Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Open 2006 Fantasy Football Draft Discussion

Fantasy football season is upon us, and while Pro Football Prospectus 2006 is filled with information and advice, we know there's never enough fantasy talk for some folks. So we provide this forum for everyone to discuss their sleepers, busts, pre-season cheatsheets, and ask their questions about draft order or keeper leagues.

During the season, fantasy questions will be fielded primarily by the new Scramble for the Ball team of Ian Dembsky and Bill Barnwell -- go to the new contact form and you'll see there's an option to send in a fantasy question. While Ian or Bill or other FO writers might pop into this conversation here, if you have a question you specifically want answered by them make sure you use the contact form. If you ask me a fantasy question, I'm likely just going to forward it to someone else, unless the answer is super quick.

-- Aaron Schatz

Comments

1
by Bob (not verified) :: Tue, 07/18/2006 - 7:20pm

If Aaron and folks want to put food on the table and put the kids through college, consider charging a subscription for access to (1) past and current KUBIAK projections (in a timely manner); and (2) player profiles that contain blurbs from each PFP, links to any PFP articles that refer the player, player stats, player's KUBIAK projections, and in-season commentary from the gang. There are enough fantasy football fans that will pay for that type of easily accessible and searchable content. And the content is already there in PFP. You just need to put it in web form. Feel free to send me a free life-time subscription once it is implemented.

2
by beedubyuh (not verified) :: Tue, 07/18/2006 - 9:28pm

For those of you looking to go head-to-head against your fellow FOers...

League Name: FOFU
Password: ronmexico
Live Draft: Wednesday, September 6 @ 9:00 pm CST
http://freemeeting.2.football.sportsline.com/meeting/view-league/176061

3
by Cheezer (not verified) :: Wed, 07/19/2006 - 11:39am

Are the Kubiak Projections available yet? I have pre-ordered the book as well, but I thought I saw a blurb about digital projections for sale.

4
by Clod (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 1:57pm

Ok I am in a two player keeper league and have Tomlinson which is a no brainer, but here is a list of the next best avail keeper...if I don't keep anyone I get an extra 3rd rounder.

E Manning
C Brown RB Ten
K Jones RB Det
P Burress
Randall El
B Engram
A Gates

I am leaning toward Gates. I think the fact that he is so much better than 2nd in his position makes him the only TE to consider as a keeper. Also I won't have to worry about the missing the 5th-7th round rush on the other 2-3 TE's.

5
by Travis (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 1:59pm

Does anyone still have last year's KUBIAK projections? I'm trying to put together a comparison of how various projection systems did in 2005, and I don't have KUBIAK yet.

What I've done so far can be found here.

6
by Doug English (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 2:08pm

Hey, as a relatively recent convert to fantasy football (only one glorious season under my belt) Could any of you veteran players suggest a good website to play through. I played NFL and Yahoo's last year, but the NFL particularly felt a bit 'mickey mouse'.

7
by bmw1 (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 2:14pm

Re: 4

I'm not sure if you're looking for expert advice from the FO guys, but I think you're absolutely right about Gates. In the mock drafts that I've done so far he usually goes late 2nd/early 3rd, and would go earlier in a keeper league.

There is a lot of WR depth/potential (Drew Bennett, Joey Galloway, Derrick Mason, Deion Branch) this year that should be available in the 5th-7th rounds of a keeper league that you could grab while others are picking TE's. That's a great spot for QB's too.

8
by warnpeace14 (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 2:45pm

So Kubiak is available tonight???

Sweet Mary let it be true!!!

9
by Red (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 4:08pm

RE: #6:

Try www.fanball.com it has a more flexible custom scoring setup and a cool record book among other benefits. I have also played nfl.com, cbssportsline, and yahoo. yahoo was the worst, by far. The other two are overpriced, but the new cbs format for 06 may close gap to fanball.

10
by David (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 9:48pm

I'm having trouble getting the button "Generate My Kubiak," I think, as changing the entries then clicking the button's not having an impact. What am I doing wrong?

11
by Zac (not verified) :: Thu, 07/20/2006 - 11:12pm

We use myfantasyleague.com . It's cheaper than any other league I've seen, and it can deal with nearly any league settings (rosters, scoring) you can imagine.

Travis, I've got last year's KUBIAK projections. E-mail me at zhinz1 (at) gmail (dot) com and I'll send them to you.

For the board, I pose the age old question. Who do you take at #1? Given positional scarcity, it pretty much has to be a RB (if you start two per team). Everyone seems to be choosing between Larry Johnson, LaDainian Tomlinson, and Shaun Alexander. Who's your pick?

12
by Joe (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 1:33am

12 team keeper league:I have my four keepers: Alexander, LJ, Rudi J. and McNabb. I have been offered Cadillac and the fourth overall pick for Alexander and my second rd pick (#24) and from another owner, Ronnie Brown and his 1st and 2nd rd picks (11 and 23) for Alexander and my 1st and second rd picks (12 and 24). Should I trade for a younger back and move up the draft to pick up a top rookie RB or stay where I am for this season? Appreciate any comments!

13
by David (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 8:29am

Keeper league question:

8 team keeper league, keep three. Start 2 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex (can be anyone, including QBs). All TDs are worth 6.

I've got R Johnson RB, S Jackson RB, and Plummer QB. I finished last so I've also got the first pick in the draft.

Available are: QBs Brady and Palmer; RBs Brown, Jordan, and James; and Harrison WR.

Who do you suggest I take?

14
by David (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 8:31am

re: #12:

There's not enough improvement offered in draft selection for the Brown trade. Skip it.

The Cadillac trade has potential. Whom would you select with the fourth overall pick? Who's a likely candidate for your second round pick?

15
by Joe (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 8:58am

re:#14
There would be a third tier WR (Chambers,DJax,Galloway) or my choice of top 5 RB's - Bush, D.Williams, Addai, L.White, L.Maroney. There would be some established RB's there like D.Foster, M.Anderson, F.Taylor but I can get them later in the rounds if still available. I thought by trading Alexander off for a younger, but up and coming, and get a rookie RB for SA, I might be positioning myself for next year without losing this year. You know that "age 30" thing that everyone stresses with RB's seems to have some merit, but I'm not so sure with SA. What do you say? Thanks for your comments above. It helps.

16
by bob (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 11:21am

#5 = would love to see your comparisons of projections. Is it worth $20 for KUBIAK???? Let us know where we can see your results.

17
by David (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 12:32pm

I don't know... with Alexander, Larry Johnson and Rudi Johnson, you'll be awfully hard to beat THIS year. If you're SURE that you'll both get Bush and that Bush will be a top back next year, maybe you do it. But it's awfully hard to turn down the championship in hand for one in the, well, Bush.

18
by Travis (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 2:23pm

Re: 16

Go here, or click the link under my name. I added KUBIAK projections (from some time in the preseason) last night, though I'm not sure if I have the ranks correct. (I assumed the order the player was listed on the spreadsheet = rank. If this wasn't the case, let me know.)

1. Some KUBIAK successful sleeper picks: Tiki Barber (5th, no one else had him higher than 10th); Matt Hasselbeck (4th, 8th); Jake Plummer (8th, 11th); Santana Moss (20th, 28th).

2. Some KUBIAK successful decline picks
(note: no one had Curtis Martin higher than 16th): Priest Holmes (11th, no one else had him lower than 3rd); Ahman Green (16th, 11th); Jamal Lewis (24th, 7th).

3. Some KUBIAK unsuccessful sleeper picks: Dominick Davis (2nd, 5th); (who else?) Kevin Jones (8th, also 8th by ESPN users, 13th by anyone else); Byron Leftwich (7th, 17th).

19
by David (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 2:37pm

Okay. So, after talking with the IT people at my workplace, they seem to think that the problem with adjusting the projections in Kubiak to my league's scoring system is that the "Generate My Kubiak" and "Print My Kubiak" buttons are in the same cell.

Any help here?

20
by JKL (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 3:03pm

Re: 18

I ran the top 30 running backs as ranked by each, and then determined the average # of spots away from the actual result. Kubiak ranked pretty good, as I expected, Fabiano did not.

TOP 30 RB
Yahoo 11.9
KUBIAK 12.4
NFL 12.8
ESPN 13.1
Fabiano 13.2

However, KUBIAK blew away the competition when we look at just ranking of the top 15 projected backs (but was worst at projecting 16-30):

TOP 15 RB
KUBIAK 9.3
NFL 11.3
Yahoo 13.3
ESPN 13.6
Fabiano 13.9

I will leave it to someone else to compare other positions.

21
by Roger (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 3:16pm

Yo guys. 20 bucks for KUBIAK? i'm broke man, anyone just tryin' to post the rankings on this messege board, please?
thanks
-Roger

22
by Bad Doctor (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 4:43pm

3. Some KUBIAK unsuccessful sleeper picks: Dominick Davis (2nd, 5th); (who else?) Kevin Jones (8th, also 8th by ESPN users, 13th by anyone else); Byron Leftwich (7th, 17th).

You know, I am thinking that Byron Leftwich is an excellent sleeper pick for FF this year, even if he is injury prone. In my league, which has pretty normal scoring (1 pt per 25 passing yards and -1 per int might be the only odd measures), he averaged 15.2 points per game last year until he got hurt in Week 12. Only three QBs had a better rate than that for the year based on weekly average (Palmer, 17.8; Brady, 16.3; Manning, 16.1. Little Manning tied him at 15.2. Oh, and McNabb had a better per game rate in his abbreviated season as well). Hell, if you'd've handcuffed him with Gerrard (uh, and knew he was going to get hurt the first series of Week 12), you would've gotten fourth-most production from your QBs. Even without the psychic powers, you'd've basically had the equivalent of having Hasselbeck or Brees. Except it would have cost you probably a 10th and 15th rounder instead of a 4th or 5th.

Basically, I'm saying give KUBIAK props for the Leftwich sleeper pick, and keep it in mind for this year.

23
by Parker (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 4:48pm

#20 Is averaging being off by 9.3 spots for the top 15 any good? I can see that it's better than the other attempts, but does anyone have an opinion of whether this makes it worth the $20?

As for WR's, based on Travis blog, it look like KUBIAK was unable to predict the strong years from:
#1 Steve Smith (ranked 34th)
#2 Larry Fitz (29th)
#4 Santana Moss (20th)
#6 Chris Chambers (24th)
#7 Joey Galloway (72nd)

Those are big misses on 5 of the top 10 guys. I don't have much of a point other than the key to wide receivers is, in my opinion, finding the guys that are going to have unexpected years.

The only guys in KUBIAKS top 10 that aren't in at least 3 of the other 4 rankings top 10 are the #9 and #10 picks of Darrell Jackson and Michael Clayton, who ended up finishing 55th and out of the top 77, respectively.

In conclusion, for WR, I don't see where the value is in the KUBIAK system.

I would also like to mention that this is my favorite website both during and after football season. I'm just calling it like I'm seeing it.

24
by Parker (not verified) :: Fri, 07/21/2006 - 5:00pm

#11 - From what I have seen, Johnson is the way to go, hands down.

#12 - Tell that guy to shove it. If everyone is able to keep 4 guys, your really talking about getting the 4th pick in the fifth round in to exchange Alexander for Williams. What hot rookie prospect will be available 4th? Laurence Maroney?

25
by David Lewin (not verified) :: Sat, 07/22/2006 - 1:16am

Just out of curiosity is anyone interesting in doing a PAR based fantasy league as a bit of an experiment? I have talked to Aaron about this a little and we could probably get it done if there was enough interest.

The advantages are more accurate valuation of players, especially making it more realistic in terms of the balance between QB (no more drafting RBs the first three rounds) and RB. It also means you can root for your players to do well in ways that help the team (i.e. first downs) and not just gain yards/tds.

The downside would be the lack of instant feedback, given that the PAR numbers would not come out until Monday, and if you didn't watch the game you wouldn't be able to tell how well your guy did just by the bottom line.

Still, even given these problems I'd like to give it a try, so if people are interested we'll see if we can work out the details and test it out.

26
by Mike (not verified) :: Sat, 07/22/2006 - 1:41am

I agree, myfantasyleague.com is the best site for a league to be run by. As far as the best RB for fantasy purposes in the league, I would have to say Alexander! Tomlinson is the best back in real football, but his quarterback is in question. As far as Johnson, whom I had last year, with a new coaching staff coming in question he is a little risky. Alexander has been a stud ever since Waters went down! The whole team is stable with the exception of losing Hutch. Not to mention, their division is lacking on defense.

27
by Paul (not verified) :: Sat, 07/22/2006 - 2:47pm

I was wondering when will Pro Football Prospectus come out?

28
by Dan (not verified) :: Sat, 07/22/2006 - 9:01pm

Amazon shipped my copy of the book yesterday evening. I should have it on Monday morning.

29
by Zac (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 12:20am

David, I'm interested in the idea. The only possible problem I could see is that a 3rd string QB (PAR 0.0) is better than a bad starting QB (PAR -66.3, for Alex Smith, for example). You have to have a system that favors those who play more, even if they're playing really badly. My fix would be to not subtract replacement value from PAR, making it just Points. But that's only an issue if you have a big league (like 20 teams).

30
by Matt (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 11:19am

For anyone who doubts KUBIAC (there were several eariler posts discussing this), it helped me to a 1st/1st/2nd/2nd/5th (all in 16 team formats) and a total of $1000 in my 5 leagues last season. By far it was a more superior tool than ESPN or Yahoo's projections/big board. Since it is format adaptable, as opposed to the major sites who rank based on their default format, that alone is an edge to the user. It is also the only site that explains how they derive their projections, and tries to use comparables and regressions to try to predict the future. They provide a framework for more educated drafting, not a dead on prediction. For the most part, they identify the guys most likely to break out or score the most points. Remember, this is not baseball, which is a lot easier to predict and has more year to year correlates in performance. No one can tell you that Kevin Jones will play a little hurt and that his line may not block as well as they did for him the year before. Give these guys a break.

If you know your fantasy sports, and have made it this far to this site, you should not be doubting their material, or the $20 tag to purchase it (the book is $16 and will only give you a preseason KUBIAC that cannot be updated). It is a business investment.

Aaron and crew, thanks

31
by David (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 12:02pm

re: 30

I agree: it helped me to finish first in two leagues even with drafting the Jones boys last year. Additional benefit: when you use the ESPN or Yahoo prediction engines, everyone knows who you'll draft. Using an alternate source of information itself offers the draft advantage of surprise.

HOW do you adjust the KUBIAK for league settings? I've been trying and trying, with no success. ANY advice you can offer would be very much appreciated. I'm using a macintosh computer, if that helps, and when I click the "Generate My Kubiak" button, nothing happens. I only end up selecting the cell which contains both that button and the Print My Kubiak button.

32
by Dan (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 2:18pm

SI.com is providing solid fantasy football coverage as usual. This article is linked to on the NFL page:

Inside Fantasy Football
Before you draft, remember these names
Posted: Thursday August 25, 2005 12:03PM

33
by Dingo (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 2:41pm

HELP!! -- So i bought the KUBIAK projections and i have generated my personal kubiak. I see how the dynamic fantasy points have been adjusted but is there a way to order them to i have the highest value on top and then the decend in order -- all of this AFTER my customization? thanks

34
by Ate My Baby (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 3:35pm

#23 The value in any projection system is relative. Relative to what everyone else is using.

For example, I drafted Santanna Moss in the 11th round because last year's KUBIAK prediction for Moss was higher than what the other 9 guys were using. The key here is to keep busts low in the predictions and value real sleepers higher than others do.

There is a way to really see how this would work if you want to. Go to #5's site and mock draft between the different projection systems (you may have to mock two teams for each since there aren't 10 systems). Take a look at what you get and see if the KUBIAK teams are better than the others.

By the way, I won my league last year using the projections in the book. I also got lucky when Shaun Alecander fell to me at #3 after I had been trying to trade down to pick up the Jones brothers.

35
by Virginia (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 3:44pm

Sleeper Strategy Question:

1. When will scramble for the ball talk about sleeper leagues?

2. I am in a league that will have sleepers for the first time. We are using the antsports rules which are:

Up to three keepers per year.
Up to three years per kept player.
Players taken in the first three rounds cannot be kept.
Keeping a player requires giving up a draft pick--last year's round +2 (so a 5th rounder last year will cost a 3rd this year).

Question: Is there a good strategy other than to keep the players who would be drafted high relative to the pick that you need to give up? There will be at least 15 starting RBs that cannot be kept, including mine from last year (Alexander and Barber). I plan on 3 receivers right now, Boldin (for a 5th), S. Moss (for a 9th), and Mason (for an 11th).

Other options are C. Benson (for a 4th, ugh), C. Perry (for a 12th), Jake Plummer (for a 6th--high for a QB in our league last year).

Thoughts are welcome.

36
by Dan (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 4:15pm

re: #10 and #31

Did you guys enable the use of macros in MS excel? If the program doesn't prompt you to when you open the file, than go into options-tools-security and do it manually. I would advise the medium setting.

