Philly isn't the worst team in the league. Objectively, according to wins and losses (who they've beaten and who they've lost to) I have then ranked 13th, ahead of teams like San Diego, KC, Tampa Bay, Miami... although the graph could change after tomorrow's game. (See the link at my name.) This loss really hurt, though. I can't wait until Washington actually starts getting what's coming to them. They're ranked pretty high right now but it just seems like they're balancing precariously on a ledge. Plus, I want them low so Denver gets a good draft pick!!

re #290, I think you've got it right, and of course it's all interconnected. with the special teams doing better last year, the defence always had more chances to go for the pick, so could afford to be more aggressive. Ongoing, too, I think the key issue on the offence might actually be Tight End. LJ Smith isn't that good a blocker, which probably influences the run game a lot. Tight end is a critical part of the Eagles' passing game, as well. Every game the eagles have lost this year, he's had a significantly low number of receptions. That says to me, stop LJ Smith, and you have a good chance at stopping the Eagles offence from marching down the field. and now, well, he might have a concussion. go go Stephen Spach!

tunesmith,

Love your beatpaths.

What would it look like if you only used road wins?

I know many commentators like ripping on TO (and deservedly so), but sometimes it seems a tad hollow. After the Sunday night game was over they put on Salisbury to analyze how the Philly offense did without TO. He showed a couple catches, and then stated that the Eagles don't need TO, they are fine without him, as part of his ongoing diatribe that anything other than banning him for life, and deporting him from the country would be ludicrous.

Now, it may well be that the right thing to do is to do a Keyshawn on him. However, whatever analysis you use, the Eagles scored 10 fricking points. They do miss him on offense, no matter how you spin it. They sure could have used his production. They don't want everything else and that's fine, they decided its not worth it for now. I just don't think Sean was being objective in his analysis.

Re: Eagles didn't miss TO

I don't know what Sean Salisbury was smoking. How come he didn't break down the Eagles near the goal line? None of their receivers got open. They clearly missed TO at the end of the game.

matt and andrew,
Agree with you both totally. You can get away with "average" targets/runners in between the 20's. Once in the red zone you need a T.O type playmaker. Or else 10 points is all you get.

Philly has a huge dilema and I think they played the situation wrong. If they were gonna make an exception to their normal policy to bring T.O in last year they should have continued to make exceptions for him or release him. This is a guy that you can't have it both ways with. Do things his way and he produces. Play hardball and get sabotaged. Why bring in T.O if you aren't going to treat him with kid gloves. As a skins fan, I can only say how happy I am that the Eagles completely botched this move.

The single biggest issue this year is McNabb’s injury. The Eagles made a huge mistake by not getting McNabb’s groin fixed before the bye and chancing it for a few weeks afterward.

No. No, no, no, no, no. McNabb injured is better than McMahon healthy - I have no doubt of this, because Reid sees it every week in practice.

McNabb getting the surgery does not guarantee him coming back for the season at all. In fact, it's unlikely. Two out of the three guys on the Eagles team who have had sports hernias other than McNabb had the surgery and it didn't fix it - Johnson and Owens (the one where it did work was Sheldon Brown).

As a Skins fan, I think you should be more happy about the fact that Brunell played out-of-his-mind good last night.

Pat, McNabb injured cannot effectively run the Eagles offense. It's being proven any way you look at it, unless you want to use 300 yard passing games as your only measuring stick.

My point is this: the Eagles may be able to stumble through the season with an injured McNabb and back into a playoff spot. In the playoffs, they will not stand a chance. The competition is too good. I view this as playing to keep the score close, not playing to win. Get the surgery after week 5 (when the wheels were clearly coming off) rest up till week 10 or 11 and hope to play .500 ball in the interim. I hate to disagree with a coach who has had such success, but the notion that Reid knows best because he sees it in practice everyday is flawed.

Get the surgery after week 5 (when the wheels were clearly coming off) rest up till week 10 or 11 and hope to play .500 ball in the interim.

The six-week recovery time for a sports hernia is complete bull. In fact, rushing the recovery can sometimes force more surgery.

That's my point. McNabb gets surgery and he's done for the year - in Week 6, Week 3, or Week 1.

I don't buy that McMahon/Detmer can run the offense better than McNabb. McNabb looked pretty darned good last night, although the failures inside the red zone have to be worked on. Inside the 20, run the damn ball. Field goals are better than nothing.

There's no guarantee that McNabb comes back. And injured McNabb is better than whoever else they have. I don't dispute either of those points.

But, for a team that's been as good as Philly, there are only two outcomes this season - playing in the Superbowl, or not. And at this point, getting the bye is very unlikely anyway. So, unless you think that injured McNabb is likely to win three road games and get you there, it's probably better to put him under the knife and cross your fingers.

And the idea that TO is not important to their offense is ridiculous, really. Subjectively, he could be the only WR in the league that can take over a game the way a QB or RB can.

As a 'skins fan, I love that Brunell played well while simultaneously managing to not put up great fantasy numbers against me. Quite a trick, really.

andrew #304, james #306:

The Eagles offense with TO only scored 10 points against Atlanta, 13 against San Diego, 3 against Dallas. Excluding the Champ Bailey/Mike Shanahan gift-wrap of a 91 yard TD, they only put up 14 on Denver.

A bigger problem last night than TO missing was that LJ Smith knocked himself out with a big hit, and thus was unavailable as a red zone target. Since 2004, McNabb has typically thrown only to Owens, LJ Smith, or Westbrook when in the redzone (25 of 32 TD passes), or McNabb or Levens ran it in (7 of 10 rushing TD's). Owens was suspended, Smith knocked out, Levens was not resigned this year, McNabb is not running, and Westbrook inexplicably was not called for action by the coach. Had LJ been in the game, either he or Westbrook probably would have scored.

