Writers of Pro Football Prospectus 2008

Game Discussion: KC-IND Wild Card

This thread is for discussion of action on the field before, during, and after the first-round playoff game between Kansas City and Indianapolis. Each game this year will get its own discussion thread, so please discuss the other games in those specific threads.


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Comments

301
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:45pm

296: that's why they drafted Addai, to take some carries so Rhodes would be fresh for the playoffs.

301
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:45pm

Hey, pbp guy, there's a difference between "happy feet" and moving in the pocket!

Did Chris Collinsworth just say that Peyton would be good at DDR?

303
by Harris (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:45pm

Re# 294

I was thinking more Tom Waddle, or maybe Lance Alworth.

304
by Kal (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:46pm

What happened to Addai? I just have the pbp cast.

305
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:47pm

That Diet Pepsi commercial would be better with Godzilla footage mixed in.

306
by ugh (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:47pm

I think Collinsworth knows what Dance Dance Revolution is, but didn't want to admit it, so he went with the "Ever see that arcade game where you move your feet around..."

307
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:47pm

I must admit, I like the Rock-em Sock-em commercial.

308
by LMSx (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:47pm

The new Diet Pepsi ad with overdubbed player dialogue is just horrible. I hope it's one and done in the playoffs.

309
by eagletom (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:47pm

DDR? that's not an image I need...

310
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:48pm

Trent Green needs to dye his hair. The only QBs who should be that gray are Favre's backups.

311
by stan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:49pm

240 and 261,

Listening to the announcers, you would think he was playing like complete crap. If Harrison was wrong on the 2 INTs like Collinsworth said (and we don't know, Collinsworth is hardly authoritative as a source), then he's basically made one bad throw. He's made some really outstanding ones.

So what do they think is "in his head"? One bad throw?!!!

312
by Kuato (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:49pm

Re 304: Addai has cramps.

313
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:49pm

I don't think that any of the NFL-themed Diet Pepsi commercials have been that good.

314
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:49pm

I bet that linemen DDRing would be quite the amazing site to see. They have very quick feet.

315
by Darrel Michaud (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:50pm

They finally go to Reggie Wayne after targetting Harrison all night.

316
by Kal (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:50pm

Well, it appears to be out of his head, I guess. Finally, a TD pass by Manning.

316
by Pat on the back (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:50pm

This is why you don't go for 2 before. Right now, down by 15 (2 Tds). XP it is still 2 tds, but a missed 2 pointer would have made it a 3 possession game (17 points). Don't go for the 2 until you absolutely have to because time is a factor.

318
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:50pm

Bob Sanders for MVP

319
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:51pm

If the Chiefs manage to score a TD, Herm will go for 2.

320
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:53pm

I think KC should admit they're not going to win today, and just start running LJ into the line thrice every possession. See if they can get next year's inevitable injury to occur today, so he has all offseason to recover.

321
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:53pm

You think if Gonzalez hadn't been relegated to a blocker in the first half, the Chiefs might have a better chance? Jez, Herm Edwards is dumb.

322
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:55pm

Whoa, who the &$*@ is that? Someone other than Johnson running for the Chiefs?

323
by Duff Soviet Union (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:55pm

#233, I have his right ACL.

324
by stan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:55pm

317.

Absolutely right. Since going for two works less than half the time, it is a desperation move. You only do it when you get far enough into the fourth Q that you can predict what scores you are going to need. Obviously, the Chiefs were not yet in desperation mode when they chose to go.

325
by jonnyblazin (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:55pm

Hurry the f*ck up!

326
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:56pm

Why would anyone ever use Tony Gonzalez as a blocker? If you want to have a passing play with six blockers, let Kris Wilson block and keep Gonzalez on a route. If you want eight blockers, let Wilson, Dunn, and LJ block, and have Kennison and Gonzalez be the only route-runners.

I don't understand why you'd ever want one of your team's best two receivers to block on a pass play.

327
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:56pm

I repeat. Bob Sanders for MVP

328
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:57pm

Peyton's defense seems to continue to let him down this game...

329
by Harris (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:57pm

Who said the Chiefs wouldn't end the game +3 in turnovers?

330
by John (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:57pm

Insightful commentary, guys. No mention of the fact that Green was leveled as he threw the ball.

