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» OFI: Letdown Saturday

A week after big upsets of Stanford and Ohio State, the USC and Virginia Tech themselves fell to less-talented opponents. Georgia also fell to South Carolina after pummeling Clemson in the opener.

16 Apr 2009

2003 NFL Draft: Six Years Later

by Sean McCormick

The 2003 draft was instructive in many ways. We learned that it was possible for the Bengals to draft a quarterback who wasn't terrible. We learned that calling a defensive tackle "Baby Sapp" in no way guaranteed that he would play like Warren Sapp. Perhaps most importantly, we learned for the first time that Matt Millen really, really liked drafting wide receivers. If you want to go back to a time when everything old was new again, let us introduce you to the 2003 draft. Once again, Football Outsiders continues its annual tradition of looking back six years with the benefit of 20/20 hindsight. Our draft review looks at the good picks, the bad picks, and the things every general manager knows now and wishes he had known then.

Quarterback

Conventional wisdom: While most experts agreed that USC's Carson Palmer was the best quarterback prospect to come along since Peyton Manning, there were some who were concerned that Palmer had not been consistently dominant before his senior season. Marshall's Byron Leftwich was considered a top 10 talent, but after playing his final season with a metal rod in his leg, there were concerns that he was damaged goods. Cal's Kyle Boller, Florida's Rex Grossman, Texas' Chris Simms and Louisville's Dave Ragone were all looked at as possible first- or early second-round picks.

Highest pick: Carson Palmer, Southern California, first overall to the Bengals.

Best player: Carson Palmer, Southern California, first overall selection. It's always a pleasant surprise when the scouts are absolutely right. Palmer had the chance to sit for a year and learn behind Jon Kitna, and because he took over for an offense that had talented wideouts and a solid offensive line, he was able to produce almost immediately. If the draft was held over again, Palmer would easily be the first player taken.

Biggest bust: Kyle Boller, California, 19th overall to the Ravens. Boller's big claim to fame during the run-up to the draft was throwing a football through the goalposts while kneeling at midfield. He quickly became yet another cautionary tale about the dangers of putting too much stock in Pro Days and individual workouts. Boller was too mechanical was his decision making, and he never had the necessary accuracy to go along with his physical gifts. This shouldn't have surprised anyone, seeing as Boller finished his four seasons at Cal with a 49.1% career completion percentage.

Best value: Chris Simms, Texas, 97th overall to the Bucs. Simms had first-round ability, but his failure to come up big in big games, particularly against Oklahoma, led some to question his toughness. Simms quarterbacked the Bucs to an 11-5 record in 2005, and the following season he finished a game against Carolina despite rupturing his spleen midway through. Is that tough enough for you?

Other notable picks: Rex Grossman went to the Bears with the 22nd pick overall and he would eventually "lead" the team to the Super Bowl. Drew Henson, who spent his career at Michigan splitting time with Tom Brady (and being touted as the true pro prospect of the two) before opting to play baseball for the Yankees, was drafted by the Texans in the sixth round on the chance that he would decide to give up baseball. He did, but never was able to make up for the time he missed on the gridiron, and is currently number three on the depth chart in Detroit.

Running Back

Conventional wisdom: The running back crop was considered to be the weakest in years, with only Penn State's Larry Johnson carrying a first-round grade. Miami's Willis McGahee had been a surefire top ten pick, but he suffered a gruesome knee injury in the Fiesta Bowl and was seen as a major injury risk.

Highest pick: Willis McGahee, Miami, 23rd overall to the Bills. Buffalo decided that a healthy McGahee was worth waiting for, so they went ahead and spent a first-round pick on him. McGahee rewarded the club by spouting off to a reporter about how terrible it was living in Buffalo and how the team needed to move to Toronto. Whatever the merits of his argument, management didn't appreciate it, and after a couple years they shipped McGahee off to Baltimore for fifty cents on the dollar.

Best player: Larry Johnson, Penn State, 27th overall to the Chiefs. Kansas City was set with Priest Holmes as the starter, but they opted to take a best player available and it paid off handsomely, as Johnson blossomed into one of the top backs in the league. (He might still be the best back in football today had someone informed Herm Edwards of the Curse of 370.)

Biggest bust: Musa Smith, Georgia, 77th overall to the Ravens. Smith was supposed to be a big, bruising back, but he was the one who spent most of the time bruised. Smith could never stay healthy, and his production was pedestrian at best, as he only gained 496 yards during his five-year career.

Best value: Larry Johnson. Johnson would have been good value had he gone in the top five of this draft; at 27, he was a steal.

Other notable picks: Chris Brown had some good success as part of a rotation system in Tennessee, first with Eddie George and later with LenDale White. Justin Fargas came out of USC with the kind of track-star speed that Al Davis loves, and he has managed to put together several solid seasons behind a poor offensive line. Onterrio Smith is notable primarily for bringing "The Whizzinator" to the attention of America.

Wide Receiver

Conventional wisdom: This was a top-heavy group, with Michigan State's Charles Rogers and Miami's Andre Johnson each considered worthy of a top-five pick. Penn State's Bryant Johnson, Florida's Taylor Jacobs, and Tennessee's Kelley Washington were seen as guys with the potential to sneak into the latter portion of the first round, while Middle Tennessee State's Tyrone Calico was a late-rising dark horse expected to go early in the second round.

Highest pick: Charles Rogers, Michigan State, second overall to the Lions.

Best player: Andre Johnson, Miami, third overall to the Texans. This is what the Peyton Manning-Ryan Leaf debate looks like on Bizarro World. Johnson was almost universally considered to be just a notch below Rogers, as there were concerns that he was not as fluid or sure-handed. Needless to say, those concerns proved to be unfounded, as Johnson developed into one of the most physically dominating receivers in the NFL. Meanwhile...

Biggest bust: Charles Rogers, Michigan State. Rogers most assuredly did not develop into one of the most physically dominating receivers in the NFL. Instead, he was brittle, had a poor work ethic, some off-the-field problems, and was simply not very good. Everybody loved Rogers, and as it turned out, everybody was 100 percent wrong. Rogers was last seen being invited to compete for a spot on the Montreal Alouettes. Oh dear.

Best value: Arnaz Battle, Notre Dame, 197th overall to the 49ers. Battle was a converted quarterback who made the transition to wide receiver and filled a jack-of-all-trades role with the Fighting Irish. He started off slowly with San Francisco, but developed into a capable starter.

Other notable picks: The first step in Arizona's ascent from perennial doormat to Super Bowl participant took place in this draft when the Cardinals landed Florida State's Anquan Boldin in the second round. (One of this draft's two important lessons on why strong college production generally trumps a bad combine or Pro Day.) Nate Burleson and Kevin Curtis went within three picks of each other in the third round, and both players have gone on to be productive starters. The Giants selected David Tyree in the seventh round, little suspecting that he would go on to make one of the most memorable catches in Super Bowl history.

Tight End

Conventional wisdom: There were no elite prospects who were considered worthy of top-ten selection, but there was tremendous depth at the position, with seven or eight players considered likely to go in the first day. Headliners included Tennessee's Jason Witten, Iowa's Dallas Clark, and Michigan's Benny Joppru.