Also in 2003, the Eagles typically came out of the backfield on the goal line, with 33 of 39 touchdowns coming from Westbrook, Staley, Buckhalter or McNabb rushing (23 TD's in total), or Westbrook, Staley, Buckhalter, or Ritchie receiving (10 of 17 TD passes). That's 82.5% of TD scoring coming from a backfield that no longer exists.

You have to go back to 2002 to find what the Eagles offense is about to start looking like, and even there, you have to remove McNabb's running threat.

I am a Falcons fan but do
agree with Aaron on the fumbles issue. Maybe it has to do with what position player is fumbling. Do quarterback fumbles statistically get recovered by the offense more often than a receiver or running back fumble? Maybe this explains why atlanta recovers so many of there offensive fumbles (Vick's fumbles). P.S The falcons are the best team in the NFC.

Adam #238:

Please keep it up with your parodies of the three stooges. This is probably my favorite part of SNF now.

Response to #289
I do beleive that Vick is a much better QB than DVOA shows. Football does not lend itself to statistics as well as Baseball does. There is just too many intangibles. For instance, just the threat of Vick running does so much for ATL's offense. Or that Atlanta came out flat against Seattle because an emotional Monday night win against the Eagles combined with a short week and traveling all the way to the west coast.

So, unless you think that injured McNabb is likely to win three road games and get you there, it’s probably better to put him under the knife and cross your fingers.

I don't think McNabb is likely to win three road games.

I think their defense is still capable of doing it. Or, at least, I think the Eagles think their defense is still capable of doing that.

Freddie: DVOA only shows that Vick is a bad passer, not that he's a bad QB.

Although right now he's so bad as a passer that he's not even making up for it with running. That part should be evident by the fact that his touchdown to turnover ratio, even including rushing touchdowns, is only 1:1 (8/8).

Just had to mention that Mr. Kriedler's article on ESPN about the rarity of games with as much meaning as IND/NE. While it is true that such games are rare, I think the article is a joke. Basically it sounds as though he is bored with football and is not happy there is no spectacular matchup every week. He seems to think that in the past there were a lot more meaningful games, but then dismisses games like this weeks KC/OAK becuase in "the teams are not among the elite". Newsflash Mr. Kriedler, even in the 70s and 80s there were only a few teams which were elite in any given year. That is what what being elite is. I doubt the amount of high quality matchups has changed over the years given his strict definition. In fact with more games and more teams one would expect a slight increase in the number of high quality games. If he cannot get excited for your standard division rivalry or home field advantage deciding games then perhaps he should stop tyring to be a football fan. Sometimes people tire of things, I stopped watching the NFL from maybe 95-99 for instance.

Anyway the article just seemed completely worthless to me and I am sorry I watsed 5 mins reading it.

Oh and to keep it on topic GO EDGE! I will take IND to win but not cover :)

re: Colts-Pats

Even banged up, the Pats defense is better than the Colts defenses of 2003 and 2004. Even banged up, the Pats Off. line is better than than the Colts Off. line of 2003, 2004 and 2005 (especially 2004 when the Colts had 3 starters miss a number of games with injuries).

stan - DVOA would completely disagree with you on the Pats defense this year, which has been utterly abysmal. They are allowing yards and points just as badly as the Colts defense last year, and generating almost no turnovers, to boot. The Pats offensive line, this year, is hardly "much better" than the Colts, except perhaps when the three starters were out. The Pats are playing two rookies on the outside, two guys that aren't exactly high caliber players, and have a great center. Brady has been pressured quite a bit this year, and there have been no holes for the running game. You can't exactly say the same thing for the Colts, this year or last.

The Pats defense of 2005 is like the Colts defense of 2004 with almost no pass rush. They will be playing Indy without Dillon, Faulk, Light, Seymour, Harrison, Gay, Poole, Pass, McGuinest is questionable, I think, and there are a number of lower caliber players that are injured, too.

Frankly, I don't think they stand a chance, and I picked them in the football pool.

I'm a big Pats fan, but a Pats loss earns me $220 or so. Go Colts! D:

Tonight I am going to count how many times "Tedy Bruschi" is said during the actual game broadcast.

I should have done it last week in his first game back, but i'm not quick enough.

Tonight i'm prepared.

Michael Irvin and Tom Jackson each said his name two seperate times in one sentence.

This is going to RAWK!

Someone should have pointed the MNF production crew at the Brady-Manning thread... HUMPS!

Is it just my imagination, or did Madden just quote Ric Flair? Although he left one part out. John, it goes like this...

To be the man... WHOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOOO!!!!!!! you gotta beat the man!

That first drive was a perfect example of how Manning just pads his stats. Everyone knwos you run near the goal line, but Manning would rather get another TD pass.

After watching Brady against the Dolphins last year, how could Madden just say he is the calmest thing you have ever seen in the pocket. Against Miami, he was the worst QB anyone has ever seen.

Apparantly stan has never seen Criag Krenzel.

Cause he doesn't want to get punched in the nuts?

How does a 325 lb nosetackle fail to tackle a running back?

I thought that was a bad spot. Indy really should go for it here regardless, unless they're really confident in Smith's ability to pin inside the 5. But since he punts like 12 times a year, how much can they really know about him?

What is that thing on the field near the sidelines at the 48 yardline?

It's a lighthouse

OK. Um, why do they have a lighthouse on the field?

I hate to say it, but Bruschi doesn't look good at all out there. He's way to tentative.

333: Same reason they have one as part of the stadium. Lighthouses are a symbol of New England.

Re: 333

Duh, because they're the PATRIOTS.

Why the heck is Samuel celebrating that hit on Dallas Clark? Note to Asante: You gave up a first down on that play.