37
by Dan (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 4:16pm

What I like to do is take the KUBIAK projections and plug them into the free version of footballguys.com draft dominator program.

I have the #10 draft position in a 10 team, serpentine style league. It should be interesting.

38
by Neil Alice (not verified) :: Sun, 07/23/2006 - 6:21pm

I'm joining a 12-team league that starts 2 QBs instead of one. My draft strategy has always been to take the best-available RB in the first two rounds, but I'm wondering if that approach will hold now that I'll need to find two more QBs than usual to get through the bye weeks. It seems to me that under standard-scoring rules, the second QB will be more valuable than the second RB.

Should that change my draft strategy?

39
by David Lewin (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 12:56am

PAR FANTASY FOOTBALL

Just to repeat my post from another thread and follow up on an earlier post in this thread: I am going to try to do a PAR fantasy football league on an experimental basis. Once we 8-12 interested people we can figure out the exact details. Please email me at dlew33@yahoo.com if you are interested.

There are also some people who use a unique scoring system that approximate PAR. More information on that is forthcoming, I believe.

40
by Kuato (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 6:21am

Re: 35

I`ve been trying to get my league to switch to those rules for a few years now. I`ve always got players on my roster at the end of the year that I got in like the 9th round but are now considered values in the first 3 rounds.

I would say you hit the nail on the head. Just keep players that you expect would be going much higher in the draft than it would cost you to give up. That should stock your roster with the best available talent.

Of the players you listed:

Boldin (for a 5th), S. Moss (for a 9th), and Mason (for an 11th).

I think those are all excellent choices and certainly better than: C. Benson (for a 4th, ugh), C. Perry (for a 12th), Jake Plummer (for a 6th).

You will have your receiver spot locked up, and can get three RB and an elite QB in the first 4 rounds (or A Gates if you need a TE, but I don`t like to draft TE that high no matter what).

Good luck.

41
by David (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 11:19am

Yeah, I enable macros every time I open it. Could it be anything else?

42
by Darth (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 1:17pm

#37 - can you post a link to your Draft Dominator file with the KUBIAK projections? I don't have time to input all of the data into DD.

43
by Darth (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 1:32pm

#28 - Are you sure you ordered PFP 2006?? I just placed an order, and Amazon said that they won't receive the book until August 1.

44
by Parker (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 2:06pm

#42

That would sort of be like giving away the KUBIAK projections for free, which would not be a very cool thing to do.

45
by Matt (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 2:18pm

Why does the Kubiak spreadsheet cost so much compared to the book?

Just so I have all the facts:

- It costs me $12.89 to buy the book (which I've already done).

- The book is full of insightful commentary, research, and analysis.

- A spreadsheet version of the player projections done for the book costs $20.

- There are some tools in the spreadsheet for manipulating the player projections to come up with fantasy projections for each player.

What am I missing? Is this just a demand issue?

46
by admin :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 3:09pm

We just heard from the first reader who received his copy of the book from Amazon, very exciting. Those who bought the book online should be receiving copies shortly, and the book should be in bookstores by the end of next week. The date on Amazon is meaningless -- the date on this book was always "as soon as possible."

Giving away our projections is absolutely, positively not cool. Remember, a number of us have children to support.

47
by Dan Babbitt (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 3:17pm

re: #42

No I cannot give away the predictions, that wouldn't be right.

re: #43

Yes, I'm sure that it's the 2006 version of the book that I'm now about to crack open over lunch. The Fantasy Football season has officially begun!

48
by Darth (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 5:38pm

#47 - Just to be clear, I am not asking you to give away the projections. I agree that would TOTALLY UNCOOL. I've already bought the projections and the book (though waiting for shipment). I just don't have time to input them into the Draft Dominator format. Did you do it manually or is there a trick to importing in the data?

I am annoyed that Amazon says August 1st - and still says August 1st - even though books are shipping. I have a keeper league auction on Saturday and would have loved a few extra days to read up. Guess I'll have to cram it in beginning Wednesday.

49
by Dan (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 6:33pm

re: #48 - I guess it depends on what you chose for shipping?

To edit the draft dominator file, go into setup -> projections and switch between that and KUBIAK.

It should take you about 20 minutes to edit the numbers for QBs, RBs, TEs and WRs.

There is no way for me to post the files or even email them to people because I wouldn't be able to verify who actually paid the Outsiders for KUBIAK.

50
by David (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 6:39pm

Matt:

I imagine it's partially demand, but mostly labor costs and effort. They'll update those puppies several times. Programming it bug-free in a flexible and user-friendly way requires different competencies. And they have to use a different distribution channel.

51
by Darth (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 8:55pm

Which brings us back to #1 - in this day age, why publish a book instead of a web site? Amazon is getting about $13 for the book. Assuming $3 margin, the publisher is getting $10. Subtract out costs and the publisher's margin and *poof* - there can't be much for the starving FO kids and their college fund. Instead, $20 for the projections is nearly pure profit.

Now, a FO fantasy football site would cut out manufacturing costs, the publisher, amazon, the shipper, etc. FO could take the whole $36 or so that we are paying for PFP and projections. FO could probably charge a premium because a web page with the FO stats for past years, past and present PFP player profiles, updated projections, customizable fantasy point projections, commentary, etc. is worth more than the book and the mediocre stat engine (compare to FF Today and Footballguys Excel apps).

In this world, printing PFP is solely a PR move. It's great for the FO guys that are writers. A person with a book makes for a better New York Times writer than a guy with a web site (everybody has a web site). But if this is about the starving FO kids, then use the next 12 months to pay for a robust web site. I bet you could find investors to pay for it.

52
by Bob (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 9:15pm

Compare Ron Dayne's stats to Tyrone Wheatley's stats. Strangely familiar? Then compare Tatum Bell to Charlie Garner. Maybe it is not so nuts to think that Dayne might have a few good fantasy football years in him. 1000 yards and 9 TDs in the Mike Anderson role?

Aaron, who are the most similar players to Dayne? Does Wheatley show up? What about the Bell/Garner comparison?

53
by admin :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 10:15pm

Hey folks. I'm not quite sure how this thread developed into a discussion of the economics behind Football Outsiders and our business model, but that's not actually what it is supposed to be. This thread is called "Open Fantasy Football Draft Discussion." While I invite people to e-mail us with their comments regarding our business model, or their problems with the spreadsheet, I would like to steer this thread back to the discussion of sleepers, busts, draft rules, auction prices, and so forth. Thank you.

54
by David (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 10:16pm

Neil Alice:

The advantage to drafting RBs in your typical fantasy football format league was that you only had to start the top QB, but had to start two RBs. With each position having the same baseline (24 starters out of 32 possibles), you should choose whichever player gives you the most points over the replacement player. Most of the time, in most formats, that's likely to be the QB.

55
by Dingo (not verified) :: Mon, 07/24/2006 - 11:05pm

Hey all, is it me or does YAHOO fantasy football give way to many points to QBs and Kickers?! I mean, i guess i'm just used to YAHOO and thats why I play it, but its scoring does not give enough importance to drafting quality RBs early. Any comments (also if any yahoo players have any other comments revolving around draft stragegy based on its scoring system just holla)
-Dingo

56
by Bosman (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 12:35am

I know this doesn't have anything to do with fantasy football, but here goes. I'm putting together a project that compares the salaries of past/present 1st round picks rookie contracts compared to the contracts signed by veterans. Does anyone know any site(s) that list the contract figures (length, total value, guarantees) of past and present 1st round picks?

57
by David (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 12:41pm

Dingo:

I've never found Yahoo to place too little emphasis on the RB in its public league setup. It does give 6 points for passing TDs, that's true. But since you start 2 RBs and 1 QB, it always makes sense to take the best 2 or 3 RBs available and pick up Brady or Hasselbeck in the middle rounds. Shoot, I've had success ignoring the QB slot altogether until very late in the draft. Often, there's a surprisingly successful QB available on the waiver wire during the first weeks.

58
by Scotch Drinker (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 4:58pm

I've downloaded the projections and I've got what I'm sure is a stupid newbie question but what are Dynamic Fantasy Points and how are they dynamic in a static spreadsheet? I get FPOB and I even understand dynamic fantasy drafting but I'm just missing how the DFP are calculated. And there's no way I'm working through that formula right now to figure it out.

Thanks,
Scotch

59
by Dan (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 7:05pm

Aaron,

I'm trying to understand your use of of "Games Miss".

Does the number tell us that Carson Palmer has a 1.9% chancing of missing playing time?

60
by Dan (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 7:38pm

re: #58

I think that dynamic fantasy points are the expected fantasy points based on your league rules and the projected stats.

Oh and I figured out the answer to my question as well (#59).

61
by Jon Fuge everybody (not verified) :: Tue, 07/25/2006 - 11:02pm

After adjusting to the Madden Curse I am still projecting Alexander to be a solid 10 TD, 800 yard running back. Assuming he manages to recover the following year, which pick would he be in a startup keeper league? I'm thinking late first round. Maybe right above Lamont Jordan.

62
by Dan (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 12:02am

I've got the 10/11 pick in a serpentine style 10 team draft.

I'm hoping to get an RB/WR combo with my first two sets of picks and Hasslebeck (undervalued in this league) with my next pick.

I'm trying to figure out the highest value that I can get out of those first 6 picks.

63
by Aaron B. (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 12:49am

Re: 10

I'm having the same problem with Kubiak. I can't get it to generate results specific to my league's scoring system. I'm also running it on Mac and making sure to enable macros.

Anyone else having this problem or know how to fix it?

64
by PortisSkins (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 12:04pm

I see where some of you have said you are in a keeper league(s). Who offers the best keeper league services, or what site do you guys use for your keeper leagues? I've always wanted to set one up, but I don't know how/where to go about doing it. I've only found one keeper league site, and it looked pretty generic for the price tag of $50, (and I assume that is $50 per year). So what is the best way to go about setting it up? Thanks guys

65
by PotatoSkins (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 2:28pm

We use the Antsports rules, but just implement it in yahoo (since it's free).

66
by PotatoSkins (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 2:31pm

Looks like there is competition for PFP:

http://thefootballscientist.com/scientific_football/

Has anyone seen this?

67
by Kulko (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 5:59pm

I am playing in Yahoo Fantasy Football, and they are using a defense scoring based on points allowed. Yet in Kubiak I can only give points for shutouts and defensive turnovers. Am I misisng something here?

68
by Catfish (not verified) :: Wed, 07/26/2006 - 7:26pm

re 66

Yup. Last year, there was an extra points link to a Dr. Z article about it and an FO review of the book. IIRC, FO did an interview with the author as well. I didn't buy the book, but I've heard good things.

69
by Pepper (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 1:44pm

Projected 3 Rushing TD's for Deuce McAllister? Hmmm, seems a bit low. I look for him to be a vulture, a goal line scorer.

70
by David Lewin (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 3:55pm

#66
Do not let Florio see this: http://thefootballscientist.com/scientific_football/sample.pdf

Page 6:"Before I get started with the platoon and team reviews, I want to make sure I make one thing perfectly clear. I think the Cincinnati Bengals are going to be the next great team. I’m not talking about just being a playoff team. I mean that this team is on the kind of track that leads to multiple Super Bowl wins."

And call me crazy, but his point about Marvin Lewis makes absolutely no sense.

71
by Alex (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 5:16pm

My league's current rules have each reception listed as 1 full point, along with standard rules for yardage and TDs. I didn't start the league and don't have a lot of input as to the rules...but how much does this change the RB/WR balance? It's run with 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR and one flex that can include WR. I was thinking that after crazy good players like Johnson, Alexander, LT and maybe Barber/Portis, WRs like Smith, TO, Larry Fitz or Torry Holt will be the biggest producers. How much should I adjust my draft strategy? (I'm almost hoping to get a bad draft pick so I can get a great WR and decent RB right after each other)

72
by BAS (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 5:24pm

We are using CBS Sportsline this year for our keeper league.

73
by Eric (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 5:34pm

71 - My league used scoring like that last year, and Tomlinson and Alexander were the only two RBs to outscore Steve Smith. However, the first- and second-place teams both went RB-RB in the first two rounds.

74
by Fnor (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 5:46pm

I'm just sad I won't be able to get Smith late in the draft this year :(.

75
by bartleby (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 7:06pm

I liked the idea of sending the money for the projections to a charity, like Katrina last year. Otherwise, just do a subscription site like BP and sign me up.

76
by Bob (not verified) :: Thu, 07/27/2006 - 7:15pm

Since we can't talk about how to make for a great FO Fantasy Football site, let's talk about some of the interesting tidbits out of KUBIAK. PFP hasn't arrived yet, so I don't know if the answers are in there... fill in if you know the explanation:

1. Is Mike Vick really going throw for over 1000 yards? If that's the case, then I understand the higher rating for Roddy White.

2. Is Neil Rackers really going to take such a big fall? Is this because he is bad or because Arizon will be better at socring TDs?

3. Is Dayne for real? The OPE article in PFP 2005 said don't be fooled. Dayne is not projected to hit Mike Anderson's numbers, but he is expected to have a nice season. If KUBIAK is right, Dayne is great value. Why?

77
by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 1:05am

#59: I think Games Miss is actually like it says, an average of how many games they expect the player to miss. If you show the hidden rows, you'll see that there's a MIN, MAJ, and LOSE column. I believe those are the odds of the player having a minor injury, a major injury, and losing the starting job. So the median result is that Carson Palmer will miss about 2 games. Meanwhile, Pennington isn't expected to play more than 12 games.

78
by RowdyRoddyPiper (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 1:21am

#34, you didn't happen to be in the World's Ballziest League last year? Because a league I was in last year (the World's Ballziest) had the exact same thing happen. Someone drafted Peyton Manning in the two slot and I felt like a total jackass for not trading with the guy who was in the three spot especially since he didn't demand a pound of flesh for the trade down. I felt like a bigger Jackass when I was trotting out the fabulous jones boys week after week to put up a rocking 10 points combined. Of course I also had Thomas Jones who won me a few.

Anyway, my advice is to avoid players on the cover of PFP unless their name is misspelled.

79
by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 1:26am

Just bought the spreadsheet. Am us Excel 2000. When I hit "Generate My Kubiak", I get "compile error in hidden module: KubiakCode".

Not a big deal, as I will probably buy the Cheatsheet Compiler from FFToday.com once again, so I'll just copy the player stats into there, but I just thought you should know.

Also, we have a different scoring for TEs than we do for WRs. I expect this isn't very common, but some leagues do have something like that.

80
by Eric (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 11:10am

Since misspelling the players' names apparently averts the curse, why don't you guys just misspell all of the names on the cover intentionally?

81
by Craig (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 11:45am

Re: Scientific Football, can anyone tell me how this guy did with his projections last year?

On another note, in mock drafting I have three scenarios, which do you think will pan out better:

Hasselbeck-Rod Smith-Shockey
Warner-Darrell Jackson-Cooley
Hasselbeck-Lee Evans-Cooley

82
by JKL (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 12:27pm

Re:71. Can you also use the flex spot on a 3rd RB? I am assuming so.

In my opinion, it is better to draft the player, not the position. Because about 1/2 of all top 12 RB's don't return there the next year, you are also increasing your risk by going RB-RB with two non-super studs at the end of the 1st.

It also depends on league size. Assuming you are in a 12 team league, most of the flex starters will be WR. WR35 scored same as RB25 last year. I then like to use baselines that take into account bye weeks, injury risk, and I add 6 places for each starting spot for that position. If you use RB40 as the baseline for RB, and WR50 as the baseline for WR, those baselines were 113 and 120 last year, respectively.

Here is how the draft would go based on last year's stats and the league flex rules + 1 pt per reception using a variation of value based drafting (not including QB's):

RB 1-4
WR 1
RB 5
WR 2
RB 6
WR 3-6
TE 1
RB 7
WR 7-9
RB 8-9
WR 10-11
RB 10
WR 12
RB 11

The key here is not only the pt per reception, it is also the flex option coupled with it. If it was just 2RB/2WR, the top 8 would be 7 RB and 1 WR.

Depending on how the draft goes, a reasonable strategy in this league if you draft at the end of the first might be WR/WR if 2 of your top 4 are there, something like Chad Johnson/Terrell Owens. I've seen this contrarian strategy work and I'll give you some specific examples in leagues with similar scoring.

In 2001, a guy in my league went TO-Marvin, and then in the next 3 rounds picked up Tiki Barber and a guy moving to a new team with an uncertain role named Priest Holmes.

In 2004, I went Randy Moss/Peyton, and then, when the others started going WR and stopped taking RB, I got Westbrook/Curtis Martin/Kevin Jones, and lead the league in scoring.

Last year, in a different (auction) league with similar scoring and 5 RB/WR starters, I had Tomlinson as a keeper, but then went with Steve Smith, Holt, and Darrell Jackson, while going "cheap" at RB2 with the combo of Thomas Jones and rookie Carnell Williams.