331
by James, London (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:57pm

Nice catch by Saunders, but it was a terrible throw. Barring a pick-6 on this Colts drive, Game over

332
by Pat on the back (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:58pm

Although gonzalez is a very good blocker. that is why he was far and away the best TE in football for about 5 years.

333
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:58pm

I think that was McFarland, wasn't it.

The announcers didn't help at all.

334
by dave (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 8:58pm

Despite being double covered I blame eddie kennison for not sight adjusting to that 10-yard underthrow by Green .. I'm sure you do too anger rising.

335
by Alex Mackenzie (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:00pm

...good, I was beginning to forget whose country this is

336
by Kuato (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:00pm

As someone that lives in Japan, I would love to see a team of 350 pound O-Linemen facing off against all the under 5' Japanese chicks that f-ing own Dance Dance Revolution in the arcades.

337
by Kal (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:01pm

Apparently, the Colts weren't who we thought they were.

338
by Anger...rising (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:02pm

Dave, until you go ahead and refute the notion that four of Green's five first half incompletions were drops, I'm going to ask you to put the keyboard away.

339
by stan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:03pm

NBC just showed Green with his head down and a coach talking to him. Anyone want to bet he was really looking at photos, but they cut out the photos from the shot to make it look like he's hanging his head?

340
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:03pm

OK, I throw this question out to the board? Who do you want as the cast of the Broadway thing of Grease? I think Gary Coleman has to be in there somewhere. Maybe the dude who played Squiggy. And of course, Anthony Hopkins. For the female case, just get some random strippers. Think NBC will go with my suggestions?

341
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:03pm

The wives always have it so rough.

342
by John (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:03pm

Not the family films.

343
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:04pm

little peyton wining to his mommy...classic.

344
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:04pm

peyton has thrown 3 picks (he has played well aside from those), and the Colts' run defense is tring to throw out the 'alleged'.
I can't remember a game that went so completely different from how it was supposed to go this year.
Is Bob Sanders really this good?

345
by Pat on the back (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:04pm

Would it be inappropiate if I made the comment that Tony Dungy always looks like a chemo patient?

346
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:05pm

whining, dammit.

347
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:05pm

I throw it back at you, and require you to only cast NFL players.

348
by princeton73 (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:05pm

Would it be inappropiate if I made the comment that Tony Dungy always looks like a chemo patient

yes, it would be

(inappropriate, but true)

349
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:05pm

345,

yes

350
by Rick (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:05pm

Well, Tony G was one of the many KC receivers who dropped passes. By my count, the first four passes by Green were all dropped, 2 by Kennison, one by Gonzalez, and one by Dante Hall.

That was one of the two problems killing the Chiefs. The second problem was that Tony Dungy approached the game as if it were a chess match, while Herm Edwards was playing checkers. The playcalling by KC was absolutely lousy. And once it became obvious that Indy was going to cheat against the run by stacking the box, run blitzing, etc., the Chiefs needed to make an adjustment and they simply didn't.

The failure to convert the Law pick for a TD was killer. I was in a sports bar and some nearby Colts fans were whupping it up after Green was stepped on by the guard and fell down on 3rd down, and then the kicker hit the upright. Yeah, Colts, great D there! I don't think I've ever seen such an inept display of offense against a mediocre defense in my life. (Hint to announcers: if a defense sucks against the run all season long, and then succeeds once in the playoffs, it's not because they finally decided to care. It's because the offense they are facing is inept. The Colts' run defense still sucks, guys.)

351
by Kal (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:06pm

Please actually go for it here. Please.

352
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:07pm

Free Dwight Freeny!

2.5 sacks in the regular season, 2 sacks and a fumble today.

353
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:07pm

Jordan Black just got roasted by Dwight Freeney on a bull rush. God, do the Chiefs miss Willie Roaf.

354
by eagletom (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:07pm

Now, this situation is what the Colts defense is built for...

355
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:07pm

UNLEASH THE HOUNDS

356
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:07pm

Hunter, how much do you actually have to do during a game? When you have one responsibility, and you only do it maybe twice a week, you have to do it right.

357
by James, London (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:07pm

A Dwight Freeney bull rush. It's all happening for the Colts tonight.

358
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:08pm

Why would you push him forward?

359
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:08pm

Trent Green's awesome clutchness gets the first down...

360
by Alex Mackenzie (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:08pm

Hah! Bennet got knocked across the first down line by a Colt.