Highest pick: Dallas Clark, Iowa, 24th overall to the Colts.

Best player: Jason Witten, Tennessee. Witten was the top tight end on most boards leading up to the draft, but he was not considered to be either a dominant receiver or an overwhelming blocker and so he ended up being selected behind Clark, Bennie Joppru, and L.J. Smith. Witten quickly blossomed into the best Dallas tight end since Jay Novacek left town.

Biggest bust: Teyo Johnson, Stanford, 63rd overall to the Raiders. Johnson was a wide receiver at Stanford, but at 6-foot-5 and nearly 260 pounds, he projected to tight end in the pros. His combination of size and speed fascinated scouts (and, needless to say, set Al Davis a-drooling), but Johnson never showed the work ethic to go along with his natural gifts. Instead of becoming the next Kellen Winslow, he washed out of the league and is now playing in the CFL.

Best value: Witten. When you can draft a Pro Bowl-caliber player in the third round, you're doing something right.

Other notable picks: The Eagles selected Rutgers' L.J. Smith in the second round and got several years of productivity, all wrapped up in a soft-as-vanilla-ice-cream package. Donald Lee was good value for Miami with the 156th selection overall.

Special Will Carroll "Health is a Skill" Award: Joppru went 41st overall to Houston and then suffered season-ending injuries in three straight preseasons. He didn't see the field until 2006.

Offensive line

Conventional wisdom: There was plenty of projection going on with the top of this group. Utah's Jordan Gross was considered the top lineman available, but there were concerns that he was better suited to play on the right side or even at guard. Stanford's Kwame Harris had been a right tackle in college, but scouts thought he had the quick feet to slide over and handle the left side. Everyone thought Iowa's Eric Steinbach was an elite player, but they weren't sure if he would stay at guard or move to tackle. Georgia's George Foster was a mountain of a man at 6-5 and 338 pounds, but no one was sure if he could actually play.

Highest pick: Jordan Gross, eighth overall to the Panthers.

Best player: Jordan Gross. Gross stepped in immediately as a rookie and took every snap at right tackle for the Panthers. He has flipped back and forth between the left and right tackle spots depending on Carolina's need, but he has been better on the right side. Gross was set to be one of the most sought-after free agents this offseason, but the Panthers slapped the franchise tag on him while they worked out the parameters for a new six-year deal.

Biggest bust: Kwame Harris, Stanford, 26th overall to the 49ers. It's not often when an offensive linemen has a Youtube montage dedicated exclusively to his false starts. (Unfortunately, it looks like the video has been pulled from Youtube.)

Best value: David Diehl, Illinois, 160th overall to the Giants. Diehl is one of only two offensive linemen in this draft class to start every game since his rookie season. He broke into the league as a right guard, but he also started at right tackle and left guard before settling in at the prized left tackle spot.

Other notable picks: George Foster seemed like a strange fit for Denver's zone blocking scheme, and while he did start for the Broncos during their run to the 2005 AFC Championship game, he was then traded to Detroit. Eric Steinbach was the first interior linemen taken when Cincinnati selected him at the top of the second round, and he put in four excellent seasons before bolting north to Cleveland for a big free agent contract. Derrick Dockery was a massive guard who was a serviceable starter in Washington, but after cashing in on a big contract with Buffalo, he regressed and was released.

Defensive line

Conventional wisdom: This was considered to be a great defensive line draft, particularly at the tackle position, where Kentucky's Dewayne Robertson and Penn State's Jimmy Kennedy were at the top of the class, but Georgia's Jonathan Sullivan, Oklahoma State's Kevin Williams, and Texas A&M's Ty Warren were not far behind. The premiere defensive end was Arizona State's Terrell Suggs, but his awful Pro Day workout threw draft boards into flux all over the league as teams had to decide whether to trust the tape or Suggs' pedestrian workout numbers.

Highest pick: Dewayne Robertson, Kentucky, fourth overall to the Jets.

Best player: Kevin Williams, Oklahoma State, ninth overall to the Vikings. Minnesota started off with the seventh pick in the draft, but they failed to pick a player before time expired, allowing both Jacksonville (who picked Byron Leftwich) and Carolina (Jordan Gross) to sneak ahead of them. It looked like a major botch at the time, but the Vikings still ended up with Williams, the player they were targeting from the beginning. Williams has been a key component in what is consistently one of the top run defenses in the league.

Biggest bust: Jonathan Sullivan, Georgia sixth overall to the Saints. There were a great many disappointments in this class -- both Dewayne Robertson and Jimmy Kennedy badly underperformed -- but Sullivan showed absolutely nothing beyond a propensity for eating hamburgers during his three-year stay in New Orleans. He went on to spend one season in New England before washing out of the league.

Best value: Tully Banta-Cain, California, 239th overall to the Patriots. Banta-Cain was productive enough as a situational player to land a big contract with San Francisco. The 49ers quickly realized that Banta-Cain was not a difference maker and released him after one season, so now he's back in New England.

Other notable picks: Suggs slipped out of the top five, but Baltimore swooped him up with the tenth pick. He immediately put concerns about his physical skills to rest, as he compiled 12 sacks and an interception on his way to winning defensive rookie of the year. The Giants tabbed the little-known Osi Umenyiora at the bottom of the second round and he rewarded them with two Pro Bowl selections in his first four seasons.

Linebackers

Conventional wisdom: This was looked at as one of the weakest position groups in the draft. Maryland's E.J. Henderson had the size and production of a top middle linebacker, but he lacked speed and was looked at as a situational player. Georgia's Boss Bailey (Champ's younger brother) was the premiere athlete at the position, but concerns about his toughness and durability threatened his status as a first-rounder. Oregon State's Nick Barnett was an undersized player whose stock rose late.

Highest pick: Nick Barnett, Oregon State, 29th overall to the Packers.

Best player: Barnett. Many people were surprised when the Packers took Barnett ahead of Bailey, but he proved to be a good fit as an undersized Mike backer in their 4-3 look. Barnett has been a Pro Bowl alternate in each of the past six seasons.

Biggest bust: Eddie Moore, Tennessee, 49th overall to the Dolphins. Rick Spielman and the rest of Miami's war room were united in the assumption that the team would take Anquan Boldin with the 49th pick, but they were overruled by Dave Wannstedt, who selected Moore because... well, because Miami needed a linebacker. Moore recorded 18 tackles during his two seasons with Miami. Score another one for drafting for need.

Best value: Cato June, Michigan, 198th overall to the Colts. June fit the profile for what Bill Polian looks for in a linebacker; he was undersized at 6-0, 227 pounds, but he was fast and instinctive. June played for four years in Indy before moving on to Tampa Bay and then to Houston.

Other notable picks: The Bears scored when they took Arizona's Lance Briggs in the third round. Vanderbilt's Hunter Hillenmeyer didn't make Green Bay's final roster after being drafted by the Packers in the fifth round, but he signed on with Chicago and would end up starting alongside Briggs.