It can be done, and you can actually strike gold and be dominant if you hit on a late RB. What I have found in these leagues is that owners will go away from drafting RB's after the first 2 rounds, and you can still get starters in rounds 3-5, usually RB's in the consensus 20-30. Usually all are gone by round 6, and then you are talking RBBC guys or high potential reserves.

83
by Aaron G. (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 1:00pm

I'm in a league where all offensive touchdowns count for six points. How much does this increase the value of QBs? In general, what do you guys think of leagues where passing touchdowns count the same as rushing? Looking forward eagerly to getting my copy of PFP 2006 (still says shipping Aug. 1).

84
by beedubyuh (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 1:20pm

Only 7 spots left!

For those of you looking to go head-to-head against your fellow FOers…

League Name: FOFU
Password: ronmexico
Live Draft: Wednesday, September 6 @ 9:00 pm CST
http://freemeeting.2.football.sportsline.com/meeting/view-league/176061

85
by brin (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 2:39pm

lelie for thomas jones trade rumours. guess that shoots up jones' value

86
by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 2:48pm

beedubyuh, I get an error whenever I go to that page.

Aaron, basically, it doesn't change QB value at all, since all QBs will get nearly the same boost. The way to draft is not to take the player who will score the most points at a position you haven't drafted yet. The key is to draft the player who has the most value above the average player at that position. Let me give the example that they always give in this situation.

Imagine you're in a two team league, starting a QB, a WR, a RB, and a TE, where you know with 100% certainty what each player will score (for example, let's say for some reason you're doing a draft where you can pick from the two Super Bowl teams, and for some stupid reason, you're doing it AFTER the Super Bowl). The players you can choose from is are as follows:
QB1, 30 pts; QB2, 40 pts
WR1, 25 pts; WR2, 30 pts
RB1, 20 pts; RB2, 18 pts
TE1, 20 pts; TE2, 2 pts

You have the first pick, who do you choose?

The correct answer is not QB2. The correct answer is TE1, because he gives you the largest advantage over the other team. In fact, whatever ends up with TE1 wins, even if they end up with the other 3 lower scoring players.

A common way to figure out value is to take the player's points, and subtract from them the last starter at that position. If we did that with the players listed above, our cheat sheet would look like this:

Player Value
TE1 18
QB2 10
WR2 5
RB1 2
QB1, TE2, WR1, RB2 all have values of 0.

How does this relate to your question about QB scoring? Well, if all QBs get 100 extra points, for example, that doesn't affect their value relative to other positions, because the last starter will be worth 100 points more as well. The QBs who score more TDs will be worth a little more than those who score less TDs, but they were probably the highest rated QBs already.

87
by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 2:51pm

brin, Thomas Jones strained his hamstring muscle while receiving his physical. Probably nothing major, but I can't see him being traded while there are injury concerns.

88
by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 2:57pm
89
by Aaron G. (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 4:06pm

Zac,

I don't know much about PAR (I need to read up on that), but what you suggest sounds similar to that. I don't have the stats from our league (12 teams) last season in front of me, but if I remember correctly at least 6 or 7 of the top 10 point scorers were QB's. What you said makes a lot of sense: basically, when drafting, look at how many points more a player scored OVER the lowest scoring starter. Am I understanding you correctly? Wouldn't this make A. Gates the number one pick? I imagine the differential between him and the lowest scoring starting TE is pretty high.

The reason I'm asking is that in all the fantasy magazines they say, "If you're league awards 6 points for passing TDs, then bump up all the quarterbacks, Manning is a first round pick, etc." This intuitively makes sense to me because the best quarterbacks throw for almost twice as many TDs as running backs score, and would thus score more points. But you are right, Zac, all QB's would be lifted; all their values would be raised. But would it make more sense for me to build my team around a P. Manning rather than a S. Alexander. I guess I'm questioning the whole stud RB theory that almost everyone accepts as conventional wisdom.

90
by GlennW (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 4:13pm

> I am playing in Yahoo Fantasy Football, and they are using a defense scoring based on points allowed. Yet in Kubiak I can only give points for shutouts and defensive turnovers. Am I misisng something here?

Likewise in my league we use point ranges for points allowed and total yardage. These are fairly basic fantasy defense elements-- any consideration to adding them? Otherwise the defensive rankings are fairly useless for my purposes. Thanks for listening.

Otherwise, I very much like the KUBIAK spreadsheet. Some non-intuitive results, which make sense upon further inspection, and which will definitely result in some sleeper picks for me.

91
by Eric (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 5:18pm

6 point TDs for quarterbacks does increase their value somewhat. Say Peyton throws for 35 TDs, and McNabb throws for 25. In a 4 point passing TD system, the difference would be 40 points; if the scoring is 6 points per passing TD, the difference is 60 points.

92
by JonL (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 5:31pm

So who moves ahead of Gonzalez now? Gates and Shockey were already there, but who else? Witten? Heap? Dare I say, Cooley?

93
by beedubyuh (not verified) :: Fri, 07/28/2006 - 6:26pm

RE: 88

Thanks, Zac. Welcome to the league!

94
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 12:30am

#89:

The thing about TEs is that there are enough receiving specialists these days that you can wait a really long time and still get one. The top eight TEs taken in most drafts are Gates, Gonzalez, Shockey, Heap, Crumpler, Witten, Cooley, McMichael, in roughly that order. If you don't get one of those, there are four first round picks with great QBs throwing to them: Ben Watson, Jerramy Stevens, Heath Miller, and Dallas Clark. And if you don't get one of those, LJ Smith, Jermaine Wiggins, Vernon Davis, Ben Troupe, Kellen Winslow Jr, and Alex Smith (TB) are still available.

I believe Gates is worth a pick in the 3rd round, but I won't pick a non-Gates TE for a very long time. Fantasy thinking a few years ago would tell you that there aren't enough good TEs to go around. I don't think that's true anymore.

95
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 1:37am

RE: TE
Post 94 hit it on the head...you take gates early because he has the value of alow #1 WR and everyone elst you wait on because the difference in their fantasy points will be much smaller.

Re: 92
I'm dropping Gonzo to about 7 behind Shockey, Heap, Witten, Crumpler, and Cooley.

96
by Zac (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 3:29am

Aaron G., the only thing I will say is that RBs still tend to be very valuable due to positional scarcity.

Let's say you're in a 12 team league, with the normal 1 QB, 2 WR, 2 RB, 1 TE, 1 DEF, 1 K setup.

12 QBs, TEs, DEF, and K will start, out 32 starters leaguewide. (37.5%)
24 WRs will start, out of 64 starters leaguewide. (37.5%)
24 RBs will start, out of 32 starters (only halfbacks count for this as fullbacks don't run enough to count). (75%).

Let's get some real numbers. These numbers are from the KUBIAk projections using the scoring system that was in PFP last year. (number in parenthesis is point differential between first starter and last starter)

#1 QB Peyton Manning. 348 pts. (+93)
#12 QB Byron Leftwich. 255 pts.

#1 RB Larry Johnson. 339 pts. (+169)
#24 RB Kevin Jones. 170 pts.

#1 WR Larry Fitzgerald. 173 pts. (+46)
#24 WR Derrick Mason. 127 pts.

#1 TE Antonio Gates. 139 pts. (+62)
#12 TE Ben Troupe. 77 pts.

Looking at those numbers, you can see that running back is the best pick until we get to a back who scores less than 263. Then, Peyton Manning becomes the best pick.

Your TE question does bring up an interesting point, though. What if we know that the most valuable player isn't going to go until the next round? If that's the case, there's no reason to take that player in this round. We can just as easily get him in the next round.

Another way to put this is that at your pick you want to take the most valuable guy who won't be there the next time you pick. A good source of information, therefore, is the Average Draft Position. Click my name for a good ADP site. They say, for example, that in a 12-team league with normal scoring where a TE is required, Antonio Gates goes on average at the 3rd pick in the 3rd round, or the 27rd pick overall. If you're picking at the 3rd overall pick, there's no reason to take him, as he should still be there at your 2nd round pick, #22. At 22, you can take him, or if you think neither of the guys after you are going to take him, you can pass on him again, and get him at #27. It's important to know your leagues tendencies though. In my league, Gates will probably go late in the 1st round because of the huge bonus we give to TEs (which makes him 160 pts above last starter).

Let's run through how you could use ADP if you had the 1st overall pick in a 12 team league. It's a 12-team league, and you next pick will be at 24.

ADP says that on average 16 RBs, 1 QB, and 6 WRs will be drafted before you get to pick again. So what will it cost you if you fail to take each position? You can get the #1 at any position in the first round. If you don't take a RB, the best RB you'll be able to get in the 2nd round is #17. Likewise, you'll be able to get the #2 QB or the #7 WR. What's the differential?
My numbers show that the #1 RB is 157 points better than the #17 RB. The #1 QB is 1.1 points better than the #2 QB. The #7 WR is 16 points better than the #7 WR.

So these numbers are saying that if you don't take a RB at #1, you just made at least a 140 point mistake, because the best RB you'll be able to get in the 2nd round is that much lower. Granted, this is a bit of a self-fulfilling prophecy, because you are assuming that a certain number of RBs will get drafted before you pick again, and in turn the analysis tells you that you better get a RB before they do. If everyone took WRs then the numbers would probably say that you should take a WR with the first pick. But unless you have reason to suspect that your league-mates are less likely than normal to draft RBs, that means you should draft a RB at #1, or at #2, or at #3 and so on, until you get to the point where the drop-off in WR talent is just as great as the drop-off in RB talent.

I want to talk about one more drafting concept that I've found handy. It's called tiering. For example, what's the difference between Larry Fitzgerald (projected for 173 points) and Chad Johnson (projected for 171 points)? Well, 2 points. 2 points over the course of 16 weeks is not a big deal. And these are only projections, which are the average of all possible scenarios. We don't know whether Chad Johnson or Larry Fitzgerald will actually end up with more points at the end of the season. So why do we put Larry Fitzgerald above Chad Johnson? Instead, let's take all the WRs who are within a certain number of points from Larry Fitzgerald, say 16, and group them into a tier. This group is the first tier. KUBIAK shows 7 WRs in that tier: Larry Fitzgerald, Chad Johnson, Marvin Harrison, Reggie Wayne, Steve Smith, Terrell Owens, and Darrell Jackson. These 7 WRs are all projected to score nearly the same number of points.

Now let's say we have the 8th pick in the 1st round (look at http://i4.photobucket.com/albums/y131/zhinz/cc.png for an example of what our cheatsheet could look like). Our next pick will be the 16th pick overall. We are choosing between RBs in the 5th tier (223 to 237 pts), and WRs in the 1st tier (163 to 173 pts). There are 2 RBs in the 5th tier who haven't been drafted yet, and we have 5 WRs left in the 1st tier. The odds are good that one of those WRs will still be available the next time we pick. However, both the available 5th tier RBs will probably be gone. Our answer then, is to take one of the RBs. The reason is that if we take a WR now, we'll have a 1st tier WR plus maybe a 6th tier RB. But if we take the RB 1st, we've got a 5th tier RB and we still get one of the 1st tier WRs. We took the player at the position that had the greater talent drop-off. Tiering is a good way to group players at the same position who you expect similar production from, allowing you to recognize talent drop-offs like that.

97
by BoSox#7 (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 8:52am

Zac,
A very well-put and informative post for those new to fantasy football. What site did you use for your cheatsheet compiler?

98
by Aaron G. (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 1:30pm

Zac,

Thanks for the well thought out post. I have heard of ADP before, but tiering is a new concept to me. I'm going to use them both in putting together my cheatsheets. I'd also like to know whom you used to put together your sheets. Thanks again!

99
by Aaron G. (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 1:32pm

Sorry, meant to say "WHAT" you used to assemble your sheets, not whom.

100
by beedubyuh (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 1:43pm

RE: 96

Pay no attention to this man! He knows not of what he speaks. This strategy would never work in practice, so don't bother trying. I certainly haven't been doing exactly this for the last few years with great success.

Damn you, Zac! (Shaking fist angrily)

101
by David (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 4:47pm

Zac:

Where it gets tricky, of course, is how much you value your first bench RB in comparison to starter-worthy WRs and QBs and TEs. Once you hit that point, you could shift your approach once more. You can start comparing the remaining players not to the worst starter at the position, but rather to the replacement level player at the position. (The top waiver bait.) Or do you simply ignore starter/bench distinctions and keep drafting RBs until your method tells you to go for value at the other positions.

Essentially: Should you value RB3s at a discount, as they'll only get to start at bye weeks or due to injury or ineffectiveness by the starters? Or are all players created equal, bench and starter....?

102
by Dan (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 6:18pm

re: 101

When it comes to your bench there are added considerations. With RBs, you're most likely choosing among rookies and/or or RBBC backs. Bye weeks, fantasy post-season schedule, etc.

103
by John (not verified) :: Sat, 07/29/2006 - 10:39pm

As always, this is a great thread.

I am in a 14 team, 12 players drafted league. We get 0.06 per rushing and recieving yards, and 6 for a TD. We start two RB's plus a flex position where you can put an RB as well.

I pick 6th in the first round. I am assuming that LJ, LT, Alexander, Barber and Portis will be gone. Among the next tier I have Jackson, Brown, Rudi Johnson and Lamont Jordan.

I am leaning towards Jackson or Brown at this point. PFP is high on Brown, and I've seem other's high on Jackson. I like Brown because among other things the Fish get to play the Jets and Bills twice. I like Jackson also, because he runs like a bull and could be "on the verge", but his style makes him injury prone. Any thoughts?

TIA,
John

104
by asg (not verified) :: Sun, 07/30/2006 - 1:51pm

I'd probably go with Brown.

105
by Joe Pisarcik Magnet (not verified) :: Sun, 07/30/2006 - 4:02pm

Our league is a big play league and we get binus points for longer TDs and out of position toughdowns count for double points. While I imagine I can just multiply QB rushing TDs and RB receiving TDs by two, is there a way to adjust for big plays?

106
by Bill (not verified) :: Sun, 07/30/2006 - 5:08pm

Just running through the thread with some quick comments:

- #35: 1. When will scramble for the ball talk about sleeper leagues?

If there's a clamor for it, sure, but this was the first request I've ever seen for sleeper league talk.

- #59: I’m trying to understand your use of of "Games Miss".

Does the number tell us that Carson Palmer has a 1.9% chancing of missing playing time?

It means that Carson Palmer's expected to miss 1.9 games on the season.

- #76: 1. Is Mike Vick really going throw for over 1000 yards? If that’s the case, then I understand the higher rating for Roddy White.

I suspect Mike Vick will, in fact, throw for over 1000 yards.

-#80:
Since misspelling the players’ names apparently averts the curse, why don’t you guys just misspell all of the names on the cover intentionally?

I...um...Rodney Harrison wouldn't respect us. Mike Nugent is stinky. There we go. Easy stuff.

-#103: I can't think of a single reason that would make me pick Jackson over Brown in a 2006 draft. Everything portends success for Brown this year.

107
by matt (not verified) :: Sun, 07/30/2006 - 9:03pm

does anyone know how i download the kubiak projection updates? I already paid for it and i cant figure out how to download the updates without it taking me to the whole shopping cart section

108
by admin :: Sun, 07/30/2006 - 10:44pm

To get updates: Log in to the store, and go to "My Account." Then click to view your purchase of the KUBIAK projections. This should allow you to re-download the sheet, in this case getting the new update.

Re: "Games Missed" -- it is not that we expect Palmer to miss 1.9 games, it is that missing 1.9 games is the mean of a very wide range of possible outcomes regarding injuries to Palmer. We had to have a multiplier for the total stats which would adjust for the fact that Palmer is likely to miss more time than a quarterback of similar quality like, say, Tom Brady.

We don't have any methods for projecting big plays yet. There is a really high degree of randomness there, higher than even the kinds of things we're trying to project already.

I actually play in the Woody Allen Memorial Expert Sleeper League.

109
by Joe Pisarcik Magnet (not verified) :: Sun, 07/30/2006 - 11:34pm

We don’t have any methods for projecting big plays yet. There is a really high degree of randomness there, higher than even the kinds of things we’re trying to project already.

No prob, I found KUBIAK worked well for me last year without tweaking stuff like that. I suppose I could distinguish between WCO teams and non-WCO for receivers and quarterbacks.

110
by Kuato (not verified) :: Mon, 07/31/2006 - 6:33am

I`ve been trying to join the FO Fantasy league, with no success. Is is full?

I`ve been typing in the name and password (FOFU/ronmexico) into this page:

http://www.sportsline.com/fantasy/universal

But it seems to want the abbrieviation not the name. . . What!?

Peace

111
by Kuato (not verified) :: Mon, 07/31/2006 - 7:17am

Re: 110

I got it to work!

I`m so in there.

Christian

112
by beedubyuh (not verified) :: Mon, 07/31/2006 - 10:31am

RE:110 & 111

I'm not sure why some folks are having trouble finding the league. I'm glad you were able to make it in, Kuato. Welcome!

