluation

This week’s Futures makes a visit to the past. Matt Waldman lists the 10 most influential prospects in his development as a talent evaluator.

» More...

0 comments

21 Nov 2014, 03:30pm by Bill Connelly

VN: Hits, Misses, and the Year Zero Effect

Bill Connelly looks at the college offenses, defenses, and overall teams that have improved (Air Force!) or regressed (North Texas!) the most in 2014. Year Zero is a real thing (sometimes).

» More...

1 comment, Last at 21 Nov 2014, 7:54pm by Kal

21 Nov 2014, 02:19pm by J.J. Cooper

Under Pressure: Carolina's Sorry Season

Only one team has given up more sacks than Carolina. Who's responsible? Pretty much everyone.

» More...

0 comments

21 Nov 2014, 12:58pm by Scott Kacsmar

Clutch Encounters: Chiefs at Raiders

Oakland's first GWD in over two years stunned the Chiefs on Thursday night. We look at the keys to the upset and the craziest premature celebration in NFL history.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 11:17am by billprudden

21 Nov 2014, 08:38am by Vincent Verhei

The Week In Quotes: November 21, 2014

This week's theme: profanity. Please get your parents' permission before reading this column.

» More...

12 comments, Last at 21 Nov 2014, 9:27pm by BroncFan07

20 Nov 2014, 10:28pm by Chad Peltier

SDA: Bowl Position

The games this week are much less hyped than last week's, but they still feature closely-ranked teams vying for conference pecking order in bowl season.

» More...

0 comments

20 Nov 2014, 02:50pm by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: Bears Bounce Back

Ben Muth breaks down Chicago's win over Minnesota, and defends the quarterback sweep on fourth-and-goal.

» More...

6 comments, Last at 7:52am by OSS117

20 Nov 2014, 12:40pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Brees Isn't Problem for Saints

If the Saints are only 4-6, then Drew Brees must be struggling, right? Nope.

» More...

0 comments

20 Nov 2014, 11:21am by Vincent Verhei

Film Room: Rams Pass Rush

The Rams' pass rush got off to a slow start this year, but Cian Fahey says they have talent on hand to dominate for the next several years.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 20 Nov 2014, 8:03pm by bravehoptoad

20 Nov 2014, 11:19am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Week 12 Fantasy Matchups

Jonas Gray is the latest fantasy flavor of the week, but a star was not born on Sunday night. A bad defense was exposed by a smart coach taking advantage of his bye week. Some of our favorite Week 12 fantasy matchups for salary-cap leagues include Drew Brees, Jay Cutler, Justin Forsett and Larry Donnell. You should also consider taking a chance on Josh Gordon in his return against the 32nd-ranked Atlanta pass defense.

» More...

0 comments

19 Nov 2014, 10:43pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI Week 12: Mean Field Position

What does Alabama's victory over Mississippi State tell us about the best ways to measure field position?

» More...

0 comments

19 Nov 2014, 02:45pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble for the Ball: Second-Half Loser League Names

Mike and Tom studiously avoid a Steelers-Titans game that left them both unhappy, and instead give thanks for the best Loser League team names of the second half.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 20 Nov 2014, 2:19pm by Alec B

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