Agreed on Bruschi. There have been a few plays where he's been too hesitant to take on James, or has gotten blocked too easily. It looks like he's reading the plays well, but isn't quite able to get there or hold his ground. At least it's limited the three-headed hype monster to two heads so far, though.

Is it too late to join the Dwayne Starks fan club?

fnor: You can be the charter member.

Moral of the first quarter + (and KC yesterday): it pays to have balls! Both teams score TDs here after going for it on 4th and short.

How many guys now have a Panthers-specific NFL fantasy? Too bad they probably won't reshoot that commercial for the HBO NFL show.

You think TMQ is going to love this game?

Madden never was a big screen guy? Would he have been allowed to call screens while coaching for Al Davis?

It seems like if you've got a team with a nasty pass rush, you've got third and long with two rookies on one side of the line, and you think the D line is gonna be rushing extra hard, a screen is a pretty good call. If nothing else, it might slow them down a little bit later in the game.

Wasn't Scott pulled for excessive suckitude, not injury?

Not a good pass by Manning. He throws it so bad when his feet aren't set. Bad mechanics = bad pass.

And nice catch by Vrabel. Maybe they should think of using him as a receiver in short yardage or something.

It was nice of the Patriots and Colts to agree to play without corners.

who's down by contact? must be david

Wow, if they call Dillon down by contact that might be the worst call of the year so far.

Wow. If they ruled Dillon down it's about the worst call ever.

I don't think that spike/pass by David was going to be allowed to advance the ball for Indy though.

screw the rules! Get two balls, have the entirety of each team on the field at the same time! Then we can have a real fight!

Ok, that's way more believable.

Yea, if David wasn't downed by contact, it would be an illegal forward pass.

If David hadn't been down, what would the rule have been on that David spike/throw? I imagine it would be an illegal forward lateral, I guess.

Well, David can throw the ball pretty far at least.

Hey, look at that halftime show! There's no way I'll change the channel or take a dump or anything and risk missing that!

Quick moving first half. Guess that's what you get when you have long drives, few incompletions stopping the clock

Only in the NFL could a QB fumble the ball 10 yards behind him and still have a "perfect" rating.

Proof Manning is better: His MNF picture is ANIMATED!

think that was catch, but you have to review that!

Wow. Great catch. He was definitely in.

I guess it's appororiate that with all the talk of Manning & Brady, this game will come down to Dillon's fumble.

Tim McGraw...he haunts my dreams. Do you think he has a team of Nashville starving songwriters glued to the Ticket's Sunday Mix to come up with this. Also, is it just me or is it nearly impossible to take Jimmy Kimmel seriously in a suit and tie?

Tim McGraw? I was listening to Shock G's solo CD. What did I miss?

I think the Patriots have lost their swagger. That is clearly what has happened.

The problem is they replaced thier swagger with strut.

Cato June had good coverage on those last 2 plays. No wonder he has five picks.

They're sitting Dwayne Starks. About 9 weeks too late.

PM underthrew that by 5+ yards.

Who takes Jimmy Kimmel seriously ever?

I like how refs explain things now. "That man did not get off the field."

As Tedy Bruschi gets dragged for 3 yards after hitting Edge. I suspect the only measurement in which he is playing well is the key ESPN statistics of "hits".

Can you hear that scratching? That's me writing "Game Over" in my notebook.

I've been hating on Duane Starks as much as the next Pats fan, but Marvin Harrison is doing a pretty good number on Asante Samuel tonight. I guess it is Marvin Harrison, but still. Of ocurse, not like Starks is doing great on Wayne.

Mike Stone(the strong safety flavor the week apparently) is not that good. Not sure whether he's worse than Arturo Freeman, last week's warm body.

By my count, Indy has faced 3rd down 12 times thus far.

Pats have stopped them twice. One of those times the Colts managed to convert the 4th down.

I haven't counted, but most of the Colts third down plays have been third and short.

That explanation was good, it was simple, direct, and generally said the ref knows what he's doing and has control. If all refs took charge like that, they'd be a lot better off.

Compare that with the ref from the Baltimore game yesterday. Every time I see that guy, his crew botches some big calls, and he gives ridiculously long and non-confident explanations that just make you think he has no clue. If the crew is going to be wrong (and that one often is), they should at least try to sell it as if they know what they're doing. Fool us into believing you have a clue and just happened to miss one! Don't give us wishy-washy crap and expect us to buy it.

Aaron,

You need to figure out away to have PAR and DVOA account for first downs and yardage gained by QB IQ. Manning just picked up a key first down by forcing the Pats into a penalty.

Of course, since he's the only one who regularly does that, you might have to make a separate category just for him.

Trogdor: And that is why Ed Hoculi is awesome. That and he looks like he'll come to your house and beat you up if you disrespect his officiating.

380: Would that also count QBs who get the other team to jump offsides with a quick or silent count?

And the pats pull back to witthin 14! Ummm yay? Is it too early to onsides kick?

Way to go, B. You're fired.

Guess not.

wow, good call 383! Bad call Belichick

383: Apparently not.

378: I noticed the same thing about the third and shorts. These third downs show why Indy is dominating NE. Just went through the game stats and it looks like they've had five third downs of six yards or longer on about 11 or 12 third downs.

But here's a hint John Madden. If the announcers are discussing whether it's a good time to try it, and if B suggests they might try it, and if everyone who's watching at least thought it, it probably isn't a 'surprise' onside kick.

Re 384: Good thing my contract is guaranteed.

379: Trogdor, I was curious enough to go check the BAL/CIN gamebook to see who you were ripping. Whaddya know: It's Jeff Triplette!

And stan, you can take that gushing post over to the irrational Brady/Manning board.

Starks is out?! But... the fan club!!

(sorry, this game is painful.)

Yeah... that lighthouse is DUMB.