Defensive backs

Conventional wisdom: There were two elite corner prospects in Terence Newman and Marcus Trufant, while USC's Troy Polamalu was looked at as being a difference maker at safety. Newman was a shutdown corner and a special teams star at Kansas State and was considered a possible first overall selection. Trufant had some lapses in coverage at Washington State, but he had a strong Senior Bowl and good workouts. Oklahoma's Andre Woolfolk was a raw but intriguing prospect who had a chance to slip into the bottom of the first round.

Highest pick: Terence Newman, fifth overall to the Cowboys.

Best player: Nnamdi Asomugha, 31st overall to the Raiders. With all due respect to Polamalu, who is a superlative player, a corner who can't be thrown on is worth more than a safety. Asomugha was considered something of a reach when the Raiders took him, but now he's arguably the best defensive player in the league.

Biggest bust: Andre Woolfolk, Oklahoma, 28th overall to the Titans. Woolfolk was not a finished product, but the Titans took a chance on the upside of a 6-2 corner with speed and athleticism. But Woolfolk never developed, intercepting only three passes during his four seasons in Tennessee.

Best value: Asante Samuel, Central Florida, 120th overall to the Patriots. Samuel was perhaps underappreciated during the period when it seemed like Bill Belichick could plug in just about anyone in the secondary and get a good performance. As it turns out, he was simply the last cornerback the team hit on during the draft. Samuel took his Pro Bowl game to Philadelphia last offseason, and he took New England's pass defense with him.

Other notable picks: This was a very good draft class, and there were a lot of excellent players, starting with Polamalu, who has been the most identifiable defender on Pittsburgh's two championship defenses. The Bills found Terrence McGee in the fourth round and have gotten solid production out of him both as a return man and as a number two corner. Miami drafted Eastern Kentukcy's Yeremiah Bell in the sixth round and were happy to reward him with a sizeable new contract this offseason. Seattle landed two immediate starters when they selected Marcus Trufant in the first and Arkansas safety Ken Hamlin in the second round.

Special teams

Conventional wisdom: There were no elite prospects considered worthy of even mid-round selections.

Highest pick: Mike Scifres, Western Illinois, 149th overall to the Chargers.

Best player: It's rare for a kicker or punter to dominate a game, but that's what Scifres did in last year's first-round playoff win over Indianapolis, with 51.7 yards per punt and four punts inside the 10 (with the other two inside the 20).

Biggest bust: Eddie Johnson, Idaho State, 180th overall to the Vikings. We're grasping at straws here, as Johnson was a sixth-round selection. Still, Johnson was so erratic during his single season in Minnesota that he was benched after 14 games. He hasn't played in a regular season game since.

Best value: Josh Brown, Nebraska, 222nd overall to the Seahawks. Brown has connected on 81.2 percent of his field goal attempts since coming into the league. He kicked for Seattle for his first five years and now plies his trade in St. Louis with the Rams.

Other notable picks: None.

Past articles in this series

Comments

1
by Temo :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 11:43am

"Witten quickly blossomed into the best Dallas tight end since Jay Novacek left town."

Witten has been way better than Novacek was. Also, Bunta-Cain as a bigger value than Osi Umenyiora is a bit iffy. I see where you're trying to do production vs. draft position, but I think you got it wrong on that one. Similar argument for Boldin vs. Battle (or even Kevin Curtis vs. Battle? Maybe?)

"Then again, I'm a Bobby Carpenter believer." -- Barnwell

10
by shake n bake :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 1:42pm

Robert Mathis in the 5th for Value, FTW.

Pro Bowler, 50 sacks the last 5 seasons, compared to 11.5 over the last 5 for Banta-Cain (the same number as Mathis had last year alone).

11
by DZ (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:05pm

Mathis is a pretty big omission.

12
by DZ (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:06pm

He has 30 career forced fumbles.

14
by shake n bake :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:12pm

that's over double Banta Cain's career sacks (12.5).

19
by shake n bake :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:29pm

If Banta-Cain was more valuable than Mathis, then Raheem Brock needed to get the nod over Kampman last year

2002
Kampman, 5th round pick, 41 sacks
Brock, 7th round pick, 25 sacks

2003
Mathis, 5th round pick, 53.5 sacks
Banta-Cain, 7th round, 12.5 sacks

21
by MJK :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:35pm

I don't disagree that Mathis was probably more valuable than Banta-Cain. But I have a minor quibble with your method of proving it.

There are more measures of an OLB's skill than sacks, espcially in a 3-4 defense. Banta-Cain's value came from the fact that he was a balanced player, with the ability (kind of) to rush the passer, and also the ability (kind of) to drop back into coverage. While he was only average at both those roles, even if he was very good at both, the fact that he did both would mean that you wouldn't expect him to match the sack total of a player used almost exclusively for pass rushing.

I agree that Mathis is the better player, and arguably the better value (I would rather pay a 5th for Mathis than a 7th for Banta-Cain, assuming, of course, that I had both a fifth and a seventh). I just get tired of people constantly rating a LB only by sack totals.

22
by shake n bake :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:49pm

I wouldn't have felt nearly as comfortable using just sacks (and I guess Pro Bowls) if TBC wasn't for the most part situational pass rusher being counted with the D-linemen.

30
by Bobman :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 4:29pm

My second-biggest problem with the TBC writeup was that the description sounds like he's washed up--got big $ in SF, then they didn't want him anymore so after a year now he's back in Foxboro. That's value? Isn't value something you actually want? Like Mathis, whom the Colts paid a lot of money to be their 2nd best DE. (I know it also has a price-per-unit-of-utility component--I think we are arguing that even though Mathis's price was higher than TBC he is worth more than enough to make up for it in terms of production--see the stats quotes above--and perceived desirability on the market--i.e. Mathis's first team paid a lot to keep him whereas TBC's did not, and his second did not want him either.)

How about valuing these guys on a $/lb basis? Mathis must rule.

Plus Mathis has the noble and distinguished name and initials that could be shortened to Bob M. Can't go wrong with that.

58
by MJK :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 11:08am

Looking with a productivity per dollar basis is a good idea. After all, the entire point of the draft, and why it is beneficial to draft well, is that you get a certain amount of talent that you don't have to overbid in free agency for.

2
by MJK :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 11:49am

And Ty Warren continues to be one of the most underrated defensive players in the league, even by FO. Not saying he's better than Williams or Suggs (although I think that could be a potential discussion), but he's easily one of the top three D-linemen taken that season. I'm not sure people outside of New England realize how good Warren is, becaue he gets overshadowed by Wilfork and Seymour. But when Seymour has struggled, Warren has picked up the slack. Yet he's not even mentioned in this article other than as a "top prospect"...no word of how he has done since being drafted.

Regarding Samuel and the Pats DB's...the Pats weren't able to plug in any old DB's and get production because of some magic beans that Belichick had. They were able to do so because they had an awesome pass rush and very good safety play. Their secondary fell apart not just because they lost Samuel (although that didn't help), but primarily because their pass rush evaporated. Last year when they were getting consistently torched, look at how much time opposing QB's had to throw... All their LB's got old, and Richard Seymour started underperforming.