I know that once you create a team on CBS, you are taken to a screen that allows you to search all the leagues. So people can find it under Private, Live Draft, With Vacancy, 9-6-06, then look down the list for FOFU.

Here is the URL to get you there:

http://freemeeting.2.football.sportsline.com/meeting/byattr/private/live...

Only 4 spots left!

For those of you looking to go head-to-head against your fellow FOers…

League Name: FOFU
Password: ronmexico
Live Draft: Wednesday, September 6 @ 9:00 pm CST

113
by D (not verified) :: Mon, 07/31/2006 - 11:28am

S. Jackson Looks better than Brown @ playoff time!

114
by bartleby (not verified) :: Mon, 07/31/2006 - 11:50am

Just got the new PFP. It's fabulous as usual, but Matt Hasselback in the first round???

115
by admin :: Mon, 07/31/2006 - 1:11pm

If more FO people want to create FO reader leagues, perhaps you would like to consider using the Fantasy service of our partners over at FOXSports.com?

Just because a player's projection comes out in a certain place in the rankings doesn't mean that's where you should draft him. You have to consider where your fellow owners will be drafting a player. Don't take Hasselbeck in the first round. Just make sure you get him or Brady in the third round or early fourth, because if there are still questions about Carson Palmer's health, the QB value drop after Manning, Hasselbeck, and Brady is pretty big. Notice also that the QB are ranked lower on the second table, with values for point-per-reception leagues.

117
by 72 (not verified) :: Mon, 07/31/2006 - 4:15pm

Right, I am playing for the first time in an auto draft league where you also have to pick some defensive players (2 DL and 2 DB and one flex). This is the first time I have ever heard of this and it is driving me crazy as I cannot decide where to project the defensive players. Scoring is 2 for a tackle, 1 for an assisted tackle, 3 for a sack, 4 for an interception, 1 for a pass defence (crazy I know), 2 for a forced fumble and 3 for a fumble recovery. Also 6 for a TD and 2 for a safety.

Does anybody have any advice on how I can best use the Kubiak projections for an autodraft and also any advice on how to project for the defensive players, most of whose stats seem to be completely random.

All help will be greatly appreciated.

118
by Zac (not verified) :: Tue, 08/01/2006 - 1:03am

I can get here via a live bookmark that reads the RSS feed, but not through the main page. Strange. Anyway, thanks for all the nice comments everyone. The program I use is called Cheetsheet Compiler, from fftoday.com. I'm not associated with them in any other than having bought it for the 3rd year in a row. There are other similar products made by other companies, such as the VBD Excel Application and Draft Dominator (made by footballguys.com, including a free version that has everything except the projections are from June 1st [but if you're using the KUBIAK projections, it doesn't really matter anyway]), or the Click my name for more details. As long as you have Microsoft Excel on your computer, you can use it. If you have a laptop or are doing your draft online, the included Draft Buddy program is also great. The program allows you to enter your leagues scoring system to get customized cheatsheets. Their built-in projections are very good, but they also allow you to use other projections. I'm probably going to use rankings based on 50% FFToday's projections and 50% KUBIAK. It's $14.95, which in my opinion is a great deal when you consider that a fantasy magazine will cost you at least half that and not be nearly as good. If anyone has boughten Cheatsheet Compiler and the KUBIAK projections (so that I'm not giving you something you haven't already paid for [don't worry, I've figured out a way for people to prove it]), I'll help you get the KUBIAK projections into there.

David, I have being wondering that myself (valuing backups). At footballguys.com, AFAIK the first place to mention VBD back in 2001, they say that backups should be valued at 80% cumulatively. In other words, the first backup at a position is worth 80% of his projected value, the second backup at the same position is worth 60%, the 3rd backup is worth 40%, and so on. But it seems too arbitrary for me. I wish I could come up with a way to figure the real values. The article they mention this, which is where I stole some of my VBD explanations, is at http://www.footballguys.com/05vbdrevisited.htm .

119
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Tue, 08/01/2006 - 1:54am

Re 116 & Palmer

Why would you bet against Palmer? He is looking good and is not a mobile quarterback to begin with. I'd be looking out for injuries to Culpepper and Brees over Palmer. Culpepper is a mobile QB that will require his legs and knee to be effective and Brees has a spaghetti elbow on an arm that wasn't that strong to begin with. Give me Palmer #2 behind Peyton.

RE 107 Kubiak projections

I've been having the same issues with getting the spreadsheet and have yet to get it. I paid for it last week and don't even have initial access let alone any updates. Doesn't make sense.

120
by antthony (not verified) :: Wed, 08/02/2006 - 6:00pm

is carson palmer worth a first pick?

121
by Dan (not verified) :: Wed, 08/02/2006 - 6:22pm

re: #119. mind you, I (only) said that I would bet against Palmer playing in week one. It sounds as if he is far from taking contact.

122
by Dan (not verified) :: Wed, 08/02/2006 - 6:24pm

re: #114 Hasslebeck in the third round or later if you can pull it off. However, KUBIAK predicts that he will score the points of a first round pick.

123
by Jonathan C (not verified) :: Wed, 08/02/2006 - 7:52pm

I was hoping some of you guys could help me out with a question. I'm confused about the KUBIAK's predictions for wide recievers. To me, it seems as if the wide reciever group as a whole is projected to have a down year. Using my league settings ( 1pt for Recs, 1 for 20 yards, 6 for TD), the position is depressed more than 20 points, over a 10% drop. How come these predictions are so conservative, as opposed to the other positions, which appear closer to last years numbers. Should I not take the numbers as literally, thus making me question the other position's numerical accuracy as well? Having not bought KUBIAK last year, I have no frame of reference.

124
by Phil (not verified) :: Wed, 08/02/2006 - 8:40pm

Hi all. I'm in a 2-player keeper league and considering keeping Stephen Jackson and Willie Parker. Needless to say, I didn't finish very well last year. Looking for some thoughts/feedback on those two players, in particular, W.Parker...

125
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Wed, 08/02/2006 - 8:41pm

RE 120 & 121: Palmer
First Pick??? I don't think Palmer is a first round pick or the top QB pick either. I plan on keeping him for a second rounder, but that is a keeper league. I'd say on a yearly draft he is the 3rd QB behind Peyton and Brady...and should go around the third round.
My bet would be that Palmer plays week one and the reason being is the injured knee isn't on his back (plant) leg where all the weight is put before throwing and he isn't a moblie QB that needs to move. All he has to do in week one is drop back, throw and maybe shuffle in the pocket a bit. He can worry about scrambling latter. I read his comments to the Cincy Enquirer and his comments where honest; not a sign of not playing...the season is still a month away. He'd have to have a setback to be out week one.

126
by Zac (not verified) :: Thu, 08/03/2006 - 12:03am

Yeah, there are no QBs projected to go first round. Peyton Manning has gone as high as the 4th overall pick in some mocks, but that's too high. No one has talken Palmer before the end of the 2nd, and his average spot is the 4th round.

In other news, Michael Bennett was traded from New Orleans to Kansas City. He should be 2nd string there, which is probably worth a roster spot.

127
by Bob (not verified) :: Thu, 08/03/2006 - 6:33pm

NYJ AND HOU RB SITUATIONS:

1. How likely is it that Martin and Dom Davis will miss significant time this year? I know they are coming off of injuries, but I was hoping for inside information regarding their recoveries.

2. Who will replace them and how good will they be? In NY, I hear Cedric Houston, but I know Blaylock is floating around. In HOU, Antowain Smith is the veteran, but Morrency is the young guy. And Jon Wells is floating around in free agency.

I think owners that pick up on this now - rather than thinking "it's early, these guys will recover" or "those backups are no good - could reap huge fantasy benefits.

128
by Moon Hippo (not verified) :: Thu, 08/03/2006 - 8:04pm

Talking of running back injuries... Why are people taking Shaun Alexander as a top 3 pick???

Madden Curse + Superbowl Losers Curse + Big Contract Extension + Being a Seahawk = serious knee injury by week 4.

I am a long time 'hawks fan, by the way.

I wont be taking him in any of my drafts, no matter where i pick.

129
by underthebus (not verified) :: Thu, 08/03/2006 - 9:06pm

hahaha, "Being a Seahawk..."

130
by MaddenDude (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 4:22am

great site. just a suggestion: you guys should have a forum here, itll make it alot easier to chat

131
by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 10:26am

MoonHippo, some of us don't believe in that superstitious nonsense. Even if Alexander does get hurt, that doesn't mean he fell victim to some "curse". Every player has a chance to get injured every year.

132
by Jade (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 10:49am

Hey I just bought the Kubiak spread sheet on-line - well worth the 20 bucks IMHO & I only play one fantasy league.
Its updated and adjusted often for injuries - ie. the Willie Roaf retirement the Charles Bently injury ect. - and you can compare it, using the spread sheet to ESPN & Fox's rankings so you get an idea how other in your league may rank thier draft
for instance
Wr Roddy White is ranked #18 for my leagues scoring system for WR's
the average rank for ESPN & Fox is #44.5
and probably even lower in the mags
my only gripe is that the defensive scoring options should be greater like for yards against ect.
Great stuff though and well worth the 20 when you consider putting out 8 - 9 bucks for a 2 - 3 month old mag

133
by Jade (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 11:36am

Great stuff Zac!
I do have 1 question though...
How do you get the Kubiak projections into the free draft dominator excell sheet?
Thanks

134
by Kevin (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 12:51pm

I just got PFP 2006!!!!!!!!!!!

Life is goooooooooood . . .

135
by Jonathan C (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 4:04pm

Is it me, or are the wide reciever numbers way too low?

136
by warnpeace14 (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 4:41pm

I was quite excited to get the Kubiak projections, and I've entered everything into my own SS that using VBD and such for an auction draft. There are definitely some issues.

The Kubiak projections (from what I can tell) are done on an individual basis. That is each individual gets some score based on their individual situation. Therefore with the WRs, you have very little top guys and a WHOLE TON of guys who project to catch either 5-6 TDs and around 850 yrds. Which means there are a dozen some odd guys that are all bunched together (quite near the top) and have basically the same value.

And also since the WR projections are SO close.. the top WRs are fairly undervalued, when one compares the value of historical data for the top 40 WRs or so... historical there is a larger spread than you see in the Kubiak projections.

A further issue in this is that guys like Larry Johnson is valued at over $100 (out of a $155 cap).. if you look at last season, SA record breaking effort in the same scoring system only made him an $83 value (don't get me wrong that is CRAZY HUGE value), but $100?? I don't think it's THAT much of a lock...

I think what I'm going to do instead of using the ACTUAL Kubiak projection values explicitly is using Kub's projected values to determine the ranking of players, and then use data from the last 5 NFL seasons to determine an average $ value for each rank and asssign that number to the player.(e.g. Kubiak projects WR Joe Mama to be the 9th best WR using my leagues scoring system; the #9 WR from the past 5 seasons has an average value of $##, so I'll assign Joe Mama that dollar value and draft him as such...)

Does this make sense or does anyone understand what I'm saying?

I guess my point is that it MAY BE that Larry Johnson has a huge value, but it's such a huge risk (especially in an auction draft, the best there is btw) in spending huge sums on only 1-2 guys. Since the cost of one player directly effects the quality of another player.

137
by GlennW (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 5:07pm

> And also since the WR projections are SO close.. the top WRs are fairly undervalued, when one compares the value of historical data for the top 40 WRs or so… historical there is a larger spread than you see in the Kubiak projections.

I suspect that there's a greater "regression-to-the-mean" force implicit in the points-over-baseline (POB) ratings for individual WRs than at other positions, which makes sense. A few or even several WRs will exceed the point total of the KUBIAK-projected top WR, but moreso than with QBs and RBs, there's a higher degree of variability in who those WRs will actually be. In effect, KUBIAK reflects the increased risk around WR performance in the all-position rankings.

If you extrapolate the WR ratings by multiplying by some constant to reflect the historical top WR point totals, you run the risk of equating Peyton Manning's POB with Larry Fitzgerald's (just for example). I'm not sure you want to do that, because Fitzgerald runs a much greater risk of falling to the second tier than Manning does. At least that's what I see in the system and its overall rankings, and intuitively I'll draft the solid RB before the WR who might peak at the same level.

138
by Reinhard (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 6:15pm

Rate these "sleepers" (ie unproven commodities which could bring great value)
Kellen Winslow
Frank Gore
Michael Clayton
Ben Watson
Matt Jones
Alex Smith
Chris Simms

What are your opinions in terms of what kind of a chance for what kind of value do they have in a standard leauge? I think these are good possibilities depending on how far they drop; can you add any others? I think this is probably one of the most important parts of the draft.

139
by Aggie_Mo (not verified) :: Fri, 08/04/2006 - 6:21pm

#118: Zac,

I have purchased Kubiak and cheatsheet compiler, and am interested in loading the Kubiak projections into the cheatsheet compiler -- can you email me at jeffmo@wotan.mdacc.tmc.edu?

140
by Terry (not verified) :: Sat, 08/05/2006 - 1:04am

Re: 138

I think in most leagues, someone will reach for Matt Jones. But I think Ben Watson's going to blow up, but again I think many a league will have a Pats fan that'll be on to him. Frank Gore will probably be a great value in most drafts, IMO.

141
by Dan (not verified) :: Sat, 08/05/2006 - 10:58am

re: #138

Keep an eye on Frank Gore in the first half of the exhibition games, he could win the starting job outright.

***********

Cedric Benson was carted off of the Bears practice field with a shoulder injury on Friday night. Earlier in the week he "tweaked" his knee and missed a couple of practices.

142
by Zac (not verified) :: Sat, 08/05/2006 - 1:10pm

Jade & Aggie Mo (and anyone else interested),

I've loaded the KUBIAK projections as of 8/4 into the Cheatsheet Compiler (from FFToday.com) and also the VBD Excel Application (from FootballGuys.com).

I'm only going to give them to people who already have the KUBIAK projections (and if you're using the Cheatsheet Compiler, purchased the Compiler itself).

My way of doing that is that if you attach the KUBIAK spreadsheet to your e-mail (as proof that you've purchased them), I will send you the VBD Application with the information already entered.

Or, if you've purchased the KUBIAK projections and the Cheatsheet Compiler, attach the KUBIAK projections and also let me know the e-mail address that you purchased the Cheatsheet Compiler with (I've talked with the Compiler's creator on a message board a few times; I'll verify with him that it was indeed purchased), and I'll send you the Cheatsheet Compiler file with the KUBIAK projections entered into Site B.

If anyone's interested, e-mail zhinz (at) gmail (dot) com.

143
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Sat, 08/05/2006 - 4:48pm

138: I think Matt Jones is likely to be a losing proposition at his usual draft position.

First, there's the problem that the Jags offense just doesn't really support high receiving totals. That's fairly obvious. But more important is the problem that his name recognition is pretty good for a "sleeper" and he's getting undue attention for irrelevant thingsd.

Matt Jones is a first round pick. So were David Terrell, Koren Robinson, Freddie Mitchell, and Rod Gardner. (And that's just in one year. Meanwhile, "experts" screamed that Chad Johnson was a reach at #40 with guys like Robert Ferguson still on the board.) That gives him hype that he may not deserve.

Matt Jones is a converted quarterback, like Antwaan Randle El. Sure, Randle El is fun to watch, but he's not a great receiver. But that doesn't stop the media from talking about him all the time. Being a converted quarterback gives Jones hype he may not deserve. We know that he's blazingly fast. So is Bethel Johnson. A 4.37 brings attention, but it doesn't promise success.

We know all sorts of interesting things about Matt Jones. He's gotten quite a lot of attention because he may very well be the most intriguing draft choice of my lifetime. One of the things we don't know about him, however, is whether he will be able to become a productive receiver. He has forty career pass receptions including college. Braylon Edwards has nearly three hundred. Considering that the true receivers in the draft class are far more experienced than Jones at the position, I don't know why Jones has been anointed the first of the group to break out. One would think he would be a later bloomer. But judging from his draft position, people don't seem to care.

144
by Aggie_Mo (not verified) :: Sat, 08/05/2006 - 8:45pm

#142 -- Zac -- thank you. Can you double check the email you have at the bottom of your message. I tried to email you, but it bounced back saying there was "no such user" (zhinz).

145
by Zac (not verified) :: Sat, 08/05/2006 - 9:32pm

Aggie Mo, oh God, you're right. G-mail made me have a number somewhere in it. As such, it's zhinz1 (at) gmail (dot) com .

Apologies.

146
by Reinhard (not verified) :: Sun, 08/06/2006 - 1:42am

142: but in your post you list the reasons why he could very well break out:
-hes really fast
-hes played QB and probably understands routes pretty well
-last year he caught 36 passes for 432 yards, 5 touchdowns, 6 plays for over 20 yards, and one for over 40
-hes 6 6 and really strong
-hes shown playmaking ability in terms of his hands and feel for the ball
-he plays in a offensive system which doesn't rack up reciever stats but still had a better season statistically than every other reciever who you mentioned

147
by Reinhard (not verified) :: Sun, 08/06/2006 - 1:43am

a better rookie season I mean

148
by wryyyyyyyyyyyy (not verified) :: Sun, 08/06/2006 - 1:56pm

can anyone recommend some good FF resources/sites/whatevers? this is my first year playing fantasyfootball and i guess i was hoping for some help on learning the ropes...