382,

good point. Sure, add those free yards as well. And since other QBs are good at that, it would be worth the effort to measure.

Let's face it, these yards are valuable. In measuring a QBs value, why not include them?

Oh, that's Triplette. That would be why every time I see him, I know the game has been poorly officiated, and seems on the edge of losing control entirely. How does he still have a job?

The worst guy I've ever seen for drawing people offsides was Elway. It was so aggravating, he was good for at least one or two a game. Granted, it was largely because they let him get away with a massive headbob, which is supposed to be illegal, but whatever. Did I mention I can't stand Elway?

It looks more like a juicer than a lighthouse

Let's hear it for the Colts sad sack special teams.
CRAPPY KOs from their kickoff specialist but sweet coverage. They might even climb a slot or two this week, knock wood.

I think it is too early for the Colts to be going loose pass defense like this.

389: since I've got nothing better to do, I just checked the play by play. At this point NE has stopped Indy 3 times on third down - on 3-13, 3-11 (after which indy converted on 4-1) and most recently on 3-7.

Of the other third down plays, you've got: 3-1, 3-2, 3-1, 3-9, 3-6, 3-1, 3-10, 3-2, 3-6, and 3-4.

So what's that tell us? NE can't stop New England on third down, obviously... but at least half of those were 3 and short, which I guess means NE can't stop Indy at all.

4 down territory. Yay!!!!

Re: 398 et al.

I always thought that was supposed to be a razor.

What was that about Wayne's hands?

Best thing about turnover on downs - no COMMERCIALS!!!

We need another 3 touchdowns.

Is 3 out of 5 (60%) really not very effective at long passes? I'd think that's a good completion percentage at that distance.

I haven't critically been watching the game, but everytime I look up, the Colts are running a come back route for 7-10 yards.

That's not a lighthouse. It looks like a wrench or a stylized razor. But it's not a lighthouse.

Why are they New England anyway? It's not the New England Bruins or Red Sox. Maybe the team just fell in love with the Patriot guy hiking the football and decided to enhance that aspect by calling themselves New England. It doesn't jive with the rest of professional sports.

Ooops... wayne... oops...

Another drop.

aaaaaaaaaaaaand there's another third down conversion. Shouldn't this be a candidate for TMQ stat of the week?

Are the Colts not aware that Nick Kaczur is a rookie? Why are they stunting Freeney to the other side so much?

Because they double team him, and every time he stunted (aside from a block.. no one there.. reciever) they wasted a blocker.

It's a time for free man give and take. It didn't work, not a bad plan though.

And I can't beileve it took so long for the Pats to depend on their TEs.

It's not like Bob Sanders can actually bring one of them down.

A razor.. how cute.

And Harrison is playing with a friggin cast?

Ooo, so is this the point where it's bush-league to try to score? I'm eagerly awaiting Manning's glare at Bellichick.

And Harrison is playing with a friggin cast?

And he's still an all-pro reciever.

Ooo, so is this the point where it’s bush-league to try to score? I’m eagerly awaiting Manning’s glare at Bellichick.

It's a 3 score game, I don't think we can talk bush league yet, but thanks for the flamebait.

Gay held Wayne there.

Just a reminder for the Fire Mike Vanderjagt petition.

Can't kick kickoffs, and he makes short field goals look exciting.

Earlier in the broadcast, Michaels quoted Manning as saying the receiver he feels most comfortable with is Wayne. There must really be something weird between PM and Marvin.

#416: It's not flamebait. Obviously the Pats can't stop the Colts. They're way down and should be mailing it in, right?

This isn't about anything against the colts, it's about the idiotic argument that a team should just pack it in.

418 - because every dramatic Pats comeback drive ends in a FG. There's a big difference between 17 and 20, make them score that TD

MDS: Even a touchdown doesn't put you up more than 3 scores, unless you go for two.

That being said, the field position thing is entirely correct, and I agree.

Earlier in the broadcast, Michaels quoted Manning as saying the receiver he feels most comfortable with is Wayne. There must really be something weird between PM and Marvin.

There might be something weird ... what a throw by Brady..

There might be something weird with PM and Marvin, but if I had two excellent recievers, and 1 faced the second best CB most of the time, I'd probably favor them as well.

Because it forces the Patriots to score 3 TD's to win instead of 2 TD's plus a FG to tie?

another fg makes a difference

I hope no one thinks Manning is the reason Indy is winning. Any qb can win when he's got a workhorse back who carries 25 times in the first three quarters and a D that holds the other team to 14 points.

This game was over about 20 minutes ago.

I'll have my thoughts on the game posted in a few minutes.

This game was over about 20 minutes ago.

I’ll have my thoughts on the game posted in a few minutes.

STOP JINXING MY COLTS

So does bellichick call for the onside kick again....

Re: 426 - Brian Billick is on the line looking for one of those 'any QBs'.

patriots could use some crowd noise and a turnover right now

Hey, what do you think are the odds that no replays of that TD were shown in the stadium until after the extra point was kicked? I know if I was in charge of scoreboard replays and my team benefited from a close call, I wouldn't replay it until after the next play.

I hope no one thinks [Indy's defense] is the reason Indy is winning. Any [defense] can win when [it's] got a workhorse back who carries 25 times in the first three quarters and [an offense that's put up 34 points].

Hey everybody, the collectiblestoday.com ad at the top of this thread has a locket with a stylized razor. Oh wait, that's a lighthouse.

Yep, that was all Edgerrin James right there.

Yeah, I was up by 33 in my league today, my opponent had Manning. I'm going to lose. This is ridiculous.

Game thoughts:

1)Why didn't the referees blow the whistle when David was down on the ground after recovering the fumble? The play should have been dead. David thought so too, as he got up and threw the ball.

