Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008



Kurt Warner: The Hall of Fame Case

Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame quarterback? We dissect both sides of the case from multiple angles.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Let Me Check My Schedule

Kenneth Arthur looks at how DVOA and strength of schedule play with each other, especially in regards to Super Bowl possibilities.

22 comments, Last Comment at 23 Jul 2014, 9:25pm by Mr Luan

Jul 03, 2014 01:32pm by Guest || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Greg Robinson

Word of Muth projects Greg Robinson to the NFL.

27 comments, Last Comment at 02 Jul 2014, 12:37pm by Jamey

May 30, 2014 09:14am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Super Bowl XLVIII Quick Reads

Seattle won in all three phases with the best single-game DVOA of 2013, but DYAR numbers don't do anything to shed more light on the MVP debate in Super Bowl XLVIII.

136 comments, Last Comment at 20 Jun 2014, 10:41pm by Shady

Feb 03, 2014 02:33pm GMT by Vince Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Russell Wilson, Again

Seattle's star quarterback has seen a decline in his play since Week 14. What is different, and how can he overcome it?

21 comments, Last Comment at 30 Jan 2014, 10:10pm by jacobk

Jan 30, 2014 10:58am by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Super Bowl XLVIII

We thought that the best defense of the year would cancel out the best offense of the year. Instead, the best defense of the year delivered a thorough, 60-minute asskicking to the best offense of the year.

231 comments, Last Comment at 09 Feb 2014, 6:15pm by LionInAZ

Feb 03, 2014 01:04am GMT by Rivers McCown || read all Audibles articles

Final 2013 FEI Ratings

How did FEI consider the worth of various events in the championship game? Well, one kickoff return can really swing a season's worth of data.

10 comments, Last Comment at 09 Jan 2014, 6:20pm by cfn_ms

Jan 08, 2014 12:49pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: True Seminoles Come Through

Florida State didn't need "momentum" to claim the national championship, only to be itself. Matt Hinton reviews the dramatic title game and the rest of college football's bowl season, including the season's final top 25 and Lowsman Trophy Watch.

7 comments, Last Comment at 26 Jan 2014, 7:13pm by www.louisoslo.com/Epi-Nomade-L-r-Veske

Jan 08, 2014 03:51pm by Matt Hinton || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA Championship Edition: View to a Kill?

Make a checklist of what a championship team looks like, and Florida State can check every box. Auburn? Not even close. But can FSU overcome the Tigers' prolific ground game, and seven years of SEC dominance on college football's biggest stage?

7 comments, Last Comment at 07 Jan 2014, 7:30pm by Will Allen

Jan 06, 2014 02:33pm by Matt Hinton || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: 2013 Projections vs. Reality

With the college football season in the rearview mirror, Bill Connelly compares FO's 2013 F/+ projections to the end-of-year numbers.

1 comment, Last Comment at 10 Jan 2014, 10:23am by ClemsonMatt

Jan 09, 2014 11:22am by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: 49ers Over Cardinals

San Francisco held off Arizona to claim the No. 5 seed by jumping on the Cardinals defense early and taking advantage of poor Arizona special teams.

5 comments, Last Comment at 25 Jan 2014, 6:31am by louis vuitton solbriller

Dec 31, 2013 12:03pm GMT by Mike Ridley || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Month In Quotes: May/June 2014

Let's all talk about Johnny Tebow! All opinions on his off-field life are necessary ASAP.

2 comments, Last Comment at 17 Jul 2014, 5:27pm by MJK

Jul 14, 2014 12:59pm by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble: The Incredible Lightness of Our Wallets

Mike and Tom asses the wreckage of this year's prop bet experiment, lighten the mood with commercial highlights, and wonder what John Fox has to say for himself.

26 comments, Last Comment at 07 Feb 2014, 7:25pm by tuluse

Feb 05, 2014 04:25pm by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Tom Savage

Savage has the physical skills and flashes of on-field play that make him look like a first-rounder. Is his rumored late rise up draft boards a product of hyperbolic thinking?

5 comments, Last Comment at 11 May 2014, 3:30am by Mr Shush

Apr 30, 2014 01:15pm by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics


Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA40.0% 1SEA43.7%
2DEN32.7% 2DEN27.0%
3CAR24.6% 3PHI25.6%
4NO19.3% 4CAR24.7%
5NE18.9% 5NE24.4%
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Full SeasonWeighted
1DEN33.5% 1DEN26.7%
2SD23.1% 2NE26.2%
3PHI22.9% 3PHI25.4%
4NE16.4% 4SD23.7%
5NO16.0% 5NO17.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 17