149
by Jonathan C (not verified) :: Sun, 08/06/2006 - 7:11pm

#148

.KUBIAK and this site in general is great.

Rotoworld.com can keep you up to date on player status' and such.

FootballGuys.com is a bit advanced for a beginner, but once you get your feet wet, you will love it.

Search around for some sites that will teach you different ways to draft and maintain players as per the format.

150
by warnpeace14 (not verified) :: Mon, 08/07/2006 - 3:16pm

I don't mean to be so player specific but how exactly does Micheal Vick project to throw 3100+ yds? Is this a typo?

His career highs in passing have been:
2002: 2936
2004: 2313
2005: 2412

Any insight would be greatly appreciated... as it sits now, I'm going to be forced to draft Vick because he's Kubiak projected as the 4th best QB in my league... and should be at a premium value if these projections are accurate.

151
by GlennW (not verified) :: Mon, 08/07/2006 - 3:50pm

> Any insight would be greatly appreciated… as it sits now, I’m going to be forced to draft Vick because he’s Kubiak projected as the 4th best QB in my league.

Your league's system must really favor QB rushing TDs/yardage, because that's mostly the reason that Vick would jump to 4th-ranked QB. Vick's projected TD passes/INTs also seem about right, even if the yardage is a bit high. Regardless I wouldn't feel "forced" into doing anything if it doesn't feel right to you, but if it's indeed the case that the QB rushing stats are overvalued, Vick might be a good pick.

152
by Tim (not verified) :: Mon, 08/07/2006 - 4:25pm

I question the top tier WR #'s generated by Kubiak. The # of receptions, yards, and TD's all seem low to may based on trends from the last 3 seasons. Is there a reason for this?

Just a quick look shows around 6-7 WR's with 90+ catches & 1200+ yards from 2003-2005, yet Kubiak has zero 90+ catches and only 2 1200+ yards....

153
by admin :: Mon, 08/07/2006 - 6:49pm

The low WR numbers in the projections are all about the issue of regression to the mean. WR numbers are highly variable. Look at Joey Galloway, Terry Glenn, Michael Clayton, Isaac Bruce, Joe Horn, and on and on and on. I suppose next year I could try to "force" the top wide receivers up, which would make the numbers look more realistic. In that case, we would mis-estimate fewer players, but be wrong by larger amounts.

154
by Tim (not verified) :: Mon, 08/07/2006 - 8:14pm

I kinda figured that the regression was the cause. I understand that there are players that rotate in/out of so-called top tier, that statistically they are the outliers, and if we could pinpoint who they were ahead of time none of us would be here - but is it prudent to somehow make adjustments for players like Holt/Owens/Johnson/Fitz/Harrison that are proven quantites?

Is there any way to quantify players that consitently perform to a certain level above the mean and somehow massage their regression?

155
by GlennW (not verified) :: Mon, 08/07/2006 - 8:46pm

> Is there any way to quantify players that consitently perform to a certain level above the mean and somehow massage their regression?

If KUBIAK is looking at more than one season (and I know it is) it's already doing this-- that's why Galloway, Glenn et al aren't amongst the top-rated WRs and the guys you name are. And even for those very most consistent WRs, if you look at their average numbers none will come close to matching up with Steve Smith's blowout 2005 season or the like.

I'm still good with the WR ratings overall for the reason explained in .137. I want to see the risk/reward factor properly reflected in the rankings, with the risk being greater for WRs than at RB or QB and therefore the WR top rankings coming in lower.

156
by Travis (not verified) :: Mon, 08/07/2006 - 8:56pm

Re: 154

Which receivers would those be? Jerry Rice is retired, and KUBIAK's projections (at least the ones I have), were really good for Marvin Harrison, Torry Holt, and Randy Moss. Possibly Chad Johnson could have been projected higher, but the other top receivers in 2005 were either coming off an injury (Steve Smith, Anquan Boldin), dramatically improved (Santana Moss, Joey Galloway, Larry Fitzgerald), or slightly but perceptively improved (Chris Chambers).

157
by Jason L (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 9:16am

In an auction keeper league with $100 cap, with scoring similar to pt per reception leagues with flex starter, I need to decide on final slot between Darrell Jackson ($9) and Frank Gore ($3). I am really torn between the two because they are both good value. Gore would be a solid RB-3 for a cheap price, and Jackson would be a fairly inexpensive #1 or great #2 depending on what else I got in the draft. Any thoughts?

158
by David Lewin (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 1:24pm

Kubiak's projections for wide receivers make sense if you understand that they are an average projection considering many possibilities. Yes a number of receivers will probably exceed the highest projected total, however we have no way of knowing who they are. It makes sense to top WRs ranked lower than top RBs as Kubiak does because they are less consistent, and if you are at the top most variation will be downward.

159
by Jon M (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 2:20pm

Um, has anyone logged on to the CBS sportsline fantasy football site today (Tuesday)? Are we in the throes of the Great Mike Bell Perturbation of Ought Six? [...oh my, getting the vapors...]

160
by Matt S (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 2:26pm

When looking at the DVOA/DPAR rankings I'm confused as to which holds more weight when it comes to fantasty football. In my opinion DPAR would be a more important stat b/c it ranks the value of success for a play rather than total value. I plan on purchasing the prospectus and the KUBIAK sheet, but, I am really looking for one stat that may give me an edge when looking for sleepers and late round picks.

- Matt

161
by Neil Alice (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 2:42pm

Bye-Week question: In my old head-to-head league, having multiple players with the same bye week pretty much meant a loss on that week, and so I made an effort to draft players with different byes. But now that I'm switching to a total-point league, am I right to think that bye-week conflicts are much less important? My league does award points for the weekly point leader (in an effort to keep the bad teams interested), but this only takes place during the second half of the season, after all the byes have passed.

Is there a serious problem with, say, stocking up on Seahawks or other guys who may take week 5 off?

162
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 3:35pm

RE 161 Bye week for point leagueThe bye week problem will generally be removed from a total points league. The concern I would have is that if you stack up with one team's players you are setting yourself up for disaster if the team does not perform to expectations. You gave the example of the Seahawks...the last few years the Superbowl looser has failed to make the playoffs and usually fails to meet expectations the next year. Your chances of failure are tempered if you still spread out your players over multiple teams.You shouldn't have a problem with grabbing a couple studs from one team, but I'd advise against loading up more than two or three.

163
by redwolf (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 6:19pm

I'm playing in a 10 person Yahoo! league that uses autodraft. Does anyone have any insight into a strategy for prioritizing players to get the best results? I know that by simply moving a player up or down a few positions, I can increase or minimize my chances of getting the player.

I have been considering placing all the running backs at the top of my list. I believe that the Yahoo! autodraft will draft a starter for each slot (QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 WR/RB, TE, K, DEF) before it will draft backups. I may miss a Tier 1 QB or WR by doing this, but I believe that I have a good chance of coming out with 3 top 20 running backs and WRs/QB from the middle of the pack. I'm thinking that even in a worst case, I end up with something like Steven Jackson, Brian Westbrook & Willie Parker. In the best case, I end up with one of the top 3 (Johnson, Tomlinson, Alexander), Westbrook & McGahee.

Or should I try to use something like Zac's method in 86? The obvious disadvantage of this method is that it takes a lot more work than my draft running backs first approach.

I would welcome any insight at all concerning Yahoo!'s autodraft and strategies to use with it.

164
by bob (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 6:41pm

Doesn't Baseball Prospectu include with its projections the likelihood that a player will exceed the past year's stats? This would be very useful for PFP. Since the projections are "mean" projections, it would be nice to know if the mean is skewed by outliers one way or another.

Another nice thing would be to add the "miss game time" for all other positions. Heck, any way to quantify how "injury-prone" a player is would be great.

165
by calig23 (not verified) :: Tue, 08/08/2006 - 11:47pm

Question:

The fantasy league I've been in for a couple of years is giving the option to protect someone from the previous year's team for the first time.

The obvious possibilities for me are Carson Palmer, LaDainian Tomlinson, or Tiki Barber.

Palmer's production last year was far and away the best for my league, but given his injury and the fact that all of the top performers with the scoring system we use are QBs, I'm hesitant to protect him.

On the other hand, what are the chances of either LT or Barber declining this season? Barber's not young, and LT seems like he might be facing a season of extreme use in the face of defenses loaded up to stop him- given the inexperience of Phillip Rivers- which might not be a good thing.

Other possibilities include Eli Manning, Jake Delhomme, Santana Moss, Chris Chambers, or Steven Jackson.

Thoughts?

166
by admin :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 11:38am

re: 160, the best indicator of whether a part-time player will succeed as a full-timer is DVOA, because this measures value per play. Just remember that some players who succeed in a limited role will not succeed when their talents are stretched out. (Kevin Faulk is a prime example.) But we do think that Adrian Peterson, to give one name, would be quite valuable in fantasy if neither Thomas Jones nor Cedric Benson could play.

re: 164, two very great ideas that I will play around with for next year.

By the way, we're working on adding a couple things to the sheet, making changes, and getting a new one up tonight. The RB situations in Denver, Houston and New York (Jets) are killing me, because there are no stats to measure, say, Mike Shanahan's brain.

167
by Nick (not verified) :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 11:41am

#164: The BP projections are based on a system (PECOTA) that generates a distribution of possible performances (by determining how similar players performed). The distributions are where the breakout/improve projections come from.

I'm not sure exactly how the KUBIAK projections work, but it may not be designed to create those kind of distributions and make those kind of assessments.

#165: Everything else being equal, LT is the pretty obvious guy to protect in that group (unless you start 2 QB's, then Palmer might be a consideration)

168
by NoJo (not verified) :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 11:54am

Re 161:
Definitely less of an issue, but still something to pay attention to. You might not want to draft your top 2 RBs with the same bye week (or top 2 WRs). If your RBs have different bye weeks, you have 2 weeks of using your #3 RB (one to replace each of your top 2 RBs). If they have the same bye week, you have 1 week of your #3 and 1 week of your #4.

A small difference to be sure, but something to keep in mind.

169
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 12:53pm

RE 163 Yahoo Auto-Pick

Just a couple of thoughts...You are correct that Yahoo will fill your starting lineup before any bench position. So kickers and defenses go in rounds 7-9 regardless of where you rank them. Also note that yahoo auto-pick backs-up every position, even kicker. My advice is to rate all your D's & K's after 120-150 based on how many teams and roster spots in your league. Yahoo is going to go looking into your rankings and grab a D&K so you don't have to rank them high. If you do rank them too high you'll end up getting a second defense when everyone else is getting #2 WR.

For the top of your rankings it should be the same as a live draft. If you want Peyton before Westbrook put him there and see what happens. Don't for get to exclude players...right now C-Mart would be on my do not draft list.

170
by Frick (not verified) :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 1:11pm

RE: 163

I would suggest ranking at least the top 50 (5 rounds) and add any defense and kicker you don't want to the Don't pick list. Also add players like Curtis Martin or any other player that looks way to high on the Yahoo rankings.

I hate Yahoo's auto draft, I still am upset about getting 3 TEs in a 1 TE league and 4 RBs when we started 2 RBs and a W/R spot.

Why Yahoo Why!!

171
by calig23 (not verified) :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 2:51pm

Re:#167

#165: Everything else being equal, LT is the pretty obvious guy to protect in that group (unless you start 2 QB’s, then Palmer might be a consideration)

We do, in fact, start two QBs.

172
by Dennis (not verified) :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 3:08pm

I'm in a keeper league and I have a choice of keeping Doug Gabriel, Michael Jenkins, or Ernest Wilford. Which one(if any) should I keep?

173
by David Brude (not verified) :: Wed, 08/09/2006 - 4:42pm

Autopick leagues are terrible. I'll never do one again.

174
by Terry (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 1:39am

To Packers fans:

How's the Packer's RB situation coming along?

175
by Dean from Oz (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 2:48am

Autopick leagues are fantastic....when you are one of the live drafters.

Doesnt take long to work out who is there and who is on autopick, then you can draft around it easily....nice way to improve your squad.

176
by Boston Dan (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 12:18pm

re: Chris Cooley

"He'll catch a lot of passes in this offense," Bugel said.

In a silly way, Cooley caught too many passes last year. Among his 71 receptions and seven touchdowns were three TD catches against Dallas in a big December game. It was his biggest day in the NFL so far -- and it just so happened that it reaped benefits for Cooley's opponent in a fantasy football league.

"I honestly lost because I beat myself," Cooley said. "I was on the other (fantasy) team, and I score three touchdown against Dallas, and I lost to myself in fantasy points."

Cooley said he doesn't take his fantasy teams seriously, that he plays because it keeps him in touch with old high school friends back in Utah. But might he try picking himself from now on?

"I'm not going to sacrifice a good team just to have myself on it," he said jokingly.

177
by Nick (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 1:16pm

Who does PFP predict having a breakout year?

Do they like S. Jackson?

178
by underthebus (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 2:53pm

RE 176

Where is that from? It's hilarious!

179
by redwolf (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 3:20pm

Thanks B. Nelly (169) and Frick (170) for your responses to 163. I have a couple of follow-ups.

In 169 B Nelly says that if Peyton ranks before Westbrook, I should rank him that way in my autodraft selections, however, this league is more social than competitive, so I know that if I move Peyton down more than 3 spots, there is no way I'm going to get him. (At least 3 of the participants will not change the Yahoo! rankings, so chances are that Peyton (ranked 6 currently) is gone by pick 10. I definitely want a RB no matter what with my first pick (I got Peyton with the no. 2 or 3 pick in this league last year, but I had crappy RB's all year). Even if I get 3 RB's first, Brady (31), Eli (35) and Hasselbeck (40) are slotted for the 4th round. (Palmer is slotted for 30, but I have moved him down much farther). I have considered moving Brady up to my 21 slot, thinking he would then be my 3rd pick. (Of course, I also wonder who he is going to throw to this year.)
So I guess my point is for B Nelly, that even though I rank Peyton higher than Westbrook, I'd rather have Westbrook & Hasselbeck than Peyton & Deuce McAllister. With 2 RB's and an RB/WR slot, RB's are at a premium in my league. In my case, with current Yahoo! rankings, my choice is really not Westbrook/Peyton, but Edge or Rudi Johnson or Steven Jackson over Peyton. My 2nd pick is then probably Cadillac, Westbrook, or Ronnie Brown.

And Frick, the only thing worse than an Autodraft is getting beaten by someone who autodrafted and hasn't touched their team once all season.

180
by joe (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 3:47pm

Ok, im in a keeper league (we keep 2 players a season for 3 years max) I have Brian Westbrook and Steve Smith as my keepers this year. I have the 11th pick in this years draft (out of 12). My question to you all is assuming he is still there, do you think Reggie Bush would be a good pick for me...im so on the fence on this one...i need some input to push me one way or the other.

181
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 4:26pm

RE 179

What you have to decide in an autopick is what is the highest you're willing to pick a player and where he would be a steal. As an example, if you don't want Peyton at 6 that's cool move hime down to where he would be a steal for you (like middle of second round) or later. Who wouldn't want Peyton, but at what point is he the guy over a RB for you? You have to decide and that is where you place him, knowing you probably won't get him.

You need to chart out what overall number your picks are at and move your targeted players around those slots. If you absolutely want a player you will need to rank him a few spots higher than the default rank and higher than your pick in the round before the default would take him. If you want Hasselbeck in the third round you have to rank him higher than your third round pick slot because the auto picks will have snagged him by the fourth.

182
by bmw1 (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 5:32pm

Re: 174

Ahman was recently cleared for more work in practice, but he's still not 100% back from surgery. All indications point towards him being the starting tailback on week 1, but that's not a given. He should see some action by the 3rd preseason game, and if all goes well should be the starter. He should fit well into the zone blocking scheme that they're introducing, since he makes sharp cuts and has a pretty good burst.

If he's 100% healthy he's worth of a fantasy pick, but not a high one. He was not 100% healthy going into week 1 last year, and that didn't work out too well for him. If you're drafting soon, i.e. before late August/early September, I would avoid drafting him unless he's available in the 6th round or later.

It also looks like Davenport will be (surprisingly) the backup, with Gado the 3rd string back, although neither of these two seem to be doing to well with the whole zone blocking thing at camp.

183
by bmw1 (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 5:35pm

Re: 182

Oops...I'm not sure if Ahman had surgery, but, at any rate, he's not back to 100%

184
by Joneses (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 7:58pm

Has anyone ever used www.draftdynamix.com and know if you can put the KUBIAK projections into that via a spreadsheet.

If you have used draftddynamix (draft analyzer), what are some of your thoughts about the software.

