This thread is for in-game discussion of Sunday's two wild card games: Carolina-New York Giants and Pittsburgh-Cincinnati.
You can find discussion of the Saturday wild card games here.
Offensive line problems highlight the needs in the NFC North ... except in Chicago, which is kind of unsettling to think about.
Comments
Um, how is that NOT a touchdown?
As I was saying about reception rules...
Someone needs to tell Randel-El that he's bigger than the cornerback. If he just plows straight ahead, he gets the first down. Instead, he dances, then gets tackled short of the line.
I call that move the 'Keyshawn'.
So that's P.I on the Bengals, but not P.I on the Steelers on the previous possession? If one is, then both are.
weak weak call on Kaesviharn. You cannot call that if you don't call the pushoff on the previous series against houshmanzadeh
Perhaps bacause the ball came out? But now it is though...
oh no. Then they call a dodgy PI against the bungles. I hate it when the officials *@#$% up a good game.
I think the refs are just making it up as they go. This is really bizzare.
The old fat guy's got some moves left, hasn't he?
I love the bus.
TOUCHDOWN BUS
That's what happens when Pittsburgh gets the ball on the 5 against a mediocre run D.
And Bettis does what he's so good at. Cincy badly need a score on their next drive. 10 point swing in five minutes. The bleeding needs to stop.
if the refs call a bad game, but make poor calls evenly for both teams (although i'm not implying it right now), does that mean they called a good game?
i agree w/ you Fnor, even though we are rooting for opposite teams.
Nice how the TV keeps showing us Mr and Mrs Bus in the stands.
Ben now 143.75.
Just to respond to folks who were complaining about the WordPress error screen issues when our server load is overloaded:
We don't think it is a server space issue. We think it is a coding issue, related to the fact that the site was never expected to be anywhere near this popular. That's why you may have noticed some features like "most recently commented XP" and last comment/time on the front page disappear -- those features take a lot of server load. As for the money issue, everyone I hope understands that the first priority with the FOX money is making sure my family isn't scraping by anymore. But money can't solve the problem, and we've tried -- we have migrated servers to bigger and more expensive subscriptions numerous times this season and it has only slightly ameliorated the problem. Trust me, nobody is more frustrated when this happens than I am, and I really hope to have it all taken care of by next July.
NFL officials competing with MLB umpires for Worst Postseason Ever. And off to a strong start.
The Steelers got away with a big one on the Housh pass inbterference.
This is one of the worst officiated games I've seen in a while.
If you're gonna call it, be consistent. Thats a PI call on the bengals when it didnt get called on the steelers.
Earlier we had the late hit calls on the bengals when the steelers were hitting even later just a couple minutes before.
This is out of hand.
The difference on the PI calls was that in one, the CB looked at the ball before plowing into the receiver.
313: What about Palmer and Kitna?
Yes, Palmer, with his one pass.
Hah! Sack!
Re: 315, have we all forgotten the Alamo Bowl *already*? The Sun Belt has the title of Worst Postseason Refs sown up.
I was wondering when PIT was going to run the anti-IND defense
Anyone else think the NFL wants to save NE-Indy for the AFC Championship?
All sorts of time, running around, runs forward, whoops! Where's the ball?
Aaron Brooks worthy.
Kitna's been watching Boller
Hah!
Nice hands, Kitna!
Re 189:
Sorry PatsFan, I'm not sure I have enough predictive magic left to pull that off. :)
But damn, did I call that or what?
That looked like an end of half/game Hail Mary play.
Well, that play set a few records...
Re 320: I was talking about pro sports. Sorry I didn't make that clear.
while CIN moves backwards due to yellow hankies...
oh, and now the Kitna fumble...
CIN has not had a game this year when they lost the turnover battle. In Even turnover games, CIN is 0-3 against playoff teams, 3-0 against non-playoff teams (not counting weeks 16 & 17). I think they need at least a +2 to stay in the game.
OK, that Sony Stanford-Cal commercial was pretty good.
Wow. Worst. Fumble. Ever.
I really wish they would have shown the coverage downfield.
Wow!!!
TD!!!
As a Steeler's fan, I feel really badly about Palmer being out for his first playoff game. I really don't think it was a cheap-shot (just as I don't think Castillo's shot on Roethlisberger was cheap in the SD game), it just was unfortunate. Von Olehoffen is about as classy and fair of a player as you can get (especially for a D-End) and I'm sure he didn't want to see the QB for the opposing team out after the second snap.
