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OFI: Letdown Saturday

A week after big upsets of Stanford and Ohio State, the USC and Virginia Tech themselves fell to less-talented opponents. Georgia also fell to South Carolina after pummeling Clemson in the opener.

Recent Features

Football Outsiders Features

Week 1 DVOA Ratings

We always say not to jump to conclusions about a team's true quality after a Week 1 loss. But the meaning of one loss to a team's playoff chances are another issue entirely.

111 comments, Last Comment at 12 Sep 2014, 3:27pm by mehllageman56

Sep 09, 2014 04:20pm by Aaron Schatz || read all DVOA Rankings and Analysis articles

Word of Muth: Ravens' New Scheme

The Ravens lost a nail-biter in Week 1, but Ben Muth found plenty to like about their offensive line's performance and Gary Kubiak's play design.

8 comments, Last Comment at 12 Sep 2014, 5:19pm by atworkforu

Sep 11, 2014 11:31am by Ben Muth || read all Word Of Muth articles

Week 1 Quick Reads

Matt Ryan shines in the season opener, while Josh McCown sinks. But what does that tell us about how those players (and all the others) will fare for the rest of the season?

83 comments, Last Comment at 12 Sep 2014, 12:55am by Silversmith

Sep 08, 2014 06:35pm GMT by Vincent Verhei || read all Quick Reads articles

Film Room: Saints' Defensive Schemes

Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd were supposed to form one of the NFL's best safety duos. So why were things so easy for Atlanta on Sunday?

11 comments, Last Comment at 12 Sep 2014, 6:44pm by RedTUS

Sep 11, 2014 02:23pm by Cian Fahey || read all Film Room articles

Audibles at the Line: Week 2

Topics this week include the Wilson-Rivers shootout in San Diego, the Bears' ugly comeback in San Francisco, and Jake's first-half a-Locker-lypse in Tennessee.

114 comments, Last Comment at 15 Sep 2014, 11:35pm by nuclearbdgr

Sep 15, 2014 10:05am GMT by Luke McKenna || read all Audibles articles

FEI Week 2: Cardinal Sins

How unique was Stanford's inability to finish drives against USC last weekend? And is it a problem that can be fixed?

2 comments, Last Comment at 11 Sep 2014, 1:30pm by cfn_ms

Sep 10, 2014 12:07pm by Brian Fremeau || read all Fremeau Efficiency Ratings Articles

OFI: Letdown Saturday

A week after big upsets of Stanford and Ohio State, the USC and Virginia Tech themselves fell to less-talented opponents. Georgia also fell to South Carolina after pummeling Clemson in the opener.

0 comments

Sep 15, 2014 02:36pm by Chad Peltier || read all One Foot Inbounds articles

SDA: Dawgs Go for South Carolina Sweep

After a dominant second half against Clemson, many in the media are happy to put Georgia into playoff projections. This week's matchup against South Carolina should provide more clarity.

4 comments, Last Comment at 11 Sep 2014, 7:46pm by cfn_ms

Sep 11, 2014 01:09pm by Chad Peltier || read all 7th Day Adventure articles

Varsity Numbers: Follow the Bouncing Ball

We like to think of fumble recoveries as a 50/50 proposition, but how much of an impact does the location of the fumble have on who recovers it? Bill Connelly takes a look.

0 comments

Sep 12, 2014 07:05pm by Bill Connelly || read all Varsity Numbers articles

Any Given Sunday: Dolphins over Patriots

This probably isn't the end for New England, but there are definite signs of concern. As for Miami, where did that offensive line performance come from?

9 comments, Last Comment at 11 Sep 2014, 1:45am by Rivers McCown

Sep 09, 2014 01:29pm GMT by Rivers McCown || read all Any Given Sunday articles

The Week In Quotes: September 12, 2014

Not surprisingly, there's a lot of negativity concerning you-know-who in this TWIQ. But if you make it all the way through we can promise a happy ending.

