Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

12 Nov 2010

Week 10 N.F.L. Matchups

Any week I can work in a Patty Duke Show reference is a good week.

Posted by: Mike Tanier on 12 Nov 2010

22 comments, Last at 15 Nov 2010, 5:52pm by AudacityOfHoops

Comments

1
by andrew :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 12:03pm

The picks are straight up, not vs spread, right?

2
by Arkaein :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 12:37pm

Hmmm, if the Titans are far better than their record, and no team in the NFL has a record more than one game better than the Titans, does that mean you think the Titans are the best team in the NFL?

Maybe the Titans are just a little better than their record.

3
by Noah of Arkadia :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 12:39pm

Yes, Andrew. And don't pay any attention to how he picked the Redskins after bashing them the whole paragraph. That's just Tanier's way of dealing with being an Eagles fan.

4
by Michael LaRocca (not verified) :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 12:44pm

Was she on the Dukes of Hazzard?

5
by Arkaein :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 12:48pm

Also, just noticed that if the Cardinals and 49ers both win their home games this weekend against their division brethren thehn every NFC West team will have a losing record, keeping the dream of a 7-9 playoff team not only alive, but walking around and feeling pretty good about itself.

Epic.

6
by Manonanon (not verified) :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 1:15pm

I was disappointed that the link referring to the Jaguars' team bus jumping the St. Johns did not include an actual picture of a bus jumping a river.

9
by jfsh :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 4:13pm

Me too.

18
by joe.attaboy (not verified) :: Sat, 11/13/2010 - 12:42pm

My wife and daughter did an Alzheimer's charity walk across the St. John's this morning. I warned them to watch for the bus as they trotted across the Main Street Bridge, but the team was probably at practice.

I'd pay money to see that, too,

7
by ChaosOnion :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 2:54pm

Does anyone else draw a parallel between Man-genius and wunderkind McDaniels? Recent victory notwithstanding, I get the feeling during a candid conversation in his office, the sleeveless one chuckled a bit under his breath a bit before agreeing "yes, you would be a great head coach" with both these guys.

And that linked picture of Rex dressed as Rob is hilarious!

11
by mawbrew :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 5:09pm

Maybe, but if I remember correctly, BB was very supportive of McDaniels taking the Denver job, but not so much with Mangini taking the Jets job. Of course, that may just prove that it was a reverse psychology, Jedi mind trick in Mangini's case.

That said, I think Mangini is doing a nice job this year. The team has been close in every game (except Pitt) despite going three deep in the QB rotation.

8
by RichC (not verified) :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 4:13pm

". David Garrard has a higher passer rating (98.8) than Peyton Manning, Tom Brady, Eli Manning or Drew Brees. "

you know what would be awesome? If that stat wasn't useless.

10
by chemical burn :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 4:22pm

Yeah, especially because his DVOA is #20 compared to their #3, #2, #15 & #12 ranks respectively. But I've heard that it is entirely the fault of Garrard's line he is struggling, so he has that going for him.

Seriously, is Tanier not allowed to cite FO's numbers in these write-ups? Why would he even mention passer rating?

12
by Mystyc :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 5:09pm

It's fair to bring up when making the point that the Jaguars are way undercovered by the media, even for things that normally get a lot of play. Garrard's DVOA rating wouldn't actually mean anything in that context. (Sadly.)

13
by chemical burn :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 6:19pm

I don't know if that's even fair: isn't his passer rating like 7th or 8th in the league? On a .500 team? That's hardly a news story even by extremely lax mainstream standards...

19
by fyo :: Sat, 11/13/2010 - 2:28pm

Tanier consistently cherry-picks his stats to support whatever argument he's making (although that doesn't necessarily prevent him from picking against that same argument).

Part of the blame may be the blurb-like nature of the write-ups.

Classic example is the Rams-49ers blurb:

The Rams are statistically superior to the other N.F.C. West teams.

Except in EVERY SINGLE major stat at Football Outsiders (Total DVOA, Offense, Defense, as well as Special Teams).

It's rather disappointing to see that particular write-up. It's completely "classic stat" biased and misses all the things that make FO great. Like maybe the reason the 49ers have done poorly (in classic stats and wins) is that their SCHEDULE has been a heck of a lot tougher:

SF: @Seattle, New Orleans, @Kansas City, @Atlanta, Philadelphia, Oakland, Carolina, Denver.
STL: Arizona, @Oakland, Washington, Seattle, @Detroit, San Diego, @Tampa Bay, Carolina.

14
by wr (not verified) :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 8:33pm

Sorry, Mike, but the "Sanford & Son" reference decidedely
trumps the "Patty Duke" reference.

15
by Bobman :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 10:12pm

You big dummy, now he'll feel the big one coming, ('lizbeth).

Actually, I have a Patty Duke question for anyone who remembers--was the concept of that show they she/they were identical cousins, or am I conflating it with another show? How on earth does one fertilized egg divide into two embryos to form identical cousins? That's gotta be like, what, a 100 to one shot?

And later she went on to give birth to Rudy AND Samkon Gado! She's practically a football dynasty herself.

16
by Rich in Atlanta (not verified) :: Fri, 11/12/2010 - 11:01pm

Yes, identical cousins - it's in the theme song, which I unfortunately can still remember. It gets better. One was a fun loving American, the other a straight laced Brit. Hilarity ensued.

17
by Steve :: Sat, 11/13/2010 - 12:53am

That Darrelle Revis line is great.

20
by Anthony Brancato (not verified) :: Sun, 11/14/2010 - 8:10am

Interestingly, for the first time this season I'm not picking any team to lose its game but cover the spread, so straight-up and against-the-spread are coterminous.

Some of my top picks:

CHI over Min: Vikings are 3-18 straight up in their last 21 "Triple Witching Hour" games; this refers to when a pure domed-stadium team (not a retractable-roof team) has to play outdoors, on natural grass, and in cold weather; i.e., at a northern, outdoor site in November or later, all in the same game.

BUF over Det: Lions have lost 15 consecutive cold-weather games (same definition as above), not having won such a game since Dec. 17, 2000. Plus no Matthew Stafford, and this will be Buffalo's first game this entire season against a team that is currently below .500 - a statement that is true of no other team in the entire NFL.

NYG over Dal: Cowboys are 10-28 straight up and 12-24-2 against the spread in cold-weather games since 1995 (and with the aggravating factor of this game being in the late time slot) - and from 1997-2009, all inclusive, teams losing the first meeting at home to a division rival have a .324 winning percentage in the second meeting on the road; all other road teams over the same 13-year period have won at a .431 clip.

TB over Car: Panthers lost the first meeting at home to Bucs (20-7, in Week 2) and have no healthy RB to exploit 30th-ranked TB run defense.

SF over StL: Rams have lost 10 in a row on natural grass by a combined 155 points, and 12 in a row outdoors by a combined 213 points.

WAS over Pha: Skins won 17-12 at Philly in Week 4 (this game, and Dal @ NYG and Car @ TB, are the first games this season where a team has to go on the road and face an opponent they have already lost to at home).

21
by BJR :: Sun, 11/14/2010 - 9:24am

Do you not think Vegas might have already factored in home advantage for outdoor teams into the price?

22
by AudacityOfHoops :: Mon, 11/15/2010 - 5:52pm

HOW CAN I SUBSCRIBE TO YOUR STONE COLD PIPE LOCKS NEWSLETTER???