2)Harrison was out of bounds with 2:02 left in the first half, yet they ran the clock to the 2 minute warning. Why?

3)There was a lack of commuinication between Manning and Jeff Saturday on several plays.

4)Whenever I see Manning play (with the notable exceptions of playoff games in Foxboro), I get the impression I'm watching one of the greatest QBs to ever play the game. He is so much smoother and more effective than any QB going. Brady is the only one who can compare to him, and Brady does not have the bugaboo of losing to one team several times, but still.

5)Whoever kicks off for the Colts always sucks. It doesn't seem to matter. Last season, it was Vanderjagt, Hunter Smith, and two other guys got shots. This season, it's Rayner. Everyone is terrible. Why can't they find a guy who knows how to kick off? Is it that hard? Rayner is a waste of a roster spot.

Non-football thoughts:

1)"I like it, I love it, I want some more of it." That's my feeling every time I watch a Tim McGraw spot.

2)I enjoyed the long period of time without a commercial break in the 3rd quarter.

Is it me, or Bill Bellichick is making a a "Manning face"?

Belichick just used that challenge to not use a timeout, smart dick move

You can fake a challenge for an extra timeout? Neat.

What the hell? Why can Belichick get a free timeout just by throwing the red flag and then take it back?

can't wait to see the dungy belichick handshake after this game.

Did Belichick just Martz? Noooo......not a good sign.

Man, Belichick is losing "genius coach" points this game. Lose with class, man.

belichick is making the "holy s*** manning is running up the score like we're the houston texans face" right now.

Two words, Bush League. :)

On out-of-bounds plays, the clock runs again once the ball is set, except inside the last 2 minutes of the 2nd quarter, and the last 5 minutes of the 4th (and all of OT?). So if he went out with 2:02 left, they'd stop the clock, spot the ball, then start the clock again.

Did we lose Aaron, aaron please say something!

Indy came back a couple years ago from 3 TD on Mon night vs TB, with about 4 minuted left, so there is a precedent for comebacks here. Perfectly fair to go for 2 here

No, of course Manning's 300 yards through the air have nothing to do with the score.

I think Aaron's writing a detailed apology to us PIT fans for his team subjecting us to the pre-week 12 media. I'm getting nauseous already...

(just kidding, Aaron. I know how hard games like these are.)

Why go for 2? Now, with a 19 point lead, you potentially let NE get away with one fewer endzone trip--if NE can convert 2 2's. I'd just as soon kick, be up 20 and make them go the distance thrice. Of course, that should all be academic, if your D plays semi-competently.

The Patriots can walk away from this game, take a breath, and say to themselves "Thank God our division sucks"

Coach Yoast: "Run it up, Herman, leave no doubt!!"

Seriously, make it an extra 7 - I'll buy the "we hade to get that monkey off our back. Bigtime." argument...

that patriots-jets mnf finale looks worse and worse by the day.

WOW, DOUG FLUTIE!!!!!!

c) Colts fans who will crow about how this guarantees the Colts are going to match the undefeated Dolphins, apparently not aware that they still have to play PIT, CIN, SD, @SEA, and @JAC.

What flamebait. Colts fans are generally very humble, especially compared to the Pats fans.

What a great priceless commercial. I

427 - you win the prize for the most ironic comment ever. Did you watch the AFC divisional game, by any chance?

Yes, balance is important. That doesn't take away from the fact that Manning has had a very good game. Verily, he didn't need to be this good, since they're winning by a lot. But he was.

That was, I (Heart) Doug Flutie.

d) me whining about my Packers being disrespected by stuff as "winning/losing" and not paying homage to a proper Saints drubbing, and how pythagorean wins should determine playoff spots...

If Gerard Phelan were in this game, the Pats would still have a chance.

I want Flutie to throw a TD Bomb. DO IT.

Nathan, you do realize that "controversial" doesn't mean "flamebait." Especially when you're referring to people who don't troll.

Personally, I think both teams' fans are annoying. That's the great part about football, the not-game part is completely and utterly irrational.

a quick glance at the schedule says Indy has 3 or 4 real games left - Pitt, Jax, Sea, and maybe SD or Cin, depending how you feel about them. Can they win out?

IS THIS ALL THERE IS?????

Nathan, you do realize that “controversial� doesn’t mean “flamebait.� Especially when you’re referring to people who don’t troll.

People that don't troll give flamebait all the time. Hell, most of political announcing is flamebait.

It's fine, I'm just dismissing it.

I personally find Pats fans entertaining. I wouldn't even care about our losing, and now winning against them if they didn't make such a big deal about it.

They fuel my enjoyment. Personally, I'm just glad we're not 1-7.

a quick glance at the schedule says Indy has 3 or 4 real games left - Pitt, Jax, Sea, and maybe SD or Cin, depending how you feel about them. Can they win out?

I'm a huge Colts fan.

No way. Not in the NFL. Any team can win any week, if it's week 16 and they are undefeated, then we can talk.

Maybe week 15.

I think the best thing for Pats fans tonight with Deion Branch busting out the Kid 'n Play dance. For that alone, the man should be an All-Star.

Nathan apparently does not have access to my e-mail account.

Nope, but I have seen Colts fans on this site. Maybe I'm too egotistical to see the problems, but they are mostly rather reasonable, if not a little Manning crazy.

Maybe I'm just not a good judge. Football is entertainment to me. It's not that important, and real arguements over it make me laugh.

Politics is my bag. When are you going to do a Political website Aaron?

BeltwayOutsiders.com

b) Other fans who will now pile on the Patriots, suggesting that Bill Belichick is no longer a “genius coach,� that Tom Brady is a bad quarterback, that the Patriots were always overrated, that they will never be good again, and so forth.