2 comments, Last Comment at 12 Sep 2014, 2:53pm by armchair journeyman quarterback

Sep 12, 2014 11:03am by Rory Hickey || read all The Week in Quotes articles

Scramble for the Ball: The New Old Hotness

Mike and Tom tinker with the Scramble formula and share the lessons they learned during Jump to Conclusions Week.

12 comments, Last Comment at 14 Sep 2014, 3:32am by Jerry

Sep 10, 2014 11:42am by Mike Kurtz and Tom Gower || read all Scramble articles

Futures: Alabama WR Amari Cooper

Cooper's game has elements of Michael Crabtree and Roddy White. See what he must learn to fit into either one of these starters' development trajectory.

0 comments

Sep 13, 2014 10:22am by Matt Waldman || read all Futures articles

Innovative Statistics

DVOA PLAYOFF ODDS REPORT

Odds to Make Playoffs Odds to Win Super Bowl Odds to Get No. 1 Pick
1DEN87.7% 1DEN19.2% 1OAK18.0%
2SEA80.6% 2SEA12.5% 2KC12.3%
3SF72.7% 3SF8.9% 3STL10.5%
4PHI67.1% 4CIN6.6% 4DAL7.5%
5CIN65.3% 5PHI5.0% 5NYG6.5%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 1

2014 TEAM EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1SEA61.0% 1DEN24.5%
2MIN56.8% 2SEA20.8%
3DET55.3% 3SF14.8%
4TEN54.0% 4NE10.2%
5SF53.7% 5GB10.0%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 1

2014 OFFENSE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1ATL45.5% 1DEN23.7%
2SF44.4% 2GB16.0%
3SEA43.3% 3SD11.3%
4PIT34.8% 4SF9.3%
5DEN30.8% 5NO9.3%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 1

2014 DEFENSIVE EFFICIENCY RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1CAR-43.9% 1SEA-11.6%
2DET-42.6% 2CAR-9.9%
3TEN-40.7% 3NYJ-5.8%
4MIN-33.2% 4SF-4.4%
5NYJ-31.2% 5CIN-3.9%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 1

2014 SPECIAL TEAMS RATINGS

Full SeasonDAVE (2014 + Projection)
1BUF12.9% 1MIN2.2%
2CIN8.2% 2NE2.0%
3KC7.5% 3SEA1.8%
4NO7.2% 4BUF1.6%
5PHI7.1% 5STL1.2%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 1

QUARTERBACKS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1M.RyanATL258 1M.StaffordDET90.3%
2M.StaffordDET186 2M.RyanATL80.6%
3C.KaepernickSF141 3C.KaepernickSF79.6%
4D.BreesNO139 4P.ManningDEN45.7%
5P.ManningDEN136 5M.CasselMIN40.3%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 1

RUNNING BACKS 2014

Rush DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
Rush DVOA Leaders
(Value per Play)
Rec DYAR Leaders
(Total Value)
1K.MorenoMIA51 1J.ForsettBAL70.1% 1M.ForteCHI46
2M.LynchSEA48 2M.LynchSEA47.8% 2L.BellPIT40
3J.ForsettBAL39 3C.IvoryNYJ46.9% 3A.BradshawIND32
4D.MurrayDAL35 4M.IngramNO46.9% 4P.ThomasNO29
5M.IngramNO29 5K.MorenoMIA43.1% 5S.TaylorARI22
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WIDE RECEIVERS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1C.JohnsonDET72 1A.BrownPIT104.5%
2A.BrownPIT56 2D.HesterATL93.6%
3D.HesterATL46 3G.TateDET84.9%
4A.BoldinSF46 4J.JonesOAK80.7%
5M.FloydARI45 5C.JohnsonDET71.3%
Want more in-depth stats? Go Premium!through Week 1

TIGHT ENDS 2014

DYAR Leaders (Total Value)DVOA Leaders (Value per Play)
1J.ThomasDEN43 1Z.ErtzPHI102.2%
2Z.ErtzPHI33 2J.ThomasDEN76.3%
3M.BennettCHI33 3D.WalkerTEN64.7%
4G.OlsenCAR31 4V.DavisSF51.2%
5V.DavisSF25 5T.EifertCIN47.7%
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Most Recent Articles

15 Sep 2014, 02:36pm by Chad Peltier

OFI: Letdown Saturday

A week after big upsets of Stanford and Ohio State, the USC and Virginia Tech themselves fell to less-talented opponents. Georgia also fell to South Carolina after pummeling Clemson in the opener.