28
by CaffeineMan :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 4:18pm

The thing about Samuels is that he wasn't great right away. He was never really noticed early on. As he started to get good, the CBA negotiations came along (2005? 2006?). I remember thinking that if the Pats wanted him, that was the year to lock him up, but I knew they wouldn't do it because they didn't want to commit that much money until they knew what the financial landscape was going to look like. By the time the CBA was done, he'd outplayed the Pats salary parameters for DB's and he was gone. I expect to see this happen to a number of other Pats in the upcoming CBA negotiation time frame.

3
by Matu (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 12:05pm

"Gross was set to be one of the most sought-after free agents this offseason, but the Panthers slapped the franchise tag on him while they worked out the parameters for a new six-year deal."

The Panthers never put the franchise tag on Gross, they put it on Peppers right after signing Gross to that big contract.

27
by Parmenides :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 4:05pm

Gross had the franchise tag placed on him after the 2007 season, last year.

4
by Charles Jake (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 12:21pm

Lance Briggs is the best player and best value of the linebacker class.

That is all.

15
by Kenneth (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:17pm

Agreed.

16
by Jimmy :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:20pm

What he said.

Also not even a mention of Charles Tillman in the CB section?

Shouldn't Justin Gage get a mention above Arnaz (my team keeps trying to replace me) Battle?

24
by Marko :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 3:20pm

Agreed about Briggs and Tillman.

Also, DE Michael Haynes (selected 14th overall by the Bears) deserves a mention as a notable disappointment.

39
by Jimmy :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 6:16pm

Replying to myself (a bit odd but nevermind).

Tillman has had 16 interceptions the last four years, he also has 12 forced fumbles. I know not all fumbles will be recovered, but say half were recovered that would be 22 turnovers in four years.

Looking at other DBs around the league over the last four years and using a similar assumption about recovery probablity (ie. count them as half a turnover) some other top DBs - a random selection of data from PFR.

Ed Reed - 23
Marcus Trufant - 11.5
Nnamdi Asomugha - 11 but obviously everyone avoids him.
Sheldon Brown - 9.5
Troy Polamalu - 14.5
Asante Samuel - 23.5
Champ Bailey - 23.5
Al Harris - 8.5
Charles Woodson - 22.5
Brian Dawkins - 16.5
Nate Clements - 15.5

Obviously the list is not exhaustive and it only measures turnovers and can't adjust for guys who are left on islands and others that play in zone schemes, and some are safeties and others corners. It was just a quick look, intially with the intention of finding out whether my hunch that Tillman causes an unusual amount of FFs. I just picked a bunch of DBs who had made the Pro Bowl over the last few years and looked up their numbers on PFR. Also just looking at the last four years is also fairly arbitrary. Having said all that I had no idea when I started to look up the numbers of some of the best DBs in football simply to have something to compare it to that Tillman's turnover numbers keep pretty good company.

66
by Lou :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:24pm

i completely agree with each of the above bears related posts. i'd add that i don't think arnaz battle is any more valuable than 5th round picks justin gage or bobby wade.

starts/rec/yds/tds
battle 38 173 2110 11
wade 44 208 2491 7
gage 35 153 2309 12

i was also going to make an argument for michael haynes being the biggest dline bust, but he did end up with 4 more sacks than sullivan though sullivan started more games, and both played only 3 seasons. i also found out haynes had a 45 yard int return td which i don't remember at all. anyone else remember that?

67
by Lou :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:43pm
31
by BigCheese :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 4:49pm

Could not agree more. And between him and Boldin (who don't qualify), and Witten and LJ (who do), I have no idea what the parameters for best value are supposed to be.

Because are you seriously going to try to talk me into believing LJ for a first rounder has more value than Briggs for a thrid or Boldinf or a second?

I also would argue that Namdi was the best value at CB, but at least I can see the argument for Samuel. Not so with June and Battle. Specially Battle. Seriously, the only reason he started so much for SF is because their recieving has been abysmal these past six years.

- Alvaro

5
by JasonK :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 12:26pm

I think I made this comment last year, too: You guys should link to the full list of 2003 draftees somewhere near the top of the article.

http://www.nfl.com/draft/history/fulldraft?season=2003&round=round1

As for my Giants, this was the year they really started to turn their drafting around. William Joseph in the 1st was a notable miss, but getting core players like Umenyiora and Diehl, as well as contributors like Visanthe Shiancoe, Frank Walker, and Dave Tyree (who was a 6th, not a 7th) was a big improvement on how the team had been doing in the previous 5 years or so. (The other nice player the Giants drafted was Kevin Walter-- unfortunately, the team gave up on him a bit too early.) It is also the first draft after Jerry Reese was promoted into Director of Pro Personnel job, which I don't think is a coincidence.

18
by John Walt :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:23pm

Why do you think David Tyree was part of the 'contributors' on the Giants? He caught one pass in one game (albeit an important one).

He has done nothing else.

36
by JasonK :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 5:50pm

Tyree's biggest contributions have always been on special teams-- it's why he was drafted in the first place. He's one of the best punt coverage guys in the league, and as a bonus, has performed adequately as a backup WR from time to time. (Also, in the "one game" you're thinking of, he caught 2 very important passes.)

38
by Roscoe :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 6:07pm

Two passes actually, one for a touchdown and the one off his helmet. And he made the pro bowl as a special teamer.

6
by Independent George :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 1:11pm

Wasn't Asomugha a safety in college, and Polamalu a LB? I suppose it's not unusual to see a college LB shifted to S, but isn't it rare for a S to make the transition to CB - let alone the premiere CB in the league?

34
by AlanSP :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 5:45pm

Asomugha and Polamalu were both safeties in college. It actually is pretty unusual to see college LBs move to safety (Michael Boulware is the only one I can think of off the top of my head). Safety to corner is also pretty uncommon, although there are frequently guys that played both safety and corner in college and end up as corners.

44
by FullMoonOverTulsa (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 9:56pm

Darren Woodson and Pat Tillman were both LBs at ASU.

"mousse" "relief"

35
by rk (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 5:47pm

As far as I know and could tell from 10 sec of Google search, no and no.

7
by Tom Gower :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 1:11pm

First round pick Andre Woolfolk. Second round pick Tyrone Calico. Third round pick Chris Brown. Fourth round pick Rien Long. Then-GM Floyd Reese. What do they have in common? They're no longer being paid by the Tennessee Titans. In fairness to Brown, he's started more games than the rest of the draft class combined (29 v. 28, incl. 5th rounder Donnie Nickey's 6 as part of the MASH unit that was the 2004 secondary) despite seemingly have a body made of glass.

8
by Key19 :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 1:29pm

Sigh... If only Jerry had reached for Asomugha instead of being conventional and taking Newman...

9
by Biebs (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 1:31pm

Wow.... I was just looking at the Jets draft. There's bad, and this is something beyond bad

1.4 - Dewayne Robertson (Jets traded 1.13, 1.22, and 4.116 for him)
2.53 - Victor Hobson
3.85 - BJ Askew
5.140 - Derek Pagel
5.150 - Matt Walters
6.200 - Brooks Bollinger
7.237 - Dave Yovanovits

Oddly, the only player of value they got from the 2003 draft was the UDFA - Brandon Moore.

