Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

19 Nov 2010

Week 11 N.F.L. Matchups

This week I get all poetic about Brady and Manning, and I fuse together as many sci-fi cliches as I can to describe Donovan McNabb's future.

Posted by: Mike Tanier on 19 Nov 2010

14 comments, Last at 20 Nov 2010, 3:21pm by mathesond

Comments

1
by zenbitz :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 1:56pm

Did Shuan Hill ever lead the NFL in DVOA? Even for 2 games?
I don't think Troy Smith is that good - but if defense stop putting 8 in the box on first and second down, the Niners will be able to run a little.

They will probably lose to Tampa on stupid penalties, however.

2
by Just Another Falcons Fan (not verified) :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 2:30pm

"Generic Victory Porridge" sounds pretty good after 40 years of futility soup with a side order of big game failure and a ridiculous garnish.

8
by Jerry :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 7:46pm

Just enjoy it. It doesn't matter if the game's not especially sexy to a national audience, or if the reviews are bad afterward. You still had fun watching.

3
by TimTheEnchanter (not verified) :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 2:34pm

I love the juxtapositon of the outstanding Redskins write-up with what essentially amounts to "I've got nothin'" for the Rams-Falcons game that immediately follows.

Nice job pulling in one of my favorite Twighlight Zone bits of all time.

4
by AnonymousYo (not verified) :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 3:09pm

I love that Shaun Suisham/Little Big Man analogy. We really need to have more players bounce back and forth between the Cowboys and Redskins (Or Chiefs, or whatever) so that it can be used more often.

12
by Bobman :: Sat, 11/20/2010 - 1:19am

Well the Colts/Jags/Texans play the Giants and Titans three times total this year--that's worthy of a Sinbad the Sailor movie reference, I think.

Probably a Horse Whisperer joke for the Chiefs and Raiders, who each play five horse opponents: Chargers and Broncos twice, plus Colts.

And whoever gets picked apart by the Eagles and Falcons in the same year... struggling to come up with an "injured bunny crossing the interstate" reference. Not too many road-kill-themed movies, probably for good reason. Maybe the Coen brothers can whip something up.

14
by mathesond :: Sat, 11/20/2010 - 3:21pm

This Roadkill was a pretty good movie

5
by chemical burn :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 3:23pm

Hey Tanier, can I just get a quick answer: are you not allowed to cite FO advanced stats in these? I found the whole bit about Oakland having the "second best rushing offense" to be worthless garbage I could ignore... and was surprised to see their rushing offense is actually good even by DVOA standard (#6.) And using DVOA emphasize just how amazingly good the Steeler's rush defense is wouldn't have hurt anything either. That game is an interesting match-up for exactly the reasons you write, but using using conventional stats gave me a knee-jerk "Well, here's some more dubious bullshit" response...

6
by strutzby (not verified) :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 5:18pm

I've seen comments from FO writers in the past regarding this issue. The common thought is that if the traditional stats agree with the advanced ones, then your audience will be more accepting if you just feed them the traditional stats.

10
by chemical burn :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 10:53pm

That's actually good to know... it's consistent enough that I can just file it away as the truth and just read these as encrypted DVOA, right?

7
by maestro876 :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 7:18pm

I'm surprised to see no mention of Oakland's ridiculous fumble luck. 22 fumbles on offense and only 4 lost? Crazy.

9
by Michael LaRocca (not verified) :: Fri, 11/19/2010 - 10:44pm

That crisp new thrill in the Carolina air is the beginning of the Brian St Pierre Era, bringing back thrilling memories of the Chris Weinke Era and ensuring we'll be forever immortalized in trivia contests forevermore.

11
by Bobman :: Sat, 11/20/2010 - 1:12am

"...but when he pushes McNabb out of the way of an oncoming car he ironically causes a temporal paradox and creates the dystopic future he set out to prevent."

Story of my life. I wish I had a buck for every time that has happened to me.

Mike, I never tire of 18/12 hype, but it wouldn't violate federal laws (I THINK... still checking) to mention that they each tend to win when their D steps up, too. Five games leap to mind instantly, with defensive plays high among their most memorable aspects to me: Ty Law picking Manning 3 or 4 times in Jan 2004, Brady throwing 3 picks in 2005/6 reg season game, the 4th and 2 stop last year, Manning being sacked on the penultimate play in the 04 season opener making the final FG attempt 48 yards instead of 40 and McGinnest stoning Edge on the final run from the 1 in the 03 reg season game.

Yes, Marvin Harrison had the "I tip it back in-bounds to myself in the endzone" catch in one of those--I admit that sticks out as an all-time amazing ofensive play, but the D guys have had a little something to say about the final outcome too. The 2006 AFCCG... okay, you got me there. The 2nd quarter pick-six of Manning aside, did either D show up that day? There was a late pick by th Colts to seal it, but that seemed inevitable rather than game-changing.

13
by compucrazy :: Sat, 11/20/2010 - 11:01am

Don't forget about Bob Sanders crucial pick of Tom Brady on third down when it was a one-score game in that 06 AFCCG.