» More...

0 comments

15 Sep 2014, 10:05am by Luke McKenna

Audibles at the Line: Week 2

Topics this week include the Wilson-Rivers shootout in San Diego, the Bears' ugly comeback in San Francisco, and Jake's first-half a-Locker-lypse in Tennessee.

» More...

114 comments, Last at 15 Sep 2014, 11:35pm by nuclearbdgr

13 Sep 2014, 10:22am by Matt Waldman

Futures: Alabama WR Amari Cooper

Cooper's game has elements of Michael Crabtree and Roddy White. See what he must learn to fit into either one of these starters' development trajectory.

» More...

0 comments

12 Sep 2014, 07:05pm by Bill Connelly

Varsity Numbers: Follow the Bouncing Ball

We like to think of fumble recoveries as a 50/50 proposition, but how much of an impact does the location of the fumble have on who recovers it? Bill Connelly takes a look.

» More...

0 comments

12 Sep 2014, 03:49pm by J.J. Cooper

Under Pressure: Trouble in Foxborough

Most expected New England's line to struggle after the loss of Logan Mankins, but J.J. Cooper says the Patriots have other concerns.

» More...

4 comments, Last at 13 Sep 2014, 3:45am by stevo

12 Sep 2014, 11:03am by Rory Hickey

The Week In Quotes: September 12, 2014

Not surprisingly, there's a lot of negativity concerning you-know-who in this TWIQ. But if you make it all the way through we can promise a happy ending.

» More...

2 comments, Last at 12 Sep 2014, 2:53pm by armchair journeyman quarterback

11 Sep 2014, 02:23pm by Cian Fahey

Film Room: Saints' Defensive Schemes

Kenny Vaccaro and Jairus Byrd were supposed to form one of the NFL's best safety duos. So why were things so easy for Atlanta on Sunday?

» More...

11 comments, Last at 12 Sep 2014, 6:44pm by RedTUS

11 Sep 2014, 01:09pm by Chad Peltier

SDA: Dawgs Go for South Carolina Sweep

After a dominant second half against Clemson, many in the media are happy to put Georgia into playoff projections. This week's matchup against South Carolina should provide more clarity.

» More...

4 comments, Last at 11 Sep 2014, 7:46pm by cfn_ms

11 Sep 2014, 11:31am by Ben Muth

Word of Muth: Ravens' New Scheme

The Ravens lost a nail-biter in Week 1, but Ben Muth found plenty to like about their offensive line's performance and Gary Kubiak's play design.

» More...

8 comments, Last at 12 Sep 2014, 5:19pm by atworkforu

11 Sep 2014, 11:16am by Aaron Schatz

ESPN: Pittsburgh Can Win the AFC North

Look, it's a sort-of-summarized version of the Pittsburgh chapter from Football Outsiders Almanac 2014!

» More...

0 comments

10 Sep 2014, 09:37pm by Brian Fremeau

ESPN: Handicapping The SEC

There is a good chance that the SEC champion will have two marks in the loss column at the end of the year. What then?

» More...

2 comments, Last at 11 Sep 2014, 1:33pm by cfn_ms

10 Sep 2014, 12:07pm by Brian Fremeau

FEI Week 2: Cardinal Sins

How unique was Stanford's inability to finish drives against USC last weekend? And is it a problem that can be fixed?

» More...

2 comments, Last at 11 Sep 2014, 1:30pm by cfn_ms

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