13
by TerryW :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:08pm

Yeah, I agree - great writeup, but I think you stretch a little on best value. If a top pick turns out into one of the best players in the league, a true "difference-maker" (read: hugely above replacement) in my eyes that usually outweighs getting a good contribution from a low round pick.

My picks on best value differ from you on the following:
QB: Carson Palmer
WR: Anquan Boldin
DL: Kevin Williams
LB: Lance Briggs
DB: tossup between Samuel and Asomugha.

17
by Jimmy :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:22pm

Barnett has been a Pro Bowl alternate in each of the past six seasons.

Really?

Probably shouldn't have been.

23
by ammek :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:55pm

Ah the dangers of wikipedia! This quote — "Barnett has made the Pro Bowl as an alternate in every season of his career but still hasn’t played in a game yet" — is sourced from 2006. He was not named as an alternate in 2008, having missed seven starts.

20
by witless chum :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 2:34pm

Rd Sel # Player Position School
1 2 Charles Rogers WR Michigan State
2 34 Boss Bailey OLB Georgia
3 66 Cory Redding DE Texas
4 99 Artose Pinner RB Kentucky
5 137 Terrence Holt DB North Carolina State
5 144 James Davis LB West Virginia
6 175 David Kircus WR Grand Valley State
7 216 Ben Johnson T Wisconsin
7 220 Blue Adams CB Cincinnati
7 236 Brandon Drumm -- Colorado
7 260 Travis Anglin -- Memphis

Ah, Detroit. Players still on the team= 0

Rogers, who was actually last seen choosing a month in jail over continuing probation program, but promising a comeback in the Detroit Free Press. The article might actually be a little down on his actual play. He had decent numbers, 22 for 246 and 3 TDs in three games in 2003. Then he broke his collarbone. Then he broke it again in the first game in 2004. Then he never really came back.
Bailey was released after lacking production and injuries,
Redding was traded after having an excellent 2/3 of a year and getting a huge contract,
Pinner was okay, then cut, having his best game returning to Detroit with Minnesota,
Holt was decent at S, starting some, and left in free agency,
"Dirty D" Davis was primarily a special teamer/backup for few years and then cut,
Kirus didn't do much and was cut, went to Denver
None of the four seventh round guys did anything I'm aware of.

25
by c_f (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 3:24pm

1) Getting an elite starter in Boldin in R2 is a lot better value than a marginal-at-best starter in Battle somewhat later.

2) A pro bowl WLB (in the Tampa 2 no less) in Briggs in R3 is a better value than June later.

3) 2003 was an excellent year for Illinois OL:
David Diehl - R5 (#160) - LT, Giants
Tony Pashos - R5 (#173) - RT, Jaguars

also, Brandon Moore, a converted DL, was a 2002 UDFA who saw time on the Jets practice squad and NFL Europe before cracking NYJ's starting OL at guard in 2003. He's been entrenched as a starter since 2004.

26
by shake n bake :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 3:33pm

June made a Pro Bowl in 2005, but I'd be happy to give up June's spot if they'll give Mathis the spot he deserves as the DL value pick.

Plus June's middle name is Nnamdi and he played safety in college. I think there's something there. College safeties with the name Nnamdi become the best cover guys at their position in the league when they change positions.

29
by Neoplatonist Bolthead (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 4:25pm

Umm... Witten was the SECOND best value among tight ends selected in 2003. But he was the best value among those drafted. Antonio Gates was undrafted.

51
by justme_cd :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 2:24am

Seeing how many quibbles there are over "best value," perhaps a preferable term might be "a pick of notable value," or even "most surprising player based on draft position" as that seems to be kind of what they were going for. This still doesn't explain away the Mathis omission.

Also, throwing another name out there, Scott Shanle was good value for the 7th round too. Though they play completely different LB spots, Shanle has twice as many tackles, though fewer sacks.

32
by Sean McCormick :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 5:07pm

The Robert Mathis thing was a simple oversight- I think he would clearly count as the best value among defensive linemen. As for the general idea behind the best value, I did weigh getting significant contributions from a late round pick, particularly a sixth or seventh-rounder over developing a top flight player from, say, the second round. I can understand the argument to go the other way, but it's so much more likely for a second rounder to develop into an above average starter than for a late round pick to establish himself as a multi-year starter that I ended up giving those guys the nod. Besides, it seemed like it would make for a more interesting read.

33
by DZ (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 5:44pm

This is part of what makes FO a great site and the internet a fascinating way to interact with material. A minor dispute arises with an author, and he comes on, explains a small oversight and further explains his reasoning. Gotta love it. Thanks for the clarification!

48
by Bobman :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:38am

butt-smoocher!

;-)

59
by ABreck (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 11:08am

I'd love to hear the metrics for Barnett over Briggs. I don't know if it's a Chicago/GB thing but I don't get it. We rely on you guys to educate us and this would be a great chance to tell us what we're missing (hey, maybe it's a whole article?)

62
by Jimmy :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 11:58am

Briggs is the best 4-3 WILL linebacker in football. Playing the run he goes through guards like a knife through butter and is fantastic in coverage. Barnett had a slowish start to his career and I would imagine that the alternate votes for the Pro Bowl were mainly down to a paucity of top flight middle linebackers and the fact that as a first rounder he was fairly high profile. I am a Bears fan, but I doubt many Packers fans who have seen the two of them play over the course of their careers think Barnett is the better player.

Who knows though maybe this will start and argument.

77
by Noah of Arkadia :: Sun, 04/19/2009 - 11:35pm

Yeah, I mean, what would be the point of having the same guys you just read about before selected as best value. So even if Arnaz and the others are not the best value, I'm cool with it.

84
by Neoplatonist Bolthead (not verified) :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 12:45pm

I'd think some mention should go to undrafted guys who became stars anyway. That's part homer talking (Gates, Dielman), but "day 3" is really an important part of the draft.

37
by mattman7 (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 5:58pm

The Eagles' 2003 draft was by far the worst of the Andy Reid era, with LJ Smith being the only player who amounted to anything, and busts like Jerome McDougle and Billy McMullen were so terrible they made the team worse with their mere presence. But check out this list of undrafted players from the 2003 class:

Rod Hood
Quinton Mikell
Jamaal Jackson
Greg Lewis
Artis Hicks
Sam Rayburn
Reno Mahe

That's nearly a draft's worth of talent taken from the undrafted pool. While the Eagles clearly suffered from their poor drafting in 2003 and 2004 (especially on defense), the undrafted players provided enough depth to keep them from collapsing.

47
by AlanSP :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:07am

I forgot all of those guys came that year. That would actually be above average as a draft class. Mikell had a breakout year this season, Jackson's been starting at center since the middle of 2005, Hood was a great nickel corner who's now starting in Arizona (or was before they signed Bryant McFadden). Hicks started for a couple years before being traded, and the others were solid contributors off the bench (though I never really liked Reno Mahe). That's more talent than you find in the average draft class.

40
by Subrata Sircar :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 6:25pm

To some extent, this is a classic debate between efficiency and value. If "best value" were labeled more like "most efficient", it might convey the meaning more.