I think this will happen. It's like everyone and their grandma wanted NE to lose tonight. Everyone will diss brady even though he had a spectacular game tonight. Everyone will talk crap about BB even though he had people off the street playing DB tonight.

You know who are in for a long ass night when you bench Duane Starks out of necessity even thought you have homeless people playing in your secondary.

RE: 313

The Falcons aren't even the 2nd best team in the NFC. They'll likely make the playoffs, but they're very overrated.

RE #335:

Dude, the ENTIRE Pats team has been too "timid" this season. They aren't trying to strip the ball, they aren't going for the big play, they are just setting back with this whole "well, sometime or another they will not catch the ball" type of mentallity.

"homeless people playing in your secondary."

I just love the imagery this brings to mind!

Just read on Bill Simmons' site that the Pats had a tough time picking up the Colts formations tonight because they still had tears in their eyes from getting their Super Bowl rings.

It's easy to overlook, but Brady had a magnificent game. The lack of running game hurt, although I doubt it's fatal. The main problem for the Pats was the lack of pass rush and (obviously) poor coverage.

Belichick is still a great coach, his childish antics at the end notwithstanding. He's unfortunately been snagged by that great equalizer in all pro sports, the Law of Competitive Balance. Fortunately for the Patriots, they should win their division this year.

"homeless people in your secondary"

is that like the Burger King at flanker?

Manning had a very good game tonight. The 2nd TD pass to Harrison was sweet, as he was moving back as he threw it. Much better than the pass he threw to Vrabel, in which he was also moving backwards.

Edge was very good as well. If he tires again this year, it could really slow down the Colts offense later in the year.

As MDS alluded to, Wayne did not have a great game; however, he had a better catch percentage than Harrison last year, correct? I don't think it's been a long-term problem. Harrison looked 3 years younger tonight (probably something to do with the 3rd stringers NE has to start because of injuries).

Hopefully this was the last game that Jason David starts over Marlin Jackson.

Rayner's kickoffs were short tonight, but high. Vanderjagt kicks both low and short. Is he worth a roster spot? If your only alternative is Vanderjagt, then yes. Believe me, the Colts special teams looked great tonight compared to earlier in the year. (To be fair to Vandy, that 2nd field goal came off of a botched hold. It was actually a nice kick.)

The Colts defense tonight wasn't great, but they made enough plays to make a few stops. Too many missed tackles. (Plus, Brady and the Pats offense are still really good. Dillon's fumble was a huge play.)

No way this team goes 16-0. Too many holes on defense still. But 14-15 wins and HFA is a possibility.

Go Colts. Aaron, sorry about your email, man.

Man, when they asked BB about Duane Starks not being out there in the second half, he had this look on his face that just screamed "Because he f*&*ing sucks" thats why when they asked that question.

Just have to say that ABC's little Mastercard parody at the end of tonight's game was unbelievably bush league. Cover the game. Leave the pathetic comedy to ABC's primetime lineup where it belongs.

I was delighted to see the Pats get rolled tonight and I enjoy a little kick-em-when-they're-down humor as much as anybody (see 478), but for the broadcasting network to run a pre-taped (!!!) comedy bit sticking it to one of the teams is GARBAGE.

ABC deserves to get ripped for this stunt and I wouldn't blame the Pats at all for being less than fully accessible in their next appearance on MNF. Show the teams some respect.

The Bengals are 7-2, just for the record, and the Colts are playing @CIN.

One other quick thought before bed:

I realize that I'm going to be very much in the minority in saying this....I didn't think the on-side kick was such a bad call. Down fourteen, defense stopping nothing, Brady playing brilliantly. If it works it changes the game radically.

Belichick's great strength is that he never shies from challenging players, his own and the opponent's, to make plays. In this case, the Colts did make the play. I don't have handy the success rate of on-side kicks, but how many here really believe that the chance of recovering an on-side kick were really that much worse than the chance of forcing the Colts to punt if they kicked deep? Indy scored on 7 of 9 possessions, so just based on tonight's sample if the chance of recovering the on-side kick was 22% or better it doesn't look like such a crazy call.

To crib from a favorite TMQ topic, Belichick's move acknowledged that it doesn't matter if you get beat by three points or thirty. He takes risks that put his team in a position to win. In this case it didn't work and the WEEI crowd is going to have a field day with the move, but calls like that have earned him an awful lot of jewelry.

RE#481
Todd,
I am a pretty big Jason David fan, and not only because at 5-6 I tower over him. I think he had a bad game, but usually plays very well. Hard to believe he's outplaying their top two draft choices in practice, but the coaches must see something...
You were spot-on about the 2nd Vandy FG--snap/hold were atrocious and still he knuckle-balled it through.
The first tackles tonight were bad, I'd say at least 10 were missed. Some resulted in 8-20 yard plays, others were covered up with the speed and youth swarming to the ball. I am concerned, yet somehow they kept a good team in that team's house, pretty well under control.
16-0...? maybe. I am not sure if they'd bench the starters for the last game if they were 15-0. The league might have them all arrested if they did that, and anyway, who'd need two solid weeks of rest before the playoffs? I have a gut feeling that they'll lose one or two to Jax/Cin/Pitt, and then comes Seattle on X-mas eve. Yes, it's on field turf, but that game gives me the willies.

BTW, nice, effective scrambling and a super sweet TD pass on the run for Peyton "Ron Mexico" Manning.

RE: 473, Nathan, Beltwayoutsiders.com is a GREAT idea, though a statistical breakdown of lies, broken promises, doublespeak, etc. would result in everybody getting a grade between 99% and 100%--makes rankings too tough.

Also, as a Colt fan who lived through a 1-15 season, 0-9 season, a slew of 2-14 and 3-13's, find it very hard to crow about 8-0. I know how bitter the other side of that record is. Man, am I happy, but like you said, let's talk in week 16.

