Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

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FEI Primer: Elite Characteristics

There will be four teams in the inaugural College Football Playoff at the end of the season. What common characteristics will distinguish these teams above all others?

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Let Me Check My Schedule

Kenneth Arthur looks at how DVOA and strength of schedule play with each other, especially in regards to Super Bowl possibilities.

23 comments, Last Comment at 15 Aug 2014, 6:21pm by RickD

Jul 03, 2014 01:32pm by Guest || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Greg Robinson

Word of Muth projects Greg Robinson to the NFL.

27 comments, Last Comment at 02 Jul 2014, 12:37pm by Jamey

May 30, 2014 09:14am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLVIII Quick Reads

Seattle won in all three phases with the best single-game DVOA of 2013, but DYAR numbers don't do anything to shed more light on the MVP debate in Super Bowl XLVIII.

136 comments, Last Comment at 20 Jun 2014, 10:41pm by Shady

Feb 03, 2014 02:33pm GMT by Vince Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Russell Wilson, Again

Seattle's star quarterback has seen a decline in his play since Week 14. What is different, and how can he overcome it?

21 comments, Last Comment at 30 Jan 2014, 10:10pm by jacobk

Jan 30, 2014 10:58am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLVIII

We thought that the best defense of the year would cancel out the best offense of the year. Instead, the best defense of the year delivered a thorough, 60-minute asskicking to the best offense of the year.

231 comments, Last Comment at 09 Feb 2014, 6:15pm by LionInAZ

Feb 03, 2014 01:04am GMT by Rivers McCown || read all Audibles articles

FEI Primer: Elite Characteristics

There will be four teams in the inaugural College Football Playoff at the end of the season. What common characteristics will distinguish these teams above all others?

0 comments

Aug 20, 2014 02:23pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: True Seminoles Come Through

Florida State didn't need "momentum" to claim the national championship, only to be itself. Matt Hinton reviews the dramatic title game and the rest of college football's bowl season, including the season's final top 25 and Lowsman Trophy Watch.

7 comments, Last Comment at 26 Jan 2014, 7:13pm by www.louisoslo.com/Epi-Nomade-L-r-Veske

Jan 08, 2014 03:51pm by Matt Hinton || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA Championship Edition: View to a Kill?

Make a checklist of what a championship team looks like, and Florida State can check every box. Auburn? Not even close. But can FSU overcome the Tigers' prolific ground game, and seven years of SEC dominance on college football's biggest stage?

7 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2014, 7:30pm by Will Allen

Jan 06, 2014 02:33pm by Matt Hinton || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: 2013 Projections vs. Reality

With the college football season in the rearview mirror, Bill Connelly compares FO's 2013 F/+ projections to the end-of-year numbers.

1 comment, Last Comment at 10 Jan 2014, 10:23am by ClemsonMatt

Jan 09, 2014 11:22am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: 49ers Over Cardinals

San Francisco held off Arizona to claim the No. 5 seed by jumping on the Cardinals defense early and taking advantage of poor Arizona special teams.

5 comments, Last Comment at 25 Jan 2014, 6:31am by louis vuitton solbriller

Dec 31, 2013 12:03pm GMT by Mike Ridley || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week in Quotes: August 15, 2014

This week: The Raiders get sloppy, Jon Gruden gets philosophical, and Tom Brady gets very, very, very close with his centers.

16 comments, Last Comment at 18 Aug 2014, 3:45pm by John Courage

Aug 15, 2014 11:00am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble Over/Unders: The Easts

Mike and Tom kick off this year's group of Over/Unders with a little admiration for the Patriots, a little fear of the Eagles, and like a million words about the Bills for some reason.

47 comments, Last Comment at 19 Aug 2014, 2:28pm by ghostly

Aug 13, 2014 06:03pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Tom Savage

Savage has the physical skills and flashes of on-field play that make him look like a first-rounder. Is his rumored late rise up draft boards a product of hyperbolic thinking?

5 comments, Last Comment at 11 May 2014, 3:30am by Mr Shush

Apr 30, 2014 01:15pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

2013 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA40.0% 1SEA43.7%
2DEN32.7% 2DEN27.0%
3CAR24.6% 3PHI25.6%
4NO19.3% 4CAR24.7%
5NE18.9% 5NE24.4%
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2013 OFFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN33.5% 1DEN26.7%
2SD23.1% 2NE26.2%
3PHI22.9% 3PHI25.4%
4NE16.4% 4SD23.7%
5NO16.0% 5NO17.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17

2013 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-25.9% 1SEA-30.0%
2ARI-16.4% 2ARI-18.5%
3CAR-15.7% 3CAR-18.0%
4BUF-13.8% 4NYG-16.7%
5CIN-12.6% 5BUF-16.3%
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2013 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonWeighted
1KC7.8% 1KC9.2%
2NE6.7% 2BAL8.8%
3BAL6.3% 3STL8.7%
4STL6.3% 4NE7.5%
5SEA4.7% 5SF6.7%
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QUARTERBACKS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN2,475 1P.ManningDEN43.2%
2P.RiversSD1,799 2N.FolesPHI35.6%
3D.BreesNO1,701 3P.RiversSD34.8%
4M.RyanATL1,124 4J.McCownCHI32.1%
5N.FolesPHI1,011 5D.BreesNO26.9%
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RUNNING BACKS 2013