185
by beedubyuh (not verified) :: Thu, 08/10/2006 - 10:03pm

Only 3 spots left!

For those of you looking to go head-to-head against your fellow FOers…

Create a team on CBS, then you are taken to a screen that allows you to search all the leagues. So people can find it under Private, Live Draft, With Vacancy, 9-6-06, then look down the list for FOFU.

Here is the URL to get you there:

http://freemeeting.2.football.sportsline.com/meeting/byattr/private/live...

League Name: FOFU
Password: ronmexico
Live Draft: Wednesday, September 6 @ 9:00 pm CST

186
by MCS (not verified) :: Fri, 08/11/2006 - 11:21am

Keeper League question. QB heavy scoring. Can keep 3 of any position.

Keeping:
Peyton Manning
Larry Johnson

Not Sure:
Ronnie Brown
Steven Jackson

I was leaning towards Brown because Jackson was so inconsistent last year. But, erveyrwhere I look, Jackson is ranked higher that Brown. I would appreciate any comments.

187
by GBS (not verified) :: Fri, 08/11/2006 - 11:49am

I gave up the fantasy football thing a few years ago, but that didn't keep me from perusing the fantasy rankings in my new copy of PFP2006. One thing puzzled me. It appears that the fantasy rankings are based on purely projected total numbers, but the projected totals include a modifier for estimated missed games. Is this correct? If so, PlayerA, who is likely to amass 12 points/game but miss 5 games (132 pts total,) is ranked lower than PlayerB, who will score 9 points/game and never sit out (144 pts total.) I believe PlayerA is still more valuable, as I would have been able to put someone else in his spot during his injury period. That said, I'm not sure how you could better account for injuries other than by inserting "replacement level" numbers for those missed games, and that sounds like a big mess.

Maybe, this has been covered elsewhere, as I don't read the fantasy stuff religiously, but I just thought I'd ask.

188
by bmw1 (not verified) :: Fri, 08/11/2006 - 3:27pm

Anybody have any thoughts about drafting somebody to keep him off another team??

I was just in a mock draft, and had Hasselbeck (of course) already drafted as my starting QB. When it came time for my 7th round pick, there were not any receivers or RB's or TE's that I thought were too valuable. I would have had to make a reach for somebody that I could have picked up in the 8th or 9th round to pick up a player that I liked, so I opted to draft Bledsoe as a backup. He would make a fine starter on any team, and taking him away at that point not only gives me a super solid backup, it also effectively makes somebody's team that much worse.

Good theory or bad theory??

189
by Kurt (not verified) :: Fri, 08/11/2006 - 5:34pm

Good theory or bad theory??

It's a good move not because you're blocking another team, but because he's the most valuable player on the board. As long as you're not screwing yourself at another position, it's an obvious move to make. Quarterbacks get hurt, and good ones have lots of trade value.

190
by Zac (not verified) :: Sat, 08/12/2006 - 8:42pm

redwolf,

The strategy I've most heard to use in auto-drafts is simliar to what you are saying. But they take it to the extreme. In other words, you already know that RBs are the most valuable. So why not rank RBs in the top 40 spots? That way, Yahoo! will take a RB for you in the 1st, 2nd, and 3rd round. Then, since it will draft starters before backups, it will skip RBs until the 10th round when all your starters are filled. But the same thing happens to everyone. In other words, if you have the first pick in the 10th round, you can get the 31st best RB. The other strange thing about the Yahoo! Autodraft is that there are 6 backups, and it will take one backup at each position. With that in mind, I would probably rank players as follows:

1-40: RBs
41-70: WRs
71-90: QBs
91-110: TEs
111-130: DEF (or K)
131-150: K (or DEF)

Remembering that all starters get drafted before backups, here's what round your players will be from:
RBs: 1st, 2nd, 3rd, 10th
WRs: 4th, 5th, 11th
QBs: 6th, 12th
TE: 7th, 13th
DEF: 8th, 14th
K: 9th, 15th

I went with a 3rd RB for the Offensive Flex because RBs are usually more valuable than WRs. If you disagree with that, only do 30 RBs and 40 WRs.

Get online as soon after the draft ends that you can. Cut your backup DEF, K, (and probably TE), and scoop up any players who slipped through the cracks (there will be some).

That's about all there is to it.

I don't know if I'm explaining this right, so let me know if you it's not making sense.

191
by Boston Dan (not verified) :: Sun, 08/13/2006 - 10:56am

Yahoo salary cap football anyone?

http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/salcap

Welcome to Yahoo! Sports Salary Cap Football, a free game that lets you run your own team of real professional football players from the opening kickoff right through the late-season playoff races.

Each week, you'll decide which players to start, while keeping your team under a league-wide $100 million salary cap. The better your players perform in real-life games, the more points they score for your fantasy team.

And, while you sit back and watch your team progress through the season, we do all the hard work of gathering statistics, computing point totals, and updating standings.

192
by asg (not verified) :: Sun, 08/13/2006 - 12:26pm

191: Sure. What's the group #?

193
by bmw1 (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 3:03am

Re: 189

I agree with your statement that he was the most valuable player on the board, but was he had much more value for somebody else than he did for me. So, at that point would I get more value by making a slight reach for a RB or by adding a player to my team who may only start during Hasselbeck's bye week and one or two times on favorable matchups? I could draft the most valuable player on the board and have 5 qb's on my bench if the draft played out correctly.

194
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 10:36am

Query: Am picking #11 in a 12-team non-keeper league tomorrow, 2rb/2wr required starters (no flex). Assuming that pretty much everyone ahead of me goes RB, do I go RB and the best WR available, and leave my second RB for round three?

I'm feeling like I'm better off with, say, Cadillac/Fitzgerald/KJones than Cadillac/Droughns/Branch. Agreed?

195
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 10:59am

And a second question for my keeper league, while I've got the floor. At QB, do I (a) keep Bledsoe, (b) keep Rivers, or (c) do what it takes to trade for Plummer or Warner, neither of whom are being kept by their respective owners?

196
by warnpeace14 (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 11:27am

Couple of Questions for the powers that be...

1) Could you send along a brief description of the significant adjustments along with each new version? (I saw the Atl K, and NE/NYJ WR), but if there could be a little word file or something sent along I would greatly appreciate it.

2) When will the final updates be sent out? I just want to know to keep myself sane.

3) Also, I am using these Stats in a draft program of my own creation... and it's very frustrating to have more columns added without some kind of warning. I'd also prefer the stats just be given in a plain, no nonsense fashion without all the extra "create-a-cheatsheet" features. Also having all positions stacked together is tedious to untangle.

Just offering a little criticism. I'm not trying to be a jerk, but as a paying customer I thought you'd want some feedback.

197
by Zac (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 3:22pm

Adam B., it's up to you, but I'd feel better about Cadillac / Droughns / Branch. But that's probably my dislike for Kevin Jones talking.

As for the keeper, it depends. Are you going to be able to hold on to Rivers for a while? If you'll have to drop him after next season then it's probably not worth it. On the other hand, you have to figure that Bledsoe is done pretty soon.

Warnpeace, you might want to check out the updates tab of the spreadsheet. Here's what it says about the last update:
NYJ WR: Switched roles for Justin McCareins and Jerricho Cotchery.
NE WR/TE: Switched roles for Chad Jackson and Reche Caldwell; slight reduction on Deion Branch; slight increase on Ben Watson.
ATL K: Added Michael Koenen.
ARI K: Slight adjustment on Neil Rackers. He still is likely to have a huge fall in field goal attempts, and shouldn't go earlier than any other kicker.

And I assume that updates will continue to happen (as injuries or promotions / demotions require) up until the start of the season.

198
by David (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 5:09pm

re: 191

What's the appeal for this setup over other ones? I'm not sure I understand why selecting a team every week is good. What do you like about it?

Speaking of which, anyone know where a traditional auction league can be found, open to the public?

199
by Slim (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 5:22pm

Apologies if this topic has already been covered but I didn't want to go through almost two hundred posts: What fantasy websites does the FO readership endorse? Any great experiences with one site? Any horrible experiences? I'm starting a new league this year and am looking for recc's. Thanks everyone.

200
by Yaxley (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 7:05pm

Re: 196

I'm not part of the powers that be, but I think I can answer a couple of your questions.

There is a brief description of each update included in spreadsheet. Click on the Update tab at the very bottom. You might have to scroll to the right to see it. Also, if you don't want all the positions listed together, use the drop down menu at the top of the column to sort by position. That way you can look at just RBs, just WRs, etc.

201
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 8:36pm

Is it too early to start talking about week1 lineups? Just drafted in one of my leagues, and now looking at my RBs:
Pick 2: Portis (injured), R.Brown (v. Pitt), C.Benson (injured), J. Lewis, or Mike Bell (due to drop down the D.Chart?)

If people get healthy, I could be stacked. (QBs are Plummer & Leftwich, WRs are R.Moss, D.Jackson, D.Driver & D. Bennett, TE is C.Cooley)

Of course, all this is likely to change by week 1, but of course, I'm ready to play now ;-)

202
by Peder (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 8:58pm

Ok, I'm fairly new to FF (second year) and I've got a strategy question. I know about the handcuff strategy with running backs, but I wonder if something similar wouldn't apply with WRs and QBs. If you're choosing between two similar WR, should you take one that matches your QB (or vice versa)?

203
by Dean from Oz (not verified) :: Mon, 08/14/2006 - 10:25pm

Apologised in advance to the wife and 6 month old daughter last night, as 400 pages of FF goodness arrived via airmail.

I'll see them in September. :-)

204
by Zac (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 12:31am

Peder, there are two sides to that.

Some say that having a QB and a WR on the same team is good, because any TDs the QB throws to the WR, you get double points for.
Others counter that it's not good to have many of your players on the same team, because if they get shut down by a good defense, you're probably going to lose. It's a boom or bust scenario.

I don't know which side is right.

205
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 12:27pm

Having Hasselback and DJax is a good thing; having both Pennington and Coles may not be.

I believe in just taking the best player available, and if it happens to be a handcuff, so be it. I worry about having multiple players out during the same bye week, though.

201: Too soon, but the general rule is to play studs, not matchups, in week one.

206
by Melinda (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 1:14pm

Ok- so I'm pretty new to this. I'm trying to figure out stuff and I'm guessing I'm not a lone. So I figured I might as well do something useful with what i've learned. I found a pretty cool site that gives all the stats of every player for like every sport. That's all cool and everything- but the coolest part is that I was able to create multiple practice fantasy football drafts for free!!! You guys should check it out.

www.bonanzasports.com.

207
by asg (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 1:35pm

I’m guessing I’m not a lone.

What is a lone?

Comment spam is great. Well, actually, no, it sucks.

208
by underthebus (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 4:27pm

Hey I just signed up for a PPR league with 1x Defensive Player Utility (DP) roster spot. I have never played with a DP spot, so can anyone help me with general strategy etc.? For instance, when do DP's usually get drafted? Which position is at a premium? Who are the top five? Top ten?
We start: 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR, 1 TE, 1 DEF/ST, 1 K, and 1 DP
Sacks = 2.5
TD = 6
Tackle = .5
INT = 3

209
by Jonathan C (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 4:33pm

Why is everyone so high on Larry Fitzgerald? Look at his splits by half.
1st Half:
44 Recs 566 Yards 12.9 YPC 2 TD
2nd Half:
59 Recs 843 Yards 14.3 YPC 8 TD, 5 TD in the 4Q.

Here are Anquan's:
1st Half:
53 Recs 731 Yards 13.8 YPC 4 TDs
2nd Half:
49 Recs 671 Yards 13.7 YPC 3 TDs

To me, these numbers show that Fitzgerald was targeted much more often in "garbage time," while Boldin was consistant. With Edgerrin James and some semblance of imporovement by both the defense and offensive line, I don't see how, barring injury, Fitzgerald will out-perform Anquan Boldin.

Any comments?

210
by andrew apold (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 7:17pm

And Chad Greenway is done for the year. Bummer.

211
by Zac (not verified) :: Tue, 08/15/2006 - 7:19pm

Lee Suggs failed his physical and therefore his trade is voided. Aaron's going to hate that.

212
by James G (not verified) :: Wed, 08/16/2006 - 10:32am

This might be more appropriate for footballguys.com, but as I was scanning through the fantasy portion of PFP2007 this morning, I noticed what I considered early draft positions for Ks and TEs.

I assume these are based on VBD values where the last starter is used as the baseline? I read an article over there last year suggesting the baseline should be pick 100. Last year, using my league's draft history, I altered my baseline and had a very successful draft.

So my question - shouldn't players be rated vs. a replacement level rather than the last starter? If you rate them against last starter, Ks move up in value. But this fails to account for the lack of difference between the last K starter and the huge pot of undrafted kickers. Therefore, people wait longer to draft the late kickers, meaning you should also wait on the early kickers.

The same thing is true for tight ends, and I think if you change the baseline to replacement instead of last starter, you will even drop the draft position of premier TEs like Antonio Gates. Instead of being the 13th rated player, as I think he is in the PFP rankings, he'd be more around 20th.

213
by James G (not verified) :: Wed, 08/16/2006 - 10:37am

The article I mentioned in 212 that talks about setting your baseline is actually the article linked in 118.

214
by Ray (not verified) :: Wed, 08/16/2006 - 2:38pm

i have steven jackson and ronnie brown, its a keeper league. performance scoring. which one should i keep? only can keep one rb.

215
by bmw1 (not verified) :: Wed, 08/16/2006 - 6:50pm

Re: 209

I'm not sure what goes into the KUBIAK projections, but they come from experts and predict a receiving title for Fitzgerald this year. I would say that his improvement over two years (780 yds, 8 TD's to 1409 yds, 10 TD's) is a good indication that he might outperform Boldin, especially since the third year is when many receivers tend to break out. While I wouldn't dub Boldin as 'injury prone', he has had some problems in the past.

216
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Thu, 08/17/2006 - 10:38am

For fans of #194, I idiotically let Portis go past me (on a "well, if no one else is taking him, I better not either" impulse), went Chad Johnson and Brian Westbrook with my first two, and paired them with Droughns and SMoss the second time around. Full roster, with which I'm not pleased (12 team, 2rb/2wr, non-keeper)

Q: Plummer, Carr
R: Westbrook, Droughns, MBell/RDayne, MAnderson
W: CJohnson, SMoss, Branch, KRobinson
T: Cooley
K: Vinatieri
D: Seattle, New England

I probably won't even replace K-Rob; the other 3 WR can carry me all season (I hope).

217
by Rob (not verified) :: Thu, 08/17/2006 - 2:51pm

Just finished my draft in a 7 team league, scoring similar to most leagues except passing TD=4. I have to drop 2 players to fill my DL & LB spots.
QB: McNabb, Warner, Palmer & Favre.
RB: Alexander, JLewis, WParker, Addai.
WR: Harrison, Driver, DJack, Branch, Keyshawn
TE: LJ Smith, Ben Watson
K: JBrown
Def: Bears, Boys

218
by Rob (not verified) :: Thu, 08/17/2006 - 2:51pm

Just finished my draft in a 7 team league, scoring similar to most leagues except passing TD=4. I have to drop 2 players to fill my DL & LB spots.

QB: McNabb, Warner, Palmer & Favre.

RB: Alexander, JLewis, WParker, Addai.

WR: Harrison, Driver, DJack, Branch, Keyshawn

TE: LJ Smith, Ben Watson

K: JBrown

Def: Bears, Boys

219
by Igor (not verified) :: Thu, 08/17/2006 - 4:38pm

I'm in a league where the receiver is added an extra point for each reception. Everything else being regular scoring, is it worth picking up a high catch receiver instead of a second RB in the second round?

220
by Jon (not verified) :: Thu, 08/17/2006 - 10:44pm

re: #199 -- FO reader-endorsed sites.

I'm not super-hard-core when it comes to fantasy leagues (I play in one or two a year) or FO reading (just started last year), but I have used CBSSportsline for a while and it does quite well. Not cheap, though -- $130 for a league, I think.

I've also played free leagues on Yahoo, and they were ok. Yahoo's interface seems less intuitive to me, and its commissioner tools aren't very good or easy to use.

Related question: I'd like to hold a draft that allows owners to draft
1) live and in person (always best to have as many guys in the room as possible);
2) live from their home PC; or
3) by autopick/submitting a list online ahead of time.

Is there such a site that allows all three methods at once? Does it work well? Cheaper (or free) is better, too ...

Thanks.

221
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 3:06am

RE 218

Drop Farve and either Watson or the Boys defense. You've got three #1 QB's and Farve is a borderline bottom #2 and you never need two TE or two D's. Better yet drop Farve, Watson, Boys and get yourself a sub for the IDP.

222
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 3:12am

Anyone else having issues getting their purchase honored for the KUBIAK spreadsheet? I ordered and paid for the spreadsheet 3 WEEKS AGO and still don't have it. To make it worse I'm not getting a response from anyone at FO. Anyone else having or had a similar issue?