The classic debate applies even more to the draft. In order to win in the NFL, you need both talent and efficiency. (Put another way, if your entire team was UDFAs and made league minimum, and managed to go 2-14, you'd be pretty efficient - you just paid nothing extra for two wins! - but that's obviously not a competitive team.) That need for talent is why teams don't trade out of the top spots; some things can only be obtained with those picks, and you can't be efficient about obtaining them. You have to take them when you can and pay them what they're worth.

Efficiency is important as well because of the salary cap; you can't just sign the best free agents each year to top 1-year deals, since you won't have cap room for that. (This is not technically true in baseball, although the luxury tax can incent somewhat similar behavior.)

Anyway, your "best value" is clearly most efficient, under these terms.

41
by staubach (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 7:12pm

Loved the article, but for next year I would suggest that you split the "Best value" category into "Best 1st day value" and "Best 2nd day" value. I like the fact that you uncover some of the hidden gems from later rounds, but at the same time it is hard to take seriously the proposition that a player at or barely above replacement level picked in the seventh round is a better value than a Pro-Bowler picked in the 2nd or 3rd round.

42
by Sean McCormick :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 7:16pm

That's a good suggestion. Will do.

43
by tuluse :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 8:15pm

I try not to make statements like this, but Barnett as the best linebacker over Lance Briggs is just a joke.

Also, the Larry Johnson love seems a little over the top. Why not Justin Fargas for best value?

55
by TomKelso :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 7:19am

Because Larry Johnson has been a lot more productive, even given his draft position...

Heck, even the maligned Willis McGahee has been much more productive -- behind a decidedly mediocre line in Buffalo and an unproven one in Baltimore. But stupid things said once in an interview outweigh on-the-field performance.

45
by Rich Conley (not verified) :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 10:27pm

"Best value: Chris Simms, Texas, 97th overall to the Bucs."

So, A terrible QB, who at best was a backup, was the Best Value? Not a chance. Your value arguments are terrible.

And I agree with MJK on Warren, he definitely should have been mentioned, and theres a good chance he was the best player to come out of that draft. Kevin Williams is great, but hes a 2 down player. Warren isnt.

And Asante Samuel isn't that good.

53
by tuluse :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 3:35am

I don't know. A #2 QB at 97 overall could be a good value.

54
by debilliet (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 5:39am

Actually Kevin Williams is very much a 3 down player, and a good pass rushing DT (8.5 sacks last season) - it's Pat Williams who comes out on 3rd downs.

46
by D :: Thu, 04/16/2009 - 10:33pm

Briggs was the best LB and I think Boldin is at least Johnson's equal, but overall a good list.

56
by Mr Shush :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 9:07am

Seriously dude, I love Anquan Boldin as much as the next guy, but he is not as good as Andre Johnson. Last year Johnson had a 22.4% DVOA to Boldin's 13.9%, on 44 more passes, with worse quarterbacking (Schaub and Rosenfels vs. Kurt Warner 4.0) and with a complementary receiver who was a quality #2 (Walter), not a super-elite #1 drawing constant double coverage (Fitzgerald). That's substantially better per play performance, in a more difficult environment, over 30% more plays. Despite his excellent hands and route running, Boldin doesn't have the burst or top end speed that make Johnson such a devastating weapon. Boldin's about the 10th best receiver in football. Johnson's in the top 3 and might be number 1. Heck, Johnson made two pro-bowls while catching passes from David Carr.

73
by D :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 4:57pm

There's no question about it, based on last year's production Johnson was the superior receiver. (In my opinion he was the second best offensive player in the NFL behind Drew Brees). That said over the course of their careers there's just not that much difference. Boldin has the edge in every traditional category (TDs, rec. yard, td/g, rec/g, y/g) and holds the NFL record for most receiving yards per game. In terms of DYAR (including rushing), Johnson holds the edge career 1207 to 1063 or .7474 DYAR/per game. This works out to about a 12 DYAR per 16 game difference, or about 1 point per season. Statistically speaking, Johnson's only real advantage over Boldin is health (though given Boldin's physical approach to the game this could become a major difference as he ages). And while Boldin has a superior supporting cast in the passing game, Houston has usually had an edge in the running game. As for making the pro-bowl with David Carr, Boldin made the pro-bowl with Jeff Blake throwing him passes the year before the team drafted Fitzgerald.

75
by Mr Shush :: Sat, 04/18/2009 - 6:27pm

Wow, I hadn't realised just how similar their career statistics were (though I think that in reality the YPC similarity is a result of the wierd way in which Johnson was used in 2005 and 2006 as the David Carr experiment fell apart - he is in truth probably a 14-14.5ypc guy). That said, I would still say that the context in terms of supporting cast justifies seeing Johnson as the superior player over their careers to date, not just the last two seasons. Boldin had two years of rotten quarterbacking to start his career, but has since had three competent and one outstanding seasons of play back there. Johnson didn't get a real quarterback until his fifth season, since when he has averaged more than 95y/g. Fitzgerald was drafted a year after Boldin, and has been elite since his second season; Boldin has had at least three seasons in which he was not his team's primary receiver. Johnson didn't get any competent complementary receiver until the emergence of Walter and development of Daniels in 2007. And while Houston's running game has generally been better than Arizona's, it's hardly scared anyone, or forced a lot of safeties into the box. Johnson has been the focus of every defense he's faced since he entered the league. He's been double covered on far more plays than not every season he's played. The same just isn't true of Boldin.

78
by D :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 12:44am

I guess I should clarify my position a bit. When I saw "best" used in the context of this article I sort of understood it as "most productive" and since they were basically even in terms of statistical value I figured they were equally worthy of the "best player" designation. That said, I get were you are coming from, and agree Johnson is the more talented receiver and by the end of their careers will be regarded as the better and more productive player if for no other reason than he will probably be healthier. (If I had a choice between the two going forward I would take Johnson).

49
by Staubach12 :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 1:53am

2003 was also the year that Tony Romo went undrafted and signed with the Cowboys ($30,000 signing bonus). Funny to think that he and Henson wound up competing against each other for a roster spot. Henson's inability to beat out Romo for the backup job was a big surprise, and many in Dallas thought that Parcells was just playing mind games with Henson.

50
by Still Alive (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 1:54am

All I will say is that while I disagree with some of the things in he article strongly, some of the suggestions people are making are twice as ridiculous, and betray severe homerism.

52
by BigCheese :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 2:38am

Such as?

- Alvaro

57
by VarlosZ :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 10:51am

This is a great annual piece, but I think it would be particularly interesting to go back and review the draft day grades from Kiper et al. and how the conventional wisdom on the day after the draft matches up with what actually happened. Of course, this would probably double or triple the length of the article, as you'd have to go team-by-team as well as position-by-position. But, then, would anyone mind if this article was longer?

60
by Joe T. (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 11:23am

A massive undertaking no doubt, but I agree, that would make for one hell of an article.

64
by Jimmy :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:08pm

Wouldn't this end up grading the pundits? I would imagine that most of them would be shown up to be complete frauds over and over again. Imagine if one of them was hitting homerun after homerun and any team that had fillowed his draft boards would have built a dynasty.

61
by Chris (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 11:41am

Giant's fan here.