Oh my god, what the hell...a trick play...sweet mericful crap!!!! Mularkey must have left a few pages from his playbook as he skulked out of town.
I agree that the officiating was bizarre...the Steelers are also going to have to improve the coverage on kickoffs. They're giving up gobs of field position.
The Steelers are going for the record: Most Different Players Throwing Passes In Redzone While Starting QB Is On Field For Every Snap, Playoff Game.
Throw the ball, Kitna!!!
Greatest play in NFL history back there.
Cincinnati lines up in a shotgun empty-set. Pittsburgh's defense has one lineman. Only the lineman and linebacker Haggans rush Kitna, who bobbles the snap, taking one second, then proceeds to run around looking for a receiver for TEN SECONDS, then loses his grip on the ball, and falls on it three seconds later.
End result: FOURTEEN SECONDS of clock, and a loss of four yards.
I don't think there will ever be another pass play that takes 14 seconds and ends in a sack.
Can we all agree that this crew shouldn't get anywhere near another playoff game this season?
When I played soccer, all I ever wanted from a ref was consistency (and an understanding of the rules). There's been no consistency from these officials whatever.
you've GOT to to something about your server
Vash,
Brady had a 14-second pass play last night that ended with him either getting pushed out of bounds or tackled, I don't remember.
Simms is having a good game, esp on the gadget TD play when he called out the open receiver before the pass was thrown
I love Randle-El, but he's got to start moving upfield when he 's returning a punt, his first move always seems to be 7 yards laterally. Move up the field, this isn't a dance-off.
Oh, and some analysis of the trick play for you bums, written in my horrible style...
-BEGIN USELESS DESCRIPTION OF PLAY-
Shotgun, 3 wide, Randle El flanking Roethlisberger to his right. Direct snap to Randle El, who fakes a run around right end, then throws the ball all the way across the field (backwards lateral). Roethlisberger throws the bomb to Cedric Wilson on the left side. Pittsburgh actually had two receivers on the left side: Ward 25 yards downfield, with a defender chasing him, and Wilson 40 yards downfield all alone.
--END USELESS DESCRIPTION OF PLAY--
----BEGIN IMPORTANT PART-----
This means that (1) Cincinnati's defense is way out of position, all on the right side because of the direct snap/run around end; (2) anyone with a chance to cover the deep receivers hesitates seeing that Roethlisberger has about 20 yards of open running room; (3) even if Wilson is somehow still covered perfectly (which would be a miracle), that leaves Ward wide open for 25 yards, with one blocker and one defender between him and the goal line.
Whoa. Bit of a hiccup on the NFL.com play-by-play. Pass first scored as thrown by ARE, then Jeff Reed, then finally Roethlisberger.
What is this Bruce Springsteen on Cold Case?? Up Next, Bob Dylan on CSI Miami, with Tony Orlando on a very special Pensacola:Wings of Gold.
Oh, for crying out loud. Would somebody please tackle Polamalu by his frickin' hair?
Alright, Polamalu is just an idiot. Heck of a talented guy, but sheesh, how dumb can you get?
Somewhat of a dangerous lateral, but not quite on the caliber of ARE's earlier this year because it was a long enough distance so the receiver could set up to catch it.
Randel-El is clearly a bad influence on this team.
Coaches may need to start fining players for foolish laterals
OK, this one's over, and I have to up for work in 7 hours. Goodnight.
OK, this one's over, and I have to get up for work in 7 hours. Goodnight.
Polamalu seems to be on a pattern of increasing anger over the season. He's started getting personal fouls, plus the occasional stupid play (the lateral).
they just mentioned palmer has torn acl AND mcl.
The Chin reminds Polamalu what happens when people lateral needlessly...ARE was disappeared: To Wit - 220 Yards before the Lateral in week 3. 220 yards over the next nine games...
If Ray Lewis retires, Polamalu will be the next "most hated" LB in the AFC North. He's damn good, "arrogant cocky", and at least he didn't murder anyone.
But yeah Devin, yank the hair!
Is it just me, or has Haynes somehow turned into a decent back the last few weeks?
I always thought he was a bust, but now even I'm kinda wondering.