361
by Kal (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:08pm

Okay, that was the weirdest PBP I've seen. There was a fumble on the punt, followed by three negative plays in a row? is that right? WTF?

362
by johnt (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:08pm

Jordan Black, you just got bull rushed by Dwight Freeney. You've got 40 pounds on him. Come on.

363
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:09pm

Schobal and Thomas are FIERCE

364
by ugh (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:09pm

3 sacks in 5 plays.

365
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:10pm

Great play by the Indy defender to push the receiver past the first down marker for the key 4th down conversion. Good job! Need to set up that last turnover.

366
by michael (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:10pm

Could this game put paid to the "Chiefs have a great O-line" swill? Minus Welbourn and Roaf and with Shields and Wegman aging, it's no longer so. The KC tackles are atrocious. LJ is truly a beast.

367
by John (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:10pm

It almost seemed like the Chiefs offense was waiting for the Colts to score a TD before they got started. Perhaps if the KC defense hadn't done such a good job of holding the Colts to field goals...

368
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:11pm

Why are the announcers talkng about the Colts defense giving them a lift against Baltimore next week?

369
by Alex Mackenzie (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:11pm

Hah, that totally wasn't Huard just now.

370
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:12pm

Think Huard will get put in for the final KC drive?

371
by Nathan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:12pm

DVOA without Bob Sanders = 50.3
DVOA with Bob Sanders = -27.8

All numbers made up. This is ourrr country.

372
by John (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:13pm

#356: Actually, Hunter holds for Vinatieri, and is the 3rd string quarterback, so punting isn't quite the only thing he does all week.

Has Sorgi taken a snap this year, other than the preseason?

373
by Derek (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:13pm

Is Dungy crying?

374
by jonnyblazin (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:14pm

This has to be the most pitiful offensive performance I've ever seen in a playoff game when you take into account how bad the Colts defense is.
This Colts are going to get blown off the line of scrimage on offense and defense vs the Ravens.

375
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:14pm

Good Lord, what a hit.

376
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:14pm

# 144

I am finally comfortable saying, "Yes, I laid four units on the Under."

377
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:14pm

I don't know who the hell this #56 guy is, but that was pretty sweet.

378
by Kuato (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:15pm

Hall got LEVELED!

379
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:15pm

And Green throws it into triple coverage...

380
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:17pm

Game. Over.

381
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:17pm

376,

congratulations.

382
by Yaguar (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:18pm

If the Colts can field a healthy Bethea/Sanders safety combination and draft a good linebacker or defensive tackle, they'll be very good next year.

383
by stan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:18pm

363.

I think it was Reid. He's been making those kind of plays all year.

384
by Kal (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:18pm

Well, so much for that +3 TO ratio.

I'm still shocked how insane the Colts played against the run.

385
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:18pm

Why does Herm Edwards look happy?

386
by Dan R. (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:19pm

What a joke. The Chiefs deserve everything they get.

387
by ugh (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:19pm

That was the weirdest pro football game I've seen all year.

388
by michael (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:19pm

As a Chiefs fan, let me say this: We should get used to it. This is the Herm Edwards method: An inconsistent regular season capped by an emotional outburst and a scrapping run to edge into the playoffs and then a loss when he is completely outcoached. That was pretty much the history in NY and there's no reason to think it will change now.

Dick Vermeil, you bastard!

389
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:19pm

429 total carries.

Was it worth it Herm?

390
by Joshua (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:20pm

And the Colts win another first round game in the dome...

391
by James, London (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:20pm

Herm ruined LJ for this? God the Chiefs offense were bad.

392
by johnt (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:20pm

Hey, I guess it was true - if the Colts held LJ under 150 yards they'd win!

393
by throughthelookingglass (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:24pm

I think that the only thing that would surprise me more than the Colts' run defense controlling a playoff game would be, uh, nothing actually.

Why do the Colts own the AFC West in the playoffs?

394
by Rick (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:26pm

The commentary about Bob Sanders in the first half was positively bizarre. At one point he jumped in on a tackle of a receiver when it was clear the CB was the one responsible for the tackle, and Collinsworthy couldn't shut up about how wonderful Sanders was. I guess piling on a tackle that's already happening requires talent.

395
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:27pm

347: OK, keeping in mind I haven't seen Grease in about 20 years and have no idea what any of the characters do...