223
by Minsane (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 11:58am

How do you guys like Addai vs. Maroney vs. Tatum Bell this year? Keeper league, these are the top backs available (after Bush of course).

224
by Yaxley (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 1:06pm

Re: 222

Just curious what you mean when you say you don't have the spreadsheet yet. You know they don't e-mail it to you, right? You're just supposed to go in and download it whenever you want it. If you haven't tried to download it yet, click the link to it on the front page, then sign in using the e-mail and password you used when you paid for it. Then click on the button that says View to see your purchase and then click Download. I've done this every time there's been an update and it had worked fine for me.

225
by Matthew Furtek (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 1:42pm

So who here is going to fess up to being either the mail-boy fantasy football player or Mr. "Open Season on Chumps".

How do you guys feel about the way fantasy football players are portrayed by the NFL and their corporate sponsers?

Perception is nine-tenths of reality... (this is why I don't play fantasy football).

226
by underthebus (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 1:43pm

Hey FO how about a PFP 2006 discussion thread?

227
by cjfarls (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 1:50pm

re:222

I'd go with T.Bell... no matter what happens depth chart-wise he'll get ~10 carries/game and ~750plus yards as Denver's #2... and if M.Bell sucks, or T.Bell beats him out, he could go even higher.

Maroney will be awesome next year, unless Dillon gets hurt this year, making be my second choice.

Addai... still don't know how to read him, but am worried he'll split too much with Rhodes...

228
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 5:28pm

RE 224 Yaxley NO SPREADSHEET

Yea, I know they don't email it to me. I don't have access to the spreadsheet from my account. There is no "View" button. I got one email from FO a couple days after the purchase that said they didn't have a record of my purchase and to send them my paypal receipt. Did that over two weeks ago and they haven't responded, even after multiple requests. No one else is having/had an issue like this? It's driving me crazy that no one from FO will respond or take care of this.

This is what shows up under my account

My Account
* View or change my account information.
* View or change entries in my address book.
* Change my account password.

Email Notifications

* Subscribe or unsubscribe from newsletters.
* View or change my product notification list.

229
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 6:55pm

RE 228 KUBIAK

Finally got it to work with some help of FO...all is good. Fantasy football life will continue!

230
by admin :: Fri, 08/18/2006 - 7:07pm

Re: 212. Yes. I realized that myself, but I don’t think we have time to fix that this year. (Sean McCall, who designed the technical aspects of the sheet, is getting married at the end of the month. Everybody congratulate Sean!) That’s why it says in the instructions that we trust people to use common sense when translating our projections to draft order.

Just to make a point regarding our customer service, we e-mailed "B Nelly" six times over the past two weeks in order to solve this problem. He received none of those e-mails due to some sort of technical issue with his own e-mail provider. We were never ignoring him, nor do we ignore anyone who has a problem downloading the sheet. Thanks.

231
by Igor (not verified) :: Sat, 08/19/2006 - 1:17am

I’m in a league where the receiver is added an extra point for each reception. Everything else being regular scoring, is it worth picking up a high catch receiver instead of a second RB in the second round?

232
by Kuato (not verified) :: Sat, 08/19/2006 - 3:58am

Igor,

Yes. Even without that it can be worth it to pick up a receiver in the second.

You just have to react to the flow of your draft. If a bunch of other owners have the same idea and go Receiver crazy and then leave a tasty RB on the board (say Rudi in the mid-second for example), you grab the runner. If Everyone is still a RB whore (as I know I am), and Steve Smith is looking you in the face, pull the trigger.

For a league like that, bump all the receivers up just a bit and give a few places to the mid-level receiving RBs like Westbrook.

233
by Mavtg (not verified) :: Sat, 08/19/2006 - 4:48pm

I have been playing FF for about 7 years, but new to FO. I have always used my knowledge of the league and who I felt would be sleepers. I have finsihed in the playoffs more times than not, but never win. I also have been just a recrational player.

I bought the Kubiak projections and looking for some advice.

Can some of you comment on how your teams have fared drafting using a tiered approach and using the FPOB best value method? I have always taken best value but it had to be a RB or WR in X round not overall best value.

234
by Jade (not verified) :: Mon, 08/21/2006 - 10:34am

yeah I too have had trouble getting a response from Football outsiders - I bought the Kubiak sheet as few weeks ago - but haven't been able to update it - I tried resetting my password but I never got an response - so I emailed a few times and a few people - no response - I figured it must be my gmail account - so I also emailed my hotmail account, but still no response - this is going on 2 weeks now
kinda frustrating

235
by brin (not verified) :: Mon, 08/21/2006 - 2:19pm

*de-lurks*

we're looking for a few extras for a fantasy league. the draft is tonight - late notice i know. its nothing fancy though it includes a dl and db.

the league is on yahoo. name is : dvoa's greatest hits. password : 2006

*re-lurks*

236
by brin (not verified) :: Mon, 08/21/2006 - 2:21pm

oops. draft is 4.45 est/ 9.45 bst. its a transatlantic league

237
by admin :: Mon, 08/21/2006 - 3:20pm

The emergency server migration has created a problem with the functionality that allows you to ask when you forget your password. We've responded to every e-mail that we've received regarding this problem, so if you have not heard from us, it means your e-mail has not reached us. To ignore people having this problem, we would have to be both idiots and assholes, and I would hope we are neither.

238
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Mon, 08/21/2006 - 6:32pm

Me and my friends just started a new league together. I'm a fairly seasoned fantasy football vet, but the scoring system that they've setup for team defense is a bit different than I'm used to. I was hoping to get some opinions.

All the standard stuff (2pt/fumble recovery; 6pt/TD; 2pt/INT; 1pt/sack; 2pt/safety). But here's the part that's throwing me off a bit:

0-6 Points Against (PA) = 8pts
7-13 PA = 6pts
14-20 PA = 4pts
21-27 PA = 2pts

AND

0-49 Yards Allowed (YA) = 12pts
50-99 YA = 10pts
100-149 YA = 8pts
150-199 YA = 6pts
200-249 YA = 4pts
250-299 YA = 2pts

It's the YA that I'm not used to. Would it make more sense to look for a defense that conventional wisdom may not say is the best, but doesn't typically allow many yards, or do I just stick with my gut-feeling of the "best-to-worst" defense rankings?

239
by Fnor (not verified) :: Mon, 08/21/2006 - 10:03pm

Just finished up my draft. 9/10, snake. 18(!) rounds.

QB: Hasselbeck, Green, Rivers
RB: Brown, C. Taylor, Dunn, Gore, V. Haynes
WR: Fitzgerald, Ward, R. Smith, Horn, E. Wilford
TE: C. Cooley, M. Lewis
DEF: TB, DAL
K: Akers

I'm pretty happy with it.

240
by Sid (not verified) :: Mon, 08/21/2006 - 11:31pm

OK, any leagues drafting this week?

I'm only in one league, and I missed the first 8 rounds. Looking to actually do a full live draft for once.

241
by Igor (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 1:55am

OK People, just got done with my first draft. Regular scoring, 15 rounds snake style, I had the 7th pick out of 15 teams...

1) Clinton Portis

2) Warrick Dunn

3) Reggie Wayne

4) Drew Bledsoe

5) Todd Heap

6) Muhsin Muhammad (sp?)

7) Antonio Bryant

8) Dominic Rhodes

242
by Igor (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 1:56am

I don't know what happened here, but here is the rest :)

9) Atlanta DEF

243
by Igor (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 1:57am

OK, I'm an idiot. This is the first time something like this has happened

10) Mike Anderson

244
by Igor (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 1:58am

11) Michael Jenkins

245
by Igor (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 2:01am

OK, apparently you can't use (SHIFT+,) and (SHIFT +`)

SORRY EVERYONE

12) Ashlie Lelie: Just hoping he gets traded

13) John Kitna: plays against Green Bay during Bledsoe's bye week

14) Michael Bennett: meh, worth a shot

15) Kellen Winslow: didn't even see him until the last round

What do you guys think? Who should I drop to pick up a kicker from waivers?

246
by Sam! (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 11:55am

just to make sure i understand... i bought the KUBIAK projections... should I be basing my picks based on the DFOB rank or Dynamic Fantasy points? Adjusting, obviously, for undervalued players on Y! and FoxSports.

247
by warnpeace14 (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 12:14pm

Ok.. so according to the new Kubiak projections.... without naming names.. the rushing TDs for running backs have three guys above 20... one guy at 14, one at 11, and then EVERYONE else at 10 or under.

This doesn't seem realistic to me. Could anyone provide some insight?

248
by admin :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 12:15pm

You want to use FPOB rank. Otherwise, players where the baseline is lower (TE, K) will appear too high on your sheet.

2005 NFL Rushing TD Leaders:
S Alexander 27
L Johnson 20
L Tomlinson 18
E James 13
M Anderson 12
S Davis 12
C Dillon 12
R Johnson 12

By the way, forgot to mention. People are asking about a PFP 2006 discussion thread. I'm planning on doing a mailbag and that turns into a book thread, so you can just send your book questions to me using the contact form.

249
by Jonathan C (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 2:19pm

What's everyone doing with Larry Johnson? I'm trying to drop him while I still can.

250
by Minsane (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 3:35pm

10 team draft, 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 flex, results, I had the 10th slot. Results, with dilemmas I felt I faced in ( ). Thoughts?

1 Portis
2 Jordan (over Cadillac)
3 Wayne
4 Hasselbeck (over DJackson)
5 Driver
6 Cooley (over Housh)
7 Thomas Jones
8 Maroney (over DMason)
9 Plummer (over a defense)
10 Drew Bennett
11 Roddy White
12 DeAngelo Williams
13 Maurice Morris
14 Engram (over defense or kicker)
15 Packers
16 Dolphins

I think the major thing I might have changed is Hasselbeck so early, since there were some solid WRs on the board then, and guys like Plummer and Vick fell pretty late (Big Ben went undrafted). On the other hand, I think Hass is primed for a huge fantasy year, consolidating his gains from last season and getting some of those TDs that went to Shaun turned into passes instead.

251
by Jade (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 3:59pm

Thanks for the reply Aaron but it doesn't help me!
I have sent several emails through your sites 'Contact Us' page - I have never ever recieved a response - So from what you are saying is that this page must not be working.
You have implied that the reset password option is also not working. I am assuming that others have had this problem as I've seen evidence of it in this very same thread.
Sounds like a bit of a mess
Sounds like it could also be costing you guys some serious $$$$$$$$$$$
You guys do great in depth work. I along with many others want to implement it and give you guys my money but if your interface and customer service doesn't work... I have to move on. Guess I wasted 20 bucks
I just gave another website 25 bucks and am more than pleased with thier content and service - I recieve daily emails and am able to update thier draft applications very very easily.
Like I said you guys have a lotta know how about football & fantasy football, but obviously If I cannot use and update a product I have paid for... then yer just another of many decent news site - with some interesting articles. Why would I ever give you another cent if you don't give me any help or assistance in resolving the problem???
So please help maybe an email address?
or contact me at jadebos@hotmail.com
PS. You are not an asshole, but if you don't help to solve the problem then I am left to draw no other conclusion that you may indeed be a dumb ass ;)

252
by Zac (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 4:47pm

10 team league. New this year was that we got to choose our draft order (with the bad teams choosing first). First 4 guys took 1 - 4. I was 5th. I think 5th is a horrible spot. I moved down to 8th.

We're a PPR league that values TEs much higher than most, so they go much faster. Gates went 11th overall. Teams are required to draft 2 QB, 4 RB, 4 WR, 2 TE, 2K, 2 DEF, and one floater of any position.

My picks by round:
1. Rudi Johnson
2. Clinton Portis
3. Reggie Waynr
4. Donald Driver
5. Matt Hasselbeck
6. Chris Cooley
7. Eddie Kennison
8. Chris Brown
9. Laveranues Coles
10. Deuce McAllister
11. Ben Troupe
12. Jake Plummer
13. Washington
14. Chris Perry
15. Josh Brown
16. Jeff Reed
17. San Diego

Taking Hasselbeck and Cooley strengthed my team, but at the expense of my backup RBs and WRs. I would have liked to get a 3rd RB who's a more sure thing, but we'll see what happens.

I might have been able to wait even longer on Hasselbeck. The next QB drafted was Carson Palmer, who went 4 picks before I took Kennison.

253
by Daniel (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 11:08pm

Need some last-minute opinions.

I have the 9th overall pick in a league that has standard scoring, but awards 0.5 points per reception. I'm pretty sure I'm taking Ronnie Brown in the 1st round, but I'm much less sure about the 2nd round, mainly because of the preseason injuries to Brian Westbrook and Domanick Davis.

Should I take a chance and grab Westbrook or Davis, or should I take an elite WR like Larry Fitzgerald or Chad Johnson instead? How about Julius Jones?

Your thoughts are much appreciated.

254
by Sid (not verified) :: Tue, 08/22/2006 - 11:33pm

Could the Portis injury be more serious than the Redskins are letting on? They sent a draft pick in order to get Duckett. 3 way deal tonight.

So any leagues? Should I start one myself?

255
by Dean from Oz (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 12:20am

I dont mind whether there is PFP06 thread or not, I just wonder whether the Bizarro Falcon fanbase is the same as the actual Falcon fanbase...

256
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 3:32am

RE: 253 - Daniel

Personally, I'd shy away from the likes of Dom Davis, Westbrook, and Julius Jones until late second round or later. There are two many questions with injuries, durability, and playing time to flop a top pick on these guys. I'm guessing your in a 10-12 team league. My advice for a early second round pick would be to look for a top RB that falls like Caddy or Portis, a top WR like CJ, T Holt, or Fitz, or Peyton if he lasts that long.

257
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 3:44am

I'm trying to decide what to do with my second keeper pick in a two keeper league. I thought I had it figured out, but the last week or so has left me second guessing.

I'm keeping Rudi for a 1st rounder, but the question is my second rounder. My options are McGahee or Palmer from my squad or aquiring Fitz for an 8th round pick or keeping no one (not a good option with what will be available). Personally I have been leaning on Palmer up until recently...McGahee just scares me in Buffalo, but if I don't keep him I'm looking at Droughns, Parker, or K Jones as a second back which doesn't bother me too much.

Is a second round pick in a keeper league to much for Palmer? I don't think it would be since my KUBIAK scoring has him at #10 FPOB. Thoughts anyone?

258
by Fnor (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 9:25am

Depends on how confident you are in Palmer starting and staying healthy. If you think he'll be back with a vengeance and not reinjure himself, he's worth the 2d rounder to keep him. If not, go with Fitz, he'll likely score close to a healthy Palmer. McGahee is nowhere near worth it.

259
by Minsane (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 11:16am

#257- I think it depends more on how many teams are in your league, and how many players you start at each position. E.g., if it's a 12 team, 1 QB, 3 WR league, I'd say get Fitzgerald. If it's 2 RB, 1 flex, I'd consider McGahee.

I personally think that Palmer has too many ??? to keep in most leagues. Given the depth at QB (you can probably get a Plummer/Vick combo while essentially punting on QB, thereby stacking your RBs and WRs), I just can't see keeping a QB unless you think he's going to be considerably better than the best unkept QB (Manning, maybe Hasselbeck, maybe Brady, and maybe Palmer, depending on your confidence in his ability to come back strong).

end of the day, i probably don't think Palmer fits that criterion. Projections, certainly ones like KUBIAK based largely or entirely on statistics, are obviously going to be less reliable for a player like Palmer coming back from injury.

Finally, even if you are highly confident that Palmer will be a beast this year, you still need to take into account his likely draft position. I'd just consider thinking about what other folks are doing. Will Palmer be available in the 1st round to you? What other QBs are being kept? I know in my 16 team, 1 QB, 2 RB, 2 WR league with 2 keepers, Palmer is NOT being kept, and my mocks so far (conducted with other owners) have him slipping to the late 1st or early 2nd rounds, which is to say that people are not that high on him. Unless you have the 1st or 2nd overall pick, I think Fitz is definitely not available to you, and McGahee would probably end up going early in most 2 keeper leagues as well. I think, based on what I've seen so far, that Palmer will slip a bit.

260
by B Nelly (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 1:15pm

Keeping Palmer

Fnor and Minsane...those are good thoughts on Palmer and I have had many of the same. Our league is 12 team 1QB, 2RB, 3WR, 1TE. Fnor mentioned that Palmer and Fitz would likely score the same, but in my league Palmer outscores him by a 100 points and even with his stellar year last year Fitz scored about the same as Delhomme. Palmer and Fitz do have a similar FPOB.

I am confident that Palmer will be back this year and his performance isn't really the issue for me. I'm guessing that this year he will be around the same stats (maybe slightly lower) stats he had last year. I also believe he will be at least on the same level with Manning in the years after. I guess it is the long term that I like Palmer even more.

Those things said his ADP this year makes me believe I could let him go and get him or even Hasselbeck a round or two later as Peyton is likely the only QB being kept. I generally believe you should wait on a QB...I just need to follow my head and not get attached to Palmer.