RE: 320 Jeff F

You had bad info. Gay, Dillon, and others played.

RE: 485

I liked the call for the onside kick. The only reason BB got bashed is because it didn't work. If it had worked, it would've been "genius Belichick does it again."
I had no problem with him going for the onside kick there. Surprise onside kicks are ones that actually have a chance of working.

I liked the call for the Onside kick too. At the way things were going, you probably were going to need one. It's better to do it early and have a surprise element then when everyone all gathers together expecting it. The kicking team rarely recovers those.

PEY TON MAN NING clapclap clapclapclap

The onside kick call was excellent, and they should have recovered.
If you watch the play again, two Patriots block the first Colt who goes for the ball, but nobody gets the second one. If the Pat on the right makes the correct play and blocks the second guy, it's New England ball.

Re: #481
Jason David had a bad game tonight. Previously he had been making very few mistakes compared to Jackson, keeping him the starting spot (despite his athletic shortcomings). Hopefully they don't give his spot away because of this bad game. I hope he swaps with Jackson to nickel corner because Jackson improves and takes it from him in practice. If he can play fairly mistake-free football the Colts secondary starts looking awfully good.

Oh, forgot to say, even as a Colts fan I don't think there's any chance they'll win out. There's just too many good teams. They'll probably lose two games, Cincinnati or Pittsburgh and Seattle or San Diego. Unless they do better tackling TEs, San Diego will force them to score a LOT of points to win.

What happened to Tarik Glenn this year? From Pro Bowler last year to penalty machine, what gives?

Oh, forgot to say, even as a Colts fan I don’t think there’s any chance they’ll win out. There’s just too many good teams. They’ll probably lose two games, Cincinnati or Pittsburgh and Seattle or San Diego. Unless they do better tackling TEs, San Diego will force them to score a LOT of points to win.

*coughcoughHEATHMILLERcoughcough*

"I wouldn’t blame the Pats at all for being less than fully accessible in their next appearance on MNF. Show the teams some respect."

From what I hear, the Patriots don't feel the need to be constantly respected.

Well I have the week 9 beatpaths power rankings up. Indy is still #1, but New England actually rises a few spots because Carolina's win over Tampa Bay gave New England credit for their win over Atlanta again, and that was a big win. Up until now New England didn't get credit for defeating Atlanta because Miami was screwing it up for everyone (who had beaten CAR, who had beaten NE). But since Carolina beat Tampa Bay, who had beaten Miami, it cleaned up a bunch of longer "beatloops", which included CAR->NE->ATL, so now those are counted as valid wins again.

So New England rises, and Carolina rises even more.

Did you get that?

Click my name to see the graph and the rankings.

#486 and #492 Well, the last really bad game David had was a few weeks earlier against St. Louis. Is it possible he just plays very poorly on Monday nights?

493

Tarik Glenn didn't deserve the Pro Bowl last year. Everyone just thought the O-line must be good because Peyton was lighting it up. Three guys got hurt. They aren't going to send undrafted rookies to the pro bowl, so Glenn was all that was left to reward.

Last night wasn't that different for him.

IK6 (#440 )--
Is it me, or Bill Bellichick is making a a “Manning face�?
I might have missed one, but I'd say that's Belichick's usual game face. He usually looks like he's got Essence of Sour Persimmon bottled, and takes a swig at every commercial break.

Goat of the Game Awards (a tie!) to Duane Starks and Corey Dillon.

Did anyone catch Belichick's slapdown of Starks in the news conference? "Why wasn't Starks on the field in the second half." "We wanted to have the best players on the field."

Sid #439:

Manning is unquestionably the best QB playing right now, and probably the smartest about the position since Jim Kelly. My entirely subjective criteria for this is the fact that they always called their own plays and ran a successful no-huddle offense all game long. He is very smooth, stays upright, and rarely makes mistakes.

Samurai #476:

I watched Pats players tryign to strip the ball last night. Unfortunately, they should have been trying to tackle.

One other thing: kudos to Dungy for going for it on 4th down near mid-field. Perhaps he is learning...

“Why wasn’t Starks on the field in the second half.� “We wanted to have the best players on the field.�

If I'm in the media horde, my followup question is "Then why was Starks on the field in the first half?"

Aaron, I hope you're not getting too many nasty emails from Colts fans. Sadly, I'd imagine you are. I'm hoping that Colts fans won't embarrass ourselves too much in the next few days over this, especially since those of us who frequent this here site know that you're as fair as anyone on the web. Bill Simmons, on the other hand... he's been asking for it.

504 -

If you have the stones to ask that question of Belichick face-to-face in the interview room, you should indeed be part of the media horde!

I have a question about Starks, since the general consensus seems to be that he sucks. It seemed to me that the Colts were going after Asante Samuel at least as much as Starks in the first half. Did anyone else notice that, or am I imagining it?

Next time Carl shows up and tells us what a nice, classy guy Bill Polian is, I'm going to tell Carl to please remove his head from Polian's ***.

First we had Polian's crass, quasi-gloating remark over Bruschi's stroke some months ago, and last night we had this:

With four seconds remaining and the Patriots hurrying to the line to squeeze off one final play in a 40-21 blowout by Indy, Colts president Bill Polian said with annoyance, "They're trying to run another play. He's going to throw another pass."

And as backup quarterback Doug Flutie rolled out with pressure on his heels, Polian muttered, "Break his leg."

(from the Pats beat writer for the ProJo -- click my name for the link)

That said, the Colts do deserve to enjoy that win -- they beat the Pats like a drum, no ifs, ands, or buts.

Re: 507

Drew, that's what I thought too. Certainly on the first drive, and I thought later on as well, it seemed like Samuel was getting burned pretty regularly. That 48 yarder on the second play from scrimmage, for example, was Harrison just running away from Samuel, then the TD on the fade was exploiting the same matchup.