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1L.McCoyPHI341 1D.MurrayDAL24.0% 1D.WoodheadSD282
2D.MurrayDAL295 2D.BrownIND19.2% 2J.BellDET196
3J.CharlesKC247 3L.McCoyPHI18.1% 3K.MorenoDEN192
4M.ForteCHI193 4A.EllingtonARI17.5% 4D.SprolesNO174
5M.LynchSEA185 5R.JenningsOAK15.8% 5G.BernardCIN169
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1D.ThomasDEN430 1K.StillsNO40.1%
2J.NelsonGB402 2D.BaldwinSEA33.3%
3A.BoldinSF386 3M.JonesCIN32.4%
4E.DeckerDEN381 4E.RoyalSD31.6%
5A.BrownPIT361 5K.AllenSD28.2%
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TIGHT ENDS 2013

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1J.GrahamNO223 1L.GreenSD45.3%
2J.ThomasDEN214 2J.CumberlandNYJ38.0%
3V.DavisSF199 3V.DavisSF29.3%
4T.GonzalezATL135 4J.ThomasDEN27.0%
5J.WittenDAL134 5J.FinleyGB25.8%
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Most Recent Articles

20 Aug 2014, 02:23pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI Primer: Elite Characteristics

There will be four teams in the inaugural College Football Playoff at the end of the season. What common characteristics will distinguish these teams above all others?

» More...

0 comments

19 Aug 2014, 12:56pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Top Impact Rookies 2014

This piece for ESPN Insider looks through our various rookie projection systems not just for guys with strong projections, but for guys who will also have the opportunity to be very important this season.

» More...

3 comments, Last at 12:36pm by rfh1001

18 Aug 2014, 05:41pm by Scott Kacsmar

2013 Play-Action Defense

Are the best defenses against play action the best against regular passes too? How much impact does play action really have in an NFL game, and does it correlate from year to year?

» More...

3 comments, Last at 2:39pm by theslothook

15 Aug 2014, 11:00am by Rory Hickey

The Week in Quotes: August 15, 2014

This week: The Raiders get sloppy, Jon Gruden gets philosophical, and Tom Brady gets very, very, very close with his centers.

» More...

16 comments, Last at 18 Aug 2014, 3:45pm by John Courage

14 Aug 2014, 12:48pm by Scott Kacsmar

2013 Play-Action Offense

The two best play-action offenses were the best passing offenses without play action too. Is that normal? Also: a Flacco surprise, Jason Garrett's allergy, and what the heck happened in Washington?

» More...

20 comments, Last at 16 Aug 2014, 8:32pm by Vince Verhei

13 Aug 2014, 06:03pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower

Scramble Over/Unders: The Easts

Mike and Tom kick off this year's group of Over/Unders with a little admiration for the Patriots, a little fear of the Eagles, and like a million words about the Bills for some reason.

» More...

47 comments, Last at 19 Aug 2014, 2:28pm by ghostly

13 Aug 2014, 01:13pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI Primer: Degree of Difficulty

We don’t know how the playoff selection committee will measure it, or how much of a factor it will be, but strength of schedule has never been more important in college football. Probably.

» More...

0 comments

12 Aug 2014, 01:48pm by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Niners' Playoff Chances are 50-50

Everyone thinks of San Francisco as one of the NFL's most dominant teams, so why does FOA 2014 only give them a 51 percent chance to make the playoffs this year? In an ESPN Insider article, I explain a bit about why projections are so grouped around 8-8, and why the 49ers' defense may not be as good as we think -- at least through the end of October.

» More...

11 comments, Last at 14 Aug 2014, 7:29pm by Karl Cuba

12 Aug 2014, 01:27pm by Scott Kacsmar

2013 Pressure Plays: Defense

Part two of our 2013 pressure study focuses on which defenses fared best with and without pressure last year. Should we expect a lot of variation in 2014?

» More...

36 comments, Last at 14 Aug 2014, 3:37pm by nat

11 Aug 2014, 11:33am by Scott Kacsmar

2013 Pressure Plays: Quarterbacks

Which quarterbacks fared best under pressure last year? And does performance under pressure have any correlation from year to year?

» More...

27 comments, Last at 15 Aug 2014, 11:56pm by LionInAZ

08 Aug 2014, 11:17am by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Cowboys Will Again Miss Playoffs

Scott Kacsmar explains why an aging and hurting Tony Romo combined with a still-poor defense means another year of missing the playoffs in Dallas.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 08 Aug 2014, 1:16pm by Sisyphus

08 Aug 2014, 10:50am by Rory Hickey

The Week in Quotes: August 8, 2014

This week: Doug Marrone needs a tech timeout, Eric Ebron hits the rookie wall early, and Mark Ingram has dreams. Very unlikely dreams.

» More...

7 comments, Last at 10 Aug 2014, 11:23am by justanothersteve

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