Next Sat. night: Tom Brady vs Jake the Snake.
Maybe the Pats should go ahead & book their rooms in Indy now.
Vash, it's not just you. I've noticed Haynes playing better in the past few weeks as well.
B-Spec - He's a Safety. Though it's hard to tell sometimes.
Vash - Don't believe...Haynes has fooled me one too many times. He has flashes of being a good back with large splatterings of total idiocy.
#358: Indeed! Magic Beans.
Re:#356
Maybe if Polamalu was actually a linebacker that would be true.
Anyhow, if Joey Porter remains a Steeler, I'm sure he'll take over that title.
Heck, I'm a Steeler fan, and even I don't really like Porter...
RE 358:
Spoken like a true Joe Germaine fan.
RRP - my bad. he's just that *** good!
Is it just me, or was this a relatively boring wild card weekend?
well, Kitna was having a good game.
The word I would use to describe pittsburg's win is unconvincing. They knock Palmer out of the game early, get a 14 point turnaround from the officials in the 3rd quarter and resort to a flea-flicker (a great play, I admit) to eventually win by 14. Good luck in Indy.
B-Spec - No problem like I said, it's hard to tell.
I can't believe that there was a good Bill Cowher half-time adjustment...I'm still totally in shock...I mean drolling, stupid shock...you have to understand, this never happens.
I really feel bad for the Bengals fans. It sucks to lose the star of your team on the second play of the game. I do hope that he makes it back in time for camp and has a full recovery. Good season.
So... did Kitna make some money this weekend or what? Played ok despite the circumstances, so he showcased his ability to be an above-average QB to other teams, and with Palmer doing a mini-Culpepper impression, you know Cinci wants to sign someone who can start and knows the system.
Ben's passer rating was 148.7.
Had Cowher challenged the Randle El touchdown (which resulted in the long PI), Ben's passer rating would have been 156.25.
"Next Sat. night: Tom Brady vs Jake the Snake. Maybe the Pats should go ahead & book their rooms in Indy now."
Oh, no question. Remember what happened last time these two embarrassingly mismatched QBs met in Denver in Week 6? I mean, how could anybody give Denver half a chance at all?
Steeler fan here, but I think that PI penalty on the Bengals near the endzone was a break for them, since it stopped the Steelers from challenging the play. It looked to me like a clear TD For El, who only lost the ball after he'd been on the ground for a good while.
Anybody have some insight as to why Cinci stopped going no-huddle?
They moved the ball alarmingly well in the no-huddle, and Steeler fans will recall that Kitna led a bad Bengal team to a humiliating torching of the Steelers by going hurry-up a few years ago.
A few comments:
1)I agree with the announcer who said he thought both the Edell Shepard and ARE plays were TD catches.
2)Why did Kitna dump a 2-yard out off to Matt Schobel? You could see that pattern was going nowhere. They needed Kitna to make a play, not keep dumping off short passes like he did in the first half.
3)I always like the Peyton Manning Mastercard commercials when I see them, and I also enjoyed the "Lo Def" commercial.
Mikey (372) Kitna led a bad Bengal team to a humiliating torching of the Steelers by going hurry-up a few years ago.
That was 2001 - the one in "99-1-1" - but that was also in the days of Chad Scott & Co.
Let's take the archetypical running yardage and wins correlation that led Aaron to come up with DVOA in the first place, and apply it to Verron Haynes. In particular, the correlation between Verron Haynes rushing yardage and Steeler victories clearly indicates that Haynes should be the feature back and get 30 carries per game.
Finally, I have a feeling Indy was cheering for Pitt, and that Denver was rooting on the Bungles today.
375 - Let's not get carried away. This is the first year Verron hasn't been injured.
Israel, I know our secondary has improved immensely since then (and thank God for it), but still, why do you think Lewis ditched the no-huddle? I was relieved that they did. I just didn't really get it.
Oh, 3 road wins this week!
I've noticed a high correlation between Ben taking a knee and the Steelers winning games. Clearly Ken Whiz needs to call more kneeldowns!
Another thought on the Steelers secondary.
Kitna did an awful lot of running around in the backfield with not much pass rush and I don't think it was all "happy feet." Coverage must have been excellent.