Maybe the Pats were giving Starks extra help and leaving Asante one on one with Harrison?

hurrah.

Now that the Colts won, nfl.com/NFL Network's Lincoln Kennedy says the Colts will run the table (linked).

Well, I'm not going to put too much faith into what a Pats beat writer claims he heard Bill Polian mutter. I once had a clerk at a grocery store insist that I muttered the word "b****" even though I did not. Sometimes people hear things. If I hear it from another independent source, I might believe it.

I will agree 100% that Polian has a somewhat personal beef with the tactics that the Patriots occasionally employ, as I've heard him discuss on his radio show. But I don't believe he would wish an injury on somebody. I also agree with him that Belichick throwing the challenge flag was a fairly obvious attempt to game the system.

I'm a Colts' fan living in the Indianapolis area, and I don't know ANYBODY who thinks Bill Polian is nice or classy. Am I glad he's the Colts' GM? Absolutely, but I wouldn't want him for a next door neighbor.

I astonished people are seriously talking about the Colts going 16-0. Are they completely unaware of the history here, or even the lack of incentive to win games after a team clinches home field advantage throughout the conference playoffs?

I've seen much better looking teams than Indianapolis (Denver '98, Washington '91, to name but two), and none of them were able go run the table. The chances of the Colts doing it is essentially zero.

Aaron,

Maybe it's because on Indy's best day, the only way they could beat NE was when they were decimicated by injuries and all the other times that they played NE whipped their asses?

As a NE fan, I'm not worried about this loss. In fact, I'm kind of happy it happened. NE has always thrived off the disrespect and loser angles and this gives them a prime opportunity to pull that card. I'd love for IND to win out the rest of the regular season. I'd love for them to have another record. Then I'd like to see the Pats walk into the RCA dome for the championship game and destroy them.

Vinatieri says Pats lost because lacked swagger:

''They played well, but we've got to start taking care of our own stuff, too," he said. ''We didn't play well at all. Not on offense, defense, or special teams. We didn't have enough fire out there. We didn't have the swagger we normally have."

The swagger comes with pulling off big plays, like an onside kick. When they work, they are a stroke of genius. When they don't, they leave you wondering.

So who is the worse 4-4 team?

Defending AFC champs New England who have been blown out by San Diego and Indianapolis, or defending NFC champs Philadelphia, who have been blown out by Denver and Dallas?

Philly is clearly in the worse position in the standings.

#515 Ditto what GBS said.

1. I don't see 16-0 for the Colts - I think they can win 3 out of their 5 remaining tough games and go 14-2.

2. Every team has jerk fans, including the Colts. However, the Colts fans that remember the futility of the recent past before Manning was drafted just appreciate the way this season is going so far.

3. There is one Colts OL that is overdue for a Pro Bowl appearance - C Jeff Saturday. With Mawae out for the season, maybe this is the year he finally makes an appearance in Hawaii in February.

Re: 521, subpoint 3

Be careful. Observing that another player's injury might cause your team to move up a notch could be considered crass quasi-gloating.

What was Brady's DPAR monday night?

I think I'm going to start calling the Patriots the Tom Brady show, because he's their only consistent playmaker this year.

516 writes "The chances of the Colts doing it (running the table) is essentially zero."

Really? Essentially zero? So would you put it at, say, 1%? If so I will gladly put up 10 bucks against your 1000 and we can have a fun little bet on the Colts going undefeated.

In fact, if any of the many people who have pointed out that the Colts have "no chance" to go 16-0 wants to back that up with odds that reflect that belief, please, please, please make your willingness known here!

I have no affinity for the Colts, but it's foolish to say they have no chance to win eight more.

Here's a fun time-killer. Go through the rest of Indy's schedule and assign a % chance of them winning each game. Then multiply them all together and see what you have as the % chance of them running the table. I've got 9%, an 11-1 shot against. Honestly I think that's about right.

I'll poke around and see if anyone has posted odds on Indy finishing 16-0.

betonsports.com has the Colts a 10-1 shot to finish 16-0.

They offer odds on all possible finishes for the Colts, with the shortest price being 5-2 on a 13-3 season. 14-2 is 2-1, and they list 7-2 on both one loss and four losses.

They also offer an absurd 150-1 on the Colts losing their eight remaining games. Come on! By my guesstimating those odds should be more like 100,000-1.

Re: 517

http://www.umass.edu/aesop/content.php?n=10&i=1

Re: #498
Agreed, I never thought Glenn was the best lineman they have. But he seems to be getting multiple penalties almost every game this year. I'd be interested to see his penalties vs. the whole line's penalties from last year. And Saturday is definitely the one that should be getting to the Pro Bowl regularly, just look how well the line does without him in there...0-5 in the preseason, the QBs were pressured relentlessly and never got into a rhythm.

RE: 419

Exactly.

RE: 429

When I say it's over, it's over. ;)

RE: 432

huh?

524 and 525:
"Really? Essentially zero? So would you put it at, say, 1%? If so I will gladly put up 10 bucks against your 1000 and we can have a fun little bet on the Colts going undefeated."

You're on! I have no doubt I'll win. I'd leap all over it if you were to set it at your 9% chance: Put down $90, and I'll happily wager $1000.

I ran the cumulative probabilities on my spreadsheet and came up with 1.5%, which I think is optimistic since it doesn't take into account injuries or the leveling effect of a team resting their stars after they clinch home field advantage.

I'm surprised you and Michael David Smith believe it is so high.

RE: 530

Same here. If I could get 10-1 odds or so, I'd gladly put up $1000 against your $100. To me, it is HIGHLY unlikely that the Colts go undefeated, and I'd be willing to lay money on that.