Full SeasonWeighted
1SEA-25.9% 1SEA-30.0%
2ARI-16.4% 2ARI-18.5%
3CAR-15.7% 3CAR-18.0%
4BUF-13.8% 4NYG-16.7%
5CIN-12.6% 5BUF-16.3%
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Full SeasonWeighted
1KC7.8% 1KC9.2%
2NE6.7% 2BAL8.8%
3BAL6.3% 3STL8.7%
4STL6.3% 4NE7.5%
5SEA4.7% 5SF6.7%
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DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1P.ManningDEN2,475 1P.ManningDEN43.2%
2P.RiversSD1,799 2N.FolesPHI35.6%
3D.BreesNO1,701 3P.RiversSD34.8%
4M.RyanATL1,124 4J.McCownCHI32.1%
5N.FolesPHI1,011 5D.BreesNO26.9%
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Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1L.McCoyPHI341 1D.MurrayDAL24.0% 1D.WoodheadSD282
2D.MurrayDAL295 2D.BrownIND19.2% 2J.BellDET196
3J.CharlesKC247 3L.McCoyPHI18.1% 3K.MorenoDEN192
4M.ForteCHI193 4A.EllingtonARI17.5% 4D.SprolesNO174
5M.LynchSEA185 5R.JenningsOAK15.8% 5G.BernardCIN169
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DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1D.ThomasDEN430 1K.StillsNO40.1%
2J.NelsonGB402 2D.BaldwinSEA33.3%
3A.BoldinSF386 3M.JonesCIN32.4%
4E.DeckerDEN381 4E.RoyalSD31.6%
5A.BrownPIT361 5K.AllenSD28.2%
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DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1J.GrahamNO223 1L.GreenSD45.3%
2J.ThomasDEN214 2J.CumberlandNYJ38.0%
3V.DavisSF199 3V.DavisSF29.3%
4T.GonzalezATL135 4J.ThomasDEN27.0%
5J.WittenDAL134 5J.FinleyGB25.8%
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Most Recent Articles

31 Jul 2014, 11:19am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: NFC West Blocking Cardinals' Path

We simulated the season moving Arizona around to every division to see what happened. The result? Their Super Bowl odds would go up 60 percent in the AFC South. It's also good these days to live in the AFC North and NFC East. The NFC West, not so much.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 3:14pm by willybhu

30 Jul 2014, 09:23pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: College Win Total Best Bets

We compared FEI projections to Vegas lines to find which teams were the best bets to outperform and underperform season win total expectations in 2014.

» More...

1 comment, Last at 12:54pm by Dr. Gamera

30 Jul 2014, 12:34pm by Scott Kacsmar

Kurt Warner: The Hall of Fame Case

Is Kurt Warner a Hall of Fame quarterback? We dissect both sides of the case from multiple angles.

» More...

73 comments, Last at 10:23pm by Raiderjoe

28 Jul 2014, 03:49pm by Aaron Schatz

373 Oakland Championships

Any team can win the Super Bowl in any given year. What would it look like for the league's worst team to somehow win it?

» More...

30 comments, Last at 30 Jul 2014, 3:24pm by theslothook

24 Jul 2014, 02:57pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: Shifting Schedule Strength

Which college football teams downgraded their schedule strength this season, and which ones made an upgrade?

» More...


24 Jul 2014, 01:57pm by Scott Kacsmar

Sidney Rice: What Could Have Been?

Sidney Rice has retired. Is he the most random single-season DYAR leader ever? One-year wonder? Injury prone? We offer a career retrospective for the second-best wide receiver named Rice in NFL history.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 25 Jul 2014, 9:56pm by Pen

23 Jul 2014, 12:48pm by Scott Kacsmar

ESPN: Teams with Most Under-25 Talent

At Insider we ranked all 32 NFL teams based solely on the collective talent of their players under the age of 25. Find out which star player made the birthday cut by less than a week, and which Super Bowl XLVIII participant brings up the rear.

» More...

5 comments, Last at 28 Jul 2014, 10:52pm by LionInAZ

22 Jul 2014, 12:26pm by Scott Kacsmar

Catch Radius: The Bigger, the Better?

Our season finale of catch radius focuses on the growing size of Josh McCown's talented receiving duos, including breakout stud Alshon Jeffery. Also: Anquan Boldin's incredible year.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 24 Jul 2014, 12:39pm by DrP

22 Jul 2014, 10:33am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: FO Top 25 Prospects 2014

Here's another preview of Football Outsiders Almanac 2014 while you anxiously wait for tomorrow night's release. Once again this year, our Top 25 Prospects list is also running on ESPN Insider. This is our list of promising lower-drafted (or undrafted) young players who haven't yet gotten much playing time. This year's top five: Andre Ellington, Travis Kelce, Damontre Moore, Jordan Reed, and Terron Armstead.

» More...


18 Jul 2014, 02:07pm by Scott Kacsmar

Catch Radius: Best of the NFC

Part I of our catch radius season finale spotlights the NFC kings of double coverage (Calvin Johnson), the sideline (Jordy Nelson), the drag route (DeSean Jackson) and the red zone (Dez Bryant).

» More...

4 comments, Last at 23 Jul 2014, 10:52am by Ryan D.

18 Jul 2014, 12:34pm by Vince Verhei

ESPN: Risers and Fallers of the NFC

Today, looking at teams we think have a good chance to get better or worse in the NFC. On the rise: Atlanta, Tampa Bay, and Washington. Possibly declining: Arizona, Carolina, and the surprisingly old San Francisco 49ers.

» More...


17 Jul 2014, 12:50pm by Rivers McCown

ESPN: Risers and Fallers of the AFC

Taking a look on ESPN Insider at which teams we think are on the rise or falling this season in the AFC. Moving up: Buffalo, Houston, and Pittsburgh. Moving down: Kansas City, Miami, and the New York Jets.

» More...

13 comments, Last at 19 Jul 2014, 9:26pm by Rocco

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