Zuko (John Travolta): obviously, this needs to be Tiki Barber. He is clearly destined to be the real king of all media, and this would be his first step towards winning a long-deserved Tony.

Kenickie: Ummm.... let's go with Brett Favre. he doesn't get nearly enough time in front of the cameras now, and this would help alleviate his dangerous underexposure.

Sonny: Tom Brady, because he's dreamy and doesn't really love goats.

Sandy (Olivia Newton John): Kurt Warner's wife. She's hawt.

Rizzo: Nick Mangold's sister. She's not in the NFL yet, but someday...

Doody, Putzy, Frenchie: I'd go with Brady Quinn's sister, Bubby Brister's mom, and either someone from the Bettis family or Denise York.

This isn't nearly as entertaining as I hoped. Sorry.

396
by Kuato (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:27pm

I think the biggest difference in this game for the Colts D was the basic act of tackling. Most of the year they have been in position to make plays and just bounced off the runner. Today, the D got their hands on Larry or Tony and took them down almost everytime.

So the Colts again proved they can beat KC and Denver in the playoffs, now how about the rest of the teams in the AFC?

397
by ugh (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:27pm

And to top it all off, Herm Edwards will leave the stadium later tonight to discover his car has been stolen.

Nice job of the Chiefs' O-line just completely giving up at the end there. Green would have been better off just taking a knee four times.

398
by James, London (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:29pm

We in the UK are being treated to Nick Halling explaining that Dwight Freeney is a good run defender. Sky need to hire Mike Carlson. Tomorrow.

399
by Trogdor (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:30pm

I love this bit from Collinsworth postgame. "Edwards told me that if they were down a couple touchdowns in the 4th, it's over." Well, good to know the coach was surrendering preemptively! That attitude could've gotten him into Congress!

400
by Tom Kelso (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:34pm

That's true, Trogdor; it's also a more realistic assessment than we've heard out of the White House, so he's too smart to work there.

Great; now that Peyton's gotten his crappy game out of the way, we get to deal with them now. The moving vans are already circling the stadium.

401
by The Ninjalectual (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:37pm

Herm Edwards has engineered the most stubborn, inflexable and worst gameplan I have ever seen. I've played more creative 6 year olds on Madden. Each series went: failed run on first and second down, predictable pass on third and long. No trickery, play action or even misdirection in the entire first half. He finally pulls a few interesting plays out of the playbook in the third quarter, and scores a quick and efficient touchdown. Then it's back to good ol' boring and ordinary Herm-ball.

Obviously Herm does not study football too closely. What is the guy supposed to be good at doing?

402
by John (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:40pm

I feel like I'm watching Missile Defender with that table front graphic they use.

403
by Rick (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:42pm

Oooh - cool, somebody innappropriately injects politics into a FO discussion!

404
by Kyle W (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:42pm

398

I have never hated a sports analyist quite as much as I hate Nick Haling. However if Sky hire him then MNF will have no redeeming features as his coverage is the only thing that stops me from killing myself due to the American announcing team.

405
by The Ninjalectual (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:43pm

371: DVOA without Bob Sanders = 50.3
DVOA with Bob Sanders = -27.8

All numbers made up. This is ourrr country.

Hilarious!

406
by Mike (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:44pm

393: Superstitious Charger fans hate you.

407
by Ilanin (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:55pm

406 - Nah, you'll be fine. The breakdown is:
Dungy/Manning Colts vs. 4-3 team (Broncos, Chiefs) in the playoffs: 1.000
Dungy/Manning Colts vs. 3-4 team (Patriots, Steelers) in the playoffs: 0.000

408
by michael (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:55pm

One of the most frustrating things about LJ's 416 this year was the utter lack of imagination behind most of them. It's like Edwards thinks a stretch to the edge show excessive femininity or something. Can anyone give any sort of % on how many of LJ's runs were into the 1-2 gap?

409
by joel in providence (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 9:55pm

that game was just pooooo-poo. utterly bad game. i can't believe i saw so much bad football in one playoff game. some of those pickles thrown by manning and green were just awful. and the tackling was bad on both sides. neither team played efficient, precise football. very sloppy.

410
by joel in providence (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 10:01pm

James in London:
maybe sky can hire randy wakeman III and mike schweinberger from
"boston goals".