To those wondering why CIN dropped the no-huddle, I don't claim to be the grey matter in Marvin's head, but here's my guess:
w/ Kitna, CIN had less chance to score compared to PIT offense, so it became a 100% ball control game, keep the PIT offense off the field to keep the score low. But at the same time, I got the feeling that CIN stopped going to Rudi (i'm not checking the play-by-play)..
but that's my guess.
Someone earlier mentioned THE SYSTEM. By my count THE SYSTEM was 17 for 30 when it came to picking winners this year. If you just picked the team with the better record at that point in time (if their records are equal pick the home team) you would have been 19 for 30.
OK, Mikey got it, but Israel didn't. But he gets a mulligan because it's, what, 2:30 AM out there?
Re: Wordpress issues
I claim to be credible on this subject because I've done web development on cheap-ass servers.
The problem is, quite clearly, that your database cannot handle the requests being asked of it. It has nothing to do with server space. There are 3 things that could make this happen:
1) Your database has a limit on how many transaction per minute/hour it allows you. If you're hitting it to hard, it will cut you off. This is a problem I've had with cheap web hosts that host many website from one server -- they can't let any of those sites get too 'expensive' in terms of CPU usage so they limit DB queries.
2) You are actually maxing out the transactional capability of your database. Two things could cause this:
2a) FO is so awesome, your server can't handle it. The only solution is a better server. Note that 'better server' here does not mean 'more bandwidth.'
2b) Whoever wrote code for your website did was not efficient enough with their use of SQL queries. I'm not sure how deeply entwined WordPress is with your site, but I would be wary of it if it doing much here because (like many open source php apps) it may be very poorly written in terms of efficiency.
I wish I knew as much about football as I do computers... oh well, that's why I read the site. Hope you get your issues straightened out.
DGL - 3:30.
RE: 73
What’s with all the bad weather talk for Cincy anyway?
All the talk started with my post that the weather would be good in Cincy today. Starshatterer responded that weather is overrated, and it went on from there.
RE: 84
It usually doesn't work as well in the playoffs, for whatever reason, and it wasn't cold in New Jersey today.
RE: 86
He misread my post. Why don't you go back and look at it again?
The steelers are going nowhere - even if they got to play at home next week. They were on their way to getting blown out, when an ex-bengal "happened" to fall on Palmer. That was so obvious and intentional, it's ridiculous. I will enjoy the steelers getting destroyed at the RCA dome.
jake plummer welcome to the pro bowl!
#390
Hey Marvin. Want some cheese with that whine?
WE DEY!
Hooray! Apparently now two throws equals "blowout."
Can PIT beat IND? Not if they play like they did in the first half today. If they play like they did in the second and third quarters, they've got a good shot.
For the record, I have the Colts beating the steelers and then losing to the broncos in the AFCC. Batting 1.000 so far!
HERE WE GO STEELERS HERE WE GO!
RE: 112
Better than Chris Simms? Better than Tom Brady?
RE: 117
Exactly what I was thinking when the play happened.
RE: 3
Very impressive. Kudos.
RE: 139
I have the Bears taking that one.
I just realized something. If you link to a FO article, your post doesn't show up. At least that's what happened to me...
We want Indy! *clap clap clapclapclap*
Yes, I know, be careful what you wish for. I'll take my chances- hopefully the Steelers start throwing a little earlier next game.
Also, should I be happy or worried that Ben is working on a Dan Fouts beard?
I may not be the homer that Jason is, but, Adam, I think Fnor would agree that the PIT effort today is not enough against Indy. Especially the undisciplined Palomalu plays.
And at least we in Cincy have a unique WHO-DEY cheer, unlike the monotonous ...
Here we go {enter flavor-of-the-week} here we go.
sorry - Fnor already *did* say that!
#390: Yeah. Cause if a DL wanted to knock a QB out of the game, he'd do it by getting blocked down to the ground and rolling into the QB's leg. That's a lot more reliable than, say, hitting him.
I fully understand that if the Steelers want to beat Indy (or really anyone for that matter) they've got to play a better game than they did today for a full 60 minutes (not just 30 minutes like today)........
But.......
1. I just wanted to beat Cincy.
2. I can accept a loss to Indy (at Indy) more than I can accept a loss to Cincy.
3. Keeping in mind #'s 1 and 2 I am fully psyched about winning todays game.
4. WE DEY!!!!!!!!!!!
5. #24 covered #85 in 2005 (and 2006).