261
by warnpeace14 (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 1:36pm

I'm curious about what was the determining factors that Addai is projected to finish so much higher than Rhodes in the Kubiak's. I've heard many arguments both ways, so I'm interested to hear the main reason from the big guns.

Also thanks for the reply in #248.

262
by admin :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 1:52pm

Please see note on front page regarding e-mail problems.

263
by Pepper (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 2:04pm

WOW! How could you rate Mushin Muhammad so high after you RIP him HARD in your WR Profile section?!?!? 17th OVERALL among WR's!!!??? NO FRICKIN WAY!!!!

Roddy White?!?! 923yds? 6Tds? Biiiiig Stretch!!! VICK hasn't thrown for 18 TD's in his career, much less 3000 yds passing as you are projecting. He hasn't played a full 16 game season since he came in the league!

Another MYSTERY in your Projections...DEION BRANCH RANKED 11th among WR's?!?!!? The man is holding OUT if you haven't noticed.

So you would recommend based on your projections that I take White/Muhammad AND Branch before...

Hines WARD
T.J.HOUSHMANDZADEH
Anquan BOLDIN
Derek MASON
Javon WALKER

aaaaah, no thanks.

Guess that is why you give me the power to change the projections myself in the spreadsheet...and I THANK YOU for that. LOL. My draft is Friday evening, I'll let you know when your 'ELITE 3' went in the draft.

264
by Fnor (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 2:30pm

Muhsin Mohammed is really the only decent target in Chicago. The rest of the WRs are quite terrible. He'll score their TDs.

As for Branch, I don't think anyone really believes he'll not play. And if he does, he's going to be (deja vu) the only decent target for a GOOD QB in NE.

265
by zlionsfan (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 2:31pm

You're right, Pepper. Never mind the system. They should clearly be adjusting the projections to whatever you think they should be. Make sure to point out how stupid the projections were at the end of the season, too. After all, everyone else's projections are good.

By the way, for anyone who's still having problems generating their own KUBIAK scores - don't add any columns to the Projections page. The code doesn't like that. I found out the hard way ...

266
by Gil (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 4:32pm

Under my scoring system (which does have 6 pt passing TDs) KUBIAK has QBs ranked very high, much higher than other ranking.

Hasselbeck is by far the highest rated player as I approach my 2nd pick in our extended e-mail draft. Should I jump on him or how long should I try and let him slide?

267
by Pepper (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 4:34pm

I'm not going to have to wait till the end of the season, I will be letting you know at week 8. You lay to much trust into one source...tunnel vision.

Thanks for the tip about the spreadsheet.

268
by warnpeace14 (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 4:47pm

@Pepper...

The key is to not draft Mushin ahead of Anquan Boldin, but rather knowing that Mushin (according to this system) could well surpass Boldin (or others that you mentioned) is could be extremely useful if Mushin is projected to go 26th or something that you should look to grab him in the 22-24 range.. that's what getting value is all about.

269
by dave S (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 5:16pm

Have there been any side-by-side comparisons of Kubiak's to footballguys' projections? Any links to atricle is appreciated.

270
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 5:50pm

Gil, the question is this: if you don't take Hasselback here, what QBs are likely to be around at your next pick? If you do take Hasselback, who's your next RB and WR likely to be?

271
by NP (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 9:40pm

Anyone know where I can find the 2006 defensive projections for each team's Run defense and Pass defense? Would be a great help for figuring out the weak run/pass defenses for the playoffs.

I purchased both the Kubiak and the Pro Football Prospectus 2006 and haven't found the kind of numbers that are listed in the defensive stats like:

http://www.footballoutsiders.com/stats/teamdef.php

If you have link the the 2006 numbers or a page number in the Prospectus that would be very helpful!

TIA

272
by Gil (not verified) :: Wed, 08/23/2006 - 9:47pm

My next pick is #19, and then I have #30. Most lists I see have Hasselbeck going later than 30, but I'm not convinced here or Brady will still be there. KUBIAK shows a big drop off after these two, and I beleive that to be the case. Hasselbeck and Brady are 1-2 on my list in terms of Value over Baseline, by a wide margin. I am unsure if I should pass in hopes one will still be there at 30 or if I should grab one of them now.

Also, Clinton Portis is still available at #19. Any thoughts on that? He is the top RB available according to KUBIAK.

273
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 1:15am

From my experience, midway through round three people are either taking their second RB or, if they've done that already, a stud-level WR. I'd go Portis here, and assume that Brady will be there in r3. Probably Hasselback too.

274
by Mark (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 1:49am

This year, I would wait on my #2 RB.. lots of late sleepers that could do some damage. Getter to grab a primary WR first:
Fantasy Wide Receivers | GreatSportsNews.com

275
by Minsane (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 11:36am

#272 Portis here is a no brainer. Question: what do you guys think of Chester Taylor? Both for this year and as a keeper.

276
by turkstock (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 2:04pm

2 things to ask as I have purchased the book but not the projections on the web site.
1.Are the KUBIAK projections in the book the same as on the web site.

2. Because there is no mention of Mike Bell in the book, would it be possible for his projection to be posted here?
thanks

277
by NoJo (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 2:17pm

Okay, keeper question. I'm in a league where we have 2 keepers, and by keeping a player, we forfeit the pick in the round in which the player was originally drafted. No limit on how many years players are kept.

I may have an opportunity to acquire either Tiki Barber or Clint Portis. Probably same price for both. I'm trying to decide which I want.

Pros for Barber:
- I expect a better performance this year and perhaps next. He's probably a slightly better RB.
- he's not hurt right now.

Pros for Portis:
- he'll cost me a 10th rounder to keep in the future (that's when he was drafted by the guy I'd trade with). Barber would cost me a 1st rounder.
- he's a lot younger.

I'm thinking that Portis is the better option. Anyone have thoughts?

278
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 3:00pm

Turk, if you want things updated after publication, you have to pay for it, unless this site's owners decide otherwise. I'm not about to assist in stealing money from them. (And the answer to your first question is 'not anymore'.)

279
by Fnor (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 3:57pm

#275: I like him for this year (he's on my team as my #2, if you scroll up) but I would be iffy labelling him as a keeper, given he's going into a completely different situation.

#277: Portis. At a 10th round, even if he screws up you'll have room to hedge your bets (or perhaps get a nice bonus). I'm not high on Jersey/A's offence this year, and Barber in particular is looking pretty old.

280
by admin :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 4:05pm

Re: 276/278. Thanks for sticking up for us, Adam B.! Yes, the way it works is that the KUBIAK updates are a separate product. The reason is not the updates themselves, but the work that went into making the spreadsheet customizable to your league, and building the store functionality.

However, since the Denver running game is so darn important, and as an enticement to get people to buy the KUBIAK spreadsheet, and because I just upped Mike Bell's projection even further, I'll share the current projections for the Denver running backs.

There is every indication that Shanahan is not blowing smoke here, and Mike Bell is going to be in the role Mike Anderson played last year, and Ron Dayne was supposed to play. Our friend Russ Lande of GMJr.com actually had Bell (9th) rated higher than DeAngelo Williams (10th) in his draft guide, so Bell was on people's radar screens despite going undrafted. In fact, today for the first time I slightly reduced Tatum Bell as well to make room for more Mike Bell carries. Like all our playing time estimates, this is a subjective guess -- all the statistical regression in the world can't psychoanalyze Mike Shanahan.

(BTW, this is the answer to the question about Addai and Rhodes above -- it is a subjective playing time estimate. The hard projection is the yards/carry and TD/carry stuff.)

Anyway, the current projections:

Mike Bell: 234 carries, 1012 yd, 8 TD
Tatum Bell: 200 carries, 949 yd, 7 TD
Ron Dayne: 74 carries, 310 yd, 3 TD

(and a little bit of receiving for each one)

The answer to comment 277 is clearly Portis. Think age.

As far as Gil's league, it makes sense to take quarterbacks MUCH earlier in a league where passing touchdowns have equal value to rushing touchdowns. Also, Michael Vick becomes FAR less valuable in those leagues, heh heh.

281
by turkstock (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 5:26pm

Thanks for your post Aaron, I figure it wouldn't hurt to ask. I think paying for the publication (16$) and then the update(20$) may be a larger investment than I am looking at. Can you throw out a few names that KUBIAK hit last season?
thanks again

282
by Towwb (not verified) :: Thu, 08/24/2006 - 9:48pm

3/10, 16-round snake.

QB: Hasselbeck, Plummer
RB: Alexander, Cadillac, Gore, Morency
WR: Branch, Houshmandzadeh, Driver, Burleson, White, Wilford
TE: Stevens, Hilton
K: Elam
D: ATL

A little light on receivers and more Seahawks than I realized at first, but I'm otherwise happy about it.

283
by Wanker79 (not verified) :: Fri, 08/25/2006 - 1:07pm

Re: 272

I'm probably higher on Chester Taylor than I should be. I have him as the 15th RB (23rd overall). That's moreso because I'm down on alot of the guys I have below him (health concerns, RBBC, promising backup eating touches, etc...), rather than because I think he'll be that good. I have him ahead of the Denver, Chicago, New Orleans, and Indy RBBCs. I don't think Julius Jones, DeShaun Foster, or Corey Dillon are going to be able to stay healthy, and thier backups (Marion Barber, DeAngelo Williams, and Laurence Maroney) will probably end up stealing carries from them anyway. And I think Bettis' retirement and Duckett's trade are going to have a negative effect on both Dunn and Parker.

As for his keeper potential, I wouldn't be so positive. Like I said, I have him ranked so high because of doubts in the other guys, not because I think he's a stud in the making.

284
by Zac (not verified) :: Fri, 08/25/2006 - 8:34pm

Re: 283. You think Duckett's trade is going to have a negative effect on Dunn?

285
by jc (not verified) :: Sat, 08/26/2006 - 12:55pm

I am entering my first fantasy league and wanted to make sure that my math is correct. I am using the book to estimate points per game for QB with the following scoring system:
1 point per 50 yards thrown
6 points per passing TD
-2 per Int
6 points per Rushing TD
1 point per 10 rush yards

Under this system I have Miahael Vick ranked 4th overall, just ahead of Palmer. Under this system is he really this valuable?

286
by Jim Crist (not verified) :: Sat, 08/26/2006 - 1:36pm

First, a special thanks to Aaron. I just recently discovered FO, bought their great book (PFP) and wanted to get the KUBIAK spreadsheet before my draft, which is tomorrow. Aaron helped me get the spreadsheet using my credit card via Amazon to avoid a Paypal delay problem. Great Service!

My KUBIAK projections make alot of sense to me and I tend to trust the numbers rather than sleeper hype, rookie hype, etc. But, if I trust KUBIAK, it looks like I'll have Vick as my QB1?!? I'm in a 10 team league, and I'm planning to take my QB1 later than most other people. Our scoring system is 1pt for 50 yds passing, 1pt for 20 yds rushing, 1pt for 10 yds receiving, and 6pts for all TDs. KUBIAK has Vick ranked 6th best QB. Last year using the same scoring system, he was 11th. I read up on Vick in the PFP and it wasn't a glowing report. Do you really think Vick's gonna step it up this year?

I'm guessing Manning, Brady, Palmer, Hasselbeck, McNabb, Manning, and Culpepper will be already gone. I guess I should take Delhomme (175pts) first, 'cuz he'll be gone before Vick (201pts). The other alternative is to try for one of the top 4 QBs, 'cuz there's a big FP dropoff between Brady (230pts) and McNabb (205pts). Can I get some feedback on this??? Thanks!!!

287
by admin :: Sat, 08/26/2006 - 2:09pm

People don't seem to understand that in fantasy football, you don't lose points when Vick bounces the ball five yards in front of his receiver, or takes a sack. Under almost any league setup, Vick's rushing yards are far more valuable in fantasy football than they are in real football. Especially in a league where a rushing yard is worth FIVE TIMES as much as a passing yard. And if you have already given up on getting Manning, Hasselbeck, or Brady, there's honestly not much difference between the other quarterbacks, except that Palmer will be better yet has a much higher chance of missing time. Just be aware that if you take Vick, you need a good backup for when he is inevitably injured for a game or two later in the year.

288
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Sat, 08/26/2006 - 3:25pm

In a league in which it's 1pt/10y rushing versus 1pt/50y passing, quarterbacks aren't nearly as important as in traditional leagues where it's 20-25 yards per QB point. But, yeah, that diminution of passing yardage makes running QBs (and not run-for-TD, but run-for-yardage) disproportionately valuable, compared to a league in which a Trent Green rises higher.

289
by Erik (not verified) :: Sat, 08/26/2006 - 7:16pm

Please rate my draft: 2 player keeper league

QB - Delhomme, Farve
RB - (E. James), T. Barber, W. Parker, C. Dillion, T. Bell
WR - (T. Holt), Housemanzadeh, J. Walker, M. Clayton, D. Bennett
TE - T. Gonzalas L.J. Smith
K - Wilkens
D - Pittsburgh

()= Kept players from last yeat

290
by Jon C (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 12:41pm

If, in theory, you had two top TEs (Say Antonio Gates and Todd Heap), and there was absolutely no market for Heap, what is the WR level that is comprable to Gates? I am short on WR, but need just one. What would be a fair 1 for 1 deal? Does one exist? Based on points over baseline, there is not, however I just need a WR who isnt Travis Taylor.

Isnt any reciever who is "Gates' points - Heap's points" better than Travis Taylor a good trade? I don't really worry about bettering other teams, as the other owners tend to be inept at trading and getting proper value.

291
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 12:42pm

Erik, unless you have to start 3 RB/1 WR weekly, I'd look seriously into dealing some of the former for more of the latter.

292
by matt (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 3:01pm

my draft is in a few hours...i've got the 4th overall pick and i seem to be really sold on ronnie brown. i think he's a low-risk, high reward guy playing in an offense that is much improved. i like mularkey as the coordinator, as we saw what his philosophy was when mcgahee was dominant in 2004. could somebody out there play devil's advocate and try to temper my enthusiasm for brown or at least make some arguments as to why i should draft someone else at 4?

293
by Jim Crist (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 4:19pm

How does Lelie's move to Atlanta affect Roddy White's and Michael Jenkin's numbers?

294
by Kyle (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 4:24pm

I have a question. I have five WR's:

Anquan Boldin
Joey Galloway
Javon Walker
Eddie Kennison
Deion Branch

There KUBIAK projections are very similiar, so I'm wonder which two should I start?

295
by Adam B. (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 5:06pm

Kyle: will depend on matchups to a decent extent, as the season goes on, but week one I always go with my studs, which'll be the first two listed. I'd have some nervousness about Galloway v BAL, but with Branch unsigned, Kennison v KC and Walker's role a little unclear, it feels like the best call.

Matt: I'd go for Tiki there, but I'm more of a fan of sure things than potential. I can't criticize that choice.

296
by Agassi\'s Hair (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 5:27pm

OK, I have 2 trade offers

1) Larry Johnson for Shaun Alexander

2) Larry Johnson for Steve Smith & Torry Holt

Which one should I pick, if any? Regular scoring except that you get a point for each reception.

The rest of my team

QB: Jake Plummer, Mike Vick
RB: Larry Johnson, Willis McGahee, Chester Taylor, Joseph Addai, Deangelo Williams
WR: Roy Williams, Drew Bennett, Deion Branch, Antonio Bryant, Santonio Holmes (probably will cut him since I need a defense)
TE: Antonio Gates, Kellen Winslow
K: Janikowski
DEF:?

297
by Towwb (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 5:31pm

292:

Of the RBs I've seen going in the first round, I think your best choices are either RJ, Ronnie, or Steven Jackson, in that order. The other choices are Tiki (old), Edge (bad line, strong passing game), Portis (injury questions), and LaMont Jordan (Raider). RJ's coming off back-to-back 1400-yard seasons and will turn 28 in October. Ronnie's close behind him in potential points. Jackson's less of a known quantity, but there are worse gambles than the St. Louis offense, even with a new coach.

298
by Marcumzilla (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 8:24pm

What's the best advise anyone has on correlating Kubiak projections with auction values, ideally with by league configurability (my auction league starts more players than most standard leagues)?

Also, a suggestion for the Kubiak spreadsheet for next year is allowing for return yard points to be configured as well, as that affects a few receivers values dramatically.

299
by Greenwell (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 9:33pm

2nd pick in a keeper league, Bush will go 1. Which of the following should I take at 2?

Chester Taylor, Joe Addai, Laurence Maroney (considering him because of the enormous upside). Others available are DeShaun Foster, Mike Bell, Tatum Bell, and Thomas Jones.

In general, not a huge fan of Addai, but he's got a great situation. Chester I view as a pretty good RB in a decent situation. And Maroney I view as a monster who's probably going to have to wade through RBBC issues for most or all of this year.

300
by Luke (not verified) :: Sun, 08/27/2006 - 11:36pm

Matt, go with Ronnie Brown. I'm convinced he's in for a monster year as well.