411
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 10:10pm

#409 I thought that Indy tackled very well.

411
by jebmak (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 10:10pm

#409 I thought that Indy tackled very well.

413
by Ilanin (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 10:10pm

408 - The Adjusted Line Yards page splits runs into "Left End", "Left Tackle", "Guard/Middle", "Right Tackle" and "Right End". 55% of the Chiefs' runs were "Guard/Middle". This was above average (49%), but below the Ravens, Browns, Bucs, Texans, Niners, Panthers, Jets and Jaguars.

414
by MDZ (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 10:14pm

I agree that the Colts tackled much better than they have all season. Nick Harper made several solo tackles to prevent a first down. Also, it seemed like Freeney held contain instead of running upfield wildly until the Chiefs had to pass. I don't know if he had a spin move all game, and the normal hole off left tackle for Colts opponents just wasn't there today.

415
by Ch V Kalyan (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 10:19pm

401: running RBs into the ground is HE's specality

416
by michael (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 10:31pm

#413

Thanks.

417
by Pat (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 11:37pm

I think the biggest difference in this game for the Colts D was the basic act of tackling. Most of the year they have been in position to make plays and just bounced off the runner. Today, the D got their hands on Larry or Tony and took them down almost everytime.

Actually, I think the bigger issue was that the Chiefs center and guards got no push against the Colts tackles. Given how easily the Colts tackles have been pushed by everyone else, that's just a damning assessment.

Most of the stuffed Johnson runs were easy tackles, as LJ was just running into a clogged line.

418
by Purds (not verified) :: Sat, 01/06/2007 - 11:39pm

Peyton Manning: all he does is win football games!

(Of course, I don't mean that, but as all the Peyton haters would rip into him if the Colts had lost a playoff game 55-54, I might as well enjoy their dumb logic--only the QB decides the outcome of a game--for one game).

He's a winner. He's not worried about the stats. He just wins, baby!

419
by Todd S. (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 1:54am

#16 That's a good effort. I don't agree that you demonstrated your conclusions effectively, (sample size, cherry-picking, proximate cause) but you did lay out an argument.

In the Steelers game, the Colts went with a weird game plan for blocking in the first half. The guards were coming outside to block ends and linebackers while the tackles were sliding over to the middle. It didn't work, and the offense was in an early hole because the defense gave up two early touchdowns. As far as I know, Manning doesn't make the line calls (Saturday does).

Basically, I think it's your opinion that Manning's ego gets in his way during the playoffs but not the regular season? It's an interesting opinion but I don't think that you (and here I mean you, COINFLIP, personally) can prove that assertion.

420
by stan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 1:55am

The Colt defense really changed their scheme today. The DEs started out playing run first and not running up the field. They regularly played 8 in the box on run downs. They even stunted some upfront. E.g. Booger swimming over a gap, running around the blocker and coming back to make the tackle.

Larry Johnson is not very good at bouncing a play or cutting back. Without a hole, he is a below average NFL RB. Big, strong and fast. Just doesn't have real good feet. Lacks lateral quickness.

421
by Todd S. (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 1:56am

In addition to all the other bizarre stuff in this game previously mentioned, the Colts coverage teams were solid, while Vinatieri had a kickoff go out of bounds and Hunter Smith dropped a snap on a punt. Lots of weird stuff.

And Ty Law...what is up with that?

422
by stan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 2:06am

16,

You obviously either didn't watch the games or don't know squat about football. If you watched the Chiefs today, that's what it looks like when an offensive line gets overwhelmed. That's what happened in each of the last 3 Colt playoff losses.

I'll give you a hint what to look for. If an offensive tackle on a power run gets driven straight back four yards, that's known as getting his ass kicked. It is very hard to have success running the ball when 2 or 3 of your offensive linemen are routinely getting their asses kicked.

Another hint -- when the Pats rushed only 3 defenders and got multiple sacks despite being blocked by five Colt linemen and a RB, that is also known as the O-line getting its collective ass kicked (or "protection problems").

There is very little in a playbook that Manning or any other QB can call that can make up for an offensive line that is getting physically abused on every play.

423
by Doomsday Device (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 2:30am

#242 - Crosby's better. And since this is FO, click the link for some statistical analysis why.

424
by michael (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 2:36am

stan,

All the lateral quickness in the world couldn't save LJ today. His tackles were getting pushed back into his lap. He's an excellent cutback runner and has exceptional feet, particularly for a man his size.