392: Adam, do you know where I can get one of those shirts?
#400...yeah the knee already with a brace on it and if you actually saw the replay, it's pretty tough to "get blocked into" the opposite direction that the OL is pushing you. In any event, the Steelers are over-rated...Cowher said they are resilient, a bunch of sandbags are resilient too.
The only place I saw those shirts for sale was along the city streets of Pittsburghs North Side before and after games.
I'm kicking myself right now for not buying one!
#398, I'm not a homer, but am a bears fan. Hey steelers fans, enjoy one quarter in the divisional playoffs before getting back to your weekend cow milking.
Have the steelers even beaten a good team this year? Ok, the chargers in san diego and the bears without about 6 starters playing? Hey, don't give up after the Colts win by 30, the pirates might be .500 this year!
405.
Weekend cow milking? Coming from a Bears fan? Come on man. I've been to Illinois. You shouldn't be saying that type of stuff.
#406- Well, they beat your Bengals twice...
I wasn't a big fan of the Figurative Metaphors commercials at first, but the recent one is brilliant.
"I'm the director."
"Why can't I be the director?"
#403: "Guys were infuriated," (Cincinnati) right tackle Willie Anderson said. "But I know him. He's not a dirty player. His momentum just kept him going into Carson. It wasn't a dirty play."
"They had every right to be upset. They lost their best player," (von Oelhoffen) said. "I hope Carson gets better. My apologies to him and his family. I was worried about Carson. That kid deserved to play this game."
Jeffri Chadiha: "The Bengals didn't think Steelers defensive tackle Kimo von Oelhoffen delivered a cheap shot on the play that knocked Palmer out of the game. Since von Oelhoffen is a former Bengal, several players vouched for his character."
Wow, this guy is pissed.
You know, when a defensive lineman falls toward the quarterback, he's definitely able to choose what direction he hits him, and his concern for Palmer after the hit MUST have been an act.
And damn, I need to find one of those We Dey! shirts. Somewhere. Must. Find.
For the record: I can' take many more games like this.
Every game from here on out better be a blow out in some form......
Hopefully for the Steelers........
I wonder what Eric Steinbach thought of the play, since Willie had his back to the play and Steinbach was the one blocking a player into his quarterback. Regardless, the Steelers made sure the Colts will make the AFC championship, since they avoid the Pats.
Click my name for one final shout out to Cincy.......
Cincinnati S.U.C.K.S!
Poor Venus Flytrap!
Although if Bailey needs some comforting she is always welcome at my place.........
As a steelers fan living in Chicago, I am very disappointed at how this thread turned out.
And now, bed.
Re #400
Yeah, it is more reliable. Rolling up on a planted leg is a much easier way to put someone out than hitting them up high.
Does anyone have video of this? I'm really sorry for the Bengals fans, it sucks that it went down that way. I know you guys haven't watched a lot of playoff football, but it's still a contact sport in the post season. I'm not impressed with the win, but I'll take it.
PS. To the Bears fan...way to go 1-3 vs. the AFC North. Good luck with the Panthers. Love the excuse on the loss to the Steelers. 6 Starters? Try 3...Brown, Harris, Metcalf...if you have more, I'd love to hear it.
Kimo definitely regretted what happened to Carson Palmer, and that wasn't a late hit. Kimo was visibly upset after what happened, and it wasn't even his fault.
It sure looked to me like Kimo dove right at Plamer's leg. It also looked to me like he was looking at the leg too, so I asume he didn't know the ball was being thrown right then. Even if it was there was no way for hi to stop mid fall/dive, and its also not illegal to hit the QB 1/8 sec after he gets rid of the ball. Finally, from the angle on the NFL recap film it sure looked like just a plain old everyday tackle attempt gone bad, nothing cheap about it at all.
I have seen lots of cheap plays, this was not one of them.
RE: 225
I will never understand why, when the defense sees the QB audible against the blitz, the defense continues the blitz. That’s like asking to give up a big play.
Exactly! The whole idea of a blitz is the element of surprise. If the offense knows when and where the blitz is coming from, the defense is screwed. When a blitz gets picked up, you can usually smell the long bomb coming.
Re: Spotty officiating and "Down by Contact"
Officiating has been spotty all season, and people have been complaining about "down by contact" rule all season long.