David Tyree in the late rounds isn't just a good pick because of " the catch", he was one of the best special teams gunners in the NFL for years. You want "hidden yardage", David Tyree was a special teams stud. He filled in well as WR depth ( a seattle game a few years ago), but drafting a pro bowl special teamer in the late rounds was well worth it.

I never really thought about it, but David Diehl was actually a very good pick considering his durability. People usually measure draft picks in games started ( and you can't do much better than Diehl did). He can get beat by speed rushers, and when Luke retired nobody wanted him to kick out to the outside, but considering how many games he's started, and how healthy he's been, it was an outstanding pick when you think about it. Having healthy lineman play together has a synergy effect and Diehl has been a great pick.

When the 2003 draft came around, I was shocked to watch Terrell Suggs fall. He was a big time player and I remember watching some of those ASU games. The guy ran I believe a 4.6 and change at the combine, and people thought he wasn't as fast/athletic enough to be a 3-4 OLB. Ozzie just loves taking value that slips in the draft, and the Ravens do well in drafting defensive talent. He sliped so much and got to be plugged into that Ravens system that I thought he was such a steal at that point in the first round.

I didn't really see a lot of Justin Fargas love, but it seems that people are warming up to him now. If you ignore the stats, and look at how hard he runs, and how many yards he picks up for what he has... just trust your eyes, he looks pretty good.

I remember when injured Willis got picked a lot of people were talking what a smart/dumb move Buffalo made. Picking a guy that was going to be basicaly injured for 1 season. Was he a top 5 pick picked in the late first round, or was he tampered goods. I think Mcghee, and Suggs were two everybody had wild opinions on back then. Suggs with the (poor workout) and injured Wills has people calling the Ravens/Bills genius/stupid.

I must admit that I wasn't a huge Carson Palmer fan but I'm generally skeptic of Quarterbacks. I didn't watch a lot of USC games but I didn't see him as being the next Elway or anything and I felt like he sort of easted into that #1 spot the way Stafford is this year... well, he was the Heisman and there isn't anybody else dominating out there to be the #1 pick... I started to believe when I saw him throwing some of those real hard outs, and the point where I gave up and believed in Palmer 100% is when I saw him in a 4th Q comeback of the Ravens where he throw somehing like 377 yards and put on a clinic.

Those 2002-2003 Miami teams were so talented it wasn't even funny. Were they "the best college teams ever"? Bad PI call withstanding and not winning the title the title, Who knows, I wasn't a big Ken Doresy fan, but the overall rosters (QB not included) might have been the most talented ever.

63
by Jimmy :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:04pm

From memory Suggs' combine time in the forty was a 4.86 or so. I think a lot of people were expecting him to really turn up the intensity for his Pro day after a poor combine and he didn't really show up there either. I can't recall the details but the guy had been a sack machine his senior year (something daft like 25 sacks) and probably felt he had shown enough where it really mattered, but with Kiper & Company's shrill caterwauls echoing around the hall team after team passed on him to take guys like Dwayne Robertson and John Sullivan.

65
by Sean McCormick :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:12pm

Chris,

I was at ASU for grad school while Suggs was playing, so I got to see him live for every home game that final season- he was an absolute monster coming off the edge, and he was able to sustain his pass rush into the fourth quarter. Everyone expected Arizona to take him at six, but then the workout happened and Suggs' value went all over the place and the Cardinals ended up bailing out altogether and moving down so they could take Calvin Pace and Bryant Johnson. (Pace, as it turned out, was a pretty good player, too, but it took Arizona moving to a 3-4 before they realized it.)

As for Warren, he is a terrific player, though not quite as dominant as Williams. What makes him so interesting is that he was considered the last of the top tier DTs in that first round group. There was a lot of jockeying between the Jets and Patriots, who each needed a DT, and with New England picking right in front of the Jets, it seemed possible that they would end up shutting the Jets out of the market. Then there were rumors that New England was going to move up for Dewayne Robertson, and they psyched out Terry Bradway to the point where he traded up to 4 instead. The Jets took Robertson, the Pats stayed put and took Warren, and in the end they got the much better player for a much better value. It's a pretty good rule of thumb that when you are looking at a position group that is strong, you are better off staying put or moving down to select the last guy in the group with a top grade than you are moving up to select your pick of the litter.

68
by steelberger (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 12:49pm

"Best player: Nnamdi Asomugha, 31st overall to the Raiders. With all due respect to Polamalu, who is a superlative player, a corner who can't be thrown on is worth more than a safety. Asomugha was considered something of a reach when the Raiders took him, but now he's arguably the best defensive player in the league."

I really disagree with this statement. Asomugha is certainly a great player, but Polamalu's "worth" in the Steelers' system is quite different than a run-of-the-mill safety.

Not to mention Polamlu is a 5 time pro bowler, 2 time all pro, has 17 INT's, 61 PD's, 7 forced fumbles, 2 defensive TD's, and 7 sacks...all of which are superior numbers to NA.

That combined with some of the absolutely freakishly amazing plays that Troy has made over the years makes him clearly the best choice in my (completely unbiased?) opinion.

69
by Chris (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 1:25pm

Jimmy - You could be right, I thought it was closer to a high 4.6, close to a 4.7, but for a guy that was that fast on the outside, it was slower than what you would have thought ( and allowed the Ravens to pick him up late 1st round.

Sean- It must have been exciting. He had the most attention on an outside pass rusher than I can remember since Simeon Rice and it seemed like he would for sure be a top 10 pick, but that 40 time cost him...

I think it's interesting that you highlighted his pass rushing endurance. How often do you see the DE's really get much less pass rush at the end of games when they were tired.

That's what I was saying, I think usually there is a "norm value" for most prospects, but then you have guys where the value is all over the place. Some people thought Willis Mcghee was a steal, some thought he was the next injured KiJana Carter. Willis & Suggs had a lot of conflicting opinions.

That really was a very DB friendly draft...
I think the Bengals, Colts, Giants, Raiders did alright.

72
by AlanSP :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 4:11pm

Here is the ESPN blurb from John Clayton back in 2003, after Suggs had his second on-campus workout after running similar times at his pro day. I'm not sure if he actually ran at the combine (NFL Draft Scout doesn't list a combine 40 time for him, which is usually because a player didn't run).

74
by TomKelso :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 10:12pm

Terrell Suggs was picked 10th by the Ravens -- it was Boller who was the late 1st round selection, after Ozzie, in a rare outcome for him, got fleeced by the Patriots into overpaying for the number 19 slot.

70
by EaglesFan (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 3:02pm

And according to Wikipedia, here were some notable undrafted players from 03....