BTW, "without a hole", everyone's a "below average NFL back." For example, see James, Edgerrin

425
by stan (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 2:46am

424,

He couldn't do it college. And he still can't.

426
by Bobman (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 4:13am

Oh hey, what's up? Was there a game today? I was out of town having dinner with the Easter Bunny, Santa and at the next table Einstein and Anna Nicole Smith were discussing physics. SO I didn't have much time for football. Anything unusual happen? Did I mention the UFO that hit my car and abducted me...?

Well, if Indy's D can remember how to tackle for another week or two, Balt is in trouble. If Manning cannot remember what color shirts his teammates have on, not so much....

that wicked hit on Dante Hall was by reserve LB Tijuan Hagler, BTW. Sweet, eh? My 6 year-old was very happy to be wearing his Freeney Jersey today. Thanks, Santa.

427
by Rick (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 10:14am

You guys are talking about the offensive line being pushed back. What I saw in the first half was a lot of cheating on first and second down by the secondary to stop the run. Doesn't quite matter so much what the offensive line is doing when the CB is in the backfield within a half second of the handoff. That's not the O-line's fault, it's the fault of the play design.

Everybody knew that the Colts were vulnerable to draw plays. Why, then, didn't the Chiefs use them? They completely fed into the Colts' scheme. Run, run, pass allowed the Colts to cheat, cheat, and play pass protection/Freeney spin move. The key to beating the Colts is matching your runs against Freeney's spin moves and your passes against the Colts' cheating secondary.

428
by MDZ (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 11:27am

Rick, Freeney played the run the whole first half so he didn't use his spin move and leave a huge gap. Also, the secondary didn't cheat that much, Bob Sanders was an 8th man in the box, but the corners weren't constantly in the backfield. Harper made one nice tackle doing that, but it was also against the Chiefs big formation when the only receiver on his side of the field was Dunn. The Colts did run blitz alot, and as a result playing man coverage. It is perfectly logical for a CB to key on the backfield if he sees his man engage and block a defender. Also Booger McFarland had his best game as a Colt, and if I am to believe the Tampa fans, his best game in years.

429
by Dave Brude (not verified) :: Sun, 01/07/2007 - 6:45pm

The real problem was completely unimaginative playcalling on the part of the chiefs. They should have tried some play action passes early on. If for no other reason than to loosen up the indy defense.

430
by Bobman (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 3:47am

Looking forward, I just noticed that Baltimore's OL stats are none too immpressive and their up-the-gut stats are even lamer, which is good news for Indy's "we're not out of the woods yet" run D.

Now if Indy can only figure a way to get Jim Sorgi into the lineup.... I've never seen HIM throw three picks.

431
by smashmouth football (not verified) :: Mon, 01/08/2007 - 8:38pm

Re: 430

Looking forward, I just noticed that Baltimore’s OL stats are none too immpressive . . . ."

The Ravens didn't run the ball very well this year. However, they led the league in adjusted sack rate. I think that's a pretty impressive OL stat.

432
by Bobman (not verified) :: Tue, 01/09/2007 - 3:52am

431, Yup, that ASR is good and I suspect much credit goes to McNair (compared to the relatively challenged guys under center the past few years). Much like Indy being right up there in ASR thanks to Manning.

I also looked back at the last two games between the two teams (Indy won both, one in each stadium). The biggest difference now is probably McNair, but in 04 and again in 05, Manning had a rating in the mid-90s and was not sacked by the mighty Baltimore D. Edge ran in each game for about 70-90 yds, which would be great if they can get that production again from Addai/Rhodes. (Jamal ran for 160 in the 04 game and just 48 in 05). Indy would love to have another 48 day from Lewis, but that's not likely. 160? That would probably be fatal, since McNair won't turn it over like Boller did.

But in his 2 games vs Indy last year, McNair played pretty ordinarily and Tenn averaged under 7 pts per game. In 2004, he played 1 game vs Indy and had decent yardage, but no TDs and 1 INT plus 1 fumble, and they only scored 17 (with Chris Brown racking up 153 yards on the ground!). So McNair is a giant upgrade at QB compared to the Ravens' past few QBs, but he's struggled with Indy the past couple years and his teams have lost 5 straight to them.

As a Colt fan, I have hope.