The players will fight for the ball until someone is clearly down. I bet this has happened 20 times this year... who got injured from it?!
The ACL and MCL tears on Palmer were clean, which means the surgery will be relatively simple, as reconstructive knee surgeries go.
There is no way in hell he'll be ready in July, or even close to that. I don't even think he'll be 100% when the season starts.
Well after that bizarre game, the Steelers-Bengals rivalry lives to be settled another year. What was supposed to be the decisive victory for one of the two teams ended up as a bunch of question marks.
393
it was one run, and one throw. that obviously determines blowout. sheesh, i thought you would know that
So... the "magic number" for RB fatigue that's usually batted around is 370 carries.
Counting regular season and playoffs, Tiki Barber had... exactly 370 carries.
Oof. Can we get one more good year out of him, or are the wheels of decline in motion already? Was the early exit just enough to keep him in form for one more season (therefore providing what little silver lining we can get out of this debacle), or are we doomed? Nervous minds want to know...
Eric Steinbach kind of pushed Kimo. It definitely wasn't his fault.
Re: #419 THANK YOU :)
He was clearly trying to tackle the QB. That's his job. The whistle hadn't blown and he doesn't have a TV in his helmet showing him that the ball was thrown. His field of view consisted of:Palmer's (upright) leggrass
#417: if you have more, I’d love to hear it.
Grossman?
Re #422: I've heard of collegiate receivers (Todd Blythe of Iowa State, if you care) coming back from a "clean" ACL tear that occured in spring practice in time for the next season. Less than six months turnaround. Now, that's just an ACL, not ACL and MCL, but he's also a receiver, meaning he runs a lot more than a QB. I think Palmer can make it back for the start of next season if he really throws himself into his rehab. We'll see.
Re: 417, what about Rex Grossman dork?
I know Bengals fans must be disappointed, but clearly it was just a case of bad luck in a contact sport. I think that Kimo could have avoided him, but it his job to disrupt the QB. Predictions: Bears by 6, Broncos by 13, Seahawks by 3, Colts by 21
Oh yeah, on the Randle El throw to Roethlisberger, it almost got blocked by a Bungle. It was pretty close. Imagine if Pittsburgh hadn't gotten that TD.
RE: 383
It's primarily used for picking ATS, not straight up. What if there is a year where all the cold-weather team suck? Then obviously the record would be bad. The idea is to pick the home team in December cold-weather games (when the opponent is a warm weather/dome team).
RE: 383
It's primarily used for picking ATS, not straight up. What if there is a year where all the cold-weather team suck? Then obviously the record would be bad. The idea is to pick the home team in December cold-weather games (when the opponent is a warm weather/dome team).
I just got a very long error message "Warning..." Not the usual Wordpress error.
Oops, double post. Sorry.
Anyway, Carson Palmer said today that he doesn't think Kimo did anything dirty, if that means anything.
Personally, I find it astonishing that anyone would.
Re 435 Sid
One steroid-pumped word:
Romanowski.
Unfortunately, that might open a new can of worms on this thread... :^\
#434 - If you know of a place that has historical odds for games I'll count up how THE SYSTEM did ATS.
Astonished that anyone would believe it was a dirty play? Puh-leeze, what is the economic value of another playoff game worth to the franchise and city - if you could take out one player on the bengals to assure victory, who would it be? Duh. Falling on his knee - the only thing that Palmer's had a major injury on in his career is a coincidence? I'm not so sure. Conspiracy theorists would say Kimo was the best, since no one would suspect a nice guy/ex-bengal of doing it. Ha
Bill, #438:
Puh-leeze, what is the economic value of another playoff game worth to the franchise and city - if you could take out one player on the bengals to assure victory, who would it be?
Now I'm no expert, but considering that there was no way to have a playoff game in Pittsburgh, I'd wager the worth of the next game to the city is around nil. But if your conspiracy theory makes you sleep better at night, knock yourself out.
RE: 437
I tracked it for a while on the actual thread.
http://www.footballoutsiders.com/ramblings.php?p=98&cat=1
As for historical odds:
There must be sites that have it, and if I wasn't going to sleep now, I'd go and find a site that has historical odds.
It's a small sample size every season, because it only applies in the last few weeks of the regular season (which are usually extremely difficult to predict anyway, due to the meaningless games).
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