Atlanta Falcons Brendon Ayanbadejo Linebacker UCLA
Dallas Cowboys Keith Davis Safety Sam Houston
Dallas Cowboys Tony Romo Quarterback Eastern Illinois
Indianapolis Colts Gary Brackett Linebacker Rutgers
Kansas City Chiefs Lawrence Tynes Placekicker Troy
Philadelphia Eagles Roderick Hood Cornerback Auburn
Philadelphia Eagles Greg Lewis Wide Receiver Illinois
New York Jets Brandon Moore Offensive Guard Illinois
San Diego Chargers Kris Dielman Offensive Guard Indiana
San Diego Chargers Antonio Gates Tight End Kent State
Tampa Bay Buccaneers Earnest Graham Running Back Florida

79
by Bobman :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 3:17am

Gary Brackett has to be one of the most underrated LBs in the league. I felt that after 2007 he was truly snubbed by Pro Bowl voters. Annually a leading tackler and the D captain on a D that has been quite good the past few years (particularly in scoring). And when he missed the SD playoff game with a broken leg last season, his fellow 03 UDFA Mister Gates had a pretty productive afternoon... damn him. Nice UDFA pickup after the draft--phenomenal value. And his road has not been easy--IIRC he had three family members die in his first two years in the league. That's a lot to dump on a 23 year-old kid. Not sure Colts fans would trade him for just about anybody.

71
by Chris (not verified) :: Fri, 04/17/2009 - 3:13pm

Major props to Dallas & San Diego for the undrafted talent they brought in. Those were like 1st round picks !

76
by Special J :: Sun, 04/19/2009 - 10:24pm

With all due respect to Polamalu, who is a superlative player, a corner who can't be thrown on is worth more than a safety.

Really? You're ready to go that far? I think it's a pretty tenuous leap of logic to go from "Asomugha isn't thrown on" to "he can't be thrown on." From the games I've watched, it's looked like teams have thrown away from Asomugha because they'd rather throw to one of the guys the rest of the Raiders' secondary leaves wide open.

I think before we break out the anointing oils, we'd either need to see him anchor a better pass defense, or get access to some coach's film so we can see him for longer than it takes for him to shadow his guy 10 feet downfield.

80
by bengt (not verified) :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 7:57am

Even if coaches' film shows that Asomugha has the best coverage skills ever (and I don't doubt that it's possible he has), what that basically means is that the football game is played as a ten-on-ten. The Raiders' second-to-eleventh best players are probably even worse wrt their opponents, so having Asomugha could even be a disadvantage.

86
by jebmak :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 2:43pm

I don't think that it is quite like that, because usually a #1 reciever gets the attention of more than one player on the defense. So, to use your example, most defenses play 9 vs 10 after accounting for the #1 reciever. Asomugha allows the Raiders to play 10 vs 10.

87
by bengt (not verified) :: Tue, 04/21/2009 - 4:26am

Fair point. So when the Raiders play a team with a #1 WR who is so good as to demand permanent double coverage, Asomugha will likely be able to contain him in single coverage, giving the Raiders a free player extra. I have no idea how often that is the case. Is 'double coverage' recorded by the game charting project?

81
by Theo :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 11:43am

Carson Palmer:
he warmed the bench his rookie year, then played like a rookie in his second season.
Then played like a pro bowler for 2 years, and played well in the next, then got injured.
That's 3 good seasons out of 6. The Bengals have one winning season in that stretch.

He's the best of this QB class, but that makes the class even worse.

82
by MP (not verified) :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 12:27pm

According to the Boston Globe this morning, since 2000 (when Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli started doing the drafting) the Patriots have drafted 77 players, of whom 42 are still in the NFL and 27 are still with the Patriots. Is that better than average? Anybody know how to compare team's draft performance over time?

88
by steelberger (not verified) :: Thu, 04/23/2009 - 2:44pm

Here is a good place to start.

http://www.pro-football-reference.com/draft/

89
by steelberger (not verified) :: Thu, 04/23/2009 - 2:47pm

But I think a much easier way to determine draft success would be to find out the % of each team's roster that was drafted by that team.

83
by MP (not verified) :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 12:27pm

According to the Boston Globe this morning, since 2000 (when Bill Belichick and Scott Pioli started doing the drafting) the Patriots have drafted 77 players, of whom 42 are still in the NFL and 27 are still with the Patriots. Is that better than average? Anybody know how to compare team's draft performance over time?

85
by MilkmanDanimal :: Mon, 04/20/2009 - 2:43pm

All I can say is I hadn't thought about how comparably crappy the 2003 draft class was. Compared to, say, 2004, just look at the top half of the first round:

http://www.drafthistory.com/years/2004.html

The worst players in the top half of the first round of the 2004 draft would have to be Robert Gallery (who has improved greatly as a guard, at least), DeAngelo Hall, Michael Clayton (one good year), and Reggie Williams (big flop). You've got Eli, Rivers, and Roethlisberger, Larry Fitzgerald, Tommie Harris, and a number of other high-quality starters in that group. 2003?

http://www.drafthistory.com/years/2003.html

Yuck.

90
by bigsnack (not verified) :: Sat, 04/25/2009 - 2:10pm

Re NA versus Troy

My take (biased I admit) is that NA is one is a long series of shutdown corners (e.g. Deon, Champ, Asante etc...) but there has never been another player DB like troy: extremely disruptive to a team's pass defense both dropping back in coverage (PDs and Ints), blitzing (though he does that less now) while at the same time being an absolute demon in run support and even a difference maker going over the top to stop 4 + 1 QB sneaks. IMHO, you're letting the CB v S issue get in the way of appreciating a generational type player who has been the defining element of the best defense in football since he was drafted.

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by WoolfolksUncle (not verified) :: Thu, 03/10/2011 - 4:44pm

Naming Andre as you did in your column is irresponsible reporting. Your mentioning of raw should apply to your single comparison to how many interceptions as your only statistical data to which you are implying. Did you know Andre was second in tackles on the team until his injuries each of his first three years? Did you know that he had season ending injuries midway through both of his first two seasons, both from mishaps from his own teammates. 2003 - high ankle sprain required rods inserted in his ankle as well as reconstruction of his ankle. 2004 required screws in his wrist (wrist was totally dislocated - another definition for broke off hand). Both injuries happened during special teams plays when he made the tackle and a Titans player dived in helmet first, once hitting the ankle and the next year the wrist. His 3rd season he played well in the first 9 games, until he pulled a hamstring in game 9. He had one interception, one forced fumble in which he layed out Jamal Lewis (featured on you got jacked up) and a hit on Todd Heap that was also featured on the (you just got jacked up series). What was even more notable that year is he was second in tackles to Keith Bulluck until his injury happened (game 9 - 10th week). Most of those tackles came against running backs, because the Titans downbeaten D-Line and linebackers couldn't stop the run. The pass rush was equally terrible, so of course pass defense is affected by poor pass rush. His fourth season, he only played in 2 games, due to the Titans starting Reynaldo Hill who totally bombed out worse than Andre ever did (toast on top of toast). Once a player hits Jeff Fisher's doghouse, they don't get out. Jeff never liked him (because he was a Floyd Reese choice) and never looked his way again after his hamstring. He was ready the fourth season, shined in preseason and overlooked for the season. A signature game would be game 9 of his third season and the last game of that same season. Game 9 - he held Larry Fitzgerald to 9 yards on 2 catches, with 3 PDs during that time all in the 2nd qtr. Mid 3rd qtr he pulled the hamstring. Fitzgerald proceeded to tourch Hill after that for 82 more yards and 2 TDs...... Bottom line, there are a lot more players that did not produce at all and this tag .... this mean, vindictive tag of disgruntled Titans fans is sad and should be stricken ever from this text.